
Matt Cassel is looking towards the playoffs. (Image: www.reuters.com)
With Tom Brady and his golden locks winning on Monday night against the Jets, that brought me to 12-4 on the week. Which makes me 115-78, that’s like a 60% win percentage. Hey, if you’ve been betting the moneyline on every single game this year – that means you’d be a winner! Not by much, but at least it’s not a losing record. Don’t worry, there will be a column at the end of the year highlighting all of my mistakes. Or at least the giant glowing ones. Like most of my playoff predictions at the beginning of the year.
So we enter Week 14 now. The Thursday night game is a staple, one that I constantly forget to watch. Scott Hanson of the NFL RedZone has unknowingly become my best friend in the whole wide world. If it wasn’t for the NFL RedZone, this column would not be possible. Yes, I’m totally marking out to the NFL RedZone, but c’mon – how else would I be able to see the big plays of every single game? Enough marking out, we should really get into the picks this week. There are some massive games this week. Games that would make Peter North question his manhood. So nuzzle your ass in your Lazy-Boy and get comfy (make sure you put a pillow in between the laptop and your balls) – here come the picks.
Featured Game:
Kansas City at San Diego Line: -7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
It was tough picking the featured game this week. Basically, when I do – this is the game that I’m saying will be the best game of the week. Most weekends, I’ve been pretty right on. Some haven’t turned out the way that I planned. For me, it’s most important for this column and the continuity of the universe that I get this one right. That being said, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the tip of every one’s tongue. In a division that in recent years has seen the Chargers on top, the Chiefs are on top with a two game lead over the Chargers. That’s why this game is so important for the Chiefs. A win gets them one game closer to the playoffs and winning the division, while a loss keeps the Chargers well alive to come back and take the division. I’ll say it like this cause it’s true, but this is the Chiefs division and playoff berth to lose. It’s a good thing they have been playing killer football lately. The play action is alive and well with Matt Cassel at the helm, I have no doubt they will make the playoffs this year. The road goes through sunny Southern California first. I’m taking the Chiefs to pull off the upset and send the Chargers packing.
Tailgate City (The Rest:)
Indianapolis at Tennessee Line: +3.5
I’m not sure what this game means for these two teams. Right now, they are both in line behind the Jaguars for the division and any hopes at the playoffs. However, neither team is playing playoff caliber football and if I could pick them both to lose this game I would. Peyton and the boys got rocked sideways last week against the Cowboys, losing in overtime. What the hell happened there? What happened was sloppy QB play and a roster full of injuries. The Titans got hopelessly smacked around by the Jaguars. I’m rooting for the Titans to win this game though, since they are a game behind Indy and Indy is a game behind the Jags. These two teams don’t even deserve to be in a playoff race. Titans at home.
Cleveland at Buffalo Line: -1.0
The Browns pulled off a close win last week, relying on strong defense instead of back-up QB Jake Delhomme. The interceptions won the game for them, and sunk the Dolphins. This week Colt McCoy should be back, which good because they travel to Buffalo to take on the scrappy Bills. That’s what you call a 2-10 team that comes close every week – scrappy. However, the Bills have had a tough time with stingy pass defenses and strong running games this year, and the Browns have both those things. I’m looking for the Browns to take this game and get one more closer to breaking even. Browns to win.
Green Bay at Detroit Line: +7.0
The Lions just can’t get a break this year. They hung in the game last week and a late roughing call (that shouldn’t have been a call) against Suh kept the Bears in it, eventually netting them the win. Too bad for the Lions though. They don’t suck this year, but based on the win/loss record one could argue that point. So is this a good team? Winning at home against Green Bay would prove it. However, that’s probably not going to happen. The Packers slowed down for a couple weeks, but the win over the Niners last week should propel them far enough for a win this week. Packers on the road.
New York at Minnesota Line: -0.0
The Vikings are now Favre-less. Chances are, he’s going to miss a start for the first time since 1992 or some crazy shit like that. This is a good thing. Look, I respect Favre and think he’s probably the greatest QB of my generation, but he should have hung up the cleats last year. Now he just looks the fool and you know if he starts this weekend it’s a stunt and he’s still running the team. Tavaris Jackson needs his shot, his own chance to fail and he’ll have a huge test against the crazy strong pass rush of the Giants. However, as Vick proved – that pass rush has holes. It’s just a matter of knowing how to exploit it. So the question for the Viking is whether or not their offensive line can give Tavaris enough time to let routes develop. If not, the Vikings are screwed. I’m taking the Giants on the road in what will be a surprisingly close game.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Line: -9.0
Ah, the AFC North, my favorite division. The Bungles have no shot in this game – or do they? The AFC North fully subscribes to the whole ‘every other Sunday’ theory but in reality the Bungles have no weapons greater than T.O., Ochocinco and Palmer – yet continue to lose. Why is this? They have a competent running game, can develop the play action – yet their defense is one of the worst in the league. Plus, as I predicted (though I didn’t think it would be this bad) they don’t seem to have the cohesion of a team. This is why they will continue to lose, especially against a team like the Steelers, who won a bruising cage match against the Ravens. Rothlesberger is hurt, but I bet he’ll still play. It really won’t matter. They should rest him. Steelers at home.
Tampa Bay at Washington Line: +3.0
In all reality, this should be a win for the Buccaneers. Look, it’s clear I don’t like the Bucs – I haven’t picked them all year and I refuse to. That’s my agenda so bite me. However, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all year. Lucky for them, only one more team they play at this point (the Saints) have a winning record. They get the Redskins, then the Seahawks, then the Panthers then the Saints. They have a pretty good chance of finishing 10-6. They have a young team, one of the youngest in the league so it’s not a surprise they aren’t beaten the veteran teams. However, this match-up is interesting because here you have the young’ens on the Bucs, and the old hats on the Redskins in McNabb, Shanahan, Moss & Hanesworth (who has been a non-factor this year.) The Redskins can play good offensive ball every once in a while, but have the worst ranked defense in the league. The bottom. Number 32. Regardless, I refuse to pick the Bucs. Skins to win at home.
Atlanta at Carolina Line: +7.5
Matty Ice. The nickname has stuck. With a calm and cool demeanor, not looking flushed or rushed he came back down-field against the Bucs and put the winning score on the board. This kid is lights out when the situation calls for a comeback. Two minute drill? Forget about it. He’s mastered that and the one minute drill. The Falcons are playing as a unit. The defense is strong and seemed to have an off week against the Bucs. Do not underestimate your opponent! Especially a team with absolutely nothing to play for or to lose – like the Panthers. Last in almost every offensive stat, holding the single worst record in the league the Panthers are playing terrible football right now. Expect more of the same as the Falcons come to town and tear them apart. Call it practice. Falcons on the road.
Oakland at Jacksonville Line: -4.5
Oakland continues to baffle and surprise. The massive win over the Chargers last week was epic for this perennially struggling team. In the long run – the next four weeks – I don’t think that win will be enough. They are going to be too far out for the Wild Card and KC is pretty much running away with the division. So good effort fellas, maybe next year. Which makes them dangerous for a team like the Jags, who are on the cusp of locking down the AFC South. They are playing like it too, ever since that hail mary win – the Jags haven’t looked back. This week, I’d look for Maurice Jones-Drew to go for 200+ against a run defense that hasn’t been stingy enough this year. Jags to win at home.
St. Louis at New Orleans Line: -9.5
Bradford has had great poise this year, and like Mark Sanchez and Ben Rothlesberger before him could see the playoffs in his rookie year. I say could because this Rams team is only 6-6 yet they lead the division with that record. Frankly, the NFC West could go to one of three team. Kind of sad huh? This week they travel to another comfy, loud dome to play the Saints. The Saints started the season a bit slow, but in recent weeks have woken up and taken back the field. Yet last week they nearly took a spanking by the Bungles. What happened there? Well, the defense took a strong nap. This week, back at home, the crowd won’t let that happen and Bradford has not played in such a hostile place as New Orleans (as far as noise levels during the snap count.) I see this being another rough game for the Saints, as the Rams will come out quick and fast. Expect a comeback by the Saints. Saints to win at home.
Seattle at San Francisco Line: -4.5
The break even Seahawks, who have been about as consistent as a rash drive down the coast to visit division rival 49′ers. To say this game is huge for the Niners is an understatement. This game is more than huge. It’s gigantic. You see, the Niners invested a lot of money and stress in Michael Crabtree last year to very little payoff. At the same time they took a huge chance with Mike Singletary in bringing him on as the head coach. So far both have been to little avail and Singletary will be looking for a new job at the end of the season. However, even at 4-8 they still have a chance in this division, and this game is it. This is a must win for the Niners, which leads me to pick the Seahawks on the road to win. The Niners don’t perform well under pressure. They don’t have the line-up for it.
New England at Chicago Line: +3.0
A week after the two best teams in the NFC played, the two best teams in the AFC played each other. Now we get the best in the AFC versus the best in the NFC. This may as well be the Superbowl. How can I even think about picking a winner in this game? Both these teams are playing at the top of their game right now, especially the Patriots who simply destroyed the Jets last week. So, since I have to make a pick I’m going to go out on a limb and pick the Bears. No wait, I’m gonna pick the Pats. No wait, I’m gonna pick the Bears. Crap. Ok, let’s flip a coin – the Bears are at home, yet the Pats play well on the road and certainly in the weather. A win puts the Pats further away from the Jets, while the Bears have a chance to lock up the division with a win. Man, this is a tough one. Ok, I’m taking the Pats on the road. Final decision.
Miami at NY Jets Line: -6.0
I said the Jets would ‘hang in there’ against the Patriots on Monday night. Boy, was I wrong about that. They got worked. The Patriots beat them on offense, beat them on defense and just beat them. No doubt that they started fresh at practice this week. Hopefully instead of focusing on what they did wrong, they focused on the Dolphins because this ‘Fins team is not to be taken lightly. They also suffered a loss last week, and although it was close – it was a tough defense that brought them down. And while I didn’t see a tough defense on Monday night against the Pats, the Jets supposedly have one of those. I expect it to wake back up for this cold weather game. Ricky and Ronnie don’t run as well in the snow, which leaves the passing game – which hasn’t been fantastic lately. Jets at home.
Denver at Arizona Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Broncos fired Josh McDaniels this week. That would make for an interesting story line, except they suck and that’s why he’s gone. His record has been terrible since he’s been coaching the Broncos, so perhaps it’s time he take a break. Meanwhile the Cardinals are doing no better and are the only team in their division that has no chance at the playoffs. Both these teams suck, this match-up will be terrible to watch and no-one cares who wins. I don’t even think the fans will win this one. Since I have to pick a winner – Cardinals at home.
Philadelphia at Dallas Line: +3.5
The NFC East is a fun division. One week the Giants are looking like they are going to run away with it, then another week the Eagles get on top, while the Redskins keep it fresh by never letting us know if they are for real or not. Then there is the Cowboys. The Cowboys have been a huge let down this season and were the first to fire their coach. However, Jon Kitna is showing some spark, which culminated with his beating of the Colts last week. This could be an interesting game for the Eagles. The important thing for the Cowboys of course is to contain Vick. The Bears did it, and since then Vick has almost been a non-factor (as much as Vick can be a non-factor.) However, the Eagles should prevail with a win on the road.
Baltimore at Houston Line: +3.0
The Ravens played a nice violent game against the Steelers last week, which was really no surprise. A couple fines were handed out after the game and the Steelers are nursing a couple bloody noses. It’s no doubt they’ll bring that type of pain to the Houston game, but they don’t hate the Texans like they hate the Steelers. They will beat them though, the Texans at this point really don’t stand a chance. Ravens to win on the road.
I just want to make one closing point about the NFL RedZone channel, Comcast does not offer it in HD in my area. I have to watch it on an HD TV in regular definition. Now, I know the NFL owns all the cameras and is broadcasting the channel in HD, cause Verizon FiOS offers it. So my question to Comcast is – is this going to change? Because I will switch to Verizon and encourage others to if this doesn’t change next year. In fact, it’d be better if it changes by Week 15. Punks.