Posts About ‘Tebow’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 11

Thursday, November 15th, 2012

Terrible week last week, for my picks and for QB injuries. Vick went out with a concussion (though I suspect it’s not as such and he was pulled cause he’s terrible) as well as Jay Cutler. Big Ben went down with a shoulder injury. The Steelers were the only team not to lose after losing their QB, though in all honestly the Eagles suck and the Steelers were playing the Chiefs. Turnovers sunk the Bears, as their offense couldn’t manage to hang on to the ball. You don’t think defense wins championships? Just take a look at that Bears v. Texans game.

In other football type news, there was a tie this week, which is like taking your mom to prom. Fucking weak. The worst part is that it was a tie in the NFC West division, which is going to be hotly contested anyway when it comes down to it. At the point, the Seahawks are smiling like crazy after their win. The biggest surprise for me this weekend wasn’t the Fins getting blown out, or the Falcons losing to the Saints or the Eagles just totally blowing it against the Cowboys, it was the Giants losing to the Bengals. I did not see that one coming.

One of the most dynamic QB/WR combos this year has been that of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. They started it last year and continue this year. Tack on the rest of the WR core on this team, and they have a potent passing attack that is hard to stop. Almost as many weapons on offense as the Falcons. They also have a pretty competent run game too. I’m surprised by this Bengals team and think they can make a run at the Ravens, as long as they aren’t playing in Baltimore.

Anyway, since this is the time of year that I start to get the sinking feeling that nobody actually reads this column besides me, CC and my boys Brett & Mikey, I’m just gonna get on with the picks.

Miami at Buffalo -1.0
So after playing some bizarre football last week, these two struggling AFC East teams meet up in the cold to decide which one won’t be hanging with the Jets in the basement. The Dolphins are playing hot & cold football, while the Bills are just cold. They always play the Pats tight, because the Pats let ‘em. This week I have the Bills, because Miami never seems to win in the cold. Man I love this time of year for football. Weather rules.

Arizona at Atlanta -9.5
The Falcons lost not because they were outplayed or outmatched, but because they were evenly matched on offense. Their defense didn’t make the moves they had been making all season to keep a good scoring margin. Regardless, back at home this week, they get back to winning. Falcons at home. What? Say something about the Cardinals? They are terrible and the play calling is the worst and most timid I’ve seen all year. Is that enough?

Cleveland at Dallas -7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Ok, I might be going out on a limb here. The Cowboys are still a mess. They are locking Jerry Jones out of the locker room, they are turning over the ball too much and Romo is playing like he doesn’t want to get his dress dirty. Sure they bea the Eagles, but the Eagles are equally fucked up. Here’s the deal, the Browns, at only two wins are coming on strong and need to finish the season in the “hopeful” column. Their defense has been playing well at times, even though ranked near the bottom. Really, it’s the 29th ranked Cowboys run defense that is the difference maker here. I say Trent runs all over them. Browns to surprise upset the Boys and make Jerry Jones cry.

Green Bay at Detroit +3.5
The Packers are back this week, back with Nelson and perhaps anyone else who was injured. The Lions are limping after getting beat pretty handily by the Vikings, and now they get the Packers. Johnson has scored two touchdowns this season and the Lions secondary appears to be sleeping on the job. Packers to win.

Cincinnati at Kansas City +3.0
Like I said earlier, the Bengals are surprising me, and the Chiefs are flat out shitty. They can’t establish a run, they can’t keep the QB in the pocket and yeah, they did sack Big Ben, but everyone gets lucky sometimes. Bengals to win.

NY Jets at St. Louis -3.5
Apparently, Jets players are bashing Tim Tebow behind his back, even though he’s not contributed much this season, of no fault of his own. And, not to mention if he was to start for the team in place of mistake prone Sanchez, he’d play his fucking heart out for them, regardless of them being absolute dicks in the locker room. Clearly, the Jets have problems. Here’s my message to the Jets players bashing Tebow – fuck you. The guy, given the chance, plays to fucking win – no matter the cost. He plays with positivity, sportsmanship and heart. Clearly that’s too difficult for you selfish pricks to understand so hope you enjoy losing. Jets lose again this week, as the Rams proved they are not to be completely underestimated. If you’ve got Jackson in your league, start him. Jets run defense is like wet toilet paper. If Tebow starts however, I may change my pick.

Philadelphia at Washington -3.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
It seems to me that everyone calling for Andy Reid’s head seem to forget how many wins & playoff appearances he’s got under his belt. However, fire him. His decision making has turned to dementia and firing his D coordinator has only made the defense worse. Keeping Vick in the game in any aspect is tanking their season. Foles will probably get the start this week, but it doesn’t matter. The Skins, while not looking like a playoff team, are at least looking a bit more concise on offense. RGIII though needs to give his receivers an extra second before he starts running around. Skins to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Carolina +1.0
The last two games for the Bucs have not only been crucial wins, but have been offensively and special teams impressive. I’m serious, and you know how much of a Bucs hater I am. I think they keep it up on the road against a quickly falling Panthers team plagued by line troubles. I dunno. I expected so much more from Cam. Sorry dude, you are like Vince Young, but you have better potential. Bucs to win.

Jacksonville at Houston -15.5
After beating the Bears at their own game, I don’t think the Texans sink low enough to play the Jags on their level. This will be like an SEC season opener. They should pay the Jags to come and get destroyed. Texans to win.

New Orleans at Oakland +4.5
The Saints are looking like The Saints once again, but considering they are playing against a team that can’t even snap the ball right the entire game, that shouldn’t be an issue. Sure the black hole is a tough place to play sometimes, but the Raiders can’t stay out of their own way long enough to win a game. Saints to win.

San Diego at Denver -7.5
Another team that loves stepping on its own toes is the Chargers. From bad Rivers decisions, to an inability to establish a strong run, to Norv Turner not knowing how to tell time, the Chargers are running out of it. Can Rivers beat Manning and the Colts, in Denver with the offense on a roll? Doubtful. Broncos to win.

Indianapolis at New England -9.5 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
While the Steelers/Ravens night game is going to be fantastic, this one intrigues me the most. The Patriots have been giving up major points this year again, and Andrew Luck is playing like he’s done this before. However, the Colts have not come up against a team that scores at will like the Patriots do. Their losses were surprising, to the Jets and Jags (Bears not so much) and their wins have been too, beating the Packers and Vikings. They looked vulnerable against the Browns and Titans, but smashed the Fins and Jags. But the Patriots do score at will. In order for the Colts to win, they have to go up big and quick, but the Patriots score at will. Pats to win.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh +4.5
I wrote every other pick before this one, even the bye week ones. This is tough. Do I go with the Ravens, who are hurting on run defense, but still good on pass defense, or the Steelers, who have been playing amazing defense once again, especially in the secondary and who are establishing a run game with who-dat players? The Ravens are favored, but why? Because of Big Ben being injured? Look, until I know if he’s playing, I can’t make a pick here. Leftwich ain’t gonna win this game for the Steelers. I’m not picking this game. Should be a good one though.

Chicago at San Francisco -5.0
Probably the best Monday night match-up this season, period. ESPN got lucky with this one I suppose, since they usually get stinkers on Monday night and NBC gets the good game on Sunday night. Either way, the Bears have got to be reeling after that loss, giving away the ball like they did. Cutler may not play as well. Marshall and Campbell just don’t have the same connection. So, who ya got? I’ve got the Bears, just cause the Niners left a bad taste in my mouth after that tie with the hapless Rams.

Bye week at Minnesota
The Vikings probably wish they didn’t have a bye so they could keep winning.

Bye week at N.Y. Giants
The Giants are wondering how in the fuck they lost in Cincinnati.

Bye week at Seattle
Seattle also wishes they didn’t have to take a bye so they could keep winning.

Bye week at Tennessee
The Titans are just confused. Blown out one week, blowing out the next. Too much blowing.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 10

Thursday, November 8th, 2012

Well, I have to gloat this week. I went 12-2 last week, which I think is my best ratio all season. I’ve had a couple ten win weeks, but this one is definitely the best. That being said, I think I’m still running at about 69%, which is regardless of my picks. Get it? Hahahaha.

I’d like to break from the NFL for a second to talk about two things that aren’t related to the NFL. The first is the NHL. That’s right, hockey. Now, I understand a lot of football fans are not hockey fans, and that’s just the way it is. I am a hockey fan, loyal to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The fact that the NHL season has already been cancelled through November, including the Winter Classic, sucks. This labor dispute is about millionaires wanting more money from billionaires. I’ll admit, many hockey players are not in the million dollar range when it comes to annual salaries, and these guys at the league minimum are losing money. They want to get out there and play and earn their paychecks. It’s the superstars, arguing for a percentage point more of the gate that are holding the game back, and it’s the NHL not giving it to them causing casual fans to just not give a shit. This is not good for the NHL, which is obvious, but unlike the NFL, fans won’t just come flocking back. The NHL needs to resolve this dispute now, before coming back to crickets.

The second thing is the Presidential Election. Most years when I go to the ballot box, I’m torn. This year was easy. Mitt Romney is so out of touch with reality and living in happy religious rich white man world that the choice was easy. As for Colorado and other states legalizing recreational weed – awesome. Even more important, congrats to the states approving marriage equality. Everyone, gay, straight, lesbian, made out of matchbooks, should have the right to suffer through marriage and pay out the nose for divorce.

In other NFL news, it appears that Andy Reid has fired Juan Castillo again, because the Eagles defense was once again just as terrible as their QB who got sacked seven times. More on that in a second. So now that we’re nearing the home stretch of the season (oh man, already?) who do you have as the best rookie standout this season? Can’t say RGIII has truly impressed, while Andrew Luck is setting records left and right. Who ya got? I’ve got Week 10 picks.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville +3.0
Andrew Luck is setting all kinds of rookie records, making his start in Indy more spectacular than Peyton. There is a pretty good chance the Colts are headed to the playoffs as a Wild Card, thanks to the AFC East being meh and parity in the NFL. No parity here, the Jags are terrible on both sides of the ball. If you have any Colts offensive players, I’d suggest starting them. I’d start Luck over Matt Ryan, but c’mon, it’s Matt Ryan. Colts to win.

New York at Cincinnati +6.0
Once again, the Bengals season is hanging by a thread. At 3-5 and getting lit up by Denver last week, the Bengals need a serious rebound. Perhaps the reeling Giants? Perhaps not. The Giants find a way to grind out a win, even though they didn’t do so against the Steelers. The Bengals allow a lot of passing yards, and another Manning should deliver another loss. Giants on the road.

Tennessee at Miami -6.0
Finally Johnson broke out last week. Too bad it was late in a rout. Fantasy owners who actually started him were happy. Too little, too late. The truth is, against an aggressive line, the Titans can’t get a running game going. Apply pressure, and the Titans will turn over the ball. The Dolphins, at 4-4 are looking to catch up to the Pats. A win here at home will help. Fins to win.

Detroit at Minnesota +1.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
This is as close as I could get to an upset special this week, a one point line. The Lions finally looked like themselves last week, with the passing game in full swing. But the were playing the Jags, who basically rolled over and played dead for three quarters. This week, they play division rival Vikings who are not playing dead. They are running well, and defending tough against the run. I think they eke out a win at home against the Lions, winning the turnover game.

Buffalo at New England -11.0
Surprisingly enough, the Bills stayed in the game through three against the Texans last week, but we all knew what was going to happen. Once again, timid and ill-timed play calling killed them in the late stages, and will kill them again this week. I don’t smell an upset here. The Patriots, while 28th in total defense, are still stronger than the Bills by far. Pats to win.

Atlanta at New Orleans +2.5
Again, another team finally comes on strong, but against a far inferior team. Drew Brees looked like his old self on that TD pass to Graham, but coaching and play calling is still a problem. This is the chance for the Saints to play spoiler, but I think they’ve already given up on their season at 3-5, which is ridiculous in the NFC. The return of Vilma helped the defense a lot, and I expect them to give Ryan a tough time passing the ball, but the Falcons have too many weapons to be ignored. Falcons to win.

San Diego at Tampa Bay -3.0
How about Martin for the Bucs? Setting a rookie record, blasting for four touchdowns – against the Raiders. Who have the run defense of a wet paper bag full of pineapples. Look, it’s a great accomplishment but hold on, the Bucs don’t play someone with a bad run defense every week… or do they? The Chargers come to town with the 4th ranked rush defense… oh. These two 4-4 teams are very hopeful. One has a coach that makes terrible late game calls (Norv) and the other has a weasel coach who plays like a dick. I’m rooting for San Diego, but the Bucs win this game.

Denver at Carolina +3.0
The Panthers rank middle of the road on just about everything, and they play like it. Last weeks win was no indication of anything as far as I’m concerned. Newton has settled down a bit, but still isn’t finding Steve Smith. Give Smith the ball, let him make the plays. These running QB’s think they need to make all the plays. How’s that working out for Vince Young and Vick? Forget it. Manning shreds them through the air. Broncos to win.

Oakland at Baltimore -7.5
Well, the Ravens D proved something last week, that even without Ray Lewis they can sink down to the Browns level and play like shit. They almost gave that game away. Thankfully, the Raiders and their 30th ranked rushing offense shouldn’t crack the 27th ranked rush defense of the Ravens. 27th? Are you serious? The Raiders can spark at times, but it won’t be enough against the Ravens at home. Ravens to win.

NY Jets at Seattle -5.5
The Jets were on a bye last week, did anyone notice? Didn’t think so. Every time they put Tebow in, I wince. No one is falling for the trick plays, the running game is nonexistent and Sanchez is still mistake prone. The only bright spot is the secondary. The Seahawks are on a tear though, and I don’t think the Jets, in the loudest stadium in the league, are going to stop them. Hawks at home.

Dallas at Philadelphia +2.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Vick was sacked seven times last week. Romo played like he was made of fine china. These two QB’s are a constant disappointment to their franchises, yet are lauded as heroes. Why? I can’t figure it out. Bench both of them, see what happens. The Eagles are a joke right now, and losing at home to rival Cowboys should cause more than one riot. I’m looking forward to it. Cowboys to win.

St. Louis at San Francisco -11.0
The Rams, coming off a bye, are another disappointment. They won’t be a challenge for the Niners, who should be able to pass at will against them. The run might get stuffed a bit, for the first quarter. Niners at home.

Houston at Chicago -1.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
The 7-1 Texans against the 7-1 Bears. Both teams have exceptional offense. Both teams have exceptional defense, with the Bears edging the Texans a bit in that department. Seven TD’s already this season by the Bears defense. While Schaub is not that mistake prone, the Bears D plays for turnovers. Forte and Foster might get stuffed a bit in this one. Should be a hell of a good game. The only factor is weather, as the Texans play in that dome and the Bears play in the fucking snow. I’m taking the home team. Bears to win by like one point. Maybe in overtime.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh -11.5
Yeah, Steelers to win. Do I even need to say much more than that? KC is horrible. No passing game, a rushing game that by all accounts should be fantastic and a QB that loves to throw to the other team. Steelers by a bunch.

Bye week at Arizona
The golf course beckons. Don’t worry guys, you’ll be there soon.

Bye week at Green Bay
A much needed bye week for some injuries that need healing. Then it’s back to ass kicking.

Bye week at Washington
Once again, bad late game play calling and quarterback impatience ruined the game.

Bye week at Cleveland
For a team that sucks as bad as this one, they have a really positive social media team.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 8

Thursday, October 25th, 2012

So yeah, when I tweeted out that I was looking at three fantasy football losses this past weekend due to my lack of Matt Ryan, the NFL’s official twitter replied to me, asking if I was leaning too much on Matty Ice. You are damn straight I was. I’m 5-2, 4-3 & 3-4 in my fantasy leagues. Matty Ice is the only reason I have any wins as it is. Between him and A.J. Green. And in the league that plays defensive players, the Atlanta D has been lights out. I’ve lost by close points, just bad match-ups on hot weekends by key players. The difference this year, is I’m not playing against myself. Most of my team is the same in all three leagues.

So this past weekend I was in transit from Chicago to Atlanta to Sarasota. I was only able to watch a bit of the Giants v. Redskins game and both of the 4pm games. That’s about it. Missed the Sunday night game, but I heard it was boring as shit. I was right on about that Patriots v. Jets game, with the Pats trying to lose the game via penalties and the Jets finally just giving up in overtime, as the offensive line just kind of stood there as the Pats front rushed by to cause the game winning fumble.

That Raiders game was ugly wasn’t it? I mean, Chad Henne and the Jaguars offense was bad enough without MJD in the game, but Carson Palmer was just terrible. Fumbles, throwing the ball around like a confused elderly patient… terrible. Tell you one thing though, that guy can take a hit. Thankfully, after a few years of being a glass doll, so can Matt Stafford. And he certainly got hit on Monday night against the Bears. So much so that it started a delightful meme, which is highlighted in the picture at top.

So needless to say, since I only watched three game really, missed NFL RedZone, this weeks picks are going to be a bit light in substance. I think. Who the hell knows when I get down there. On with the picks!

Tampa Bay at Minnesota -6.5
The Bucs almost stole that game from the Saints, or the Saints stole it from them. A smart defensive play to negate the tying TD was the difference maker. Meanwhile, I have no idea what the Vikings did, but I’m taking them again this week since they are looking stronger and stronger. Vikings to win.

Carolina at Chicago -9.0
Well, I was wrong about the Panthers this year, it appears they are terrible. That’s what they get for letting Cam Newton’s ego get out of hand. The Bears are tough. Watch out Carolina, you’re gonna get crushed. Bears to win.

San Diego at Cleveland +2.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!! UPSET SPECIAL!!
Someone asked me why I pick the Browns as my crapfest of the week so often. Uh, cause they suck? This week I’m picking them – again – to upset. Why do I keep doing this to myself? They get so close, yet suck so bad. But this year, so do the Chargers. Browns at home.

Seattle at Detroit -1.0
The Detroit defense shouldn’t leave the field, because the offense is terrible. You have to establish a run game to open up the pass, and they aren’t doing that and Stafford is getting crushed. The Seahawks are not out of the NFC playoff race, not by a long shot. I dunno who to pick here really. Flip a coin. Seahawks.

Jacksonville at Green Bay -13.0
Yeah, Packers have woken the fuck up. Good luck stopping Rodgers. Packers to win by like a billion.

Indianapolis at Tennessee -3.5
Neither of these teams is playing lights out football, but there is one thing that the Titans have that may change their season – a re-energized Chris Johnson. Yes, he was up against a terrible Bills run defense, but that may have been the boost he needed. The Colts aren’t much better in that department. Titans to win.

New England at St. Louis +7.0
Well hell, there is finally a leading team in the AFC East. It’s the Patriots, who have chosen once again to not play defense. Finally the offense snapped into position against the Jets, looking sharp in the 4th quarter. They’ll continue that this week as they pick apart the Rams. Pats to win.

Miami at NY Jets -1.0
Sanchez is terrible. I’m sticking by that. He gives up, his offensive line gives up and their trick plays are shit. Absolute shit. Miami wins this game because they look like they are trying to fucking win a game.

Atlanta at Philadelphia -1.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
How in the balls are the Eagles favored in this game? Even by one point. They have the most offensive turnovers, inexplicably fired their defensive coordinator because of it, and have a QB who is simply terrible. Meanwhile, the Falcons are undefeated and killing it. Yeah. Falcons to win.

Washington at Pittsburgh -4.5
RGIII is playing well, but by no means the greatest QB in the game right now. Pundits are eating his shit like it’s fucking gold mousse. Well Eli and the Giants showed RGIII what a game winning drive looked like last week, and now Big Ben is going to show him again. You have a lot to learn yet young buck. Steelers to win.

Oakland at Kansas City -1.0
Who cares? The Chiefs to win just to keep these teams out of contention for the division.

New York at Dallas +2.0
So just when I was writing off Dallas, they beat the Panthers. Well, they barely beat the Panthers. The Cowboys are still a mess and the Giants have never lost in that monstrosity of a stadium in Dallas. Giants to win.

New Orleans at Denver -6.0
Manning and crew are starting to get a system going here folks. Watch out. They are 3-3 and getting ready to blast off. They are so close, I can feel it. Fox has got to let Manning run the game though, and the offensive line has got to pay attention. The running game is fantastic. I think they beat the Saints this week, no bubbles no troubles.

San Francisco at Arizona +7.0
The Cardinals started out looking like the team to beat, but then the season started. At the same time, the Niners also fell from grace. While the Niners have recovered a bit, this is still a close race in the NFC West. There is only one losing record! This game is important for the Cards, as they can’t hope to win the division if they can’t beat the Niners at home. You know what? I’m taking the Cardinals to surprise upset the Niners. I might be wrong, but if I’m right, I look like a genius.

Bye Week at Baltimore
Ravens defense has taken too many injuries for this team to make the playoffs this year. Sorry Flacco.

Bye Week at Buffalo
What run defense?

Bye Week at Cincinnati
That loss to the Steelers hurts. A lot.

Bye Week at Houston
Trust me, this team does not want a bye week, not with the stretch of wins they’ve been on.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: AFC East Preview

Tuesday, August 28th, 2012

I’m getting tired of watching Sportscenter and Merrill Hoge and his giant fucking tie blasting Tim Tebow. Hoge has been one of the biggest Tebow detractors since he entered the league, and makes sure to kick him whenever he makes a mistake. On Sunday, Tebow had a couple scrambles and threw an interception, and Hoge was sure to blast him for that. Not praise him for extending plays, or running for a first down. In fact, he used that run for a first down as an example of why Tebow sucks. The whole Jets team sucks. Up to this point, they haven’t scored a fucking touchdown at all this preseason.

Yeah yeah, we all know that I’m a Tim Tebow honk. I can’t help it. The guy is exciting to watch. Sure, he’s got a shit ton of fundamental problems that would have knocked any other pocket passer or non-exciting QB out of the league by now, but that won’t happen to Tebow. You can’t help but like the the guy and I hope that the Jets and Rex Ryan can figure out how to use him properly this season.

So, as the season approaches we’re now going to take a look at the AFC East, and then the AFC West later this week. We’ll finish up with the AFC South next Tuesday which will lead into my first regular Thursday column of the season, the week one preview. I know, you can’t freaking wait. Keep your pants on kids, the season is just about here for realz.

AFC East

New England Patriots
While I was rooting against them, losing in the Superbowl last year after another good season was kind of a travesty. Of course, their defense was the real travesty. The offense just had to score more points than the defense allowed. That worked ouf for them 13 times. This year, the defense should be a little bit better as they spent most of their draft picks on defensive players and added some free agents like Will Allen and Steve Gregory.

The most notable departure was BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but Joseph Addai joins the team to fill that vacancy along with 2011 draft pick Stevan Ridley, and both will fill it well. In fact, check out these additions on offense – Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Jake Ballard and Bo Scaife. They picked up Donte Stallworth too, but then cut him. Tack them onto the already stacked offense and you have a team that is going to be hard to outscore. In fact, I don’t really see any team outscoring the Patriots this year in total cumulative points. There’s no way. Also, Josh McDaniels returns as offensive coordinator and Matt Patricia was named defensive coordinator, replacing Bellchick who has been running the near last ranked defense since 2009. He just doesn’t have the time.

I guess the only real question with the Patriots is how Brady handles his favorite target in Wes Welker, and all the other receivers. Welker is known as a slot guy and doesn’t get the respect that he deserves as one of the leagues best receivers. Hopefully McDaniels realizes this and doesn’t sideline him too much because he’s a fucking winner. This whole team is a winner. Pending some strange disaster, the Patriots are definitely Superbowl bound.

Projected Finish: 16-0

Buffalo Bills
Vince Young was already cut by the Bills as they brought in Tavaris Jackson in a trade. There’s a big whoopdie-doo. Fitzpatrick is still the starter, and as proven last year, the kid can take a hit and still keep on chugging. He’ll have to this year, as I don’t see any superior improvements on the offensive line that would suggest he won’t be scrambling. I like the tandem of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller in the backfield again this year, as both players can run and run short routes for passes if needed. Jackson won’t last forever though, which is why the Bills signed Dorin Dickerson.

Sadly, I don’t think this team can win under Chan Gailey, I mean, not win the division. They’ll get some wins, like they did last year but his play calling late in games is way too conservative. This team has to be aggressive. Speaking of aggressive, giving new defensive coordinator Wannstedt Mario Williams to control is just crazy. They spent mad money on Williams in order to hopefully throttle Tom Brady a few times this year, but I don’t think that it’s going to pay off like they think it will. Sure, Mario is a game changer but the fact is that the rest of the team has to be playing at that level too.

After their terrible finish last year, one can hope that the young players on the Bills team had some time to acclimate to playing in the NFL and mght step it up this year. That’s optimistic to say the least, and this won’t be the worst team in the league, the AFC or even the division, I just don’t think they won’t be contenders.

Projected Finish: 7-9

Miami Dolphins

Reminder for dolphins section of your preview. Use words like ‘rebuilding’ and ‘potential’ in place of ‘shitty’, ‘forgettable’ – @levimills

Well, this shitty team has already settled on rookie Ryan Tannehill to lead this team, rather than Matt Moore or the displaced David Garrard. In this forthcoming forgettable season they have named Regis… er.. Joe Philbin, former Packers offensive coordinator, head coach. At least he won’t have to worry about trying to keep Brandon Marshall’s attitude in check, as he’s already been shown the door.

I liked the Dolphins defense last year, but they’ll have a new coordinator this year which means that once again a team will have to adjust to a new scheme instead of advancing on what they’ve already learned to get better. Teams just like to set themselves up for failure year after year when it comes to coaching and bringing in new plays to learn after only a year with the old ones. A couple rookies on the defensive line should add a little spark to the run defense, but in the AFC East, that’s not the biggest concern. The biggest concern is the secondary and the offense. Kevin Coyle, new D-coordinator, did well in Cincinnati with the defense, so we’ll see if he can whip the secondary into shape.

As for the offense, what do you want me to say here? Reggie Bush and Chad Johnson? You’ve got Bess and Hartline at the top of the depth chart for receivers. I mean, I like Hartline but he’s no Wes Welker. I love watching the Dolphins pay for that move every time they play the Patriots. Listen, Dolphin fans, I feel your pain. I think a few wins against the Bills and Jets will help the Fins to a winning season, but ok, fine – this is a rebuilding year.

Projected Finish: 9-7

NY Jets
Fucking laughable. No preseason touchdowns, Tony Sparano as offensive coordinator, this team is in serious disarray. Outside of Plaxico Burress getting the boot, they are still going to rely on the running game, this year Greene and McKnight will be the featured backs, in order to score. I mean, they still have Holmes and brought in Chaz Schilens from Oakland, and retained Dustin Keller, but it doesn’t matter cause Mark Sanchez sucks donkey balls. He’s like Tony Romo light, but never banged Jessica Simpson.

Is Revis going to play? That’s the big question on defense. Another holdout situation. If not, the secondary is shit. The run defense is also something to be very worried about. Should just put Tim Tebow in at linebacker. Apparently Rex Ryan is thinking about moving to a 4-3 instead of a 3-4 which would probably be a move in the right direction, but against the Bills and Patriots it won’t matter. Their runners are too good to be bottled up by a mediocre Jets defense.

I might be selling the Jets short, I mean they have had a very high ranked defense the last couple of years, but they still have been losing games. That’s what really matters. Of course, most of that is on the lethargic offense and Sanchez, who still struggles with accuracy and decision making. I don’t get how he still has a starting job. Whatever. Either way, I see the Jets being the goat of the AFC East this year.

Projected Finish: 6-10

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 16

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

"Hey buddy. Hey buddy. IHOP after the game? You know it."

Sigh. Last week was terrible, for pretty much everyone I think. Who saw all those upsets coming? I went 7-9, which I suppose is respectable. I mean, the Seahawks made the playoffs last year with the same record. There were so many upsets last week, I mean – the Packers? Who could have seen that coming. Either way, it’s a new week and I really need to make up some ground if I want a cushy new job at CBS Sports or ESPN. Which I’ll never get only going 63% on the year. Well, that’s still better than most analysts.

So the playoff picture is really fucked up this year. I mean, you have your division winners with the AFC West still mathematically up for grabs, and you have a giant battle on both sides for the wild-card with about thirty billion different scenarios. It should be an interesting week of football. Don’t forget, games are on Saturday this week, not Sunday because of your Christian god and Santa and what not. Also, no one gives a shit about the NBA. On with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at NY Jets Line: -3.0
This game, as Rex Ryan seems to think, is going to be war. The Giants looked like shit last week as Eli threw three interceptions and the defense rolled over like bitches to the Redskins. The Giants seemed to defer the division to the Cowboys with relative ease. Same for the Jets, who kept the Eagles hopes alive by playing like absolute shit. So what happened to the New York teams? They both get a home game here, so there should be some fights in the crowd for sure. They both have QB’s on the cusp of greatness, though Eli obviously is the better QB most days. Both of them tend to make horrible decisions under pressure, but only one of them has the two minute drill down pat, and that’s Eli. I think the Jets will go up early, only to lose late. The Giants have to win this game if they want to have a chance at the playoffs, and win next week, and hope the Cowboys lose. Giants to win.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Houston at Indianapolis Line: +6.0
Wade Phillips needs to ask for a huge raise. These two teams have shown how important one man can be to a whole team, to a season. However, only one has locked up the playoffs for the first time in their existence, and that would be the Texans. A week after sealing the deal and without Wade Phillips coaching the defense, the Texans suffered a huge upset at the hands of the Panthers, just rolling over on the defensive side of the ball. The fans were booing in Texas (they made it to the playoffs – shut the fuck up!) This week, going in to face the one win Colts (on a precarious ledge between winning too many games and losing enough to secure the 1st pick in the draft) they shouldn’t have any issues. The Colts offense doesn’t have the running attack like the Panthers. The Colts need to lose anyway. They don’t want to I’m sure. But they have one win and the Rams and Vikings each have two. So, they need to stay at one to get “Luck”y. Texans to win on the road.

Denver at Buffalo Line: +3.0
Here’s my analysis of the Denver vs New England game. The Denver defense, stout coming into the game, clearly fell apart in the second half. How do you not cover the best receiving tight end in the league with double coverage? They did a good job of rushing Brady in the first half, then gave it up in the second. And when Bellichick declined that penalty to give the Broncos 4th and one, knowing that Fox would take the safe three points, I knew it was going to be over for the Broncos. The Broncos are the number one rushing team in the league and are you telling me they couldn’t push it one fucking yard? The haters came out immediately blaming Tebow, but he did what he could (save for the late game 30 yard sack) considering his offensive line play was terrible, even against a three man rush. The Broncos were outcoached, and that’s on Fox and the defense. Moving on, they are still leading the division and a win in Buffalo will secure that playoff spot for them as division winners. Buffalo is on a six game skid and it keeps getting worse. A snow game last week in which they usually win, they didn’t. They are terrible right now, and I expect that to continue. Time to rebuild – again. Denver to win on the road.

Arizona at Cincinnati Line: -4.5
A lot of teams, especially in the NFC are still in the “hunt” for the playoffs – at least statistically. The Cardinals being a prime example. If they win out, and every one around them loses, they could be hitting a wild-card spot. But a lot of pieces need to fall into place. This team is not to be counted out, as the Browns learned last week. But that was the Browns, who are coached idiotically. Do not punt directly to the hottest punt return man in the league! The Bengals are unfortunately going to be shut out of the playoffs, sucks for them after their hot start. Dalton has matured into quite the starting QB and shouldn’t have much trouble at home picking apart the Cardinals secondary. The question is, can the Bengals secondary cover Fitzgerald? Bengals to win, barely.

Jacksonville at Tennessee Line: -9.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Well, if the Titans have achieved anything this year it was handing the Colts their first (and possibly only) win of the season. Good on them. Someone needed to. It was getting depressing. The Titans looked lethargic at best, apparently they forgot at that point they still had a shot at the playoffs, not anymore. The good news is, we won’t have to see Hasselbeck limping around the field as they are sure to give Locker some playing time. The Jags, well, they had a forgettable season even though MJD had a great year. I’d look for him to rack up some yards in this game, as the Titans run defense has totally fallen apart late in the season. I’m taking the Jags to win, just because they have absolutely nothing to lose and seem to be on again/off again and this should be an on week. Jags on the road.

Oakland at Kansas City Line: -1.0
Mathematically, and pending a Denver loss (which hopefully won’t happen) both these teams are still in the running for a playoff spot. While the Raiders are on a clear slide, the Chiefs beat the Packers. They did it with defense and Romeo Crennel should get coach of the year for that shit. Or at least a full time job. Either way, the Chiefs aren’t the best offensive team, but the Raiders aren’t either. In fact, the only thing the Raiders are good at lately are committing penalties. I’m looking for this game to be no different and the outcome to be determined on penalties and turnovers. Flip a coin. I’m taking the Chiefs at home.

Miami at New England Line: -10.5
No surprise that Miami swept the Bills this year, and no surprise that the Patriots beat the Broncos proper right? Even though I picked the Broncos, but it still wasn’t surprising. As well as Miami is playing right now, and as much as I’d love to pick an upset here it’s not going to happen. Brady and team are setting all kinds of records offensively and should continue against the inconsistent Miami defense. I see no reason why this won’t be a high scoring game though, so look for some fun touchdowns and for Miami to stay in the game through at least three quarters. Patriots to win at home.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh Line: -16.0
For some reason, the Rams beating the Saints is still somewhere in our minds and that should give hope to Rams fans, but it doesn’t. They are terrible from front to back and this week should be no different. The pressure from the Steelers defense will be unbearable for the offense. While the Steelers got whipped in San Francisco, that was clearly a superior defensive team. Too bad they won’t meet in the playoffs. Steelers to win easy at home.

Minnesota at Washington Line: -6.5
The Redskins should be happy with themselves. While still having no shot at a division they have no general business being in (cause they suck and there should be a division for teams like this so they can wallow in their suckiness) they sure did muck up the Giants chances last week. Of course, they were assisted by Eli Manning throwing them the ball plenty of times. I think they win again this week against a Vikings team that has struggled to get anything going this year, getting blown out last week against the Saints. They have hope though, as Ponder and Webb make a good one-two combo at QB. Now, if only one of them was good enough to win a game. Redskins to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Carolina Line: -7.5
The Bucs are terrible. There was a report on the radio that the GM calls down plays to Rahim Morris during the game. What kind of undermining bullshit is that? No wonder they can’t get anything done on the field. They are a disappointment to the league and to the city of Tampa. They may as well switch their jerseys back to the old creamsicles and call it a day. Panthers to win in dominant fashion.

Cleveland at Baltimore Line: -13.0
Someone at work said they had a hard time making this pick because of the way the Ravens played last week against the Chargers. I said are you kidding me? Look at the way the Browns have played all season long! They constantly find ways to lose games, most recently kicking to the best punt returner in the league this year. Morons. Colt is out and Seneca is in, and that shouldn’t give Browns fans anything to hope for at this moment. Meanwhile, the Ravens with Ray Lewis back are losing again. I wonder if he’s shoving aside defensive linemen to try and make every play himself, because whatever he’s doing, it ain’t helping. The Ravens need a big win and this one should be big. Ravens at home.

San Diego at Detroit Line: -3.0
There are two things that are certain in December. One, is that it’s the holidays and you’ll be getting tons of holiday cheer and your once a year Christmas blow job. The second, is that Philip Rivers is nearly unstoppable in December. He continued his tear last weak, beating the Ravens in glorious fashion, making Norv Turner actually look good for once. I think that the Chargers roll into Detroit and pull off another big win, really throwing a wrench into the possibility of the Lions making the playoffs. Chargers to win.

Philadelphia at Dallas Line: -3.0
Let’s see, as much as I want the Eagles to be out of the playoff conversation, this division sucks just enough for them to still be in it. Their only shot is if both the Cowboys and the Giants drop their next two, and the Eagles win their next two. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker, at 3-1 in the division currently. They roll in to Dallas this week, then they get Washington at home next week. So can the “dream team” do it or is their nightmare season finally coming to an end in Dallas? Some pundits have said Romo has had a career season, I say he’s overrated and generally shit, yet, he’s currently helming a division leading team and slaughtered a very crappy Bucs team last week. Dallas making the playoffs seemed the most likely scenario but man, the Eagles have finally got their shit together and are looking like the dream team we were promised. The Cowboys defense has really not played up to expectations and they really need to be on this game. I predicted the Cowboys would win the division, and picking the Eagles here would bounce that prediction unless the Eagles were to lose to Washington next week. The Eagles are playing too good right now, Eagles to win on the road and totally muck up the division.

San Francisco at Seattle Line: +1.5
This is the thought in the Seahawks locker room. If Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona & Chicago don’t win any more games, and the Hawks win their last two they could make the playoffs. Here’s reality, they won’t get past the Niners. Not on a good day. While they went to town on the Bears last week, the Niners are not the Bears and are lights out on defense. Did you see how they beat the Steelers? Defensive pressure. The Niners still have something to play for, and that’s a first round bye. It’s between them and the Saints for that. Of course, the Saints haven’t even technically won their division yet. They will. The Niners should dominate in this game and put the Seahawks out of their misery.

Chicago at Green Bay Line: -13.0
It’s amazing that with Cutler out this long that Martz hasn’t made any adjustments in the offensive game plan to make it any easier for Caleb Hanie. That’s why the Bears haven’t won at all since Cutler has been out, the game is too complicated at this point for Hanie and the Bears have thrown away a once promising season. Sad for Bears fans, good for Packers fans as they should hope for an easy win in this one. But wait, the KC defense stepped up and showed other teams how to beat the Packers – get after Rodgers like your life depends on it. Duh. At the same time, it exposed holes in the Green Bay offensive line and they’ve had a week to fix them. I don’t think the KC win will do anything to help other teams against a normally unstoppable Green Bay offense, but it does kind of bring them down to Earth. Green Bay to win at home.

Atlanta at New Orleans Line: -7.0
Atlanta is pretty much in the playoffs, pending disaster. They have no chance at the division (well, they do but the Saints would have to lose two in a row which ain’t gonna happen,) but the Saints want that delicious home field advantage. So the Saints are going to come out firing in this one. If they get a big lead, will they rest Drew Brees and prevent him from breaking Marino’s record? I doubt it. That’s just not the way Sean Peyton coaches this team. This should be a nice back and forth game, another good Monday night match-up worth watching. The Falcons though, while they can suffer a loss and still be in a good position for the playoffs could stand to get another win just to be sure. Of course, for them to get knocked out of the playoffs a lot of other shit around the NFC has to go down, which is possible based on the match-ups this week. I’m sticking with the Saints though, who are actually looking better than the Packers.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Doesn't matter who wins. They'll lose to the Packers anyway.

Only four weeks left in the NFL season. The first of many tears has already started to fall from my baby blue eyes. Not just because the NFL is going to be done soon, but because I have to put up with constant NBA highlights. I was really hoping that the NBA would not be coming back, but it is. At least there is hockey and baseball starts in April. I’m thinking too far ahead. For now, we still have four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs to get through. Which means I have a column of picks to write.

Last week I didn’t do fabulous, but it was a positive week. I’m 63% on the season, which is pretty good but not as good as I want. Time to buck up and really think about these picks. Or not think about these picks. I doubt all the people at work who do better than me on their picks every other week really do much analysis. Maybe I over analyze. I have no idea. That takes too much thought to determine if I’m applying too much thought.

In more personal news, I’m currently looking for strong freelance or even part-time(ish) for hire gigs. Writing, editing, content producing, whatever. So you have a need or know someone who does, please have them contact me. That was a link. Directly to email. That’s how I roll. I’m open to anything, anywhere, any bat channel, any bat time. Enough of that, on with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at Dallas Line: -3.5
The 6-6 Giants roll in to face the 7-5 Cowboys in their first meeting this season (can you believe that?) The table for this dinner isn’t set yet, since they still have to play again in week 17. Basically it’s like this, the winner of this series is the one that makes the playoffs from this division. I’m guessing both of these teams finish 10-6. Which means what for this prediction? It means that the Giants win this week and Dallas wins the next match-up in New York? I guess that’s what it means. Which means divisional record is the tie breaker. At the beginning of the season I picked the Cowboys to win the division, and I’m sticking with that. However, I think they way the Giants played against the Packers and all season is much more impressive than the Cowboys. To this point, and this week – the Giants win. Needless to say, I’ll probably be picking the Cowboys in week 17. Giants on the road by a field goal or less.

 

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: -14.0
For some reason I picked Cleveland last week. As a lifelong Browns fan I should have known better that even at home, they weren’t going to beat their former incarnation in the Ravens. Instead, they got pistol whipped like they were wandering the streets of Cincinnati. The Ravens worked them in every aspect of the game, there were no bright points. It was sad. It’ll be even sadder this week as they visit Pittsburgh. Traditionally, the Steeler vs. Browns match-up is a good game, but there is so much disparity between these two teams over the last couple years that there is no doubt that the Steelers will dominate the Browns. After watching the Steelers run, pass and score at will against the Bengals last week, the Browns don’t stand a chance. Steelers at home.

Houston at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Texans are continuously overcoming serious injuries to keep in the game for the playoffs. They have the Titans to watch for, at only two games behind, but they are playing pretty well considering. Yates isn’t terrible and held it together after Johnson was sidelined again this season. The victory over the Falcons was a win for the defense as well, missing Mario Williams. In a year this defense (overall) went from 30th to second. Good job Wade Phillips. The Bengals, while still looking average on both sides of the ball, couldn’t get past the true division test in the Steelers and Ravens. They’ll miss the playoffs. But the Dalton to Green connection is getting exciting to watch. I’m down with that for the future. I think Houston rolls in this week and pulls off a mild upset to secure their spot in the playoffs. Houston on the road.

Minnesota at Detroit Line: -0.0
The downfall of the Lions has almost been as exciting to watch as their surprise start to the season. Schwartz doesn’t seem to care that his team (even without Suh) is committing penalty after penalty, a lot of them in the area of personal fouls. Morons. Their drubbing by the Saints knocked them off the shelf of elite teams for good this season. They really can’t turn it around. The Saints showed that simple double coverage on Megatron really mucks up the offense. Minnesota has a competent defense and I think they can do the same. Losing last week to the Denver Tebows was tough, but the offense turned the ball over at some crucial moments. This should be an interesting game, and I think that if Detroit keeps up it’s penalty ridden ways, the Vikings win this game. Otherwise the Lions win. Do I have to pick a winner with a zero line? Fine. Detroit at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee Line: +4.0
The Titans aren’t out the playoff hunt yet, but they are hoping they continue to be underestimated. Now that CJ2K is finally finding the holes to punch through, they have stepped up their game a notch. 153 yards and two TD’s against Buffalo, and a week before also racking up huge yards it’s undeniable that Johnson is back. Hasselbeck is playing better, finding targets but still managing to throw it to the defense every once in a while. Finding those holes against the Saints defense might prove to be difficult, and they’ll need to if they hope to keep up with the offense. I’m taking the Saints in this game just cause they are the much better team, but I expect the Titans to make it interesting.

Philadelphia at Miami Line: -3.0
Aside from the Lions the other most exciting collapse to watch is that of the Eagles. McCoy is having a great season on the ground, but it doesn’t matter. Vince Young throws interception after interception and Vick can never get the game moving like he promised. It’s a disaster in Philly. Will Andy Reid be out of a job at the end of the season even considering his winning history with the team? Vick was a mistake. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, previously undrafted, will have every right to ask for a nice new contract at the end of the season, regardless of the coach. Assuming he keeps winning. They could finish 8-8, which considering their start would be great for the Dolphins. Reggie Bush has found new life in Miami and I think the Philly defense doesn’t put the brakes on the Dolphins winning ways. Fins to win at home.

Kansas City at NY Jets Line: -9.0
A 38 yard hail mary mixed in with terrible offense, terrible defense and a non-existent running game created a win. An improbable win, but a win and a loss for the Bears. The Chiefs are treading water, with no chance at a winning season and just a sad, sad year. The Jets shouldn’t have a problem with the visiting team this week, since unlike the Bears their team is more than just two guys. Of course, the Jets are the kings of week to week inconsistency on defense and offense, but if even one of those sides sparks just a bit, the win should come easy. Jets to win at home.

New England at Washington Line: +9.0
The difference between the Packers defense and the Patriots defense is turnover margin. While both allow a good chunk of scoring, the Packers defense forces a lot of turnovers that result, either directly or indirectly (in the hands of the offense) in points. The Patriots defense is horrid, making the Colts look moderately good in the passing game last week. This is going to cost them in the playoffs, when they have to face teams like the Ravens or Steelers that can easily take advantage of those defensive holes. I think even Washington this week takes advantage and keeps the game close. while they lost their shoes to the Jets, for the first half of the game they looked like they were in it. Obviously, Patriots to win these week, but they don’t make it look easy.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +3.0
Cam Newton, rookie of the year? That’s the consideration, though wouldn’t the biggest an impact a player could have on a team be winning? He’s doing a little bit of that, but the best that the Panthers can hope for is a third place finish in the division. The future looks bright for this team and if they can beat Atlanta this week, perhaps the immediate future will look real bright. The Falcons lost against Houston with the inability to run against that defense and a late penalty killed the tying drive. The Panthers don’t have that strong of a defense, and while they whipped up on the Bucs last week, that was the Bucs. Look for the Panthers to come out on all cylinders, but the Falcons to prevail late or in overtime. Falcons to win.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Chance are that wherever you are in the country this game will be blacked out, thank your lucky stars for that. The Jaguars seemed like they could get something together after inexplicably beating the Ravens but never did. Getting whupped by the Chargers on Monday night was just another nail in the coffin for Del Rio. What? Del Rio is already gone? Oh. Yeah. MJD will run all over the Bucs. This is the point in the season where it gets hard to pick game cause the match-ups are either too good, or too shitty to care about. Let’s be analytical here though. The Bucs run defense, as Carolina proved, is shit. That’s the ONE highlight of the Jags. Jags to win at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore Line: -17.0
For a team that competed with the Patriots, a seventeen point line has got to be an insult right? Well, consider that while the Patriots have shitty pass defense, the Ravens have a superior pass and rush defense. Now that Flacco has finally learned to hand the ball to Ray Rice more often, the Ravens are looking unstoppable. I mean, at for the moment. The playoffs could be another issue altogether. The Colts, in their “suck for luck” campaign have some hope in Dan Orlovsky – just kidding. Remember him from the 0-16 Lions? Yeah, that’s probably some bad karma right there. I’d be surprised if Peyton is even on the Colts staff next year and not working the sideline with his brother as a QB coach or something. Ravens to win.

Chicago at Denver Line: -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I realize that this isn’t a true upset special, as the line favors the Broncos – but no one else does. Many of us who have man love for Tim Tebow are rooting for the Broncos, but the haters are just waiting for him to fail. If he makes it to the playoffs (and he will) they’ll be biting their lips waiting to see if he blows it. And if he does (he won’t) they’ll accuse him of not being clutch or whatever. The haters (including Elway) will find a way to bring Tebow down. But he won’t have any of it. It’s not about him, and he’s made that clear. Last week it was about him in the second half though, with 202 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He only rushed four times during the game. Surprised? The Bears will be too. John Fox has done an excellent job adjusting the offense to his QB’s strengths, rather than forcing him to learn a new system mid-season. Coach of the year for sure. Meanwhile, Martz as offensive coordinator for the Bears has done a shitty job adjusting anything for the constantly struggling Caleb Hanie. His “west coast” offense is not eay for a rookie to pick up, much less mid-season. Perhaps Cutler comes back this game, perhaps not but with Forte out for the season most likely – the Bears are done. Doesn’t matter, I was going to pick the Broncos no matter what. Broncos at home.

San Francisco at Arizona Line: +4.0
With a month to go in the season, the Niners have already locked up the division, even though technically Arizona and the Seahawks are in the wild-card hunt (is the NFC that bad this year?) That being said, while Arizona pulled off an improbable victory against the Cowboys, attempting to do that against the Niners is going to be a bit more difficult. The Niners defense is tighter than a… I’ll leave that metaphor to your imagination. The Cardinals won by finding the glaring holes in the Cowboys run defense and because Romo sucks. The Niners keep winning on great defense and killer passing from young Alex Smith who is on his way to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Niners to win.

Oakland at Green Bay Line: -11.5
Meh. The Packers might toy with the Raiders for a little while, letting them score some points. The defense might give up some points, but they can score too. The Raiders have been decimated with injuries and penalties. That ass kicking they took at the hands of the Dolphins also helped them lose their standing in the division. They aren’t out of it yet, but they are this week. The Packers are unstoppable, especially by an inferior team like the Raiders. Should be fun for Palmer, just cause he gets to meet Rodgers, the QB that Palmer could have been had he been just a tad better. Packers to win.

Buffalo at San Diego Line: -7.0
What to say about the Bills? I think the loss of Fred Jackson hurt this team more than previously assumed. Spiller has been carrying the load, and doing alright, but the offense hasn’t been the same. Not to mention the defense suddenly giving up big plays late in the game. Last week against the Titans they gave up tons of yards to CJ2K and while the Chargers don’t have explosive a runner, Tolbert isn’t terrible in the backfield. The question for the Chargers is the consistency, something that hasn’t been there. Breaking a six game losing streak the Chargers now absolutely have to win to think about breaking even for the season. I’m taking the Bills in this game just because I don’t think the Chargers are for real this season. I could be wrong, because the Chargers have “charged” up late in the season in previous seasons, only to fall short come the playoffs. But those charges were contingent on the Broncos losing, which I don’t think they are going to do. Bills to somehow prevail on the road.

St. Louis at Seattle Line: -0.0
Meh. The Rams are nothing short of terrible, and the Seahawks somehow still have a chance at making the playoffs. They beat the Eagles, but so what? The Rams shouldn’t be much of a challenge, but who knows with this team? Taking the home team cause it’s easy. Seahawks at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 12

Thursday, November 24th, 2011

"If you drop one more pass, no Pumpkin Pie for you!!"

Happy Thanksgiving football fans. Today, of course is the day we celebrate some religiously persecuted folks and their slow but deliberate destruction of the indigenous peoples on this continent. Or something like that. Frankly, the whole thing is a bit fuzzy. All I know is that we eat a lot of Turkey, fight with our families and get completely blitzed. Oh yeah, there is also football. Three games this year, and for the first time in a long time – they don’t suck. How about that?

There is a lot of parity in the NFL this year, which probably accounts for my 101-59 (63%) record on the year. Last week I managed to pull a 10-4 week, but plenty of people at work made me look the fool with their 12-2 picks. Whatever. This week we return to 16 games, bye weeks are finally completely over (I called them over in week 10, forgetting that there were byes in week 11.) There are so many teams at 6-4 and 5-5 that it’s hard to get a good outlook for the playoffs. Teams like the Patriots could falter, while the Bills could wake the fuck up. What about the Lions? On a decline, they bounced back last week against the Panthers. You still in their camp?

Since it’s Thanksgiving, I’m going to theme todays post, just cause I can. Since this is the most awesome NFL column on the entire internets (besides TMQ) I can do that. On a side note, I’m selling some original Xbox games. Someone buy them. On another side note, I’m not making any picks this week. Instead, I’m cooking a delicious Thanksgiving dinner, 16 different and tasty dishes, laid out on the table for you to enjoy. So grab a fork, grab some peppermint schnapps and a glass of cheap ass wine. It’s time for Thanksgiving dinner!

Turkey (White Meat)

Green Bay at Detroit Line: +7.0
The undefeated Packers roll into Motown to face off with the faltering Lions. At one point, I had predicted that both these teams would be undefeated going into this game. Wouldn’t that have been something? Well, the Lions instead decided to start losing games through interceptions and terrible penalties. Last week they seemed to turn around in the second half and scoring enough points to beat the scrappy Panthers. This week however they face off against the best offense in the league. Sure, they’ll score some points and probably early, but I don’t see them ever holding a lead or winning the game. However, this is going to be a great game on the offensive side of the ball for sure. If Stafford makes the mistakes he made last week though, expect the Packers to really run away with the game. That defense, while allowing a lot of points, is unforgiving when it comes to taking advantage of turnovers. Packers to win on the road.

Honey Baked Ham

San Francisco at Baltimore Line: -4.5
A win here would be so freaking sweet for the Niners. They are headed directly for the playoffs and an East coast win against a tough team would solidify that quest. Of course, they’ve already beaten the Lions, so they’ve had a tough test. The Ravens present a different test though, but I’m not sure what it is. The Ravens run defense has been suspect of late, and the Niners run game is the best in the league. The evolution of Crabtree and Alex Smith into a dynamic duo has been fun to watch. This game also features the match-up of Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh. Which brother will win? I think it’ll once again (for the Ravens) come down to the offense, which has sputtered lately. They came alive against the Bengals just long enough to put the game away, but fought the whole time. The Niners are much better than the Bengals and this is put up or shut up time. I think the Niners put up. Niners to win on the road. Sweet.

Mashed Potatoes

Miami at Dallas Line: -7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
As if Thanksgiving day isn’t interesting enough with the other two games, this one is mashed right in the middle. A buttery and delicious pairing that four weeks ago we wouldn’t have given one blink about. However, the Dolphins are on a three game tear, and they are looking good doing it. Last week they plastered the Bills, while the Cowboys had to take their drama to overtime to beat the Redskins. Romo looked like he does on paper and played a good game, but the defense let the Redskins stay in the game. Matt Moore is out for some revenge against the team that drafted and waived him, but I also said the Bills would revenge against the Cowboys and they got pistol whipped. The Dolphins are playing solid defense, and this is their chance to prove that they aren’t sucking for Luck. Matt Moore could do well to land himself a starting job. So I’m taking the Dolphins to mash the Cowboys, if only by a small margin. Dolphins to upset on the road.

Turkey (Dark Meat)

Chicago at Oakland, 4:05 Line: -4.5
Do no underestimate the Raiders. While they are still back and forth on defense, they are in no way a team that should be overlooked. And yeah, a 6-5 record and the Broncos biting at their heels isn’t indicative of a full playoff ready run. The offense is starting to seriously click with Carson Palmer (go figure.) Bad news for the Bears, Jay Cutler is out, probably for the rest of the season. So backup Caleb Hanie is ready to take over the reigns. But wait, what’s this? There are reports that the Bears are looking at newly release Kyle Orton. That is not a vote of confidence in the young Hanie. In fact, it’s a bit of an insult to both Hanie and Cutler. Even though Orton has a history with the Bears, it’s too late to bring in a new QB. Hanie knows the system. We’ll see how he does against the Raiders I suppose. Plus, there are other teams higher on the waiver wire that will get first crack at Orton. More on that in a second. This game is going to be a dark, violent, evil affair down there in the pit of the Colosseum. I’m taking the Raiders to prevail in the darkness.

Stuffing

New York at New Orleans Line: -7.0
Here’s a game that really matters this week. Both teams playoff hopes are hanging in the balance and they desperately need a win to push them towards the top. The Giants looked weird last week, taking a loss off a late fumble by Eli Manning. Not sure how he didn’t see that coming. An off week for the Saints should breathe new life into an offense that hasn’t been as explosive this year as it has been in previous years. Don’t get me wrong, it’s been good just not crazy good. The Giants pass rush and run defense is going to be the key here, which means Manning needs to sustain drives to give his defense a proper rest. I think he’ll have trouble doing that. I’m taking the Saints to win at home.

Gravy

New England at Philadelphia Line: +3.0
Every meal on Thanksgiving needs a big pile of brown slop to pour on top right? For me, the gravy is the slow decline of the Eagles season after Vick got a huge contract. Yeah, they got some new life last week and Vince Young was able to pull of an improbable win that he probably shouldn’t have. However, who cares? This is about the mega love the media (save for yours truly) gave the Eagles and Vick. I’m glad they suck, cause I love being right and I haven’t liked this team from the start. Yes, McCoy is having a killer season, and he’s going to run at will against the Patriots, who prefer to allow as many points as humanly possible before scoring more points than the other team. The gravy is when the Eagles lose this game and are put away for good, way out of contention for the playoffs and then the media can shut the fuck up about this team. Patriots to win.

Giblets

Cleveland at Cincinnati Line: -7.5
Gah. Who cares? The Browns suck! My Dawgs did everything they could to lose that game last week, but still won thanks to terrible play calling by Jack Del Rio and the Jags. They should have lost, they deserved to lose and keep getting minor accolades for winning. The defense has sparks of greatness and can certainly contain the run, but Haden has as many penalty yards as great plays. He’s young and makes mistakes. The running game has been crap since Hillis went out with his mystery hammy injury, though Obyganna (whatever) hasn’t been half bad. The Bengals meanwhile came real close to beating the Ravens last week and where Ponder is a good rookie who loses and Tebow is a terrible rookie who wins, Dalton is a good rookie who wins. He makes smart decisions, accurate passes and only the loss of AJ Green last week (in my estimation) kept the Bengals from winning the game. Dalton needs that deep threat. This week though, all he would need is a dog who can catch a football. Bengals to win.3

Canned Cranberry Sauce

Minnesota at Atlanta Line: -9.5
Where Tebow has his constant detractors while he is winning games, Ponder seems to have nothing but love and good happy feelings as he’s losing games. Why? Cause he’s not spouting Jesus love in the locker room after games? Or because he’s a more accurate passer? Either way, he’s still making plenty of rookie mistakes and the defense is doing all they can to keep games close. The Vikings should have beaten the Raiders last week, but didn’t. They just couldn’t keep Ponder from making some crucial errors, but hey, he’s a rookie right? Bullshit. This week they go dome to dome to play the Falcons, who had a tough go of it last week, but seemed in control the whole game. The Falcons need every win they can get if they want to beat out the Saints for the NFC South crown. I don’t think the Vikings will get in their way too much, unless Ponder suddenly turns into not a rookie. Falcons to win at home.

Candied Yams

Carolina at Indianapolis Line: +4.0
At first I was like, “hmm, the Colts need to win one game this season right? This could be the one. Coming in after a bye week, they could be raring to go.” Then I remembered that they truly do suck major balls. The Panthers are playing well, and in the rookie QB conversation Cam Newton is right there at the top. But some serious defensive woes and his offensive line keeping him on the run have kept this team from reaching their true potential. Against the Colts though, they are going to look like gods. The Colts have failed to slow down any runners this season, so I expect Cam and Jonathan Stewart to put up huge rushing yards against the Colts. Hell, they can just run the whole game and suck up time. At least that half of the game will be fun to watch. Panthers to win on the road.

Green Beans

Houston at Jacksonville Line: +3.5
Just so you know, this is the last game I’m writing about this week. Yeah, some kind of order right? For the first time in, well, ever the Texans are all but assured a playoff berth at the top of the division. But they have to keep up their winning ways and hope they don’t falter with Leinart at the helm. We all thought they would when Andre Johnson went out, they didn’t. When Arian Foster was out for a while, we thought they were dead in the water again, but Tate stepped up. I think this is a well coached team that has a solid chance at winning in the first round. So this week, Leinart gets a moderately easy refresher with the Jags. They lost to the Browns last week. The Browns! They suck. Texans to win.

Cornbread

Washington at Seattle Line: -4.5
The Seahawks beat the Ravens. Do you remember that? While they have no chance at the playoffs, they followed that up with a whipping of the Rams. On the other side of the ball, the Redskins can’t decide who they want to hold the ball under center. That, and the fact that Shanahan still likes making dumb ass time management decisions and challenges ultimately dooms this team. Grossman played well against the Cowboys, but once again their secondary was almost nonexistent, letting Romo do whatever he wanted. Yeah, the Seahawks don’t have that kind of offense, but they do have a consistent running game and a strong run defense. I think they shut down the Redskins offense, who certainly don’t travel well, and win at home. That’s what I think.

Tossed Salad

Buffalo at NY Jets Line: -8.5
The 5-5 Bills, who have been losing like a bunch of chumps lately ride into New York (New Jersey) to meet the 5-5 Jets who have been losing like a bunch of chumps lately. There is nothing spectacular about this game. It’s a toss up as to who is going to play just good enough to win. Where the Jets defense was once undefeatable, the Bills offense was just as strong. Now, they both are looking lethargic as Sanchez and Fitzpatrick are proving they are not elite quarterbacks and probably never will be. Thanks to some clever negotiating, Fitzpatrick has his huge contract, then he started losing. The Jets running game is hurting, and the Bills running game isn’t looking any better with Jackson out this week. So that kills the play action and leaves it on the offensive lines to protect long enough for passing. I think the Bills still have a better receiver core, and will win the passing game. For that reason, I’m taking the Bills to win by a slight margin, but really, this game could go either way.

Pumpkin Pie

Denver at San Diego Line: -7.0
The 5-5 Denver Tebows now get a solid challenge in division rival (and also 5-5) NOrv Turner led Chargers. Of course, Norv (how does he still have a job) Turner is only getting worse as time goes on. It’s like the guy never looks at the clock. His management, coaching, of his team is getting worse. No wonder they look like they don’t want to be there. The Chargers are in a sad state of affairs these days, because they have the talent but the drive seems to be missing. Rivers is a good quarterback at heart, but he makes too many mistakes under Norv’s system. So what about the Broncos? Well, they just released Orton, pretty much saying they are putting their money behind Tebow. Elway isn’t sold, which is kind of douchey because Tebow has better stats in his first eight games than Elway had (see below inforgraphic.) No matter what you or Jake Plummer think about the guy, he’s a winner. As Tebow super fan @mbletschtold me about this game, “If he wins, I bet you Norv Turner gets fired. TEBOW!!” I’m Tebowing all over the place these days. Whipped cream baby, just not on any chicks breasts. Tebow won’t have any of that. Broncos to win on the road.

Uh, shut the hell up Elway.

Pecan Pie

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Line: +10.5
Really though, when it comes down to it there is nothing we like more in football more than a nice old fashioned ass whipping. And here’s your ass whipping game this week. The Chiefs are floundering. Cassel is done for the season, nice waste of money there. And you want to talk about inaccurate passing? Take a look at freaking Palko. He threw three interceptions last week, and yeah, it was against the Patriots but who cares? He missed many passes, especially down the sideline. It wasn’t all about lack of protection either, the kid just isn’t ready for the big show. Against the Steelers? He’s got to be shitting in his goddamn boots. The Steelers will crush the Chiefs this weekend, into a substance resembling the gooey center of a pecan pie. Steelers to win.

Collard Greens

Tampa Bay at Tennessee Line: -3.5
If I’m not mistaken (as I often am) Chris Johnson averaged like 1.1 yards a carry last game, really stinking up the joint. Kind of a disgrace after that huge contract he was given for the last couple of years. Consider that back pay buddy. Last week, Hasselbeck was out and Jake Locker came in and almost brought the Titans back against a tougher Falcons team. He’s about to get into the conversation about rookie QB’s. I’m not sure who is playing this weekend, though it looks like Hasselbeck will get the start. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think Locker is going to be a great quarterback. The kid is damn good and I think the Titans should just go ahead and play him this weekend, let him learn the system and get some experience. Hasselbeck is gone next year, probably retired and the Titans aren’t making the playoffs this year (though not mathematically out.) Either way, the Bucs are too inconsistent on both sides of the ball this year to really be much of a threat to anyone – save for the Packers. What happened last week was just the Packer defense challenging the offense by letting the Bucs think they had a chance. They didn’t. Titans to win at home.

Leftovers

Arizona at St. Louis Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Oh shit, there’s another game this week. I almost forgot this match-up because pretty much everyone in the NFL universe couldn’t give a shit about this game. Both teams are playing like shit, both teams have no chance at a winning record and both teams make the other one look that much better. Do you think the Rams can manage to protect Bradford long enough to complete a pass? How about that Skelton guy? He’s making Kolb look better day by day and vice versa. No microwave in the world could heat up this mess to make it look appetizing. Just throw out the paper plates and order a pizza. Rams to win at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 11

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

My picks last week were like Vick's ribs

So last week, sucked. Let’s not talk about last week. It makes me very, very sad. Like super sad. Like mega super ultra sad. Let me just say this, I have never had a week as bad as last week. I’m tracking stats, so I’ll look at them next week. Until that point, I’m going to go soak my head. I’m supposed to be an expert right? Apparently not. So, that has kind of made me a little crazy. This week, I’m going off the deep end with my picks.

In other news, right now it’s around 6am pacific time as I’m writing this. The only reason that is significant is that I’m in Los Angeles attending the L.A. Auto Show. I wasn’t sure if there was even going to be a column this week, due to my schedule. But I can’t let my biggest fan @mbletsch down. So, I have about an hour to write this, so I’m going to knock down the normal 3000 word column and do the quick version. Each game will still be represented, my analysis is just going to be a bit more brief. So, let’s get it on! I’m getting hungry for some trendy breakfast.

Featured Game

Philadelphia at NY Giants Line: -3.5
This game is featured cause this is where the Eagles disappear. This where Sportscenter stops talking about the mathematical posibility of the Eagles making the playoffs. It’s not going to happen. They are going to lose this game, with Vince Young stepping in for a rib broken Mike Vick, and they are going to fade into obscurity. Good bye Eagles. Fuck off. Giants to win.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

NY Jets at Denver Line: +5.5
Vegas has taken out an over/under on Tebows completions at 11. I’m taking the over. He’s going to have to pass against the Jets. Their mega blitz is going to push him out of the box like crazy. That being said, the Broncos have the magic of Tebow and for that reason, and that reason alone I’m taking them to win at home. Yep.

Jacksonville at Cleveland Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Who cares? The Jags beat the Colts last week because Painter sucks. The Browns missed a game winning field goal because of the fucking long snapper. You have ONE job dude, and you messed it up. Go sell used cars. Browns to win at home.

Carolina at Detroit Line: -7.0
Detroit has lost three of the last four. What is going on with this team? They are falling fast, but they return home to that very loud crowd. Let’s see if Cam Newton can fight off the noise of the crowd, and the toughest defense he’s faced yet. However, that defense has been shit lately. I’m sticking with the Lions to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay Line: -14.0
Ha. This line is too generous. If the Bucs don’t lose by 35 points in Green Bay I’ll be surprised. I’m sure this young team would love to come back and get an upset win, but it’s not going to happen. Green Bay is your repeat Superbowl champion. I have no choice but to predict that happening. Green Bay to win at home.

Buffalo at Miami Line: -2.0
This match-up is one of my favorites every year. These two teams play each other like it’s a fucking playoff game. The rest of the year doesn’t matter when these rivals meet. While the Dolphins are on a hot streak right now, and the Bills are on a low streak they are meeting somewhere in the middle. I’m going off the diving board head first and picking the Dolphins to win. I have no idea why, just doing it.

Oakland at Minnesota Line: -1.0
Vikings aren’t looking too bad. I mean, they got smoked by the Packers last week, but they aren’t sucking it up really. Ponder is showing great progression as a starting QB. The Raiders, are winning their division but only by one game. The whole division behind them is tied. They have to win this game. They won’t. Peterson is going to slice them up. I’m taking the Vikings to win at home.

Dallas at Washington Line: +8.0
Did you see the Cowboys last week? They were dominant. Did you see the Redskins last week? Name their starting QB. Didn’t think so. Shanahan is losing it, his decision making suggests dementia. The Cowboys are going to make the Redskins home crowd all sad and shit. Cowboys to win.

Cincinnati at Baltimore Line: -9.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
The Ravens went to Seattle and lost. A week after beating the Steelers for the second time this year. Finally, they are back home after their stupid west coast trip and welcome the Bengals. The Bengals lost to the Steelers last week, knocking them back to reality. Can they hurdle the Ravens this week? I think this is the upset brewing. I think the Ravens offense is confused right now for some reason, and Dalton held it together against the Steelers, it wasn’t a blowout. It was a loss. I’m taking the Bengals to upset.

Seattle at St. Louis Line: -3.0
The Seahawks surprisingly beat the Ravens last week, and the Rams got lucky against the Browns. Who cares? The Niners seal up the division with a win today, finally ending the sadness of a losing team getting to the playoffs from the NFC West. For the rest of the year, these two teams are playing for second place, with no chance of smelling the ass crack of the playoffs. Who cares who wins this game? Whatever. I’m taking the Rams.

Arizona at San Francisco Line: -10.0
Meh. Niners to win and complete their amazing rise to power. Next stop, playoffs.

Tennessee at Atlanta Line: -6.5
The Oilers, er, Titans are the up and down, hot and cold team of the year. They had a great week last week, but who knows how they are going to be this week? The Falcons blew it in overtime to the Saints. You’ve gotta run some fucking misdirection on fourth and short plays! It was a good decision, just bad execution. I think the Falcons hold it together this week and rebound with a strong win, staying in the race for the NFC South. Falcons at home.

San Diego at Chicago Line: -4.0
The Chargers are the other hot and cold team. Actually, they are just cold. They are painful to watch, and I’m glad I’m not a Chargers fan. The good news is they are in a 3 way tie for second place in the division, so they still have a shot. They don’t have a shot against the Bears at home though, who have been dominating lately. That win against the Lions was fucking huge. HUGE. Bears to win at home.

Kansas City at New England Line: -14.5
Upset special… just kidding. The Patriots are looking more like the Patriots, but what the hell is up with the defense lately? They are making it harder for Brady and the offense. And he finally passed down the field to Ochocinco. You have to use that deep threat more often to open up the play action, just like using the run. Do it. Patriots to win.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Indianapolis
The Colts, ugh. Suck for Luck right?

Bye Week at New Orleans
The Saints still have some work to do if they want to win the division. They have to keep the Falcons at bay. Cause the wild card is not coming from this division. It’s going to be the Bears or the Lions.

Bye Week at Pittsburgh
The Steelers can’t coast to the division title this year. The Ravens and the Bengals are making it a fight. A fight worth watching. Like two hot chicks at a frat party fighting in the pool. Take it off! Take it off!

Bye Week at Houston
Everyone keeps saying that this is the year for Houston. Until Schaub got injured last week. Now, he’ll probably be out for the season. So can Houston keep winning? I think so, because it’s been the running game and the defense that has been winning games.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 10

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Can the magic Ginger & AJ Green beat the Steelers?

Let’s not bust any time this week. I have a busy schedule. Last week I added some gut picking to the picks. I’m dumping that. It was nice, but I actually ended up exactly the same, 8-6, as my thoughtful picks. I’m a little pissed off at my season total, 84-46 (65%) but it appears the goofballs at CBS Sports (where I frequently get my NFL news, I don’t know why) aren’t doing much better. So that’s nice. I feel a little bit better. I also feel okay because the games were so damn close last week, at least, the ones that I lost.

In other NFL news, the bye weeks are over. So that means two things. One, I’m back to picking sixteen full games. And two, it means that the Thursday night games start. I don’t like the Thursday night games because that means that’s one less game on NFLRedZone on Sunday. And I’m not staying up Thursday night to midnight to watch the game. Especially since I just got Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 and if I’m going to stay up, it’s going to be cause I’m getting my ass kicked by ten year olds online.

In other non NFL news, a happy belated birthday to my one female reader, Jennifer H. She just turned 30 or something. I don’t know. Either way, she’s older than her husband. Not a cougar, just a cradle robber. I mean, not now, but when they started dating. I think he was like 12 and she was 15 or something. Does that mean he’s got game or she doesn’t? I don’t know. Either way, happy birthday and feel free to name your pending baby after me or any NFL quarterback besides John Beck.

Featured Game

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
There are a lot of huge games this week, divisional match-ups and non divisional playoff type games. It was hard to choose which game to put up here in the top spot, but considering the Bengals position, it had to be them. They are the surprise lead in the AFC North, but have not played either the Ravens or the Steelers. This week, they welcome Pittsburgh to Ohio to finally take on the Steelers, which will be the real test of their mettle. The Steelers lost a squeaker to the Ravens (of which time management was again the enemy) after beating the Patriots. So what to think about them? We know they have a great defense, but the Bengals defense is also top three. Most of the experts are picking the Bengals to finally prove themselves, but they forget about that rookie QB at the helm. Yes, Dalton has played well so far, but he has not met a defense as good as his or as tough as the Steelers. It will be a bit of a shock. Dalton, I’d like you to meet James Harrison and the rest of the Steelers front D-line. Good luck. Steelers to win on the road and reset balance to the AFC North.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Oakland at San Diego Line: -7.0
Carson Palmer showed he’s still got the moves, throwing for over 300 yards and 3TD’s in his second start in Oakland. Don’t mind the 3 interceptions though. Or the fact that Oakland got beat hard by the Broncos defense. Who saw that coming? This week, they are hoping to get back to form against a struggling and confused Chargers team. Is this team from San Diego any good? Or is Rivers clearly still struggling under coach Norv Turner and his terrible time management and decision making skills? Rivers also threw 3 interceptions last week, 2 of them for touchdowns. Otherwise, he had a good game against a Green Bay defense that doesn’t seem to give a shit. I don’t expect him to pick apart the Oakland defense, as they generally play QB’s like Rivers a bit closer to the belt than guys like Tebow. Close game, but I’m taking the home team. Chargers to win.

New Orleans at Atlanta Line: -1.0
The killer divisional match-ups start right here in the dome in Atlanta. I’m going to say right now I’m leaning towards the Falcons. At home, Matt Ryan looks like a freaking god. They picked apart the Colts last week and only a pick six kept it from being a total shut-out. The Saints smacked around the lethargic Bucs, but clearly looking ahead to this game. The key of course is going to be whether or not Atlanta can shut down Darren Sproles amazing skills past the line of scrimmage. I’m going to say the holes in the Saints secondary will be enough for the Falcons to come out ahead. Falcons to win by a nose.

St. Louis at Cleveland Line: -3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
While there are tons of great games, there are also a few games like this. Will the Rams be able to compete after several weeks on the road and getting beat in overtime by a terrible Arizona team? Will the Browns, who have shown nothing on offense and whose defense is slowly getting worse be able to secure a much needed home win so their fans don’t finally desert them? It’s hard to say. What is easy to say is that both these teams are performing no where near their potentials and are right where they deserve to be. The Browns would benefit from only giving the ball to Josh Cribbs, since he’s the only competent offensive player on the team right now. Browns to barely win at home.

Buffalo at Dallas Line: -5.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
On paper this is a so-so game, but in reality this game could be a make it or break it game for both teams. Last week the Bills were smacked down to reality by a Jets defense that didn’t allow Fred Jackson to run hog wild the whole game. While the Cowboys defense won’t offer as much resistance, the Bills defense will have to worry about stopping the run of explosive rookie back DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys have some ground to cover if they want to climb up and compete with the Giants who are secretly running away with the division. With half the season behind them, now is the time. However, the Bills are not just going to lay down now. Last weeks loss should have woken them up, rather than set them down. They have to contend with the Patriots. Plus, after settling an old score with the Redskins, the Bills have the same score to settle with the team that beat them in two Superbowls. Bills to win on the road.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis Line: +3.0
Last year, this would have been an easy choice. You would have said, “Peyton, no question. Colts to win.” This week the Colts are coming off a serious drubbing at home by the Falcons, and have yet to pull a win this season. There is no way the team is intentionally losing, but they certainly look like they aren’t trying very hard. Have they given up already? If the opposing defense promises to only two hand touch Peyton can he come in and play? Poor Curtis Painter, he’ll never get another starting gig in the NFL unless he can make something happen this season, which means, get a fucking win. Could this be the week? The hot and cold Jaguars come to town after a bye week and previously beating the Ravens in a strange turn of defensive prowess. If they even have a little bit of that defense, the Colts shouldn’t be an issue. But I don’t think they Colts have a 0-16 season in them, not in the defense and not in the spirit of the team. This is win number one, if only their only win this season. Colts at home.

Denver at Kansas City Line: -3.5
Did you start Tim Tebow in fantasy football last week? Sure he only had a little over a hundred yards passing, but he had over a hundred rushing and two touchdowns. Finally the Denver coaching staff realized they can’t put a young and maturing Tebow in a traditional spread offense. Instead, they adapted to the college style read option which Tebow owned while he was at Florida. In this, and strong defense by the Broncos, he is now 2-1 as a starter. Say what you want about the guy, but he is more of a winner than a loser. So suffice it to say, the Chiefs will have watched some tape this week, if they have gotten over their sorry loss to the Dolphins. The Chiefs, after winning four in a row, quickly reverted back to how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Did they get too cocky? Ahead of themselves? The Broncos, mathematically, can still win this division. No matter how plucky the KC defense is, I think that the read option beats them. Denver Tebows to win. Yeah, I’m picking it. And starting him in fantasy.

Washington at Miami Line: -4.0
I think someone on the Miami staff reads this column. They must. The week I declare that I will no longer pick them to win, they roll into Kansas City and deliver a royal smack down. They looked like a playoff caliber team. Moore threw well, Bush looked like a rookie again and they dominated on defense. Where has this team been all season? I’d like to think I was the one who motivated them to this point. That’s probably not true, but whatever. Based soley on the performance of the Dolphins last week and the fact that the Redskins have about as much offense with John Beck as a high school flag football team, Dolphins to rack up their second win.

Arizona at Philadelphia Line: -0.0
You can stare at that line all you want, it’s not going to change. This is a zero line game and for good reason, both these teams have an overpriced quarterback who isn’t worth his salt. To add fuel to the fire, last week with Kolb out, Skelton came in and won the game. Ok, to be fair to the defense, Skelton didn’t do shit. A huge blocked field goal and an overtime pick-6 secured the win. That’s what did it. Kolb might miss another start against the team that might be wishing they’d have kept him on. Instead, they get to watch Vick throw interception after interception and get hit on almost every play. It’s hard to protect your QB if he’s no longer standing anywhere near you. Regardless, the Cardinals offense is almost nonexistent. Barely beating the Rams, who have been the recipients of blowouts this year, doesn’t bode well for them against a stronger defensive team like the Eagles. I hate to do it, but Eagles to win.

Houston at Tampa Bay Line: +3.0
The Texans are flexing their AFC South dominant muscles now. They’ve all but secured what turned out to be a pretty shitty division this year. Rolling into Tampa with probably the best running game tandem in Tate and Foster is pretty much an automatic win right? Right? Right. The Tampa Bay Sucs (can we go back to that now) have been my most inconsistently picked team this year. I think that’s cause I inexplicably went against the grain and actually decided they might be good this year even though I hate them. Fuck that logic. I’m right back to hating them, as only once have I picked them correctly, and that was last week against the Saints. No more of that noise. Plus, the Texans are too damn good right now and the Sucs Barber can’t be everywhere on the field, committing penalties. Texans to win on the road.

Tennessee at Carolina Line: -3.5
You know, any recent season, with the Panthers terrible run defense and the presence of Chris Johnson, one might be easily swayed to pick the Titans to win this game. This year? With the Panthers crappy run defense and Chris Johnson unable to rack up fifty yards a game, one might be tempted to pick the Panthers to win. Especially with the electric Cam Newton at QB. But, as Michael Vick is proving, being electric doesn’t mean shit if you don’t win games, and the Panthers do not have a winning record. Instead, they come off a bye and welcome the struggling Titans to town who looked mediocre at best last week against the Bengals and lost. This week, they’ll look mediocre at best against the Panthers, and lose. Panthers at home.

Baltimore at Seattle Line: +7.0
After a rough game against the Steelers, as everyone knew it was going to be, the Ravens get to travel all the way to the west coast to take on the Seahawks. Who put that shit in that order on the schedule? Either way, the Ravens, while at time sluggish on offense, are always strong on defense. The veteran defensive players probably travel better than Joe Flacco and his on again off again offense. Plus, the Seahawks have no offense. I mean, technically they have one that is on the field, but they suck at it. The question is, will they finish low enough to draft a QB first round? Ravens to win on the road.

Detroit at Chicago Line: -3.0
This is a tough one in Chicago. The Bears just made the Eagles look like a practice squad last week, while the Lions were taking a nap after a few strange losses (and an ass whipping of Denver.) So this divisional match-up actually means something this year. It won’t matter in the long run though, as the Packers will continue to roll. Well, strike that. My guess is that the wild card in the NFC is coming from this division (since it certainly is not coming from the West) so this game is important. It’s tough to choose though. Both teams are playing smash mouth defensive football, but the Lions have looked better in their wins, while the Bears have looked worse in their losses. I’m going to shake the bones here and see where they land. Ah, the bones have spoken. High scoring game, Bears to prevail at home by a late field goal. Especially if there is outdoor weather involved.

New York at San Francisco Line: -3.0
This game just got bigger than you would have thought. Did you think at the beginning of the season you’d be looking at a 7-1 San Francisco 49′ers? Did you? Did you? No, you didn’t. You thought they were just going to be another cog in the crap fuming machine of the NFC West. Now, with seven wins they have all but locked up the division. Think about it. Last year, the Seahawks won the division at 7-9. The Niners can coast the rest of the season, but they won’t. But that certainly will change the way they play. Crabtree is finally playing to his potential, the defense is lights out, especially against the run and that Alex Smith kid got the chance and the right coach to become a quality QB. So the Giants, and their newly crowned “elite” quarterback roll into town after upsetting the Patriots. This is going to be a huge game for both teams, but the Giants need the win more. But needing doesn’t get you getting and I’m taking the Niners to satisfy the home crowd and come out of this East coast vs. West coast battle a surprising, but now expected, 8-1. Niners at home.

New England at NY Jets Line: -1.0
Oh Tom Brady, what happened buddy? You lost two in a row, and one at home. Ouch. That’s gotta sting something fierce. I bet you used extra conditioner that night. That being said, every single “expert” that I read today are sticking with the Patriots, running with the stat that Brady has never lost three in a row. News flash asshats, Brady isn’t the only guy on that team. And his interceptions aside, the defense is doing two things; jack and shit. They aren’t closing down the run, they aren’t winning the turnover battle and the secondary seems confused. Back to Brady, he’s got no deep threat. While Welker does his due, he’s not a downfield receiver. That’s killing the offense. The Jets, while a bit slow developing an offensive attack have been outstanding on defense. Revis is going to be defensive player of the year the way he’s going. The Jets are fired up and hot after their strong win over Buffalo. Can the Pats rebound on the road? Can the Jets get another huge divisional win? These questions and more will be answered Sunday… SUNDAY SUNDAY. Hell, Jets to win. Out.

Minnesota at Green Bay Line: -14.0
While the other NFC North game was hard to pick, this one is easy. Like Brett Favre before him, Aaron Rodgers has the same strange disease that only afflicts him on Monday Night. It’s like this, on Monday Night, he’s unstoppable. The Packers are unstoppable this year. Even after a nail biter against the Chargers, the Packers played it cool and kept the game further out of reach than the score would indicate. Christian Ponder is getting his third start, second against the Packers. He’ll do okay. Pat the kid on the head. There is no way he’s winning this game though. Not in Green Bay. Not this year. Packers to win.

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