I’d like to quote a sentence from my NFC predictions about the Eagles: “But I’m going to say this now – they won’t even win the division.” Look, I went a terrible 7-6 this week. That sucks for only thirteen games. And when all is said and done after the season is over, you’ll see that a lot of my picks for the playoffs were dead wrong. I said the Bills might compete, they are kicking ass. I said the Raiders won’t compete, they are. So it’s not a perfect system. I call it as I see it. So that brings me to 53-24 (69%) on the season. If I was a head coach I’d still have a job. So now we have week 6 and the biggest questions are still if the Bills are legit, if the Lions are legit, if Tim Tebow is legit and if the Steelers are legit. We know the Patriots are legit, the Texans will blow it and the Eagles blow ass. On with the picks!

Featured Game

Bye Week at Denver
You are probably wondering why this is my featured game when it’s not actually a game. Well, besides being unable to decide on a featured game since they are all good matchups I decided to go with the biggest story right now, and that’s Tim Tebow. Tebow time is finally here. Down 26-10 in the fourth quarter, Tim Tebow fired up his team and staged a comeback that was only lost on a missed 2 point conversion. Tebow brings an energy to the Denver squad that can’t be denied and this bye week couldn’t come at better time. Now Fox has two weeks to draw up some Tebow specific plays. I haven’t looked at Denver’s schedule yet, but I’m picking them to win next week.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Carolina at Atlanta Line: -5.5
Cam Newton almost pulled off the biggest win of his career, but his 200+ yards and three TD’s didn’t band-aid a defense that allowed way too many 3rd down conversions. They aren’t going to fare much better against the Falcons in the dome. While the Falcons didn’t do much better against Green Bay, they were up against one of the best defenses in the league and kept the game relatively close. They seemed to fall apart in the second half. Whomever is leading this game at half time should win. I’m a little torn on this one, because I really want to pick the Panthers but I think that Atlanta will prevail at home.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati Line: -6.0
Tough loss for the Colts, allowing the Chiefs to stage a huge comeback. Their run defense has a lot of holes and that’s something the Bungles seem to be doing right. Of course, it took a last second effort to pull a win out against the Jags, but I don’t think at home, against the struggling Colts should take a last minute effort. While Painter and Garcon have discovered each other, it’s not going to be enough to beat the Bungles ever growing stronger defense. While not a playoff team, they are good enough to beat the Peyton-less Colts. Bungles at home.

San Francisco at Detroit Line: -6.0
Wow. The Niners had over 400 yards of offense. Three touchdowns from Alex Smith with no interceptions against the Bucs. Not to mention the defense coming strong with three picks, one returned for a TD. They looked dominant. The rushing yards alone were around 200. But now they travel to Detroit to meet the 5-0 Lions who are looking for a record sixth win. Detroit is playing strong football right now and I don’t see them having any losses when they face Green Bay on Thanksgiving day. So until then, I’m picking Stafford and crew to keep winning. Plus, I have Calvin Johnson on my fantasy team. First WR ever to accrue nine TD’s in his first five games. That’s crazy good. Expect him to keep rolling. Lions to win at home.

St. Louis at Green Bay Line: -10.5
The Rams are coming off a bye week and this is not the team they want to face doing so. Maybe they can pump themselves up and stay in the game for a little bit, but this game is going to be a good old fashioned ass whipping. They have no answer for the Packers offense, no answer for the defense. Sam Bradford is going to be in tears by the end of the game. The one bright spot for the Rams is… none. I can’t think of one. The Packers will stay undefeated until they play the Lions on Thanksgiving, which will be the most epic Thanksgiving day game ever. Finally. Packers to win at home.

Buffalo at NY Giants Line: -2.0
The Giants. Sigh. They converted on several third downs on their last drive with good passing. Then, near the end zone Eli throws an obvious pick six. Hats off to the Seattle defense for recognizing a pattern a three year old could pick up. Eli is in love with receiver Victor Cruz, but forcing into double coverage in the red zone with plenty of time on the clock? What the hell? I guess if the Giants run game existed, that wouldn’t have been a problem. That and the disgusting inconsistency of the defense. The Giants are struggling. So why are they favored against the Bills? Cause they are playing in Snoopy stadium? Whatever. The Bills defense bailed out the offense against the Eagles last week, but did allow a comeback. Expect some of the same this week, the Giants jump out, the Bills jump ahead, the Giants come back, the Bills defense prevails. Bills to win on the road.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh Line: -9.5
Ok, so I was wrong about the Steelers last week. Chris Berman was right, if not now – when? The Steelers looked like the Steelers for the first time this season. Big Ben tossed five TD’s, the defense was tight and kept Chris Johnson in check the whole game. Sure, the running back by committee isn’t quite clicking for the Steelers, but against the Jags, at home – who cares? Ben plays better when he’s hurt, and he’s still limping. The Jags and their young QB show some potential, but potential doesn’t win games. And they won’t win this one. Steelers at home.

Philadelphia at Washington Line: +3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!
Being 100% right about the Eagles feels pretty good. I said they are not a playoff team, and Vick was overrated. Sure, he’s setting rushing records, but who gives a fuck? They aren’t winning. That’s the important thing isn’t it? They have to win games. He’s still making bad passing decisions, running too early and getting boxed up and just not playing like a good QB. Trust me, Tim Tebow is watching Vick and saying “don’t do that.” Meanwhile, the Redskins are surprisingly leading the NFC East. Not sure I saw that coming. The Skins need to keep that running game developing with Ryan Torain and push the Eagles on defense. Expect them to come after Vick strong. I’m going against the bookies and picking the Skins to upset at home, and I’m ashamed for the idiots that have them as an underdog.

Cleveland at Oakland Line: -3.0
The Raiders stole a win against the Texans for sure last week. Maybe they were inspired by the loss of Al Davis, who knows? Either way they were penalized a lot, but thankfully special teams held out so they could win. I dunno, this team shows sparks of being a competitor, and they have the leagues leading rusher, but still, they are week to week in my eyes. The Browns coming off a bye week have little to be happy about at the moment. A rough loss to the Titans exposed holes in a defense once thought to be strong. The rushing game is having trouble even with downstill strong man Hillis. The Browns have an uphill battle this week, as weak teams have problems playing in the pit. I’m taking Oakland to win, which I hate doing to my Browns, but they need to tighten up their game. If the Browns do win however, I won’t be too surprised, just pissed I didn’t pick them.

Houston at Baltimore Line: -7.0
Offhand I couldn’t tell you why Houston lost to the Raiders. Maybe there was magic in the air after the passing of Al Davis, I have no idea. A week after routing the Steelers, the Texans offensive line looked a bit weak, not giving Schaub enough time to stage a comeback. Not to mention the defense even allowing a comeback, yet holding the Raiders to under 300 yards total offense. Foster couldn’t get going, and the loss of Johnson hurts this team every day. The Ravens are tougher than the Steelers and have no questions when it comes to the steadfastness of their defense. The Texans are going to have problems protecting Schaub and even establishing a run game. I expect them to stay in it, but I expect the Ravens to stay ahead. Ravens to win at home.

Dallas at New England Line: -6.5
Pundits are saying that if the real Tony Romo stands up for this game that the Cowboys have a chance. I say it doesn’t matter. Unless Romo morphs into Steve Young, there is no way the Cowboys are going to roll into New England and have a rats chance in hell of winning. The Patriots, while defensively weak, are killing it in the passing and scoring game. You know, the bits that really matter. Wes Welker is on pace for like 2 million catches, and Tom Brady is on pace for like 80 gadzillion yards. Whatever. The Cowboys can compete, but only against teams like the Rams or maybe the Eagles. Against the highest scoring team in the NFL? Forget it. Pats at home.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay Line: -3.5
That line is wrong right? Look, the Saints struggled a little bit against the Panthers last week, but they pulled off the win. The defense was the problem, but Cam Newton has more offense in his little finger than the Bucs have shown all season. Last week they showed none as they got pistol whipped by the Niners. The fact is that while playing at home makes the Bucs a three point favorite, the home crowd isn’t going to give the Bucs enough of a bump to keep up with Drew Brees. I’d like to see them perform a bit, and really this is must-win game for them to stay up in the division, but they won’t. Saints on the road.

Minnesota at Chicago Line: -3.0 Crapfest of the Week!
This game is the crapfest of the week because of defense. The Bears allowed a 73 yard TD pass and an 88 yard TD run to the Lions. Show some respect, the Lions are a good team, but the Bears defense has looked like shit all season. They can’t seem to get any consistency on the contain, and their run defense and tackling is just plain sloppy. You think the Vikings are any different? After getting whipped by the Chiefs, they turn around and their defense gets it done. But trust me, that was a fluke. The Cardinals aren’t exactly the team to set defensive standards against. This game is going to come down to who can score the most points. Keeping the other team from scoring isn’t going to be a huge pressure point. That being said, I’m taking the Vikings to upset the Bears just because I think they have a little more offense. Oh, and Adrian Peterson. Just give him the ball, against the Bears run defense? He’ll have a career day.

Miami at NY Jets Line: -6.0
Needless to say, if you have any Jets players – start them in fantasy this week. The Dolphins have found ways to lose in every game this year, mostly by not being competetive at all. Henne is out, which means Moore, discarded by Carolina, will be behind center. Doesn’t matter. The defense can’t get it done, the offense is terrible and they are on the road. All factors point to a big Jets win. But wait, the Jets have been terribly inconsistent on defense as of late. Could this be the game for the Dolphins? No, it won’t. Jets to win at home. Man, that’s a lot of home teams this week that I’ve got winning. We’ll see if that gamble pays off. Statistically, it should. This could be a possible upset, but I’m sticking with the Jets.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Arizona
The offensive line is terrible, keeping Beanie Wells from finding holes and forcing Kolb to throw interceptions. They need to work on that, oh, and learning how to fucking tackle too. This team is only getting worse. Hopefully this bye week provides the reset that they sorely need.

Bye Week at Kansas City
Hey, nice comeback against the shitty Colts. That’s not going to be enough. Can the Chiefs beat anyone in their division this year? Probably not. It’s going to be a tough season. The loss of Jamaal Charles really struck this team hard. Cassel seems to be getting his shit together. Relax, take a week off, come back strong.

Bye Week at San Diego
The Chargers have problems. Their record won’t suggest it, but they do. And now they have the 1-4 Broncos in their rear view mirror. Watch out Chargers, Tebow is coming for you. Give him a whole game to do what he did in a quarter and the next match-up between these two teams will go the other way. On a side note, Teressa loves cats.

Bye Week at Seattle
For a brief moment, Seattle looked like a competent team with the potential to compete in their crappy division. Then Tavaris Jackson went down, nothing changed really. It was the defense that bailed them out last week, and it’ll be the defense that keeps this team in games. For the bye, they might want to work on building a nice passing game. If that’s possible.

Bye Week at Tennessee
After a strong week against the hapless Browns, the Titans more or less rolled over for the Steelers. So what is up with this team? One second they appear unstoppable, the next they appear as if they have no secondary? They don’t have an easy schedule so they might want to think about looking at some of the holes in their defense and figuring out a way to get Chris Johnson past the line of scrimmage.