Posts About ‘predicitions’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 9

Thursday, November 1st, 2012

At this point in the season I usually reveal my season percentage. Sadly, I haven’t been keeping real good track of my week to week record. I guess I could go back and add it all up, but I really don’t feel like doing that. You are welcome to do so though, last week I was 9-5 so you can tack that on to the previous weeks. If it helps, when I’m wrong – I’m royally wrong.

Well, the Cardinals did not upset the Niners last week, which means I didn’t get to look like a genius. In fact, Alex Smith looked like a playoff QB as he picked apart the Cardinals. Manning got a lot of praise as well as he picked apart the Saints secondary, and Tom Brady, well, he had the Rams in London. That game was pretty much a given for the Patriots. Then there was my boys, the Browns. The Browns beat the listless Chargers 7-6. Note the Browns tend to win or lose by single digits. They sink other teams right on down to their level. That’s why they are hard to pick. Wheedon isn’t looking half bad though.

I’ll tell you who is looking bad, Cam Newton. Last year he was on fire. His rookie year. People didn’t know what to expect. This year, his bag of tricks is all used up and he’s still making rookie mistakes, which are unforgivable at this point. He needs to buck up and start making better decisions. Speaking about better decisions, Vick didn’t turn over the ball at all this week and still managed to lose the game, even mentioning after the game that Reid might replace him at QB. Though the real loser was the Philly defense, who were working under a new coordinator. How’d that work out for you Reid? The Philly faithful are calling for his firing. I think it’s time.

In other news, those of you on the East Coast reading this, well, I hope you are reading this and not without power or stranded somewhere surrounded by shitty water. The rest of you can donate to Red Cross if you want to help. Don’t send food or clothes, just cash. In other, other news, it appears as if all games will be played this weekend, haven’t heard otherwise. So munch down on your kids Halloween candy and get ready for Week 9 picks!

Kansas City at San Diego -9.0
I don’t think there is a team worse than the Chiefs right now. The Chiefs are not playing inspired football. Quinn didn’t help, as went down with a head injury. Cassel made Carson Palmer look like John Elway. What a contrast. Meanwhile the Chargers are probably the most lethargic team in the league with that kind of offensive talent. What is going on there? I think they win this week, but hell, they aren’t going to catch the Broncos.

Denver at Cincinnati +3.5
Speaking about the Broncos, they looked great on Monday night as Manning systematically dismantled the New Orleans secondary. I don’t think he was pressured all night. If you don’t pressure Manning, he’ll kill you. I think the Bengals bring a shit ton of pressure on Manning and make this an exciting and close game, but I’m taking the Broncos. You’ll notice a lot of road teams are favored this week as well, but you have to be careful as statistics favor the home team.

Baltimore at Cleveland +3.5
Statistics in this match-up don’t favor the home team sadly. The Browns can never seem to beat the ex-Browns, at home or away. So is this the week? Should I put “upset special” up there? As much as I want the Browns to win, even with a depleted defense the Ravens are still offensively better than the Browns defense. However, I expect this to be another sickeningly slow, mistake prone close game. Ravens by a nose.

Arizona at Green Bay -11.0
After the Cardinals beat the Giants earlier in the season, and the Packers were losing I might have said that this could be a major upset. Since then, the Packers are back to dominating form and the Cardinals are pretty shitty. Skelton doesn’t have that star power, know what I mean? Packers are down a couple of receivers, but it doesn’t matter. Pack to win.

Chicago at Tennessee +3.5
The Bears had a tough game last week against the Panthers, and frankly, I was a bit surprised. They travel to visit the Titans, who blew it in overtime against the Colts. The Titans defense is terrible, I think losing Finnegan has hurt the secondary. Either way, the Cutler to Marshall connection can’t be beat right now, and Forte is earning his money, unlike Johnson, who will get stuffed by the Bears run defense. Bears to win.

Miami at Indianapolis +2.5
Well, a bit of Luck and the Colts are looking like they could challenge the Texans for the division. Maybe. Probably not. No fucking way. A late win against the Titans does not a division winner make, though Luck is showing great poise in the late stages of the game. Last week I said the Dolphins are playing with passion, and their whipping of the Jets proved that. With Tannehill questionable, and Moore bruised up, I still think the Dolphins win this game, just on defense alone.

Carolina at Washington -3.5
The Panthers are terrible right now. They showed some spark against the Bears, but that’s all it was. It wasn’t electricity. The Redskins have a little bit of that, but I still wonder if RG3 has that lasting power. He makes good, non rookie decisions, but still tends to run a bit too much. This should be interesting, with two running QB’s, but I’m taking the home team.

Detroit at Jacksonville +4.0
I immediately regretted picking the Seahawks to win last week, knowing that the Lions would pull of another last second win. Stafford is getting better at that. The Madden curse is strong for Calvin Johnson, now limping a bit after last week. He’s been a ghost this season, struggling with the double team and getting open. But just throw him the ball! However, this has opened up other lanes for Stafford. Adding Mike Thomas (in a trade with the Jags) this week will give Stafford even more options. Detroit wins this game, cause the Jags really do suck.

Buffalo at Houston -11.0
The Bills are a constant disappointment of bad play calling and timid defense. The Texans are going to kill them. The Bills need to be cleaned out from top to bottom. This organization has been sitting in the corner wearing the dunce cap for far too long. Texans to destroy them.

Tampa Bay at Oakland -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The 3-4 Bucs meet the 3-4 Raiders in a re-match of what I call “The Gruden Bowl.” Good thing he’s not calling this shit bag of a game. The Bucs are hot one minute, not the next. This week they were hot against the Vikings on the road, the receivers standing up and making Freeman look real good. The Raiders looked good (by comparison) against the Chiefs, but still turned over the ball too much. That’s the key here, turnovers, and the Bucs get ‘em. Bucs to win on the road.

Minnesota at Seattle -5.0
Tough call here. Can I call a friend? Actual stat from NFL.com: “Christian Ponder has never played a game in the Pacific Time Zone in either college or the NFL.” This stat was tweeted by @scotthanson at the exact moment I was writing this paragraph. No bullshit. So what does that stat mean? It means he’s due. Maybe. The Hawks are playing tough, and Pete Carroll has shown he’s not afraid to take risks. It wasn’t enough against the Lions last week, but I think that Russel Wilson is better than Ponder, as far as poise and decision making. This game could be tough, they both play in loud stadiums, but this is a loud outdoor stadium. I’m taking the Hawks at home.

Pittsburgh at NY Giants -3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
This is one of my favorite match-ups of the year. These two teams are tough on defense and unforgiving. The Steelers have a running game problem, but their back-up Dwyer ran strong last week, and like Bradshaw can hit holes hard and low. That sounded dirty. The key is going to be the Steelers defensive secondary. Can they stop Manning and his receivers? Probably not, but the Giants will have trouble with Big Ben as he thrives under pressure where Eli doesn’t. Pressure Eli, win the game. Also, get turnovers. I’m taking the Steelers to upset.

Dallas at Atlanta -4.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
Game of the week for two reasons. The first being that the Falcons are currently 7-0 and could go 8-0, the second being that the Cowboys are going to get exposed. Sure, they came back against the Giants last week, but six fucking turnovers by the Cowboys, four by Romo, should have led to an ass whupping, yet the Boys hung in there. Why? Cause the Giants let them. They toyed with them, gave Eli the ball and won the game. The Cowboys can’t do that. Matt Ryan can. Atlanta wins this game, because the Cowboys will not have fixed their turnover or Romo problem.

Philadelphia at New Orleans -3.0
Hey, how about that – Vick had no turnovers last week and still played like shit. The whole team did. The defense was terrible. Good thing they fired their coordinator. The Saints have no direction with no coach. Someone needs to step up and be a leader. Home in the dome, the Eagles in town and threatening any hope of a winning season, it’s now or never Saints. Do it. Saints to win.

Bye week at N.Y. Jets
Consistently proving they have no idea what they are doing. The NY Jets.

Bye week at St. Louis
For once, giving up is an option in the NFC West.

Bye week at San Francisco
Watch out Niners, the Hawks are looking tough.

Bye week at New England
Tom Brady has majestic hair.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 5

Thursday, October 4th, 2012

cardinals

Whew. With the regular refs back I was able to find some solace in the consistency of the games this past weekend, going a pleasurable 10-5. I knew I shouldn’t have picked the Bucs to win a goddamn thing, and the Falcons cut it close, but all in all a good week to be picking games. The best was Monday night, when the Bears totally destroyed the Cowboys and then some. That was fantastic.

So there’s not too much to talk about this week. I’m going to keep it short and sweet, since the Presidential Debates are on soon (I write this column on Wednesday nights if you haven’t figured that out yet after all these years). I can’t tell who won from the debates, since I haven’t watched the debates yet even though you are reading this after the debates. We still have to vote though, not like it matters. The whole douchebag vs. a turd argument. It doesn’t matter. They are both dirty politicians out to protect the corporations and their financial interests, rather than the good of the people. On with the picks!

Arizona at St. Louis +1.0
I’ve seen better Thursday night games. A year ago this would be a hotly contested battle between two teams that weren’t going to win shit. This year, the Cardinals are undefeated and the Rams are coming off an upset win over the Hawks. The Cards have a tough road ahead of them, but the Rams shouldn’t pose much of a challenge. Their defense stepped up last week, but with only a few days rest and facing a very potent set of receivers, I’m sticking with the Cards in this one.

Miami at Cincinnati -3.5
The Dolphins are hilariously bad this season. Yet they hung in with the Cardinals last week… no fucking way. The Bengals are going to destroy the Dolphins on both sides of the ball. If you have a fantasy league in which you play defensive players, pick up every Bengals LB, CB and so on. Bengals to win.

Green Bay at Indianapolis +7.0
The Colts needed a week off to relax, work on some patterns and prepare for the Packers, a team looking to reassert themselves. The Colts could steal this game, because the Packers running game is still trying to find its legs. Regardless, the Colts defense is nothing to be proud of at this point, and allows a shit ton of rushing yards. Packers to win.

Baltimore at Kansas City +7.0
The Chiefs didn’t fare so well last week, biting it hard to the Chargers. This week, another road team rolls into KC looking for a pushover team. The Ravens have holes, the Browns exploited them for most of the game. Press coverage and flushing out the QB. Can KC pull that off? This is a game where I’d love to call a home team upset, but I just can’t. The Ravens defense is too good.

Cleveland at NY Giants -13.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!
I guess if there is any solace for the winless Browns, it’s that the Saints are also win-less. Though after this week, I’m thinking only the Browns will be win-less. Giants to win.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh -2.5 GAME OF THE WEEK!
Always a fun game, this in-state rivalry is never without a little violence. The Steelers defense has one mission and one mission only – destroy Michael Vick. I’m pissed that the Eagles beat the Giants, that was bullshit. Vick isn’t any good, he just gets lucky. Harrison, smash! Steelers to win.

Atlanta at Washington +3.0
The Redskins played a close game against the Bucs, who had the win in hand then fucked it up. They are looking moderately okay, as long as the offense stays healthy. They still don’t have much of a running game. The Falcons, well, they are going to be near unstoppable this year. I smell an upset though, but I have to stick with the Falcons to win.

Seattle at Carolina -2.0
I guess I better start picking some home teams to win. Statistics demand it. The Panthers came on strong against the Falcons, but Cam Newton and his dumb fucking touchdown dance pissed off the football gods and they were handed a last second defeat, after a Cam Newton fumble. That’s right Superman. How’s that stupid fucking dance working out for you now? Regardless, the Panthers are offensively playing stronger than the Seahawks are playing defensively. Panthers to win.

Chicago at Jacksonville +6.0
No upset brewing here. Cutler and crew calmly destroyed the Cowboys on Monday night, handling Romo with ease, with five interceptions, two returned for TD’s. This veteran defense is playing amazing. The Jags have no chance. No chance. Bears to win.

Tennessee at Minnesota -5.5
At this point, after beating two good teams in a row (respectively good that is) the Vikings cannot be ignored. Their defense is playing amazing, at both the run defense and the secondary. Special teams play has also been great, with the runners finding the gaps and exploiting weak special teams defenses. The Titans have a weak everything. Vikings to win.

Denver at New England -6.5
Manning looked like his old self against the Raiders, but the Raiders defense blows chunks. I still think that Manning hasn’t clicked with his offensive line, and going into a hostile environment against a team that has a deadly offense will be trouble for Manning. He’ll be playing from behind, communication will be a problem. The key for Denver is taking the crowd out of it as quickly as possible, which means scoring first. This game could really go either way, if it was being played in Denver. Patriots to win at home.

Buffalo at San Francisco -8.0
For two quarters it looked like the Bills were going to pull off the upset last week, then they didn’t. They got beat and beat hard. Alex Smith makes better decisions though, so shouldn’t make as many mistakes. The Niners are up and down this year, and having trouble establishing any kind of solid rhythm. Last week, with the pistol offense, that was pure genius. A rout of the Jets was just what this team needed to get back on track. A rout of the Bills will help as well. Niners to win.

San Diego at New Orleans -3.5
The Chargers came alive last week while the Saints took another knife to the chest. But is any of this for real? A Saints fan pointed out the Saints could still finish 12-4, but with no competent coaching and a defense that appears to be asleep at the wheel, is that possible? As for the Chargers, they tend to appear in a win, better than they are. The Saints are going to wake up this week and win. That’s not a guarantee, but close to it.

Houston at NY Jets +9.0
The Jets have become my no-pick team this year. TEBOW! TEBOW! Houston to win.

Tampa Bay at Bye Week
Hmm… didn’t pick any upsets this week. In that case, the Bucs have a bad bye week.

Oakland at Bye Week
The Raiders, no high draft picks until like 2014… how’s that Carson Palmer trade working out for ya?

Dallas at Bye Week
When are they going to stop thinking Romo is any better than one of those tennis ball machines?

Detroit at Bye Week
Good. Megatron needs to rest up. All that running and no catching a tired receiver makes.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 10

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Can the magic Ginger & AJ Green beat the Steelers?

Let’s not bust any time this week. I have a busy schedule. Last week I added some gut picking to the picks. I’m dumping that. It was nice, but I actually ended up exactly the same, 8-6, as my thoughtful picks. I’m a little pissed off at my season total, 84-46 (65%) but it appears the goofballs at CBS Sports (where I frequently get my NFL news, I don’t know why) aren’t doing much better. So that’s nice. I feel a little bit better. I also feel okay because the games were so damn close last week, at least, the ones that I lost.

In other NFL news, the bye weeks are over. So that means two things. One, I’m back to picking sixteen full games. And two, it means that the Thursday night games start. I don’t like the Thursday night games because that means that’s one less game on NFLRedZone on Sunday. And I’m not staying up Thursday night to midnight to watch the game. Especially since I just got Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 and if I’m going to stay up, it’s going to be cause I’m getting my ass kicked by ten year olds online.

In other non NFL news, a happy belated birthday to my one female reader, Jennifer H. She just turned 30 or something. I don’t know. Either way, she’s older than her husband. Not a cougar, just a cradle robber. I mean, not now, but when they started dating. I think he was like 12 and she was 15 or something. Does that mean he’s got game or she doesn’t? I don’t know. Either way, happy birthday and feel free to name your pending baby after me or any NFL quarterback besides John Beck.

Featured Game

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
There are a lot of huge games this week, divisional match-ups and non divisional playoff type games. It was hard to choose which game to put up here in the top spot, but considering the Bengals position, it had to be them. They are the surprise lead in the AFC North, but have not played either the Ravens or the Steelers. This week, they welcome Pittsburgh to Ohio to finally take on the Steelers, which will be the real test of their mettle. The Steelers lost a squeaker to the Ravens (of which time management was again the enemy) after beating the Patriots. So what to think about them? We know they have a great defense, but the Bengals defense is also top three. Most of the experts are picking the Bengals to finally prove themselves, but they forget about that rookie QB at the helm. Yes, Dalton has played well so far, but he has not met a defense as good as his or as tough as the Steelers. It will be a bit of a shock. Dalton, I’d like you to meet James Harrison and the rest of the Steelers front D-line. Good luck. Steelers to win on the road and reset balance to the AFC North.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Oakland at San Diego Line: -7.0
Carson Palmer showed he’s still got the moves, throwing for over 300 yards and 3TD’s in his second start in Oakland. Don’t mind the 3 interceptions though. Or the fact that Oakland got beat hard by the Broncos defense. Who saw that coming? This week, they are hoping to get back to form against a struggling and confused Chargers team. Is this team from San Diego any good? Or is Rivers clearly still struggling under coach Norv Turner and his terrible time management and decision making skills? Rivers also threw 3 interceptions last week, 2 of them for touchdowns. Otherwise, he had a good game against a Green Bay defense that doesn’t seem to give a shit. I don’t expect him to pick apart the Oakland defense, as they generally play QB’s like Rivers a bit closer to the belt than guys like Tebow. Close game, but I’m taking the home team. Chargers to win.

New Orleans at Atlanta Line: -1.0
The killer divisional match-ups start right here in the dome in Atlanta. I’m going to say right now I’m leaning towards the Falcons. At home, Matt Ryan looks like a freaking god. They picked apart the Colts last week and only a pick six kept it from being a total shut-out. The Saints smacked around the lethargic Bucs, but clearly looking ahead to this game. The key of course is going to be whether or not Atlanta can shut down Darren Sproles amazing skills past the line of scrimmage. I’m going to say the holes in the Saints secondary will be enough for the Falcons to come out ahead. Falcons to win by a nose.

St. Louis at Cleveland Line: -3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
While there are tons of great games, there are also a few games like this. Will the Rams be able to compete after several weeks on the road and getting beat in overtime by a terrible Arizona team? Will the Browns, who have shown nothing on offense and whose defense is slowly getting worse be able to secure a much needed home win so their fans don’t finally desert them? It’s hard to say. What is easy to say is that both these teams are performing no where near their potentials and are right where they deserve to be. The Browns would benefit from only giving the ball to Josh Cribbs, since he’s the only competent offensive player on the team right now. Browns to barely win at home.

Buffalo at Dallas Line: -5.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
On paper this is a so-so game, but in reality this game could be a make it or break it game for both teams. Last week the Bills were smacked down to reality by a Jets defense that didn’t allow Fred Jackson to run hog wild the whole game. While the Cowboys defense won’t offer as much resistance, the Bills defense will have to worry about stopping the run of explosive rookie back DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys have some ground to cover if they want to climb up and compete with the Giants who are secretly running away with the division. With half the season behind them, now is the time. However, the Bills are not just going to lay down now. Last weeks loss should have woken them up, rather than set them down. They have to contend with the Patriots. Plus, after settling an old score with the Redskins, the Bills have the same score to settle with the team that beat them in two Superbowls. Bills to win on the road.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis Line: +3.0
Last year, this would have been an easy choice. You would have said, “Peyton, no question. Colts to win.” This week the Colts are coming off a serious drubbing at home by the Falcons, and have yet to pull a win this season. There is no way the team is intentionally losing, but they certainly look like they aren’t trying very hard. Have they given up already? If the opposing defense promises to only two hand touch Peyton can he come in and play? Poor Curtis Painter, he’ll never get another starting gig in the NFL unless he can make something happen this season, which means, get a fucking win. Could this be the week? The hot and cold Jaguars come to town after a bye week and previously beating the Ravens in a strange turn of defensive prowess. If they even have a little bit of that defense, the Colts shouldn’t be an issue. But I don’t think they Colts have a 0-16 season in them, not in the defense and not in the spirit of the team. This is win number one, if only their only win this season. Colts at home.

Denver at Kansas City Line: -3.5
Did you start Tim Tebow in fantasy football last week? Sure he only had a little over a hundred yards passing, but he had over a hundred rushing and two touchdowns. Finally the Denver coaching staff realized they can’t put a young and maturing Tebow in a traditional spread offense. Instead, they adapted to the college style read option which Tebow owned while he was at Florida. In this, and strong defense by the Broncos, he is now 2-1 as a starter. Say what you want about the guy, but he is more of a winner than a loser. So suffice it to say, the Chiefs will have watched some tape this week, if they have gotten over their sorry loss to the Dolphins. The Chiefs, after winning four in a row, quickly reverted back to how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Did they get too cocky? Ahead of themselves? The Broncos, mathematically, can still win this division. No matter how plucky the KC defense is, I think that the read option beats them. Denver Tebows to win. Yeah, I’m picking it. And starting him in fantasy.

Washington at Miami Line: -4.0
I think someone on the Miami staff reads this column. They must. The week I declare that I will no longer pick them to win, they roll into Kansas City and deliver a royal smack down. They looked like a playoff caliber team. Moore threw well, Bush looked like a rookie again and they dominated on defense. Where has this team been all season? I’d like to think I was the one who motivated them to this point. That’s probably not true, but whatever. Based soley on the performance of the Dolphins last week and the fact that the Redskins have about as much offense with John Beck as a high school flag football team, Dolphins to rack up their second win.

Arizona at Philadelphia Line: -0.0
You can stare at that line all you want, it’s not going to change. This is a zero line game and for good reason, both these teams have an overpriced quarterback who isn’t worth his salt. To add fuel to the fire, last week with Kolb out, Skelton came in and won the game. Ok, to be fair to the defense, Skelton didn’t do shit. A huge blocked field goal and an overtime pick-6 secured the win. That’s what did it. Kolb might miss another start against the team that might be wishing they’d have kept him on. Instead, they get to watch Vick throw interception after interception and get hit on almost every play. It’s hard to protect your QB if he’s no longer standing anywhere near you. Regardless, the Cardinals offense is almost nonexistent. Barely beating the Rams, who have been the recipients of blowouts this year, doesn’t bode well for them against a stronger defensive team like the Eagles. I hate to do it, but Eagles to win.

Houston at Tampa Bay Line: +3.0
The Texans are flexing their AFC South dominant muscles now. They’ve all but secured what turned out to be a pretty shitty division this year. Rolling into Tampa with probably the best running game tandem in Tate and Foster is pretty much an automatic win right? Right? Right. The Tampa Bay Sucs (can we go back to that now) have been my most inconsistently picked team this year. I think that’s cause I inexplicably went against the grain and actually decided they might be good this year even though I hate them. Fuck that logic. I’m right back to hating them, as only once have I picked them correctly, and that was last week against the Saints. No more of that noise. Plus, the Texans are too damn good right now and the Sucs Barber can’t be everywhere on the field, committing penalties. Texans to win on the road.

Tennessee at Carolina Line: -3.5
You know, any recent season, with the Panthers terrible run defense and the presence of Chris Johnson, one might be easily swayed to pick the Titans to win this game. This year? With the Panthers crappy run defense and Chris Johnson unable to rack up fifty yards a game, one might be tempted to pick the Panthers to win. Especially with the electric Cam Newton at QB. But, as Michael Vick is proving, being electric doesn’t mean shit if you don’t win games, and the Panthers do not have a winning record. Instead, they come off a bye and welcome the struggling Titans to town who looked mediocre at best last week against the Bengals and lost. This week, they’ll look mediocre at best against the Panthers, and lose. Panthers at home.

Baltimore at Seattle Line: +7.0
After a rough game against the Steelers, as everyone knew it was going to be, the Ravens get to travel all the way to the west coast to take on the Seahawks. Who put that shit in that order on the schedule? Either way, the Ravens, while at time sluggish on offense, are always strong on defense. The veteran defensive players probably travel better than Joe Flacco and his on again off again offense. Plus, the Seahawks have no offense. I mean, technically they have one that is on the field, but they suck at it. The question is, will they finish low enough to draft a QB first round? Ravens to win on the road.

Detroit at Chicago Line: -3.0
This is a tough one in Chicago. The Bears just made the Eagles look like a practice squad last week, while the Lions were taking a nap after a few strange losses (and an ass whipping of Denver.) So this divisional match-up actually means something this year. It won’t matter in the long run though, as the Packers will continue to roll. Well, strike that. My guess is that the wild card in the NFC is coming from this division (since it certainly is not coming from the West) so this game is important. It’s tough to choose though. Both teams are playing smash mouth defensive football, but the Lions have looked better in their wins, while the Bears have looked worse in their losses. I’m going to shake the bones here and see where they land. Ah, the bones have spoken. High scoring game, Bears to prevail at home by a late field goal. Especially if there is outdoor weather involved.

New York at San Francisco Line: -3.0
This game just got bigger than you would have thought. Did you think at the beginning of the season you’d be looking at a 7-1 San Francisco 49′ers? Did you? Did you? No, you didn’t. You thought they were just going to be another cog in the crap fuming machine of the NFC West. Now, with seven wins they have all but locked up the division. Think about it. Last year, the Seahawks won the division at 7-9. The Niners can coast the rest of the season, but they won’t. But that certainly will change the way they play. Crabtree is finally playing to his potential, the defense is lights out, especially against the run and that Alex Smith kid got the chance and the right coach to become a quality QB. So the Giants, and their newly crowned “elite” quarterback roll into town after upsetting the Patriots. This is going to be a huge game for both teams, but the Giants need the win more. But needing doesn’t get you getting and I’m taking the Niners to satisfy the home crowd and come out of this East coast vs. West coast battle a surprising, but now expected, 8-1. Niners at home.

New England at NY Jets Line: -1.0
Oh Tom Brady, what happened buddy? You lost two in a row, and one at home. Ouch. That’s gotta sting something fierce. I bet you used extra conditioner that night. That being said, every single “expert” that I read today are sticking with the Patriots, running with the stat that Brady has never lost three in a row. News flash asshats, Brady isn’t the only guy on that team. And his interceptions aside, the defense is doing two things; jack and shit. They aren’t closing down the run, they aren’t winning the turnover battle and the secondary seems confused. Back to Brady, he’s got no deep threat. While Welker does his due, he’s not a downfield receiver. That’s killing the offense. The Jets, while a bit slow developing an offensive attack have been outstanding on defense. Revis is going to be defensive player of the year the way he’s going. The Jets are fired up and hot after their strong win over Buffalo. Can the Pats rebound on the road? Can the Jets get another huge divisional win? These questions and more will be answered Sunday… SUNDAY SUNDAY. Hell, Jets to win. Out.

Minnesota at Green Bay Line: -14.0
While the other NFC North game was hard to pick, this one is easy. Like Brett Favre before him, Aaron Rodgers has the same strange disease that only afflicts him on Monday Night. It’s like this, on Monday Night, he’s unstoppable. The Packers are unstoppable this year. Even after a nail biter against the Chargers, the Packers played it cool and kept the game further out of reach than the score would indicate. Christian Ponder is getting his third start, second against the Packers. He’ll do okay. Pat the kid on the head. There is no way he’s winning this game though. Not in Green Bay. Not this year. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 9

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011

Will the Bucs be celebrating against the Saints again?


So, I picked the Denver Tebows to beat the Lions. In my heart of hearts I knew it was wrong, I was wrong and I paid the price by losing a correct pick. It was a chance I was willing to take, just in case. The truth is, as bad as Tebow was, the rest of the team was just as shitty. So he doesn’t know how to throw away the ball and has terrible mechanics, okay. He’s got a spark, but that’s not enough. I’m still on the Tebow train, but the offensive line has got to get it together to give him an extra second. The Lions said they were coming for him, and they did. Of course, it was a good week to have the Lions defense in fantasy football, as I do. Heh.

Overall I went a dismal 8-5. When the blond chicks at work who pick at random get 10 right, you know you are doing something wrong. It’s like when you take a girl bowling and she does that under the legs thing and gets strikes, and here you are shooting from the right side with a spin on the ball and you come up short. Kind of proves chaos theory eh? I’m 76-40 on the season (66%) so that’s not too bad. I really want to stay at or above that percentage, so the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Which means second guessing my gut. Not smart, but gotta do what I gotta do.

I’m going to do something a little different this week. I’m going to immediately pick a winner, then do my analysis than either change the impromptu pick or stick with it. Either way, it should be clear at the end of each paragraph which team I’m going with. I just want to see how accurate my gut (first pick) is compared to my pick after analysis and second guessing. And instead of doing them one by one, I’m going to do all my gut picks at once, down the line. And… go!

Featured Game:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans Line: -7.5
Gut Pick: Tampa Bay The Bucs have not done me well this season, and now they come off a bye and travel to New Orleans to fight for the division. The Bucs got a little help last week as the Saints rolled over for the Rams, which tells me that they were over confident coming into the game, and looking past the game to this one. While I doubt the Saints will play as badly as they played against the Rams, I expect them to over compensate a little bit with some over aggressive play calling, which is sometimes the norm for them, but doesn’t always work against the Bucs. This should be a strong game on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to come down to trick goal line plays and special teams handling. I’d like to see the Bucs go after the Saints on punts and extra points. I think that’s where the difference in this game are going to be. So that being said, I’m taking the Saints to win. Look, I know they are both good teams in the NFC but the Saints at home have a clear advantage and splitting the series this year sounds like a good compromise. Saints at home.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

NY Jets at Buffalo Line: -1.5
Gut Pick: Buffalo The Jets talk a big game, but have yet to really show themselves. Their defense, and specifically Darell Revis have bailed them out when they needed them the most. Their win against San Diego was impressive, but came too late in the game. Especially if they want to contain the Bills, who have established quite a running game with Freddy Jackson. Not to mention the play of the defense, shutting down passing routes and pressuring QB’s left and right. I’m sticking with my gut on this one though, as the Bills are playing better all around football. Bills at home.

Seattle at Dallas Line: -12.5
Gut Pick: Dallas This season has not been easy for the Cowboys. Last week they were terrible. Their defense couldn’t keep up with the well prepared Eagles offense. They made McCoy look like a fucking god as he shredded their run defense and Romo couldn’t keep his feet under him. This team is less than inconsistent, they are bad. The Seahawks meanwhile seem to be coming around a little bit, now that they have Jackson back at QB but losing like they did to the Bungles hasn’t helped their game any. The defense is a strong point, but they don’t have the offensive weapons to get it done. I’d love to pick them to upset, but Cowboys to win at home.

Atlanta at Indianapolis Line: +8.0
Gut Pick: Atlanta Without a win and looking quite pathetic, the Colts are nothing without Peyton. Plenty of teams have injuries, and still play strong. What happened to the dubious Colts defensive front? What happened to the running game? What happened to this team besides the loss of Peyton? If he doesn’t get some MVP votes, then something is wrong in the universe. They need to win eventually right? I don’t think it’s going to be against the Falcons though. Matt Ryan likes playing in a dome, no matter where it is, Detroit or wherever. The Falcons run game is going to be too much for the Colts by themselves. And the rush will have Painter running for his life almost every snap. Falcons on the road.

Miami at Kansas City Line: -5.0
Gut Pick: Kansas City For the second week in a row the Dolphins held a lead, then gave it up like a discount hooker in an airport bathroom. While I said I won’t pick them to win at all this season (playing the odds) I do think they, unlike the Colts, are actually trying to win. There has got to be a breaking point though. It’s not only the offense having no longevity (all you need is an hour) but it’s bad coaching decisions too. The Chiefs on the other hand, looked to be having a bad season, then suddenly waking up and realizing that they are in a so-so division and have a serious chance at it. This is a win they really need if they want to stay in the race. Which is why it’s ripe for an upset. I’m not picking it though. KC at home.

San Francisco at Washington Line: +4.5
Gut Pick: San Francisco Wake up! You are not in an alternate reality! The Niners are 6-1. They haven’t been this good since Steve Young left. Not only that, but they will most likely win the division with a winning record. Quick, off the top of your head, when was the last time that happened in the NFC West? I don’t know, but it’s something to celebrate. Harbaugh is finally the coach that the Niners were looking for and they’ve turned Alex Smith into a franchise QB and somehow sparked Crabtree to start playing to his potential. The offense is clicking and I don’t see them slowing down, even on a long trip to the East coast to face the Redskins. The Redskins are a dismal 3-4, but so is everyone in the NFC East save for the Giants. However, after last weeks shut-out I don’t see them bouncing back against another strong team. Niners to win on the road.

Cleveland at Houston Line: -10.5
Gut Pick: Cleveland Of course my gut says the Browns. In my mind, they never lose. And this is a way I can pick them without actually picking them. The Browns entered the season with high expectations then the Madden curse took a hold of Peyton Hillis, the backup RB hasn’t done shit and Colt McCoy isn’t looking quite like Elway as he did last year. The bright spot is the defense, which is doing it’s job keeping games close, but that’s not enough if the offense isn’t doing shit. Heden is a beast out there in the secondary, but he can’t win games by himself. The Texans are much too good for that. They whipped up on the Titans last week and should be running away with the NFC South any day now. The Browns are just something they stepped in on the way. Texans to win.

Cincinnati at Tennessee Line: -3.0
Gut Pick: Cincinnati Shhh… don’t tell anyone. The Bengals are 5-2 and have the leagues #2 ranked defense. Last week special teams added to the fantastic ride of the Bengals season with two punts returned for TD’s. Dalton has looked like a 5 year veteran, making very few rookie mistakes. Still though, the Bengals still have to beat the Ravens and Steelers who they have to play twice yet this season. That could change everything. They need to rack up as many wins as possible before that point. The Titans, sigh, after getting a huge contract Chris Johnson has been shit, and the injury of Kenny Britt hurt this team even more. However, they aren’t out of it yet, and even after the drubbing at the hands of their division rival Texans, the Titans still have a shot, putting down the Colts last week. Johnson still didn’t get his run game going, as bad as the Colts are, so the problem is him. I’m still hoping each week that he’ll wake up, as long as I’m not playing against him in fantasy football. I’m sticking with my gut here, which I think is going to be a high scoring back and forth affair, with Cincy prevailing due to defensive play. Bengals on the road.

Denver at Oakland Line: -7.0
Gut Pick: Oakland You don’t need much of a gut to predict this after seeing how Tebow performed last week. I think I said what needed to be said in the opening paragraph. He’s getting ripped in the media but that loss was because of a complete failure as a team by the Denver Broncos. This week they roll to division rival Oakland who will be giving Palmer another go. Now, I’ve always liked Palmer, as much as I hate the Bengals. I’ve always thought he was a good QB with an accurate arm and good pocket presence, and he is. But the guy stepped away from the game, and I think that hurt him when it comes to developing a cadence with a new team. It’s been two weeks though, thanks to the bye and I think with that and working non-stop with receivers and this being a home game (cutting out travel time) Palmer will be much better this week. I’d like to see Tebow put up a fight though. Oakland to win at home.

New York at New England Line: -8.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Gut Pick: New England Was it a mistake to pick the Patriots to beat the Steelers last week? Maybe. I don’t think so, but everyone else seemed to pick the Steelers to win. Was there something I was missing? Either way, the Patriots offense was shut down for the most part, and they looked human. Now they are back at home, where Brady has lost what – once? Some crazy stat like that. Picking against them almost feels like playing the lottery. You smirk, but know that the odds are completely astronomical. While the Patriots are my gut pick here, I really want to pick the Giants to upset. The Giants seem to either sink down, or rise up to the level of their opponent and their defense has been pressuring QB’s all season and pretty boy Brady was certainly affected by the Steelers pass rush last week. This would be a tough, and huge win for the Giants if they pull it off. Brady was 6-1 against the Steelers and that stat got busted. I’m picking the Giants to upset and bust another stat.

St. Louis at Arizona Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK
Gut Pick: St. Louis What do I need to say here that you don’t already know? The Rams finally got their first win, inexplicably upsetting the Saints with killer defense. If they play even marginally like that, the Cardinals will have a tough time keeping up. While neither of these teams are going to win the NFC West, they may as well battle it out for the bottom rung. Kolb has been a complete bust in Arizona, the guy is not a starting QB. Of course, he suffers from lack of protection, so it might not be all him. They did well against the Ravens, pulling at 24-6 lead at halftime but blew it. Coffee is only for closers! Rams to win on the road.

Green Bay at San Diego Line: +6.0
Gut Pick: Green Bay The opening line for this game was 5.5 in favor of the Chargers. I laughed, checked again and saw that it had quickly flipped. Turnovers, bad defense, Rivers fumbling the ball away at a crucial point in the game and throwing two interceptions contributed to their loss against the Chiefs on Monday night. What a debacle. The Chargers played about the same against the Jets, they let the other team beat them on defense, so what chance do they have against the Packers? The Packers are playing all around great football, they make the right decisions and adjustments. Do I expect the Chargers to put up a bit of a fight? Sure. Do I expect them to win? Hell no. Packers to win on the road.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Line: -3.0
Gut Pick: Pittsburgh One of the best night games is the Ravens and Steelers. This week, they are at the Steelers, where the Patriots were sent home with their tails between their legs last week. As the season goes on, the Steelers get tougher and tougher. The Ravens staged an epic comeback against the Cardinals, but that was the Cardinals. Of course most teams don’t play the same week to week, but the Steelers are one team that is only getting better as the season progresses. The thing about them is, you can sack Ben like 60 times a game and he’ll just shake it off and keep throwing. Really, so will Flacco. He’s got the moves. The fight for the AFC North starts here (but watch the rear view for the Bengals.) Steelers to win at home.

Chicago at Philadelphia Line: -7.0
Gut Pick: Chicago The only reason the Bears are winning is because of the superior play of Matt Forte. The problem is that the Bears haven’t given Forte a new contract and they are running him ragged in the meantime. This wouldn’t be a problem if they gave him what he’s worth. Because it’s already in his head, which means at any time it could affect his game. Of course, it’s a catch-22 as if his play declines, his chances for a huge contract do too. So he’ll play hard. Philly’s LeSean McCoy had a huge running day against the Cowboys, but the Bears actually have a better run defense, when they are on. When they aren’t, they aren’t. It’s no secret I can’t stand Philly this year and want them to fail, but I don’t think I can justifiably pick them to lose at home this week after seeing what they did to the Cowboys last week. Philly to win at home.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Carolina
Hey, not a bad first half of the season for Cam Newton. Can you tell this guy is a rookie? Cause I sure can’t. That being said, he can’t do it alone, which their latest loss kind of proves.

Bye Week at Detroit
Relax. Suh is meeting with the league to go over the rules, because he doens’t want to break them. The Lions D is playing dirty lately, and they need to knock that off before it ruins their perception. Not to mention getting the attention of the officials in-game.

Bye Week at Jacksonville
The Jags are about as fun to watch as a turtle getting run over by a cloud. BORING. Is Jack Del rio still the coach? Who cares?

Bye Week at Minnesota
The Vikings have to be feeling pretty good going into this bye week. Unlike the Broncos, the rest of the team has risen up to help transition Ponder to the big leagues, and he’s fared well. While we won’t see the Vikes in the playoffs, we may see them with a winning season after all.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 8

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

Can Brady do it again vs. the Steelers?

Week 8 is when the depression of losing sets in. I went a dismal 7-6 last week, and I want to cut out my eyes and dip them in acid. I wouldn’t bet on my picks if you forced me. Yet, I’m still hanging at 66% on the year (68-35) so that’s not too bad. So last week had some challenging games, a lot of upsets and some surprise wins. The biggest of course being the Denver Tebows over Miami. All the pundits are of course blaming the Denver win on Miami’s failure to play competent football, and claiming Tebow was terrible for 55 minutes and good for 5.

Honestly, the whole team was terrible for 55 minutes. Then they came together in the last 5. Tebow was steady, but damn, how can they expect the guy to pass the ball when the pocket collapses as soon as he takes a step back? If they can’t protect against Miami, how are they going to fare against the Lions this week? Of course he was sacked and rushed. He still escaped often and made the big plays when it mattered, so all you Tebow haters can suck it. The kid is the real deal and just needs some help from his team.

In other NFL news, even Browns fans turned off the game last week due to abject boredom. Here’s to a more exciting week of football. On with the picks!

Featured Game:

New England at Pittsburgh Line: +1.5
This is always a good one, for the Patriots. The Pats got a break last week and come off the bye to face their toughest opponent before facing the Bills again. The Steelers just tossed around the Cardinals after teasing them a bit. But here’s the thing, no matter how good these two teams are, on defense (Steelers) and offense (Pats) and how many Superbowls they’ve won over the past years, Tom Brady simply owns the Steelers. Brady is 6-1 against Pittsburgh, only losing back in 2004. In the six wins, Brady has 14 touchdowns and one interception. His last four games against the Steelers have included a 70.9 completion percentage, nine touchdowns, one pick, and a yards-per-attempt average of 8.79. You can’t argue with the statistics. So how can you even think about taking the Steelers after how they’ve really not dominated this year at all? You have to stick with the Pats. However, this is going to be a fun game to watch and if you have any Pittsburgh players on your fantasy team, play them. The Patriots are likely to give up a ton of points, but not more than it takes for them to win. Patriots on the road.

Tailgate City (the Rest:)

Indianapolis at Tennessee Line: -9.0
Last week the Titans rolled over and got their fudge packed in by the Texans. Hasselbeck was terrible, Chris Johnson was nonexistent and the rest of the team just kind of stood there as the Texans whipped up on them. Do I think they re-surge this week and get a huge home win to keep in the running for the division or will the Colts buck up and win a fucking game? The Colts didn’t fare much better (worse actually) against the Saints, but at least it looked like they were trying. I’d like to nominate Peyton Manning for the MVP. No one man has meant more to a team than him. The Colts, Dolphins and Rams will be drafting QB’s 1-2-3 next year, the first time that has happened since 1999. Unless one of them actually gets their shit together. It won’t be the Colts this week. They just don’t have enough to win. Titans at home. Not with the points though. I don’t think they are that good right now. Though if Chris Johnson can’t get it done against the Colts terrible rushing defense, then I’m writing him off for the rest of the season.

New Orleans at St. Louis Line: +13.0
If you thought that the Saints vs. Colts game was a mismatch, wait until the Saints travel to St. Louis this weekend and whip up on the Rams. New Orleans stopped passing after the half last week, yet still ran up the score. They couldn’t help it. Expect more of the same this week, but the Rams could put up a bit of a fight. Not on run defense of course, since they have one of the worst in the league. New receiver Brandon Lloyd might get going this game, but the Rams will need a whole lot more than one receiver to get this offense going. Saints on the road.

Miami at NY Giants Line: -10.0
Hey, Miami signed J.P. Losman. Won’t help. The Dolphins are horrid. Was it play calling that lost the game for them against the Broncos? Was it the magic of Tim Tebow? Or was it just really, really bad offense and QB play? It was all those things and more. The Dolphins are in the “suck for Luck” mode for sure, so I’m not picking them the rest of the season. I’m gunning for them to go 0-16. Not only that, but Sprano still inexplicably has a job, yet the Fins are already making phone calls. This does not bode well. The Giants, coming off a bye are looking like they could make the NFC East even tougher than it is. Expect them to rack up crazy stats against the Dolphins, or get upset. Either way, I’m not picking the Fins. Giants to win.

Minnesota at Carolina Line: -4.0
A nice quality win for the Panthers last week. Newton looked solid, going 18 for 23 for 256 yards and two TD’s – one rushing. He’s got seven of those this season. Nice on the defensive side too, as they racked up the sacks and a key interception (aren’t they all?) On the other side, Ponder looked good against the Packers last week, but c’mon, that was the Packers. He wasn’t going to win. This should be an interesting game between two decisively different rookie QB’s. I don’t think the Vikings have the contain down on the QB, give Newton time and he’s gonna go all A-Team on the secondary, especially with Steve Smith still out there catching passes. Rush him, and he’ll scramble, but I don’t see the Vikings successfully breaking through that often. Panthers to win at home.

Arizona at Baltimore Line: -13.0
Did anyone think the Cardinals would beat the Steelers? This team hasn’t played good football since Warner left. They gave Kolb that huge contract, but took his supporting players away from him. With a receiver core that isn’t as good as it used to be, and a running back that can’t get his legs under him, the Cardinals offense is simply terrible. There is hope for this team though, they are in the NFC West. The Ravens played a defensive struggle against the Jaguars, both teams played very well on that end. They did allow over 100 rushing yards to MJd though. But the Cardinals don’t have that kind of defense, the Ravens should be back to form this week, you know, scoring points on both offense and defense. Ravens to win.

Jacksonville at Houston Line: -9.5
Wait, did the Jags actually beat the Ravens? They did! They did it with astoundingly stout defense and a massive running game from Maurice Jones-Drew. Good for them, because they have looked pathetic all season. The Ravens are notorious for their run defense, yet gave up all those yards. But hell, they are seriously outmatched against the division leading Texans. Arian Foster is having a good season now that he’s back from injury. He’s going to test the Jax front line for sure. The Houston Texans have too many weapons for the Jags to stop, but then, that’s what I said about the Ravens. I think the Texans are a much more complete team though, and can stop the run a bit better and not get bogged down on offense. Texans at home.

Washington at Buffalo Line: -4.0
The Bills are comfortably coming off a bye heading into this game in Toronto. They have had a nice season so far, scoring a shit ton of points and highlighting the awesome running of undrafted back Fred Jackson. This counts as a home game for them, as like the Buffalo Sabres, they may as well reside in Toronto because they have a huge fan base there. Meanwhile, the Redskins defense, usually stingy, gave up a bunch of yards to the rush last week, so I don’t think they’ll shore that up in a week. John Beck, Rex Grossman – it doesn’t matter. The Redskins are inconsistent at best. Like it matters, I was gonna pick the Bills anyway. Bills to win at home.

Detroit at Denver Line: +3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Here’s the deal with the Lions, all the goodwill they have been building by winning, they lose when players like Suh get all dirty and shit. And I’m not talking about a lack of personal hygiene. I’m talking about blatant facemasking, yanking a QB’s head around like it’s a maypole. I’m talking about players rolling up on a QB’s ankle and other thuggery. The refs took notice, nailing the Lions for a ton of penalties, ultimately costing them the game. Was it worth it? The refs might be cracking down, but Suh should have been thrown out of the fucking game for that bullshit. His arm was wide out, full grab for the face. Thrown out and suspended for 3 games. I see it too much at the Pee-Wee level, kids playing just as violent. I’ve seen little thugs stomp on players while they are down, clothesline and more. At the 8-9 year old level. While their idiot parents cheer them on and the refs do nothing for fear of reprisal. What the fuck is wrong with this picture? Anyway, the Denver Tebows mounted a furious comeback against Miami, so no matter how terrible they played up to that point, they won the fucking game so all you Tebow haters can suck it. Denver is still terrible on both sides of the ball, and I know the Lions have more offensive power than the Broncos D can handle, but just for the hell of it, fuck it if I’m wrong but I’ll look awesome if I’m right – the Lions continue their skid and the Broncos and Tim Tebow win. Denver at home.

Cleveland at San Francisco Line: -9.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
You mean after that three point drubbing that the Browns gave the Seahawks last week in what was probably the most boring game of the season, the Browns aren’t less than a 10 point underdog? Weak. That’s just weak. Every one keeps saying that perhaps the Browns are better than they are, perhaps they are but outside of defense, the Browns haven’t showed anything recently that would give me the impression that they are nothing but a cobbled together team of young players that could do well in the future. Last week the defense was fantastic, but it was the offense that couldn’t get anything started. This week they travel to the West coast to fight the Niners, who are coming off a bye after a win over the Lions in rough fashion. The Browns, while I’d love to pick them since they are my boys, are not going to win this game because of the offensive problems. There could be an upset here, but I don’t think so. I hope so, but don’t think so. Niners to win at home.

Cincinnati at Seattle Line: +2.5
So the Seahawks got shut down on all offensive fronts by the Browns, and lost. Their defense played well I suppose, blocking a few field goals, but I think it was the lack of a Browns offense that kept the scoring low. Real low. Finally they go home after a couple weeks on the road, and they welcome another AFC North opponent to their house. Can Whitehurst and the boys rebound and beat the Bengals? Also coming off a bye, this team is the most surprising 4-2 team. Andy Dalton is coming around quite nicely as a starting QB, his mistakes are starting to disappear. The only issues remain at running back, as Benson has been sidelined for a bit. I’m looking for the Bengals to add to their win total here on the road, which should make their next game against the Steelers that much more interesting. Bengals to win.

Dallas at Philadelphia Line: -3.0
The Eagles needed a bye week to settle down. Are they settled? Well, a strong divisional game will show us if they are. What needs to be settled? Well, Vick needs to show that he’s worth that big contract and actually stick in the pocket and throw a pass, while the lack of a secondary needs to be addressed. The run defense isn’t spectacular either. Which should be interesting against rookie DeMarco Murray, who broke Emmitt Smith’s rushing record for a single game in a Cowboys uniform. The Cowboys are gearing up. They got a slow start and are going to be scary to face very shortly in the future, that is, they are going to be an offensive powerhouse – if Tony Romo can get his head out of his ass. Either way, I’m going against the grain here and going with the Cowboys to win because I really don’t like the Eagles, I said they weren’t going to be as good as people say they are and I like to be right. Cowboys. Offense. Win.

San Diego at Kansas City Line: +3.5
Finally. Finally the Chiefs looked like they do on paper. Finally the offense blew up. Finally the running game got going. Finally the passing game, the defense and Matt Cassel woke the fuck up. They trashed the Raiders, ran Boller out of the game and looked damn good. Can they do it again, at home against a Chargers team that has it’s number one weapon in Antonio Gates back on the field? Can they prove that they are not to be counted out just yet and the start of the year was just a fluke? Or was last week a fluke? This is going to be a huge game for both of these teams. I’m taking Rivers and the coaching staff to once again find a way to blow it (bad time management did it against the Jets) and I’m giving the nod to the Chiefs on this one. Any given Sunday right?

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Atlanta
Huge win for the Falcons over the Lions last week, but it was still a sloppy game for them. They really need to take the week off and decide if they want to protect Matt Ryan for just a second longer in the pocket.

Bye Week at Chicago
Hi. We’re the Bears. Sometimes we can’t protect our QB. Sometimes our running game is second to none. Sometimes our defense actually shows up. Of course, it helps if we travel to London to do all those things. Maybe we’ll be consistent going forward.

Bye Week at Green Bay
The Packers go into their bye needing to… do nothing. Maybe tighen up on defense a little bit, but hell, this team is going 16-0. Superbowl. Back to back. Put the whole team on the cover of Madden 13. It’s the only way they’ll lose.

Bye Week at N.Y. Jets
The Jets defense saved their asses against the Chargers, a week after saving their asses against the Dolphins. The offense has really got to wake up, figure out who is going to run the ball. Thankfully, Sanchez finally met that Plaxico Buress guy.

Bye Week at Oakland
Boller got the start over Palmer, throws two picks (his first two passes.) Then Palmer comes in, throws three more. Weak sauce. Don’t expect this team to get any better without a consistent QB. It’ll be Palmer, and it better be quick or he’s back to retired.

Bye Week at Tampa Bay
I cannot get this team right. I pick them to lose, they win. I pick them to win, they lose. It’s like they read this column and say “you’ve hated on us for so many years, we’re just going to prove you wrong every week.” Fine. Then I’m back to hating. I rescind my pick for the Bucs for the playoffs. Fuck off and finish last in the division. A-holes.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 7

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

Can Matt Ryan lead his offense against the Lions to victory?

Another week passes by in this glorious NFL season, and another sub-par selection of winners. I went 8-5 last week, no thanks to the Bills choking. All you had to do was run the fucking ball to kill some clock, then kick the game winning field goal. But no, you are going to pass to the exact same receiver on the same pattern that your last interception came on. That was idiotic. Didn’t Fitzpatrick go to Harvard? Meanwhile, the Bucs are proving me wrong every week, which if you’ve read this column for more than a year is an annual occurrence. I don’t know what it is, I cannot pick that team correctly. Maybe it’s cause I hate them so very very much. Then, the Lions lost in a game full of mistakes on both sides. So those are three picks right there that I really wish would have gone my way. Well, if wishes were turds, I’d have to flush. So that brings me to 61-29 (68%) on the season. In the big picture, that ain’t bad. Here’s what the ESPN guys are doing:

Allen 59 31 66%
Golic 66 24 73%
Hoge 64 26 71%
Jaws 61 23 73%
Mortensen 54 36 60%
Schefter 61 29 68%
Schlereth 63 27 70%
Wichersham 62 28 69%
Accuscore 64 26 71%

Really that math should be recalculated, as some of them haven’t picked all the games. There have been 90 games, yet Jaws has only picked 84. I just want to beat Accuscore by the end of the year. The worst picks by any so-called expert have to belong to this guy. 

It should also be noted, scoring was way down last week, I think that the defensive secondaries of most teams are finally starting to wake the fuck up. A lot less blown coverages and big defensive plays are showing that the lockout hangover might have finally worn off. Now, on with the picks!

Featured Game

Atlanta at Detroit Line: -4.5
Well, I was wrong about the Lions. I said they’d be undefeated come Thanksgiving, but a lack of run defense and some serious red-zone penalties kept them behind San Francisco last week. Even though the Niners gave them plenty of chances to bounce back. The Lions could be in trouble this week (and my fantasy team) as Javid Best might be sidelined after suffering a concussion last week. They shipped in Ronnie Brown from Philly, but he’s yet to pass the physical. So there goes the running game. But Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the tight ends can carry the offense, but not without the play action. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Thankfully, they are at home where the noise is sure to fluster Matt Ryan, who likes to call plays at the line. Might want to start practicing those hand signals now Matt. If the Lions give up the kind of yards on the ground they gave up to the Niners, they will lose this game. I’m torn, but I’m sticking with the Lions just cause I have more fantasy players on that team.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Seattle at Cleveland Line: -3.0
The Browns. What can be said about my team? Well, Colt looked alright against the Raiders, but it wasn’t until the last five minutes. Whatever they did on their bye week didn’t seem to have worn off. Hillis was a non-factor, leaving with a hamstring injury. Madden Curse anyone? The Browns were pathetic. The Seahawks are just coming off a bye week and have to roll to the east coast again. Though last time, they managed to win the game late with some smart defense. I’ll buy that. Charlie Whitehurst looks to be getting the start over Tavaris Jackson, which could actually be a good thing for the Seahawks, looking to find that magic they lost when Hasselbeck left. I’m going to go against my gut on this one though, and take the Browns to win at home. I’ll probably be wrong (as I usually am when I follow my gut) but I gotta pick my boys every once in while right?

Houston at Tennessee Line: -3.0
The Texans could not get the running game going against the Ravens last week, and that killed them. The Titans aren’t going to make it easy for the Texans this week, as this game may as well be a playoff for the division. Both have massive losses at wide receiver, both teams haven’t been able to really establish a running game. Both teams have defenses that can be up at times, down at others. This is a very evenly matched game. Houston’s defense might be a bit stronger, but they have to find a way to control the bevy of tight ends that the Titans employ. Are they blocking or running slants? No one knows! Titans to win at home.

Denver at Miami Line: -3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
How’s this for lame. Before the game, Miami plans on honoring the 2008 Florida Gator National Championship Team – including visiting QB Tim Tebow. Talk about degrading. Not only will this fire up Tebow and the Denver Broncos with false bravado, but it will totally demoralize the Dolphins. Why in the hell are they still going through with this idiotic presentation? The original idea was to sell tickets, but now? It’s just moronic. “We can’t get out of our own way,” said Sparano. Of course, he was referring to the play of his team, rather than the poor decisions by the marketing department. It should also be noted, that after losing to Denver (as Miami will) Sparano is probably going to be out of a job. If he isn’t, I’ll be surprised. That being said, the Miami Dolphins have nothing to give any pundit a reason to pick them. Denver on the road.

Chicago at Tampa Bay Line: +1.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Apologies to both the Bears and the Bucs. The London game is always an automatic crap fest. One team is always tired and plays like shit, it always rains and the crowd is confused and the stadium is never full. These games are a bit depressing to watch sometimes. Either way, it doesn’t matter what happened last week, the Bucs will win this game because they flew over to London on Monday, giving the guys time to adjust and get a proper amount of sleep. Meanwhile, the Bears opted to practice at home this week, then fly over on Saturday. Bone-head move guys. The Bucs already learned that lesson once, and that’s torture on the body with the time change. Fatigue is going to be the enemy of the Bears, which is why the Bucs will win.

Washington at Carolina Line: -3.0
The Redskins found some mystical way to lose against the Eagles, even though their defense smacked around Vick. The problem was pretty clear, as Rex Grossman tossed four picks to the Eagles defense. He was benched, and now John Beck is going to be the starter. That’s good news, because the kid can run. Sure, he’ll make mistakes but like Tebow he’s got a weak defense his first week out. Meanwhile, Cam and the boys almost pulled one out of their asses last week against the Falcons, but three interceptions killed them. Not to mention allowing a comeback. I expect this game to go about the same, though I can see an upset brewing. Though since the Panthers are favored on the line, it wouldn’t be an upset. Anyway, like an awkward virgin on prom night, the Panthers can’t seem to seal the deal. Redskins on the road.

Kansas City at Oakland Line: -3.5
Raiders Offensive coordinator Al Saunders said about Carson Palmer starting; “As long as he’s breathing.” Sorry Boller, you are nothing but pine warmer. Palmer was acquired by Oakland from the Bungles for a draft pick or something. Either way, it’s a good deal for the Raiders, but don’t you think Palmer will be a bit rusty coming back from semi-retirement? Especially with only four days to learn the plays in Oakland? Thankfully, he’s up against the Chiefs. Now, the Chiefs aren’t terrible, but they sure have not been playing lights out defense. What’s that? They are terrible? Oh, yeah, so they are. The Raiders, coming off a win over the hapless Browns are fired up, looking at a serious run for the playoffs. Kansas City will be a minor speed bump. Raiders to win at home.

Pittsburgh at Arizona Line: +4.0
A lot of so-called experts are picking the Cardinals to somehow snap out of their mediocrity and beat the Steelers. While the Steelers defense and run game took a little while to get going, it’s going. The Cardinals defense is also not going to have an answer for the deep threat of Ben to Wallace. Not to mention that Hines Ward guy still plays football – apparently. Either way, Kolb isn’t nearly as sharp as he appeared to be as backup in Philly. The Cardinals are probably looking to enter the Andrew Luck lottery as well. A loss here will help. Steelers to win on the road in this rematch of that one Superbowl where Arizona lost.

St. Louis at Dallas Line: -10.5
I really wanted to make this one my upset special this week, but I just picked up the Dallas defense in fantasy since the Bills have a bye week and I don’t like to bet against myself. The Rams, well, they showed up against Green Bay in the second half on defense, a little bit. They held the Packers after the half, but also didn’t score. They seem to be lagging on that scoring bit a lot lately. Sigh. They just suck. 400 yards of offense and only three points to show for it. The Cowboys, a team that I picked to win their division, still haven’t stepped up to be the team that they are on paper. I think they lay down a whipping this week, but they really have to get their shit together if they hope to compete with the Redskins. Cowboys at home.

Green Bay at Minnesota Line: +9.5
Remember that time that Donovan McNabb turned out to be a bust? Oh wait, that was last week. For all concerned, the Donovan McNabb era in purple should be over. Christian Ponder, the rookie Qb with the quick feet, has been named the starter after relieving McNabb against the Bears last week. While he didn’t score, he moved the team down the field, which was more than McNabb did. The Vikings are hurting on offense, Peterson is their only weapon but even he is stifled by an offensive line that can’t get out of it’s own way and certainly can’t create any pocket protection. Thankfully Ponder knows how to run, and he’ll have to be running against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. There is no upset brewing here, the Vikings are going to get whipped, but it’ll be fun to watch Ponder escape pressure. Packers to win.

Indianapolis at New Orleans Line: -14.0
The Saints are coming off a 2-1 road trip, tired and hungry. Hey, what’s this? A five course meal being delivered right to their door? I’d like my rookie quarterback rare please. Indy, also in the Andrew Luck lottery, clearly has no faith in their young rookie Painter. Or at least the media doesn’t, as Painter has already been replaced by Andrew Luck on paper. So, their season is bonked. Still looking for their first win, they ain’t gonna find it in New Orleans. Saints to win.

Baltimore at Jacksonville Line: +8.5
Last but not least, the Jaguars. Another rookie QB is about to get squashed like a bug. If Gabbart thought the Steelers were tough, wait until he meets Ray Lewis and friends. The Jags have shown some spark lately, but they really are lacking when it comes to pass protection, passing and pass defense. So, there’s that. It should be a nice, rough game with plenty of silly penalties for the Jags. Ravens to win on the road.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Buffalo
So was that bad play calling or a terrible decision by Fitzpatrick that lost the game for the Bills against the Giants? Either way, the Bills better take a step back and deflate those heads. After the Patriots win, the Bills are looking a bit normal.

Bye Week at Cincinnati
The Bungles have been the surprise team of the season, led by young ginger Andy Dalton. They enter the bye week at 4-2 and poised to make a run at the division title. Of course, they have to find a way to beat their division foes first.

Bye Week at N.Y. Giants
The Giants defense seemed to wake up late in the game against Buffalo, a week after the offense lost the game the same way Buffalo did. The defense needs to keep it strong if the Giants can hope to hold off the rest of the division and overtake the Redskins.

Bye Week at Philadelphia
The Eagles, are for real? I still don’t think so and won’t be sold. While they won last week, Vick still made a laundry list of mistakes, but coupled them with some good play too. We’ll see if that huge contract pays off. Oh yeah, Vince Young is really that bad.

Bye Week at San Francisco
Huge win for the Niners over the Lions. I didn’t think I’d ever be saying that. But Harbaugh is doing a good job leading this team and turning Alex Smith into a real NFL QB. Now, if he can only get that offensive line to sharpen up a bit.

Bye Week at New England
What needs to be said about the Patriots? They pulled off a Tom Brady-esque comeback against the Cowboys and sustained their home win streak. Brady and Bellichick also tied Shula & Marino for most wins by a coach/QB duo. Slap on the back chaps.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 2

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Can Collins lead the Colts to another ten win season?

So I started the season off a paltry 8-8. That’s pretty lame, but better than most experts. That’s not an excuse, I plan to do better. Being right is very important to me. I’m shooting for at least 65% in correct picks this year, not including the playoffs. We’ll see. In other news, all three of my fantasy teams lost, thanks to lousy QB and Defense choices. What the hell? Remember, all predictions right or they aren’t. Nothing on the island is real.

Featured Game

Cleveland at Indianapolis Line: +3.0
This game is my featured game not because I’m a total Cleveland Browns honk, but because of the Colts. The Colts have made the playoffs with 10 or more wins since 2002. It’s a streak that no team has matched. It’s a streak that will become Peyton’s legacy. It’s a streak that is in jeopardy. I know that I could be way off on this, but Doug Flutie isn’t waiting in the wings to save this team. Kerry Collins sure as shit ain’t gonna do it, not after the drubbing he took against the Texans last week. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Colts start Painter. The home fans are not going to like a fumbling Kerry Collins, I think they’ll be a bit more lenient with a rookie QB. Though it’s too bad that the Colts don’t really have much of a running game right now, because that’s where the Browns are showing they are lacking. The Browns let the Bungles get the best of them with two late game big plays as their front line seemed to tire. Losing to the hapless Bungles was not a good start for the Browns, but I think they can bounce back on the road this week assuming their defense steps the hell up. I can see either team winning this game, but I’m going to give it to Cleveland edging the Colts late.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Oakland at Buffalo Line: -4.0
How about those Bills eh? Who the hell saw that coming? I attribute their win to the switch back to the classic red white and blue uniforms. That has to be it right, because KC was supposed to be this crazy offensive powerhouse? Right? Well, they were offensive all right and the Bills took full advantage, doing it on offense and defense. They actually looked good. This week, they welcome the Raiders to town, who squeaked by the Broncos in their home opener. A week earlier I might have picked the Raiders to win this game, but man, the Bills looked pretty damn good. Let’s see if they can do it at home. Bills with the points.

Kansas City at Detroit Line: -8.0
As mentioned above, the Chiefs had a complete breakdown on both sides of the ball. It was a terrible week for me to start both Matt Cassel and the Chiefs defense in Fantasy football. Really, who the hell saw that coming? They sucked. Now, it’s quite possible there was some rust to shake off as they got over the offseason troubles and it might take them a couple games to get back to form. I think they’ll do better against the Lions on the road, but it won’t be enough. The Lions dominated the Bucs last week, and even though the final score was close – the game wasn’t. The Bucs aren’t a bad team, they are a sleeper playoff pick for sure. The Lions offensive attack was too much for the Bucs secondary, and their defense was solid. Not a crazy good performance by the defense, but good enough to win. The keys to beating the Chiefs will be protecting Stafford and keeping the Chiefs run game contained. That being said, they’ll do that. Lions at home to win.

Baltimore at Tennessee Line: +4.0
Sometimes I watch games and totally regret picking a team, or thinking about picking a team at all. The Titans were that team. Are you kidding me? Hasselbeck was totally inconsistent and the Titans defense wasn’t even playing the same game as the Jags offense. They made the Jags look damn good, and gave Jones-Drew plenty of room to trash their defensive line. I don’t expect them to be able to hold off the Ravens, who smacked around the Raiders defense last week. There is no way the Titans will win this game, but hell – any given Sunday and what not. But I’m not picking against them. They are too strong. Ravens to win on the road, with the points.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota Line: -3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I can understand how some people are favoring the Vikings in this game, they do have Adrian Peterson and the special teams play of Percy Harvin, but the Buccaneers are actually a good defensive team this year and slipped up a bit against the Lions. The key to this game is going to be special teams. The Bucs have never been strong on either side of the special teams coin, so the Vikings will have to take advantage with the runbacks, if there are any in the dome. Other than that, slam with the run and don’t put McNabb into too many pressure situations. However, the Vikings will still have to keep up with the young Bucs offense. I’m giving this one to the Bucs on the road, to upset the Vikings.

Chicago at New Orleans Line: -7.0
The Saints got whupped by Green Bay in the season opener. Yes, the game appeared close at the end, but I think that Sean Peyton has to realize that everyone is familiar with his bag of tricks now. He’s not tricky anymore. Brees is still a great QB, and their running game is amazing, but good defenses can see through that and around it and what not. And the Bears have a good defense. I’m not saying that the Bears are going to beat the Saints on defense alone, but this should be a good game to watch because it is the Saints offense vs. the Bears Defense. It’ll be interesting to see if the Saints can beat the spread, but I am taking them to rack up the most points and win.

Jacksonville at NY Jets Line: -10.0
So the Jets eke out a win against the Cowboys and are suddenly ten point favorites against the Jags? Give me a break. The Jets are a good team, but they have a lot of problems. Sanchez still doesn’t look confident in the pocket and it took the defense at least three and a half quarters to get moving and make some game changing, er, saving plays against the Cowboys. Whatever. I’m still not sold on this Jets team, so you won’t hear me chanting. However, I’m not sold on the Jags either, so I can see how the Jets are so well favored at home. I don’t really like saying this, but the Jets are going to win this game because, well, Luke McCown has yet to see what a real defense looks like.

Seattle at Pittsburgh Line: -12.5
Last year the Steelers defense was full of veteran players. This year, the Steelers defense is full of veteran players. What’s the difference? Well, it’s the difference between a grandparent and a great-grandparent. Their veteran status showed, in what will probably be their toughest loss this year. That won’t be the norm for this team, a team that adapts very well to changing situations, like prohibition. Either way, the weakest link against the Ravens last week was the offense. Seven turnovers. That’s just all kinds of pathetic. So this week they are at home and they get Tavaris “I still have a job” Jackson and the Seahawks. The NFC West sucks balls. Steelers to win easy.

Arizona at Washington Line: -4.0
This is probably one of the better matchups this week. You might not think so on paper, but the explosive play of Beanie Wells in the Arizona running game paired with their high falutin’ wide receivers and this could be a very high scoring game. On the other side, the Redskins got lucky last week against the Giants. I don’t think they beat them because they are a good team, I think it was because the Giants played like shit. The Redskins will compete this year, but they will struggle with it all season long. This week however, I think they pull off a win. The NFC West sucks balls.

Green Bay at Carolina Line: +10.0
Cam Newton had a record breaking rookie debut, and lost. Run that by me again. Cam Newton, throws for over 400 yards and two TD’s and lost? Oh yeah, that’s cause he plays for the Carolina Panthers. They have no running game, they have a defense made up of sticks and leftovers. They have Cam Newton. Whoopdie freaking doo. This line should be +30 for Carolina because Green Bay is going to use this team for target practice. And Newton was up against the Cardinals defense last week, which is like one of those cute little smart cars, where the Packers defense is like one of those two story bulldozers. Cam, meet Clay Matthews. Packers with the points.

Dallas at San Francisco Line: +3.0
Did the Niners open the season with a win? They sure did. Did the Cowboys blow a 14 point lead and suck big hairy nuts? They sure did. It appears to me that Romo spends the fourth quarter on the fucking golf course and not in the goddamn game. This pisses me off because I hate the Cowboys, so I want to see them get beat, but not throw the game away because they can’t hold on to the damn ball or punt properly at home with the giant TV screen. So now they travel to San Fran to meet the Niners, who I’d say are red hot but they are still the Niners and have tons of problems that are yet to be determined if they are fixed. But shit, they are in the NFC West, which sucks balls, but I’m taking the Niners to upset the Cowboys and upset Jerry Jones.

Cincinnati at Denver Line: -5.5
Oh man the Broncos were terrible Monday night. So this should be the perfect home opener. They welcome the Bungles to town, who with two monster plays against the tired Browns defense notched their first win of the season. It should be a rare win though, I don’t see the Bungles ratcheting up the wins with Andy Dalton, er, Bruce Gradkowski at the helm. Neither guy gives them a chance to win at this point. Carson Palmer would, but he’s still retired. Until the Colts find a way to hire him. Anyway, I’m getting tired so I’m taking Denver to win at home, but it’s going to come off a late field goal or something like that.

Houston at Miami Line: +3.0
Houston will win this game. Here’s why, their defense is good. Did you watch the Colts game? Yes, Collins made mistakes but that’s because the defense got to him and applied the pressure. Remember, that offensive line of the Colts is good, they protect Manning. So I credit that to the pass rush of the Texans. Miami won’t be able to fare much better against that pass rush, Henne is going to be running around like a headless chicken. Houston is going to make a strong push for the playoffs this year, and with Manning out of the way already, all they have to do is win. Defense wins games. Houston on the road.

San Diego at New England Line: -6.5
Tom Brady threw for what, 2 billion yards against Miami? Now at home against San Diego? I’m thinking he should throw for at least another 2 billion. If you have Brady as your fantasy QB, then you are probably going to win your league this year. I’m just going to say it now, the Patriots are going 16-0, or at least 15-1. This team is going to be close to unbeatable. Oh wait, I already said that in my AFC predictions. I think I predicted the Bills to be the lone upset. So since the Chargers aren’t the Bills, I’ll just save you all the trouble of having to read some babble about how the Chargers aren’t playing to their potential and never seem to be. Patriots to win at home. With the points.

Philadelphia at Atlanta Line: +1.0
Even though Vick and the Eagles found a way to beat the Rams, it wasn’t with Vicks arm. It was on defense. Vick still is not a good QB, I don’t care what anyone says about the guy. He’s too quick to go for the out, he doesn’t let plays develop and only shines on the deep pass. So what happens when he’s up against the Atlanta defense who likes to dive in with the crazy pass rush? He’s going to run out of the pocket and try to carry the game on his legs. So what happens when the Falcons put a dedicated LB on him and flush him out of the pocket? Is he going to look for his slant receiver or an outlet pass to the running back? Throw the ball away? No, he’s going to do something stupid. I can’t wait for him to be outed as a sub-par QB and everyone gets off the Vick Train. That being said, the Falcons are no slouches. They lost to Chicago, but it was a tough game on both sides, Ryan didn’t seem to be quite in form. So I’m looking for the Falcons to bounce back and take the Eagles at home. Falcons to win.

St. Louis at NY Giants Line: -4.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Notice a trend forming here with the crapfest game? So far, both of them are Monday night match-ups. Take note ESPN, you need to start paying more for games. Look at the Sunday night match-up on NBC, it kicks ass. Because they know how to bargain a fucking contract. ESPN clearly thinks they can show any two teams playing and people will tune in. Both these teams played no where near their on paper potential last week, looking like high school junior varsity squads against two NFC East opponents who may or may not be legit contenders. Bradford and Jackson both appeared to have suffered injuries during the Eagles game, but most likely will be starting. That’s good, because without those two the Rams don’t have a rats chance in hell of competing. The Giants, well, they have a laundry list of problems to work out. Do they have an offensive line? I didn’t see one against Washington. Eli plays much better when protected from the pass rush. Whatever, I’m taking the Giants at home on a gut shot guess.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 15

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Best friends forever? (image: Tony Kurdzuk/The Star-Ledger)

Last week was not as expected. First off, I’ll be the first to admit that I was completely wrong about the Chiefs against the Chargers. It seems that they can’t win without Cassel at the helm and the Chargers completely owned them, handing them a shut-out. Yes, I was wrong. I think this is the most wrong (wrongest perhaps) that I’ve been all year long. All in all, last week was a disappointment at 9-7 (124-85 on the year.) The Jets and the Packers really let me down with those losses, and I was way off on the Bears. Even though I picked the Patriots to win that game, I had no idea it would be a blowout. Anyway, enough dwelling on the past.

This week we already have one team that has clinched so can relax just a little bit (Patriots) but probably shouldn’t. As the Colts have taught us in the last couple years, if you don’t get either a late loss or sit all your starters once you hit the playoffs you lose the first game. Hopefully the Patriots won’t sit everyone and will come out to win and win big. I’m feeling good about this week all around. The Bears get an unexpected second snow game, the season is winding down and the playoff picture should be a bit clearer after this week. Perhaps. So crack open a natty light, step out into the cold in your shorts and a wife beater and have the little woman read you these here picks. Get ‘er done!

Featured Game:

Philadelphia at NY Giants Line: -3.0
This is the big one. As far as the next couple of weeks are concerned – they don’t matter. What matters is this NFC North showdown between the Giants and the Eagles. They meet in the New Meadowlands carrying the same record and the need to win. This Giants defense will be a challenge for Vick though, it’s not the Texans and it’s not the Cowboys. It’s the Giants. While the Giants will have a struggle keeping the ball out of the hands of the Eagles secondary. Eli, even though he threw a couple of picks last week, still managed to pull off the win. For the sake of continuity, with what I’m not sure, I’m going to take the Giants just because they are at home and probably have watched enough tape to be able to contain Vick and DeShaun Jackson’s showboating ass.

Tailgate City: (The Rest):

San Francisco at San Diego Line: -9.0
The Chargers must be reading this column. I’ve been dogging them all year round for just not being good enough, and now here they are – a game behind the Chiefs and poised to take over the division. A win at home against the on-again/off-again (mostly off) Niners could be just what they need to propel them into a tie for the division lead. This is important because the Chiefs play at the Rams this week, which could really go either way. Needless to say, I’m taking the Chargers at home.

Cleveland at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Browns cannot win with Jake Delhomme at the helm. Maybe at some point the guy could play football, hell he took the Panthers to a Superbowl, but now he loses games. The good news is that Colt McCoy practiced this week and should start for the Browns. Good, because I was hoping they hadn’t given up yet. As for the Bungles, well Chad and T.O. on the Ocho show blamed pretty much everyone in the organization for the failure of the team – besides themselves. From ownership to the coaches, T.O. did everything to put himself out of blame. Going on television and blaming the coaches and owners is stupid for a player, and he’ll be out next year. Not saying he was wrong, just didn’t pick the correct forum. Browns to win on the road, the Bungles are a mess.

Washington at Dallas Line: -6.0
The Cowboys nearly pulled off the win against the Eagles last week, which would have been a really good sign for this franchise – this year. Kitna has done a good job filling in for Romo, even though he’s been a little inconsistent. He’s accurate though, and doesn’t put the ball on the ground as much as he did in Detroit. Credit a strong offensive line for that factoid. The Redskins couldn’t manage to beat the Bucs, because they play like shit. Every close game for the Redskins this year has been low scoring and ugly. This won’t be a close game. The Cowboys are going to pistol whip them and refuse to finish last in the division. Cowboys at home.

Houston at Tennessee Line: -1.5
Who knew that at this point in the year the Titans would be doing so terribly? We thought with Vince Young and Chris Johnson and the best defense in the league they were a sure thing for the Superbowl. Not so. The Titans are a constant disappointment, week after week. They had their chance last week against the Colts at home, several chances in fact. How’s that 4th and 1 punt with 4 minutes left looking now? Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Meanwhile the Texans are no better. Again, so much promise with that defense and Matt Schaub, but no – it hasn’t happened for this team. This is another battle for the bottom. That being said, I’m taking the Texans on the road because while they aren’t winning, it’s not for lack of trying.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis Line: -5.0
The battle for the AFC South begins and ends with the Colts. While the Jags currently lead the division, they have not clinched it and three weeks is enough time for the Colts to stage a hell of a comeback. Will they? Well, they have to start doing that this week then. Peyton has looked flustered all year long, and the truth is that teams are not afraid of his chicken dance anymore. In fact, there is probably enough tape on him at this point to be able to pinpoint every flap of the arm. Either the Colts need to start doing things differently, or get used to losing. I’m taking the Jags on the road. They have the spark, and are exciting to watch. They seem like they are having fun while the Colts seem depressed.

Kansas City at St. Louis Line: -0.0
The Rams have a chance to do something they have not done in a long, long time – go to the playoffs. All with rookie Sam Bradford at the helm. They took a thrashing last week at the hands of Drew Brees and the Saints, but I think that was more the Saints then it was lack of quality play by the Rams. Bradford has been deadly accurate and Steven Jackson is having a great season running straight ahead. No major injuries have kept him in the line-up. As for the Chiefs, unless Cassel is back by this week – they have no chance. As of this writing, he’s limited in practice and is day to day. The truth is, you need more than a week to recover from an appendectomy. He won’t be in the line-up on Sunday. I’m taking the Rams at home.

Buffalo at Miami Line: -5.5
While the Patriots have already locked up this division, if every other contending team in the AFC loses all their remaining games and the Dolphins win all of theirs I think they have a chance at the playoffs. I don’t really feel like checking that right now. However, they have at least the hope of a winning season, which is good for this team that has struggled to find their identity. Are they a running team? A passing team? What happened to the Wildcat formation? Ronnie or Ricky the primary? Henne, Thigpen & Pennington have all taken snaps this year. Regardless, even though they somehow managed three wins the Bills are not really any good. They may have found their QB of the future, but of the present he won’t beat the Dolphins in Miami. Dolphins to win at home.

Detroit at Tampa Bay Line: -6.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
This could be an interesting game for a couple reasons. First off, the Lions defense has been playing very tough this year and the team as a whole have come very close to winning some very lopsided match-ups. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense has been spotty at best and they still are yet to beat a team with a winning record. To be fair, they have still beaten more teams than every team in the NFC West. Based on the quality of play from the Lions, I’m thinking they have a quality chance at winning this game. Even though they are on the road, I still think they are going to win. Plus, I refuse to pick the Bucs. Lions on the road.

Arizona at Carolina Line: -3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Cardinals put their steel toe down on the Broncos throat last week, and finished the job. The Broncos are toast thanks to the Cardinals, who haven’t put a hurting on a team like that all year long. The Panthers suck. 1-12. Are you kidding me? Cardinals to win.

New Orleans at Baltimore Line: -1.0
While it appears that the Ravens may have faltered a bit in their game against the Texans, I think it was just the defense toying with them for fun. Like a cat playing with a ball of yarn. The defense on this squad is at this point the best in the league. I mean they have to be right? Whenever they get in a jam, the defense gets them out of it. This week they welcome the Saints to town, who are trying to catch the Falcons for the division. Man, I’ve said that word a lot in this column today. Anywho, they won’t do that because they aren’t going to beat the Ravens. That’s right. I’m picking against probably one of the most magical teams in the league. Frankly, I don’t give a shit who wins, I just want to see Colston vs. Reed. You know that’s going to be an awesome match-up. Anyway, Ravens at home.

Atlanta at Seattle Line: +7.0
Another team that is struggling to find themselves is the Seahawks. They are like a pre-pubescent boy getting hair in strange places and reacting terribly to it. While Marshawn Lynch has found steady employment, it’s questionable if Hasselbeck will have it as a starter next year. Start looking at draft boards for a QB boys. The Falcons roll into town with the best record in the NFC and tasting the playoffs. The ‘Hawks paltry defense doesn’t stand a chance against the best running game in the league. Falcons to win easy on the road.

Denver at Oakland Line: -7.0
The Raiders are not done yet, but there is already talk of a coaching change. More specifically – a firing. If Tom Cable wants to keep his job he needs to win every game this year including this one. Which really shouldn’t be much of a challenge. The Broncos should be winning, they have all the tools to win but don’t seem to be gelling. They won’t at this point. The Raiders should be able to roll easy in this one. Raiders at home.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh Line: -6.0
Ok, I’m going to completely re-form my opinion about the Jets. They stink. There, I said it. Pats fans rejoice, the Jets are now on my shit list. What the hell happened to this team? I thought they had a defense that couldn’t be challenge? Yet a blowout at the hands of the Pats followed by a tough loss to the Dolphins have turned this team into a very questionable franchise. Following those two losses with a visit to Pittsburgh is just terrible news for the Jets. Where are the Bills when you need them? The Steelers are playing it rough this year, taking the hits and handing them out (Harrison.) This week, they’ll be bruising up the Jets mighty good. Taking the Steelers at home, and the Jets – J E T S Jets – to lose big.

Green Bay at New England Line: -0.0
Really? The line on this game is zero? I looked – it’s true. Zero. Dunno how that’s possible if Rodgers is still on the bench. Aaron Rodgers may not play. Really, he shouldn’t play a week after a concussion, nobody should. However, after he left the game last week, the Packers O-line left as well. Back-up QB Flynn had little or no protection and was slaughtered by the Lions defense. Regardless, with or without Rodgers the Patriots offense, Tom Brady and the defense will be too much for the falling Packers. Taking the Patriots to win at home.

Chicago at Minnesota Line: -0.0
The Bears get another snow game this week. After falling hard, hard, to the Patriots at home in the snow the Bears get to travel to Minnesota to play at a college stadium in weather that is being forecast at -19 below with the wind chill. They proved last week they can’t play in bad weather like they used to. The Vikings have called up some dude named Ramsey or something like that, from G-d knows where to take the snaps because Favre is old and Jackson has turf toe after one start. Weak Tavaris. That was your shot and you’ve blown it. I’m taking the Bears on the road, in the snow.

That’s it. Limited close as I have a lot of work to do. Enjoy the rest of the week. Drink some egg nog. Eat some rum balls. Yearrghh football!!

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