Posts About ‘Playoffs’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Championship Round

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Well, I was right on about every game last week – except for Denver. That’s three out of four again. Look, the Broncos should have won that game – just like the Colts should have won the week before. Except the Broncos really fucked up. They had the single worst defensive play of the season when they gave up that TD with 30 seconds to go. Where did you think the pass was going to go? Why was a safety not standing on the goal line? They fucked that up, then in OT Peyton got pushed around and finally made a fatal error. I opined last week about Peyton’s ability to play in cold weather in the playoffs, and while I picked him to win I kind of knew that he wasn’t going to.

Both the Patriots and the Niners dominated, but only the Niners looked like a playoff team. Harbaugh held that read option look until the playoffs and it worked. The Falcons might be prepared for it, but I doubt that they’ll be fully prepared for it. The Packers are struggling lately in the playoffs, and that game made a strong case for the importance of a running game in a pass heavy league. They couldn’t establish a play action. Meanwhile the Patriots just keep scoring, no matter who Brady is throwing to. Doesn’t matter. While Joe Montana might have had Jerry Rice all those years, Brady doesn’t need just one guy, he can make any guy a star.

So this is the second to last column of the year, then a hiatus until the season kicks back up again. So you should be full of sadness. Me, I’m going to go cuddle with my guns before they are taken away. Just kidding. I don’t cuddle.

San Francisco at Atlanta – January 20, 2013, 3:00 PM ET +3.0 49.0 O/U
The first game kicks off in the Georgia Dome, which sucks for the Niners. I think they have that energy at home which really helps the team and Atlanta gets super lucky at home. Like last week, when they nearly gave the game away and just beat the Seahawks. Frankly, I’d love to pick the Falcons to win this game and I think they can, and might. But I have to put more value on Colin Kaepernik than one should put on a human being. The guy is a good pocket passer, has the patience of a veteran and makes RGIII look like a chicken with his head cut off. Whether it’s a designed run or a snap decision, the kid has his head on straight. Now, Harbaugh busted out the read option against the Packers who have no run defense and play a classic smash on the line. The Falcons also play a smash, but in preparing for either the Seahawks or Redskins with that week off, they prepared for a running QB. Their secondary just didn’t prepare for the deep ball. So that’s what it comes down to, if the Falcons can contain Kaepernik, and I don’t think they do. At least not for a whole game. He won’t peel off 181 against them, but he’ll get a couple runs, extending plays. For that, I’m taking the Niners to just edge out the Falcons, though I wouldn’t mind being proven wrong.

Baltimore at New England – January 20, 2013, 6:30 PM ET -8.5 51.0 O/U
In this rematch of last years AFC Championship game, not much has changed. Of course the Patriots are favored, but the Ravens are playing with some sort of fire, and you can credit Ray Lewis for that. The now cyborg ex-con is a locker room preacher and gets a team fired up. Joe Flacco, who played amazing last week to little or no fanfare, is still the key to the offense. The kid has a fantastic arm and uses it. The Patriots secondary will not be able to stop the deep ball, and this game will certainly come down to who can score the most points. The Patriots front seven and the defense will have to be on the ball this week, no flip flopping like they’ve done all season. Belichick always finds a way to win, or at least compete in these types of games. The real key for the Pats though is Welker. If he can continue to David Copperfield opponents, then a win is nearly guaranteed. I’m not too worried about Gronk being out, as Hernandez can carry that load and there will be plenty of tricks up the sleeve of the Hoodie. Patriots to win.

Now, for your entertainment, Bad Lip Reading does the NFL. Hilarious!

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Divisional Weekend

Thursday, January 10th, 2013

So last week I went a respectable three out of four. I really did not expect the Colts to give it away like they did. Their front offensive line pretty much helped make it open season on young Andrew Luck. I really wanted the Colts to win because I like what they’ve been able to do this season and I really don’t like the Ravens. What I didn’t count on was Ray Lewis coming back, and getting like nine tackles. Without Ray Lewis, the Colts may have won that game. When I wrote the column last week, I didn’t know he was going to be back in.

So I’m writing this from a Starbucks in Planet Hollywood in Vegas where I finally have good WiFi. I’m here for CES and probably won’t even get to the convention floor. Meetings, meetings, meetings. I mean, meetings with the Roulette table. Oh yeah baby. So as I’m writing this, the guy next to me is having a sex chat with his girl via Skype. I can tell cause she’s wearing little, they went from verbal to typing and every time I glance over it’s like watching one of those porn videos people talk about. Thankfully, he’s keeping it classy by not unzipping right here.

Anyway, I better get this written up, I have a meeting in a few minutes at some hotel that I’ll probably get lost in. Actually, I want to ditch the meeting cause after researching the company it seems really super mega boring and I don’t want to do super mega boring right now. At least I’m not having ACL, MCL and every other CL surgery like RG3 right now. And at least I’m not fired like a shit ton of coaches, including now Rob Ryan, who will most likely not be working in NY with his brother. And at least I’m not Peyton Manning, who knows damn well he’s going to have to play in the cold against the Patriots next week. It’s inevitable.

Baltimore at Denver -9.5
The Ravens pose an interesting challenge for the Denver offensive line, can they control the speed and toughness of a recharged and pumped up defense? That’s the only key to this game. People are questioning Manning’s resolve, whether or not he can handle the week off and the cold weather, I think that isn’t a problem this week. I think the Broncos get an early lead and pound out the rest of the game, leaving Manning able to avoid the rush and save himself for next week, in the cold again, against the Patriots. The Ravens got lucky last week, with Lewis coming back, I don’t think they have the same energy this week, at least not after the first quarter. Broncos to win.

Green Bay at San Francisco -3.0
The big question for this game is how do the Packers contain Frank Gore? Earlier this year, he ripped off over 100 yards against the Packers, then watched as Adrian Peterson did it to the Packers in the last game of the season. However, the very next week the Packers figured something out as they held Peterson in check and were too much for the Vikings without their star running back. I think we could see them show the same defensive fronts against the Niners this week, the only x-factor being Colin Kaepernik. That kid can run, and unlike RG3, he’s got a much stronger physicality to him. He’s not going to twist an ankle getting tackled, and he’s going to use the read and spread option to confuse the defense because he can actually pass the ball. So the Niners then have to worry about Rodgers just lighting up their secondary in the nice weather in San Fran. Sure, he plays well in the cold, but he plays better when he’s comfortable and his receivers have warm hands. This game really could go either way, but I’m taking the Niners by a nose.

Seattle at Atlanta -1.0
The Seahawks were impressive last week, but it is not going to matter against the stronger offense of the Falcons. The Seahawks defense has been lights out against the run, and their secondary has been more than competent. The thing is, Matt Ryan and his top flight receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White can do things that most teams cannot defend against. Those back shoulder throws, and getting the ball up high enough so that only those tall receivers can get it are just a few. Add to that the constant threat of play action and the arsenal of weapons at his disposal and the Falcons offense will be hard to beat. Of course, we know how the Falcons tend to choke in the post-season, so we’ll see if they do. But for now, I’m sticking with the Falcons to finally get that sweet post-season victory.

Houston at New England -9.5
Clearly you have noticed the trend here, I’m picking all home teams, and I’ve already picked the Patriots in the opening paragraph. So, as well as the Texans have done this season, defensively or otherwise, the Patriots are built for the playoffs and that’s why they are going to win. Patriots to win, with little discussion.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Wild-Card Weekend

Thursday, January 3rd, 2013

The first week of the playoffs is here, which means that the word count of this column shrinks considerably. I’m sure you are wondering how I did on my picks this year, I came in around 66% or better most of the time, only having two losing weeks. I think. Frankly, I didn’t keep very good track this year. It’s been a busy year. A lot of transitions, got laid off, got a new job, still trying to find a place where I can be a creative for a living, a writer, whatever. This cubicle shit is killing me. I’m better than that. Working on it.

So, as for the picks this week. I was wrong about the Bears, they didn’t make the playoffs. The Cowboys choked (as expected) and the Giants were unable to make it in. And then all the coaches started getting fired. The only one who didn’t deserve it was Lovie Smith. The rest were bums guilty of bad decision making and scapegoating. Then there are the Jets, who fired the GM but allowed Rex Ryan to keep his job. Which is a joke. The guy clearly proved this year that he has no fucking clue what he’s doing with the tools provided him.

Here’s some additional predictions for the offseason. Mark Sanchez to the Raiders. Tebow to the Jags. Alex Smith to the Cardinals. Vick to the Jets. I also predict, assuming they get a coach worth his salt, the Browns will be a playoff team next year. Mark the fucking tape.

Cincinnati at Houston -4.5
Coming into the playoffs after a loss, Houston has got to be wondering what went wrong against the Colts, because the Bengals will be watching that tape for sure. The Bengals are coming in off a high, having to win their last couple games to get into the show. So they have a pretty stout opponent in Houston, and with Law Firm most likely out after a leg injury, they will have to rely on the passing game to get things going. Look for AJ Green to have a career day against corners that seemed a bit on the lazy side this week. Of course, this is the playoffs and players tend to step it up. Plus, statistics favor the home team in these situations. This one is tough though, as the Bengals defense is one of the most underrated in the league. I don’t think they stop Foster though, he’s AP lite. Houston to win at home.

Minnesota at Green Bay -9.5
I don’t think the Vikings beat the Packers two weeks in a row. Not at Lambeau field, and not in the playoffs. Adrian Peterson came within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record, yet after the game was humble enough to not acknowledge that fact and concentrate on the win. I think AP shreds Green Bay again, but not enough to win. Ponder needs to step up his game if AP is to be effective again. The play action has to work, the Packers need to be afraid of Ponder’s arm. I think they surprised the Packers last week, I don’t think it happens this week. And with Jordy Nelson back and running the team (you see him pick up the red challenge flag and school the coach) the Packers should move on to the next round. Packers to win.

Indianapolis at Baltimore -6.5
The Colts went from worst in the league last year, to the playoffs this year. That’s a hell of a turnaround, and here’s why. Anticipating the return of Manning, the Colts made sure that the offensive line was beefed up to previous standards. Last year, it didn’t matter cause the QB’s sucked. This year, with Andrew Luck, that beefed up offensive line gave him the chance to succeed, and that he did. Ballard came on strong later in the year, thanks to that offensive line, and TY Hilton is defining himself as an elite receiver. The defense has had their problems, but the run defense is stout, and it’s going to have to be against Rice and the Ravens. But I still don’t think they can fully succeed without Ray Lewis leading the defense. I think the Colts come out firing, build up a lead and force Flacco to throw the ball, which can sometimes be good or bad. First upset of the playoffs right here. Colts to win.

Seattle at Washington +3.0
This was actually the easiest game for me to pick. The Seahawks are defensively, not to be messed with. This game matches up two QB’s with similar styles, and two running backs (Lynch & Morris) with similar styles. It’ll be interesting to see who breaks off more yards. It’ll be Lynch. The Redskins offense, with RG3, relies on the zone-read option, which brings in the safeties and gives RG3 either a passing lane or a running lane. This only works if he’s 100% healthy, and he’s not. If there is no threat of him breaking off a huge run, then the zone-read is useless. The Cowboys defense was no test of this, the Seahawks defense will be. They’ll be running a contain and will be after RG3 like crazy. Seahawks to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 17

Thursday, December 27th, 2012

Well, the final week of the regular season is upon us. That means that most of you are done with your fantasy football season. I have one more game, the second half of the final, which I’ll probably lose as I’m going in down by 51 points. I lost my other final too, so that means second place in two leagues this year. Lame, but the good news is that I get double my money back and had some fun along the way. Next year, I’m winning them all.

In other news, the playoffs are just about set – in the AFC. The NFC is still waiting for the East to get their shit together, and the North to figure out a wild-card, which could come from the East as well. The Giants and Cowboys are at 8-7, Washington is at 9-7 which means it comes down to the final game of the weekend to decide that division and who gets into the playoffs, though that decision could be made before then if the Giants lose to the Eagles and the Bears and Vikings lose, or something like that. Or reverse. Whatever happens, I bet the Giants will find a way to sneak into the playoffs again. We’ll keep it quick this week, so you can go back to finding after Christmas sales and watching porn. Don’t lie. That’s exactly what you’re doing.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta -0.0
Atlanta has already clinched home-field advantage and will be benching starters in the second half. The Bucs have played well this season, to a fault. I’m still taking the Falcons at home. FYI: if they win, I was totally right about their record.

NY Jets at Buffalo -3.0
Who cares? Um… Bills to win.

Baltimore at Cincinnati -3.0
Nothing to play for here as the Ravens have the division and both teams have made the playoffs. I gather this will be a slow game, none of the players looking to get hurt. Sucks for the product sometimes, but I get it. Bengals to win.

Chicago at Detroit +3.0
The Lions, who have had a forgettable season with an undisciplined defensive line, have a chance to play spoiler here. The Bears have not yet made the playoffs, but a win here gets them in unless the Vikings also win, and then I’m not sure what happens. They are 1-1 on the season, though the Vikings have more division wins. So that must be the tiebreaker right? Either way, the Bears have to win, so expect them to come out attacking the Lions secondary, who will almost certainly be sleeping on the job this week. Bears to win.

Jacksonville at Tennessee -4.0
If the Jags fuck up getting Tebow for next season, then they are roasted as a franchise. They will lose whatever fans they have left. TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. Titans to win at home cause that Jake Locker kid is actually not as bad as he looks.

Houston at Indianapolis +7.0
Houston and Indy have both clinched the playoffs, Houston has the division but probably wants this win to lock up home-field advantage. So they’ll be playing to win. Great defensive season for them, hopefully TJ Yates stays on the sidelines in the playoffs. The Colts went from worst to the playoffs in a season, with a little Luck and a tenacious defense. That, and four games against the Titans and Jags. They can rest starters, they can’t change their position. Texans to win.

Carolina at New Orleans -5.5
I’m surprised that Carolina won 6 games. Saints to win at home, by like a billion points just for one last blowout party of the year.

Philadelphia at NY Giants -7.0
The Giants have to win this game if they want to get that longshot chance at the playoffs, and they couldn’t ask for a better divisional match-up this year. Even better for the Giants, there is early word that Vick might start, which is yet another in a long line of dumbass decisions by Andy Reid this season. Why in the fuck would you start Vick? Chances are he’s gone next season, now is the perfect time to keep Foles in and evaluate him against a strong Giants team. Whatever. Eagles are terrible. I was wrong about them though, predicted they would go 8-8. And I was 100% wrong about the Redskins. Who knew?

Cleveland at Pittsburgh -0.0
The Steelers are out of the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Last year they got Tebow’ed, this year they get to finish the season on a low note against the Browns. The Browns have had nothing to play for since like week 4, so they will be going full steam this week just to try to beat the Steelers twice in a season since… probably ever. I’m taking the Browns to win.

Kansas City at Denver -16.0
Ha ha. Denver to win and cruise into the playoffs. Here’s the question though, can Manning win after getting a week off in the playoffs? Hmmm???

Green Bay at Minnesota +3.0
The Vikings absolutely have to win if they want to get into the playoffs. The Packers have sealed up the division and would probably like to ensure they have a 1st round bye. So they’ll be on their game this week, which is bad news for the Vikings secondary. And no weather to fuck with Rodgers passing game? Yeah. Packers to win.

Miami at New England -10.0
Patriots are right where they should be. Coasting into the playoffs and if you think they will be resting starters, you are nuts. Miami to lose. Bad.

Oakland at San Diego -0.0
I wonder if Oakland kept the receipt for Palmer? Chargers to win.

Arizona at San Francisco -16.5 AND St. Louis at Seattle -10.5
May as well run this division all at once. The Rams and Cardinals have had crummy seasons, the highlight for the Rams was beating the Niners in overtime and forcing a stupid tie in their other game. The highlight for the Cardinals was… was… nothing. The Seahawks have been on fire, but that running up the score shit and passing late will come back to haunt them in the playoffs. They need a win this week to get the division, if the Niners lose. I think. I have no idea what the tie breaker is here either. So confusing. Someone read the rules. Either way, Niners and Seahawks to win, to make it super confusing.

Dallas at Washington -3.0
And the big meaningful game for the NFC East. Know what? The Cowboys aren’t going to win this game. The Redskins are playing too good, rushing too good and RGIII has been a quality rookie surprise. I’m taking the Redskins to win, but to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 15

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

Not to brag too much, but I picked two big upsets last week, the Chargers over the Steelers and the Redskins over the Ravens. Now, I don’t think I can do it again this week because I also missed some picks last week that made sense to me, liking picking the Eagles and Jets to lose. Those wins made sure that the coaches and quarterbacks in question have jobs next year, securing their place in mediocrity for at least another year. So enjoy that Eagles and Jets fans!

Week 15 means fantasy playoffs are in full swing, which means that if you are basing start/sit decisions on this column, you are out of your fucking mind. Though, some of these match-ups bode well for some fantasy players. I’ve got to decide if I want to play Matt Ryan or Andy Dalton, one at home against a strong defense, and one on the road against a shitty defense. Flip a coin. I think on the fantasy team that has AJ Green, I play Dalton, the one that has Gonzalez, I play Ryan. Yes, I have two fantasy teams in the playoffs. Go me.

With only three games left in the season, there is still a lot of clinching to be done. Last week sucked for a lot of teams, such as the Ravens, who needed to win to either clinch divisions or playoffs. The losses opened the door for other teams, though I’m really disappointed by the Bengals loss as they are the team I picked to make a strong run to the playoffs. Many teams are not mathematically out, though this week should tie up all those loose playoff ends. So let’s see who the winners and losers are going to be…

Cincinnati at Philadelphia +4.0
In a year where everyone is talking about rookie QB’s RGIII, Wilson, Tannehill and Luck, no one has mentioned Foles at all – until now. The rookie QB has replaced Vick for the rest of the season, and already has two wins. He’s not a master at the game, and runs really slow, but he may just be what this struggling franchise and Andy Reid need. A win this week would be huge. However, after a shitty loss to the Cowboys, the Bengals need to win. The Eagles could play spoiler, but I don’t think they do. Bengals to win.

New York at Atlanta -1.0
This game is huge – for me. And for the Giants who need to win to keep the Redskins and Cowboys at bay. A win here and both those other teams losing clinches and sends the Giants back to the playoffs. A loss here and both those teams have a chance to steal the division. Getting wild. Meanwhile, Atlanta got the fuck off Carolina’s field last week, after getting trounced. Since they have clinched division and playoffs, have they gotten complacent? The defense seemed to be coasting last week, they’ll need to be on their best behavior this week. This game could be tight, but for the sake of the dome and the fact Eli can’t run like Newton, I’m taking the Falcons. If they don’t win, then they really can’t close out the big games.

Green Bay at Chicago +3.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!
The NFC North is probably the best battleground in football when these two teams are playing at a high level. Rodgers is the definition of an elite QB, and he had some big shoes to fill. Chicago needs this win to continue to fight for the division, at only one game behind. There was a point where it looked like Chicago would be dominating this division for the entire year, but at some point they faltered. Directly related to Cutler going out of the game last week. Cutler should be back this week, so this should be a great snow battle. I’m taking the Packers to win, just cause.

Washington at Cleveland -0.0
Interesting zero line on this game after the Redskins upset the Ravens in overtime. Could this have anything to do with yet another rookie, Cousins, getting to start due to RGIII’s minor knee injury? Possibly. Also, if RGIII was your fantasy QB, Cousins might be an okay pick, if the Cleveland defense is sleeping. But three straight wins and a crappy AFC have actually kept the Browns mathematically in the playoff race. Seriously. If the Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, Chargers and Bills continue to lose and the Browns win out, then it’s possible. The Browns defense has been playing solid football, and the offense is starting to show some serious life. I’m gunning for the Browns at home this week, so I’m picking them.

Minnesota at St. Louis -2.5
Also still in the hunt are the Vikings, who visit a Rams team still stoked over a late win against the Bills, after an OT win against the Niners. The Rams receiving core have been awesome, so it’s up to the corners of the Vikings to shut them out. It really doesn’t matter though. Hand Peterson the ball 25-35 times, win the game. Done. But wait, the Rams held Frank Gore to 58 yards, can they contain Peterson? I smell upset, so I’m picking it. Rams to upset. Oh wait, the Rams are favored. So, Rams to win.

Jacksonville at Miami -7.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
While Miami is technically not ruled out for the playoffs, at 5-8 they may as well be. The Jags are depressing. They sold out this past weekend because Tim Tebow was standing on the sidelines. Imagine if they had actually signed the guy, they’d sell out every game and maybe have more than two wins. Ugh. Miami to win.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans -4.5
The Bucs blew it last week, they really did. Against a struggling Eagles team they managed to give it up in the end, and got seriously fucked. Now, at 6-7 instead of 7-6, the hill to climb to the playoffs is nearly insurmountable. Plus, they have to play in the Superdome this week against a team that just got unsuspended. No more bountygate, no more stress around that situation. The Saints will be playing revitalized and ready to fuck shit up. Saints to win.

Denver at Baltimore +2.5
Denver is their division winner already. The Ravens, at 9-4 are not. They have to win this week in order to clinch the division. But can they do it against a Denver team that has only lost to top tier teams? Are the Ravens top tier? Not since injuries ravaged their defensive front. While Ray Rice can cut through most lines, the 5th rated rush defense of the Broncos is going to give him problems. And Manning vs. a depleted Ravens secondary? Forget it. The Ravens are giving up major yards in the secondary. Just look a what the Redskins managed last week. Gave up nearly 300 yards passing, over 150 rushing. I’m taking the Broncos to win here, giving the Bengals another shot.

Indianapolis at Houston -9.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Indy is going to make the playoffs. The only teams in the AFC with better records are the division leaders. A win here would be significant, but the Colts are huge underdogs. My hope is that they spent this week watching tape of Brady dismantling the Houston secondary. The Colts have a strong offensive line, and can easily open up similar passing lanes for Luck. He’s no Brady – yet, but he can power a game. The Texans meanwhile may already be in playoff mode, which was evident on defense and offense. Their line made the Patriots low ranked defensive front look pretty damn good. Does it happen again this week? Do the Texans lose? I think they do, in overtime. Colts to upset.

Seattle at Buffalo +5.5
The Bills just love throwing away late leads don’t they? What a terrible team right now. Just sad to watch. The Seahawks will follow in the Rams footsteps this week, though wait – even though Pete Carroll pulled his starters in the romp last week, he still kept calling passing plays late in the game to roll up the score. Karma is a bitch Pete. Though lets be serious, no matter how much the football gods influence the game, it won’t be with a loss to the Bills. Hawks to win on the road.

Detroit at Arizona +6.0
The Lions have lost five in a row and finish the season against the Falcons and the Bears. This is their last chance for another win, a fifth win. What a terrible season. They haven’t been plagued by injury, instead they’ve been plagued by a coach who can’t manage certain defensive players who act like spoiled little bastards and haven’t done anything special besides kick people in the nuts and draw attention to themselves. Lacking a serious running game, unable to get Johnson out of double coverage (yet, he still might get the receiving record) the Lions have been shit. This week they win, only cause if they are shit, Arizona is whatever they are shitting in.

Carolina at San Diego -3.0
Another team mathematically still in it are the Chargers, but let’s be real here. Even with a win over the Steelers, the Chargers are still not going to make the playoffs. The thing is, with that win, Norv Turner will most likely get to keep his job. Thanks to some great receiver play from Alexander and Rivers actually looking all grown-up and shit. However, the Chargers welcome the unpredictable Panthers to town, who at 4-9 have nothing to lose by going batshit down the stretch. Big runs from Cam, big passes as well. Panthers to upset.

Pittsburgh at Dallas +1.0
This is an interesting game, like the schedule was written with knowledge of the future. Both teams at 7-6, both teams coming off a surprising game, one which saw a home loss and one which saw a road upset. The Cowboys, at home, are pretty terrible, but Romo shows those signs of greatness. With Dez Bryant out and a running game that is nearly non-existent this season, the Cowboys will have a tough time against the Steelers corners. Big Ben is back, probably wearing a shit ton of body armor, limiting mobility. I’m taking the Cowboys to win here, not sure why, just a gut feeling.

Kansas City at Oakland -1.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!! #2
Five wins combined, turnover city for both teams… yeah, who gives a shit. Oakland fans, are you as disappointed as KC fans? You should be. What a dump.

San Francisco at New England -3.0
Is there any question the Patriots have the best offense in the league? And their defense didn’t look too shabby holding the Texans to 14 points on Monday night. Now another night game against another supposedly elite team. The Niners want to win if they want to keep the Seahawks at bay. But an away game, in the possible snow, no way – the Patriots got this one man. I like that Kaepernick kid, but I don’t think it was wise to just bench Smith for no reason, that kid can win too. I think they’ll need his experience against the Pats. Regardless, the Pats score at will, so Pats to win. By more than three.

NY Jets at Tennessee -1.0
And finally this week we come to the 4-9 Titans at home against a Jets team that just can’t seem to go away. They don’t completely suck, but they have certain moments of suck. Which team am I talking about? Both of them. The Titans win, Johnson finally runs for 200 yards, 2 touchdowns and Jake Locker goes for 400 in the air. Final score, 56-12.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Championship Weekend

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Niners vs. Giants. Should be a new classic.

I’m not going to bore you with mindless statistics and blather. The fact is that last week was a tough week to pick and statistics did not lie. 75% of the home teams won, but not the 75% I picked. By the time the Giants v Packers game started, three home teams had won. So I loudly declared to pretty much one person that the Giants were going to win the game. They did, and the Packers, who had a monumental season all for naught, are done. Now we have four teams left and picking the winners is toughest it’s been all season.

That being said, it is only two games so I have to fill up this space with something. So in personal news, I’ll be in Chicago this week (Friday – Sunday) attending a Kenmore event at their bequest. If you are around, or just on Twitter, come hang out downtown Chicago. CC will be there with me as well, killing some deep dish. On with the picks!

AFC Championship: Baltimore at New England
Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
Line: 50.0 O/U -7.5

This game is the proof – does defense win championships? The Patriots have a bottom ranked defense, yet they sure came alive against the Broncos – but the Broncos defense was also terrible, so there’s that. The Patriots have won games with offense all year long, and I don’t expect that strategy to totally turn around in a week. They are going to come into this game firing and looking to rack up the score against the defensive minded Ravens. It’s not going to happen. The Ravens held the Texans, who in effect – held the Ravens. The Ravens offensive line didn’t perform as well as they should have, but really have nothing to worry about with the weak pass rush of the Patriots. Sure, they managed to fluster Tebow a couple times, but that was a fluke. Most of the time he had all day and then some to throw. The Ravens are going to force the Patriots hand on offense, as their defense will be swarming Brady and throwing off his timing. This is what I said the Broncos needed to do, but failed to do. Everything about the Patriots offense is timing, especially with the routes run by the tight ends. On the offensive side of the ball for the Ravens, they’ll have to tighten up their protection a bit and re-establish the running game, which should be easy against the Patriots poor run defense. Bottom line, the Patriots don’t have the defense to stop the Ravens mediocre offense, and they might have a powerful offense, but defense wins championships. Bottom line. On championship weekend the statistics state that 50% of the home teams win. So in this one, I’m taking the Ravens to overcome and get into the Superbowl, against (obviously) the Niners, and I’ll tell you why in the next paragraph.

NFC Championship: New York at San Francisco
Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
Line: 44.0 O/U -2.0

Everyone loves the Giants in this game, because they can’t believe that the Niners are restoring their franchise to glory. Where Singletary coached with negative enforcement, Harbaugh coaches with positive reinforcement, something that was evident in Vernon Davis’ tears and hug after he scored the winning touchdown last week. That was the Saints game to lose, and they made sure to lose, especially on that last drive when their secondary seemed to forget they were still playing a game and gave the Niners the whole field. So now the Niners welcome the hot and cold Giants to town, who turn it on when they need to. And they needed to last week and they damn sure did. They ran the Packers right off their own field, dominating on offense and on defense. They made it look easy. Part of that might have been the Packers offense not playing up to par with all the drops, but the pressure on Rodgers helped as well. Against the Niners, they are going up against probably the best fundamental defense in the league. Rather than go for the flashy Sportscenter play, the Niners just plain cover and tackle well. They bump receivers at the line to throw off timing, they get the pressure on with their front four, rarely running a crazy eight man blitz and almost always win the turnover game. Their defense will stifle Manning and his receivers, so the Giants will have to rely on their own defense. They might have a slight edge over the Niners offense in that case, but Alex Smith is a legit playmaker, but he gets no love for it. Right now, his report with his receivers is the best it’s ever been. I’m taking the Niners to win at home, and for this game to become a new classic. Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh in the Superbowl. You want to know who I’m going to pick to win that game? You’ll have to wait two weeks.

Next week: Pro Bowl Idiocy and where I went wrong with my pre-season picks.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Wild-Card Weekend

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

"Hey Joe, see you next week. Maybe."


With the regular season over it’s time to ask the question we ask every playoff season in the NFL – does defense win championships? The Packers and the Patriots have the leagues Worst defenses, but the leagues best offenses. The Steelers, Niners, Texans and Ravens have the best defenses with moderate offenses. So does defense win championships? Well, history would tell us that they do, but history hasn’t seen offenses like the Packers, Saints and Patriots.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens. And consider this stat, the last three teams the Steelers have beaten in the Superbowl were the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. This year, they are in and the Niners are in. So are they fated to meet in the big game so the Steelers can sweep the NFC West? Another fun storyline. Only four games to pick this week, so let’s get this done.

Cincinnati at Houston
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -3.0
Once the Texans secured a playoff spot, they stopped winning. They also lost another QB to injury. So now they are down to Jake Delhomme, who I don’t put a lot of confidence in. Hell, who wants to put anything into a one time starter who is now the 4th string QB? Hopefully Yates will be back in the game, as his injury wasn’t as severe as the Matts. The Bengals are playing smart football right now, but were unable to beat teams with better defenses than them, namely the Ravens and the Steelers. While teams tend to play different (or better) in the playoffs, the Bengals have to really step it up to beat the Texans and their defense, who play with a similar attack as the Ravens. I’m taking the Bengals in this game though, because Andy Dalton has been quite impressive this season. Their offense has really clicked this year, and while they haven’t beaten tough defenses, they have the tools to do so. Based on the QB siutation in Houston, Bengals to win.

Detroit at New Orleans
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: 11.0
My 11 year old pointed out that as dominant as the Saints have been since their Superbowl win, they still got beat in the playoffs last year by the Seahawks, who had won their division at 8-8 and played at the Saints in the dome. So the Lions, who have had a back and forth season now slide down to the dome to play the Saints, who have all the advantages. They set all kinds of offensive records this year, and the Lions, well, they got into the playoffs. That’s a huge win for them. The Saints have the offense, and the defense to get it done with little trouble. The problem is going to be if the defense of the Lions can play without penalty after penalty. I doubt they can, their agressiveness level will be at an all time high. I’m taking the Saints to win this game, just for the same reason I picked them last year. On paper they are the better team but as they showed last year, anything can happen. Saints at home.

Atlanta at NY Giants
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -3.0
I was reading something, I don’t remember what, that said Matt Ryan is not Drew Brees, not Tom Brady and not Eli Manning. That’s right, he’s not but he’s a damn accurate QB with the best running game in the playoffs. The Falcons will have a few surprises in store for the Giants in the ground game, but they’ll be up against the best part of the Giants, which is the front four. The offense struggles at times, as Cruz is good for the big play when he can get open, but that doesn’t happen as often as it should. The Giants have to attack quickly so the Falcons can’t ground out the clock on the ground. They need to force Ryan to the air as quickly as possible. For the Falcons, they need to hold the run game and push the Giants defense back for as long as possible. Tire them out and dry out the offence on the bench. I’m taking the Falcons to win here, just because of the running game.

Pittsburgh at Denver
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +9.0
The Broncos backed into the playoffs thanks to the Raiders completely sucking and getting beat by the Chargers. That’s all in the past now. The Broncos, finishing the season at an even 8-8 are hosting a playoff game this weekend, which begs for the argument that the playoffs should be a seeded system based on record for homefield advantage. The Steelers, at an impressive 12-4 have to play an away game for the Wild-Card. That’s bullshit right there. Either way, they roll into Denver and have all the advantages in this game. At one point seeming like a visionary, John Fox has coached Denver into three straight losses, making Tebow look like a terrible QB by abandoning the run too early, but then keeping all the passing short instead of just letting Tebow loose on the field. Teams have kind of figured out the read option, but if Denver brings the run back, then they have their advantage back. It won’t matter though, with James Harrison on the other side of the ball, Tebow is going to be scrambling a lot. I’d love to see Denver win this game, but they won’t. Maybe I shouldn’t put it that way. They might. If they watch some tape, and see the way Cleveland (not a playoff team or anywhere close) ground out the Steelers, they might have a chance. They have to run the ball and they have to let Tebow take chances. Even Elway wants Tebow to throw more. One of the reasons for three straight losses was ultra-conservative play calling. This is the playoffs, you are 8-8 and no one gave you a rats chance in hell of winning, take some fucking chances. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year, which gives Denver a chance at taking advantage. We’ll see. Pittsburgh to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 17

Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Watch your back Drew, here comes Brady


So I’m thinking of instead of making this a general sports column when the season is over, just turning it into the weekly Tebow report. Just kidding. I’m still fishing for good ideas though, I’m sure that I’ll think of something. Speaking about Tebow though, was Jesus on vacation on his birthday weekend or something? Four interceptions? Nah, it was because for some reason Fox dropped the read option after the first quarter which allowed the Bills excellent corners to drop back and make it easy to intercept Tebow. Of course, there were also some more drops by the Denver receivers… what am I doing? Moving on.

This week is all divisional and while some playoff teams have little to gain by winning, and some teams have nothing to lose, some teams are still fighting for a playoff spot. Now, no team WANTS to lose – ever. That’s proven by the 0-13 Colts now at 2-13 and most likely losing dibs on the first round first pick. The AFC West and NFC East are still undecided and up to four teams are in the running for the last wild card in the AFC. It’s a race to the finish in Week 17. Next week we’ll look at the playoffs, and take a look back at my season start predictions to see how wrong, or right, I was.

For this week though, sixteen games between now and the playoffs. There is no crapfest this week, there is no featured game, there is no upset special. Too many games have playoff implications and I totally forgot to make those selections before I wrote this lede. So there’s that. Alright, enough, how about some picks?

Detroit at Green Bay Line: +3.5
Detroit is in. Green Bay is in. Neither of these teams have anything to play for so I guarantee you that they’ll be resting starters. It’ll be like a preseason game. And if I was Green Bay, I wouldn’t play Rodgers at all for risk of injury against a notoriously violent and highly penalized Detroit team. They can’t risk that at all, and I’m not saying they’ll intentionally be gunning for Rodgers, but they will. Either way, the defense won’t be resting much. Packers to win at home on their way to a two week break before the divisional match-ups.

San Francisco at St. Louis Line: +10.5
The Niners have not yet sealed up a first round bye advantage in the playoffs, a win here and a New Orleans loss would do that, I think. I’m not sure who would hold the tiebreaker here. Either way, the Niners don’t even have to put an offense on the field to win against the Rams, they can just play straight defense and the Rams terrible offense should give up the ball enough for the Niners to score. I think that line is a bit generous, but Niners to win on the road.

NY Jets at Miami Line: -1.0
I’m really looking forward to this game. After losing to the Giants, Rex Ryan still had the audacity to pick a verbal fight with Brandon Jacobs, then still predict his team would make the playoffs and win the Superbowl. He’s out of his fucking mind. I’m looking for the Dolphins to put the Jets out of their misery and push them out of playoff contention. This is going to be a good back and forth game, with big plays being made on the defensive side of the ball. Look for Miami to jump the Jets and smack them down. Miami to win at home.

Chicago at Minnesota Line: -0.0
The Bears season has turned into quite a farce, while the Vikings season was one to begin with. Now, with Adrian Peterson out with a torn ACL and MCL, their future is in question. No doubt they’ll be drafting a running back high in the draft. Meanwhile, the Bears have not won since Cutler went down and we can all blame Martz for that. Martz should be fired at the end of the year for his inability to adapt to a new quarterback and inability to switch up the offense. He’s a great coordinator, but he messed up here letting his ego get in the way of running the offense based on the skills of the QB. The Vikings will win this week, just cause of Webb being able to run around like a mad chicken. Vikings at home.

Buffalo at New England Line: -11.5
The Patriots have sealed up everything playoff related besides home field advantage. They don’t need to win, but they need Baltimore to lose in that case. But let’s be honest here. Brady is 190 passing yards behind Drew Brees for the passing record, and while he’ll be hard pressed to surpass him, you know damn well that Bellichick will keep him in the game as long as possible to beat Brees to get the record at the end of the season. The Bills, while looking impressive against Denver, are not that great of a team sadly. They had a lot of potential, so what happened? I have no idea really, besides the new contract for Fitz. So, Patriots to win at home.

Carolina at New Orleans Line: -9.0
Same deal as the Niners game here, with a little twist. The Saints are looking for a first round bye and they need to win to do that. Also, Brees has surpassed Marino for the passing record, and I expect him to play nearly a full game here to put a bit of padding into that record. Plus, Payton is the type of coach that would keep his starters in the game, risking injury to pad that record, since he’d be the coach of record when that record was set. The Panthers have had a positive season. First off, Cam Newton is a superstar, and he set the record for most rushing TD’s by a QB. Second, they didn’t finish last. They will be finishing ahead of the Buccaneers, which is positive. However, Saints to win at home.

Washington at Philadelphia Line: -9.5
Since it’s impossible that both the Giants and Cowboys will lose this week (they play each other) the Eagles won’t be making the playoffs. Thank Odin. However, they did throw a wrench into things last week with their win over the Cowboys. So now they get to finish the season at home against the Redskins, a team that once again failed to find an identity and didn’t amount to anything. The Eagles are going to finish 8-8, but considering the talent on this team, and the money spent that’s like the Yankees finishing dead last behind the Orioles. Eagles fans have got to be disappointed. Is it worth firing Andy Reid over? No. Unless he does it again next year. Eagles at home.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville Line: -3.5
The Colts, with two wins have only this game to lose before getting beat to the number one pick in the draft. Can they do it? Can they lose on the road to the Jaguars? Like I said, no team wants to lose, and Orlofsky certainly doesn’t want to lose, as he’s now won two straight. Last week’s win against the Texans was epic and a great thing to add to his resume if he wants a starting job somewhere next year. I’m sure KC, Arizona and a few others will be looking. So the Jags only bright spot this season has been the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. Gabbart was horrendous to watch, the kid was just not ready. Hopefully he gets a veteran to study under before getting another shot. Anyway, I’m taking the Colts to win, which should make the draft interesting. Will they trade up for Luck? Colts on the road.

Tennessee at Houston Line: +1.5
Houston has a hard road ahead of them, thanks to some less than stellar play since they clinched the playoffs. A couple of losses later, and now they are going in without a bye or home-field advantage. Hopefully Wade Phillips is back this week because some of the defensive decisions the past two weeks were terrible and they’ll need him for the playoffs. They can take a loss here and nothing will change. Except for their record. They made the playoffs for the first time in team history, let’s finish on a high note. Of course, they don’t have any back-ups sitting around in case Yates gets hurt. The Titans season has been forgettable to say the least. Chris Johnson took 2/3 of the season to apparently bathe in his millions of dollars due to the new contract before he decided to start earning it. I think the lack of an offseason really hurt the offensive line of the Titans. However, a Titans win with Denver, Oakland and Jets losing does mean playoffs – so there’s that. Cross your fingers Titans fans, it’s gonna be interesting. Titans to win.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Line: -12.0
The Bucs are a joke this year, which is sad because as a non-Bucs fan living in Tampa I actually picked them to go to the playoffs. Whatever. The Falcons are pissed cause Brees stayed in the game last week, which sounds like hapless whining to me and should piss off the Football Gods. If you can’t beat the Saints now what makes us think you can beat anyone in the first round of the playoffs? Atlanta is in and really can’t improve their position so they’ll be resting starters. Doesn’t matter, the Bucs have given up for sure. Falcons to win at home.

Baltimore at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
The Ravens and Steelers are tied atop the division right now, winner gets the division and they both are already going to the playoffs. Clearly, this scenario favors the Steelers as they have the Browns, whereas the Ravens have the Bengals, who they’ve already beaten once this year. The Bengals, so close to being dominant were unable to beat the Ravens or the Steelers this year and need a win here to get into the playoffs. Well, a loss might do it – but everyone else would have to lose too. Sadly, I don’t think that the Bengals will be able to beat the Ravens this year. They just aren’t there yet. The defensive pressure is too much for Dalton at this point. He does tend to make good decisions when under pressure, so that helps. But I’m taking the Ravens to win. The AFC Wild-Card is still up for grabs.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland Line: -0.0
I looked twice, that line seemed to be for real. Even though the Steelers absolutely have to win to get the division and not a wild-card spot. Even with a Ravens loss and a Steelers loss, the Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers since they beat them twice this year. The Browns have had a disappointing season to say the least, always finding a way to lose late in the game rather than a way to win. They blew their chance against the Ravens last week when they were drawn offsides on a 4th and 2 with two minutes left in the game, essentially handing the Ravens the win. Pathetic. I’m not counting them out against the Steelers, I just can’t pick them. Ah hell, Browns to magically win at home, but just cause Ben will probably still be out or at least only take half the snaps.

Kansas City at Denver Line: -3.5
Like I said in the open, the clocks stopped on Tebow Time last week. For some reason Fox abandoned the read option midway through the game and let the Bills defensive backs settle into their own read option, reading where Tebow was being forced to throw the ball. So the Chiefs come into town, and look at that – it’s Kyle Orton, formerly traded from the the Bears to the Broncos then waived earlier this year in favor of Tebow. Will Orton get his revenge on the team that cast him out and cast them out of the playoffs? A Denver loss and Oakland win will do just that. The only chance Denver has is to win. The Chiefs are going to make that tough, but I think the Broncos get a lead early and keep it. Broncos at home.

San Diego at Oakland Line: -3.0
The Chargers, who took a serious beating last week at the hands of the Lions, look to finish their season on a high note by playing spoiler for the Raiders. The Raiders need to win and hope the Broncos lose in order to make the playoffs, which is a tough scenario for a team that had so much promise in the first half of the season. Plagued by injuries and penalties they were unable to overcome but still have a chance. Last week one of the things I guaranteed happens in December didn’t happen, well, neither of them happened, but relevant to this – Rivers lost. Do I think he loses again in the month of December? Nope. Because football is on Sunday, which is the 1st of January. I’m taking the Chargers to win and send the Broncos to the playoffs.

Seattle at Arizona Line: -3.0
The Cardinals season fell short, the Seahawks season fell short. I guess 7-9 wasn’t going to do it this year (as it did last year.) So now both these teams are out and this game is just for shits and giggles. It is the difference between a losing and winning season though, so they’ll be out there, playing hard or whatever. Who cares? I can’t find myself every caring about these teams. Um, Seahawks to win.

Dallas at NY Giants Line: -2.5
This game is awesome. I love that it’s the last game of the season, I love that neither of these half ass teams have made the playoffs yet and it comes down to this. I love that Romo has a hurt hand. I love that Eli can look amazing one week, then throw four interceptions the next. I love that the Eagles dominated both these teams yet will not win the division or get into the playoffs. Two weeks ago (I think) I predicted that the Giants would beat the Cowboys in Dallas (they did) and the Cowboys will win in New York. So, Cowboys to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 15

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Overrated.



Week 15 can be a very depressing week. That’s the week that I realize that I’ve been completely eliminated from all my fantasy football leagues, and in this case, I’ve got to pay out for the one that I’m running. Considering I already spent all their money, I’ve got to sell some plasma, sperm, blood, whatever to get the three hundred bucks. So there’s that.

I went 13-3 last week, which brings me to 134-74 (64%) on the season. That’s not too shabby. I’d like to finish above 65% so the next couple weeks are going to be paramount. I would have done better last week, but for some reason I forgot that the Chargers turn it on in December and the Bills suck right now. Meh, such is life. So this week we have a Thursday night game and a Saturday night game. Neither of which I’ll probably be watching. If it ain’t on RedZone then forget it. Except for the first time this season there is a Monday night game worth watching.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, this year this column will end the week after the Superbowl like previous years, but I’m going to do something different than “the Week in Sports” because frankly, I don’t give a shit about the NBA. Really, I don’t. Quit talking to me about it. On with the picks!

Featured Game

NY Jets at Philadelphia Line: -3.0
This weeks featured game was a tough one. Most of the match-ups are winners versus losers, save for the Monday night game and a couple others. Here’s the reason I chose to highlight this game – because I’m tired of the fucking Eagles. The Eagles, while winning last week, are terribly overrated and have pissed me off since day one. First, that dirtbag Vick gets a huge contract (and Tebow gets railed for running around) and then they start losing. Yet, they are still constantly in the playoff conversation. Why? Why are they still talking about the Eagles like they are going to make the playoffs? Even now, they are still in the conversation. I don’t want them to be in the conversation anymore. Last week the Jets put it on strong and layed down a whupping. I think they roll like that again this week. The key is going to be stopping the running game of the Eagles which isn’t that bad. So I’m taking the Jets to win on the road and for the love of all that is holy, take the Eagles out of any conversation except the biggest busts of the year.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Jacksonville at Atlanta Line: -11.5
Don’t let the Jags domination over the Bucs lull you into a false sense of anything. The Bucs were unable to stop MJD and his four touchdowns. However, if he has a repeat performance you could be looking at a near upset here. It took all of four quarters for the Falcons to get control of the run defense against the Panthers, relying on the quick play of Matt Ryan and the offense to make up the deficit and pull off the win. Yes, the Falcons will probably jump out to an early lead here, nullifying a slow running game build-up on the Jags side. If the Jags can somehow get out in front first, perhaps they can compete and control the tempo. I don’t see that happening though. Atlanta to win at home.

Dallas at Tampa Bay Line: +7.0
Both these teams had laughable games last week. The Bucs because they totally got smoked by the inferior Jags, and the Cowboys because a week after icing their own kicker, he gets iced and blocked by the opposing team. Up until that point, the Cowboys were just getting lucky. The most overrated team in the league. Good thing they get to play the Bucs. The first and last time I went to a Bucs game it was a season opener against the Cowboys in which the Bucs got pistol whipped up and down the field. I don’t see this contest being any different. The Bucs have been a disappointment all season. What went wrong? Blount is having a good year, but the offense isn’t rallying around him. And the defense is not winning the takeaway game. Dallas to win on the road.

Miami at Buffalo Line: +1.5
Ah, this was always one of my favorite match-ups year in and year out. Recently, it’s been a little stale. The Dolphins surprised me last week – by losing. One of the three games I was wrong on. I really thought they could keep up their win streak. But perhaps Sporano already knew he was out. But it wasn’t coaching, it was mistake after mistake and really shoddy defense. They looked like the Bills look now, which should make this an interesting match-up this week. If the Dolphins come in hot, they can win easy. If the Bills get back to early season form, then perhaps they’ll win. This game could literally go either way. But then, so could every single game every single week. Buffalo to win just cause it’ll be cold out.

Seattle at Chicago Line: -3.5
In Barber’s defense, he was heading for a seam up the sideline and was pushed out. Momentum carried him out of bounds. Of course, he should have been running towards the middle of the field, but instinct took over. The fumble, can’t forgive that. Gotta protect the ball late in the game. Really though, neither Gould or Prater hit those field goals if the game had been in Chicago. The thin mountain air is what killed the Bears. Not to mention the early ground and pound. The scrappy Seahawks are riding in, coming in off another big win. Of course, the Bears are not the Rams and their defense can be stifling. Does Lynch still have it in him to push through the Chicago defense? The Chicago running game is dead, so they have to rely on Hanie since I don’t think Cutler is coming back yet. This should be a fun game, but this is the time of year the percentages really favor the home team. Bears to win at home.

Tennessee at Indianapolis Line: +6.5
Can the Colts rise up and play spoiler? The Titans are less than quietly rising up in the AFC wild-card chase, and still have a pretty good shot at nabbing a playoff spot. However, they still have some hurdles, eh, who am I kidding? The Colts run defense is non-existent and Chris Johnson is finally back up to speed. He’s going to tear apart the Colts on the ground. I bet he runs for 200+ yards easy. Jake Locker will be in at QB this week, wait, are the Titans still in it? I dunno. I don’t feel like pulling up the rankings. Either way, they’ll win. Titans on the road.

Green Bay at Kansas City Line: +14.0
Todd Hailey is out. Who cares? He had a terrible record in his short tenure at KC. This team is a mess. How much do I need to write here? Green Bay will be 18-1 this year, after Tebow beats them in the Superbowl with a last second jump pass at the goal line. This week, Green Bay to win. They could play their practice squad guys and still win.

Cincinnati at St. Louis Line: +7.0
The Bengals had the game well in hand last week, what happened? How did they let a rookie QB drive the length of the field to win the game with a wide open touchdown pass? Well, it’s all about defense. On that last drive, the Texans came right at the Bengals secondary, shooting the gap and taking advantage of the prevent defense. The prevent defense only prevents you from winning! The Bengals were rushing Yates, thinking he would make a mistake or take a sack – he didn’t. The Bengals failed on defense late in the game, when it mattered most. Which is why they haven’t beaten the Steelers or Ravens this year. They can’t compete at a high level. Thankfully for them, they’ll be competing at a low level this week when they visit the struggling Rams. But remember, the Rams throttled the Saints this year, and while that might have been a fluke, they can get it going on defense when they need to. But Dalton is a smart rookie QB with adequate protection. I think the Bengals win, but on the luck of a late field goal.

New Orleans at Minnesota Line: +7.0
The Saints, well, you can’t count them out of a game. That’s for sure. Brees got a bit flustered last week against the Titans, but prevailed late. It was interesting seeing the Saints playing from behind, but really not switching up their game plan. Sproles is a very explosive player and he’s going to tear up the field against the Vikings. The thing is, the Vikings don’t really suck. Ponder has done a great job this year, but had a bad game last week. He was relieved by Joe Webb who nearly led his team to a win. That last bullshit non-call on the facemask that caused the fumble is the only reason the Vikings didn’t pull out a win against the once great (this year at least) Lions. I’m trying to talk myself into picking an upset here, but I can’t realistically do that. The Saints have too much offensive power to lose to the Vikings. Unlike the Lions, who have one premier receiver (Megatron) and covering him mucks up the whole offensive plan. The Saints have too many weapons for that to work. Saints on the road.

Washington at NY Giants Line: -7.0
The word “elite” has been thrown around lately in the same sentence as the word “Eli.” Is Manning really an elite QB? His last minute comeback against Dallas (aided by a blocked field goal) would suggest to me that he is. This isn’t the first time he’s done that for sure. With Peyton out, probably forever, we only have one Manning to look forward to watching on Sundays, so he better fucking be elite. This isn’t the McCown family we’re talking about here. The Redskins are terrible. Seriously. They can find a way to lose a game like no other team and it all continuously comes down to shitty play calling and lapses on defense. They had the Patriots, but surely couldn’t close or hold the game. They play division rival Giants, they lose. Giants to win.

Carolina at Houston Line: -6.5
Wade Phillips is out for two games. I know that might not matter to you, but he’s brought this team from the 30th ranked defense to the 2nd ranked defense in the span of a season. That’s important, especially now that the Texans have made the playoffs for the first time ever. So do they need to keep winning? They certainly do. The Panthers roll in, hot after a loss to the Falcons. Again, too many mistakes and holes on defense kept the Panthers from the win. Newton looked good, but was chased the whole game. He’s gonna have to be wearing his running shoes against the Texans for sure. In fact, I think there is a whipping in the making here. Newton and his overconfidence will be shut down against the front of the Texans defense. No matter what week it is in the NFL, every team wants to win. I just don’t think the Panthers will this week. Houston at home.

Detroit at Oakland Line: +1.0
Detroit now, is a joke. I picked them and their dirty ass defense to win last week just cause they were at home. That late facemask should have given the Vikings another shot to pull off the win, but it wasn’t flagged. Lame. This week, they travel to Oakland, who got flogged by the Packers last week. But that was the Packers. The Raiders are falling apart however, everywhere from Carson Palmer on down. His play has been mediocre at best and the running game left with McFadden. The only highlight is a snippet of pass rush which was non-existent against Green Bay. So can the Raiders entertain the home crowd with a win against a dirty team? Since both teams are near the top of the most penalized list, this should be a nice, violent game. Oakland to win at home, just cause they are at home.

New England at Denver Line: +7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
You had to see this one coming right? I’ve been riding the Tebow train since it left the station and there is no way I’m going to stop now. Last week he stated in the after game press conference that it wasn’t “Tebow Time,” it was Bronco Time. He blamed his team for the win, taking little credit yet still has a large chunk of haters. I don’t get it. The guy is class act. He’s mind fucking the entire league. Now, if only he could play 4th quarter football the entire game. Actually, it’s not that. The Broncos pound opposing defenses with a constant running attack the first three quarters, so when the 4th comes around the defense is tired and worn out and that opens up the passing game. Hence Tebows amazing stats in the second half versus the first. Now they have one of the worst defenses rolling into town, with one of the best offenses. I fully expect coach Fox to have made the appropriate adjustments. I’d look for Tebow to be passing early, when the Patriots are expecting the run. I could be wrong, but as long as the Denver defense keeps up the pressure on Brady I see the Broncos prevailing here. The Patiots nearly gave the game away to the Redskins last week, because of the horrid defense. The Broncos are playing much better than the Skins. Doesn’t matter, Denver to win at home.

Cleveland at Arizona Line: -6.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Meh. Who cares? Ok, fine. The Cardinals surprised pretty much everyone last week beating the Niners. I’m thinking that was more of a lapse on the Niners than the Cardinals (who are still inexplicably in the playoff hunt) stepping up. The fact is, Larry Fitzgerald is a beast. The dude was catching balls that should not have been caught by any normal human being. Without him, Arizona does not win that game or even compete. It’s not like Kolb or Skelton are throwing bullets like Rodgers. Especially Skelton, who still has issues with control. The Browns are terrible, which is unfortunate because at the beginning of the season they didn’t look that terrible, especially on defense. But you know what, considering that neither of these teams is especially good on either side of the ball, I’m taking my Browns to win. Just cause.

Baltimore at San Diego Line: +1.0
This is an interesting game. The Ravens are fighting with the Steelers for control of the division. Plus, Ray Lewis comes back this week, which should step up the defense of the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Chargers are playing like they should have been all season, once again busting out in December to make a run at the division. Well, they are two games behind the Broncos but winning. Rivers is nearly unstoppable in the month of December. Can he make the playoffs this year? Can he beat the Ravens? I say yes. I say at home, in December the Chargers will prevail in this game through sheer offensive prowess.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco Line: -2.5
Finally, a good Monday night game. Limpy McRapist (Big Ben) will be without his best (and dirtiest) defensive player – James Harrison. Harrison will be serving a one game suspension for his helmet to helmet hit on Colt McCoy last week. The Steelers struggled against the Browns, unable to really punch in a running game. The Browns were unable to stop the pass attack late in the game when Ben came back into the game. The Niners lost to the Cardinals, and I still haven’t figured out why. For what I can tell, it was because Fitzgerald was taller than everyone in the Niners secondary. That will be the case again against the Steelers secondary and while the Niners can stop the run, they might have some trouble against the passing attack of the Steelers. I know the Niners are favored in this game, but they might be a bit on the relax in the back of their heads due to already clinching the division. Steelers to win on the road.

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