Posts About ‘Patriots’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Superbowl XLVI

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012

What a pretty trophy.

Welcome to the big game. I’m here in Indianapolis, hanging out on Media Day and trying to find a path through the crowd so I can touch Mel Kiper’s hair. I don’t understand why they let all these fans in. All they are doing is stinking up the joint with their handfuls of nachos and sweat stained Peyton Manning jerseys. There are no Giants or Patriots fans here. I spoke to one of the volunteers, he said that they’ll be flying in several thousand corporate ticket holders, like a ton of people from Doritos, slap some jerseys on them and hope they cheer at the right time. That’s fucked up. There will be no true fans in the building.

I spent a few minutes out in the parking lot with the true fans, guys wearing meatball stained Brady jerseys who drove all the way from the armpits of Boston. They are grilling, drunk at 8am on a Tuesday and they won’t get in the game. A lot of them will go home with citations and injuries. There is a surprising amount of sex going on, considering the weather and how most of the fans are quite overweight. I don’t talk to anyone about how most of the seats are going to be taken up by corporate sponsors, media & all the players baby mamas. There is a whole numbered section reserved just for women that Ochocinco has knocked up. What I do talk to them about is who they think is going to win and why, but honestly they were too drunk and belligerent to get any straight answers beyond “Giants rule!” or “Patriots Rule!” So I went back inside, hoping to sneak into the cheerleaders locker room.

Instead of naked cheerleaders, I spent some time at the brunch buffet with Archie Manning. I asked him if he was proud of his boys. In between bites of a biscuit smothered in turkey gravy, he said that he was proud of both of them, but wished that they hadn’t followed in his footsteps. I asked him why and he told me that he worries they’ll both end up injured for life, and no matter how much money they have it’s not going to matter, they’ll be broken. The game is much rougher now, he said, back in the day you worried about injury but the defense seems out to hurt. He then offered me a slice of ham also smothered in turkey gravy. As I ate the ham, I noticed Merril Hoge out of the corner of my eye.

It took me a couple minutes to get Merril’s attention, as every mirror or reflective surface (including camera lenses) he had to adjust his giant windsor knot. It was like it was stuffed with cotton. Finally I cornered him and was able to ask about his achilles heel this season, Tim Tebow. Merril was quick to point out what a Tebow honk I’ve been this season and I explained it was because I had faith in the guy. He had magic. Merril said that magic is fake and while he might have been wrong on paper, he still feels Tebow will be a bust in the NFL. I decided to drop it and ask who he thought would win the Superbowl. Not Tim Tebow he said, and walked away.

I decided to play the next hour or so fast and loose, so I followed Kelly Clarkson around, counting how many bags of travel size Lays chips she went through. For a fat chick, she smells a lot like an old lady. I guess I should have been surprised by how many linemen she tried to blow, but not surprised that she propositioned them with a mouthful of chips. When her security guy noticed I was trailing her around the stadium he chased me off with a cattle prod. I ended up hiding in Madonna’s dressing room, which was full of dead baby fetuses. Apparently the stem cells were the only thing keeping her alive. Man, that halftime show is gonna suck balls.

New York Giants at New England Patriots

February 5, 2012, 6:29 PM ET
Line: -3.0 55.0 O/U

Flashback: Superbowl XLII – after losing in their last game of the season to the Patriots 38-35 the Giants beat the Patriots in the Superbowl by a final score of 17-14. The Patriots finished the season 18-1 overall, while the Giants became the first NFC Wild-Card team to win a Superbowl. It was a major upset, and plenty of history was made as Eli Manning exceeded expectations and led a last minute, 4th quarter drive highlighted by an amazing “pinned to the helmet” catch by David Tyree. The Patriots, seemingly defeated had 35 seconds to respond, and were stopped cold by the stronger Giants defense.

Offensive/Defensive Breakdown (Giants O v. Patriots D): The Giants are a ground and pound team, with an occasional emphasis on the deep pass. Manning has got the receivers to make this happen and while he hasn’t relied as much on his tight ends as other teams, they are available to pick up outlet passes. The Giants ran, ran, ran against the Niners, who had the best run defense in the league. It paid off, as they didn’t pick up a ton of yards but ground out the game and were able to control the tempo. Manning has shades of Peyton when it comes to making adjustments, just with less wild body language. The Giants should have a smooth day on offense, as the Patriots defense, while stepping their game up and looking good against a limited Ravens offense, are still lagging in many areas, such as run defense. The Patriots defense is going to have no choice but to stack the box with five if they want to stop the run. Of course this will pull one man out of coverage, which Manning can easily exploit. The Giants will win this battle of offense v. defense. The only question is whether the Patriots can score more points.

How to Ruin a Classic: What is more appealing about the Superbowl? The game itself or the commercials? At a whopping $3.5mm for a 30 second spot, the commercials better not disappoint. Of course we’ll have a full slate of Budweiser commercials, Coke Polar Bears, Doritos causing people to act like idiots and probably that white trash Pepsi guy pretending he’s a coach. But we’ll also have a lot of car commercials, most of which will come off as douchey and pretentious. Like the ad from Honda for their CRV. In it, they (along with the vapid participation of Matthew Broderick) destroy a classic and save us the trouble of being pissed off during the game.

Many people enjoyed that ad, many people did not. Really, it doesn’t matter. It’s a fucking commercial. The larger point is this, many ads are being shown before the game. Many people watch the game for the ads (because they are mindless fucking Americans) – meh, who am I kidding? It won’t matter. It’ll still be the highest rated television program of the year, in the world, on every channel. Yearggh Football!! Screw you soccer!

Offensive/Defensive Breakdown (Patriots O v. Giants D): The Patriots have one of the most unpredictable, explosive offenses in the league. Most of it comes down to play calling and Bellichick’s ability to recognize defensive tendencies and make in-game adjustments, something many other coaches fail to do on both sides of the ball. His biggest accomplishment this year was handing TE Gronkowski with precision. When not lined up to block, he could be handling business as a receiver, or as a running back. Using Hernandez on the end around while Gronk was being double teamed was genius. Pulling Gronk back to the traditional TE set to throw off a defense that was looking for him as a wide receiver, also genius. The thing is though, that the Patriots offense is all about timing. The Ravens showed that if you disrupt their timing and get after Brady, you can hold their scoring down. The Giants have probably the best front four in the league and will certainly mess up Brady’s rhythm. Having a good front four who can apply pressure without the blitz is important, because that leaves more in coverage to handle the receivers, in this case, two very proficient tight ends.

Final Analysis: The difference between the Giants and the Ravens is that the Giants can score. Even if the Patriots defense steps up, the Giants offense is much more explosive than the Ravens offense. The Patriots defense won’t stack up in the end. While high scoring, the game against the Ravens showed that the Pats offense can be held down and smothered, which is what the Giants are going to do. I’m looking for the Giants to come out running, and to come out pushing hard on Brady. Bottom line, defense wins championships. And yes, the Patriots have a bottom ranked defense and beat the Ravens, but the Patriots defense did not play like a bottom ranked defense in that game. They played like a top ranked one. It won’t matter. The Patriots have been good this year, but have struggled against teams with a winning record, and beating the lethargic offense of the Ravens and the strange one of the Broncos won’t prepare them to face the Giants again. I’ve got the Giants winning this one, final score 27-24.

Next week: Nothing. The Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game will return in August with the NFC/AFC predictions. There might be a draft day column, but don’t hold your breath.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Pro Bowl = Lame

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

The pro bowl, who cares?

I always have trouble filling this space in the week before the Superbowl. Recently though, the NFL moved the Pro Bowl from the week after the Superbowl (where no one gave a shit about it) to the week before the Superbowl (where no one gives a shit about it). First off, the Pro Bowl selections are made before the season is even over. What the fuck is up with that? The best players haven’t even had a full season to shine? That just proves that it’s nothing more than a bullshit popularity contest. Then, consider that many players that deserve to be in the Pro Bowl aren’t, because they are playing the Superbowl. Which is where they’d rather be anyway.

So of course I have no picks this week, because the Pro Bowl is a waste of time and I don’t think I’ve watched it in about 10 years. Instead, I’m going to repost some text from the middle of the offseason where I ranked the All-Star games among all major sports. I think that Hockey has gone back to the regular format for All-Stars, rather than team captains, but the ranking hasn’t changed. Actually, I have no idea. First though, I’ll run down my pre-season playoff picks and see if I got any right.

Preseason Playoff Picks

NFC

Cowboys (division win)
Packers (division win, Superbowl)
Lions (wild-card)
Bucs (wild-card)
Falcons (division win)
Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks, Niners (division win – couldn’t decide)

AFC

Steelers (division win)
Ravens (wild-card)
Colts (division win – assuming Peyton was playing)
Texans (wild-card)
Patriots (division win, Superbowl)
Chiefs (division win)

So let’s see, I was right about the Lions, Falcons, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Patriots making the playoffs. However, only the Patriots have been my most reliable pre-season pick, yet I picked against them last week like an idiot. Whatever.

Ranking the All-Star Shenanigans

Originally posted July 2011 and I was too lazy to change the specific detail pertaining to last years dates, so deal.

#5 The NFL Pro-Bowl

This game went from being a joke, to an absolute joke. Not only do most of the players complain about going, but it’s like watching a game of touch football. Understandably, no one wants to get hurt in the last game of the season, and most of them just want to get their short vacations started. Even though now we’re seeing them experience an extended vacation. The NFL thought they solved this issue by moving the Pro-Bowl from the week after the Superbowl to the week before the Superbowl in Miami. This was a terrible idea, as now the best players in the league (you know, the ones in the Superbowl) can’t even be recognized as all-stars because they can’t play in the game. For those two reasons, the quality of play and the lack of players, this is my worst rated All-Star game. Add on the fact that the television coverage is basically second rate, the Pro-Bowl blows ass.

#4 MLB All-Star Game

Now, don’t get me wrong – I love the build-up to this game. Specifically the homerun derby, especially since they started letting players pick their hitters. This is a fun time and seems like the players truly enjoy hanging out and slamming free homeruns. Plus, a lot of charity is involved in the derby, so that’s a good thing too. It’s also a lot more entertaining to watch than the game the next day. Now, not everyone agrees with me that the MLB All-Star game is one of the worst, and that’s all well and good but I think for me it’s more the coverage that ruins it for me than the game itself. First off, Fox’s coverage of the game is way too much pomp and circumstance. This year, it was even worse when they led in with ridiculous previews for the X-Factor show. No one watching the game gives a shit. Not to mention, is anyone else just plain tired of Joe Buck?

The game itself isn’t too bad. The teams actually appear like they are trying to win the game. They are a little held back, and usually it comes down to who hits the homeruns. The pitchers are certainly holding back, as an injury on the mound is always in their minds. But what makes it real shit is that it “means something.” You can blame Bud Selig for that, in response to an All-Star game that went 11 innings with no winner, Selig decided that it would be a good idea that the winner of the All-Star game determines home field advantage in the World Series. Are you fucking kidding me? No where does home advantage mean more than in the World Series and it was determined by a meaningless game played by the most popular (because it is a popularity contest, that was assured by letting the fans vote) players and not by record as it should, and is throughout the playoffs. This is a ridiculous end result of the game, and is just plain stupid. I hope, whatever National League team (as the NL All-Stars won this year off a Cecil Fielder homerun) send a thank you note to Fielder for that win. Of course, they could also send fuck you notes to the American League pitchers, who spoon fed him that homerun. Weak.

#3 MLS All-Star Game

I’ve actually never watched a MLS All-Star game. I know that they do it a little different, the best of the U.S. teams vs. a world team like Manchester United. That’s a pretty kick-ass game, because in between dives, they actually play a hard game because it’s based on pride. Sadly, I think the American team loses a lot, but that really doesn’t matter much in the scheme of things. I’ll watch it this year, I promise.

#2 NBA All-Star Game

Like the MLB game, the best part of the NBA All-Star break is the pre-game stuff the day before. The dunk contest highlights everything that is wrong with the NBA, as far as the individualism and so on, but it’s a fucking blast to watch. They jump over cars, shoot 3-pointers and have a blast. The game itself is highly competitive for a game that doesn’t mean anything, this is the general mindset in the NBA though, so that makes sense. It’s probably the only NBA game I watch all year besides the playoffs, as it’s a true All-Star game, with a lot of who-dat players based on stats rather than pure popularity, though there is some of that. In the end though, it’s still the NBA and doesn’t have half as much energy as my number one.

#1 NHL All-Star Game

The NHL game wasn’t always my favorite. For a long while it was East vs. West, which was okay but a bit bland to watch. Then it was USA vs. Canada (or was it World, I can’t remember) but this year they blew me away with their handling of the All-Star game. They went all playground rules on us. First they picked team captains, then they staged a mock draft where the captains picked their teams. The coverage of this took itself a bit too seriously, but it was great that there was no telling who was going to be on which team. This added a level of enjoyment to it because you knew that heated rivals could end up on the same team, and they did. I don’t remember what team won, but I know the score was in the double digits on both sides.

Adding another fun dimension to the game was having the goalies miked up during the game. In between blocking shots, they were bullshitting with the announcers, just having a fun time and performing for the fans. Because in the end, that’s what this game highlighted – the fans. Before the game there was tons of fan interaction, the referees didn’t even call offsides until the 3rd period and were just letting the players play, and the fans enjoy a high scoring exhibition game. Which is what all the All-Star games should be, exhibition games for the fans, to see the best players in the league let loose a little bit so we can look at them as people like us, rather than rich superstars.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Championship Weekend

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Niners vs. Giants. Should be a new classic.

I’m not going to bore you with mindless statistics and blather. The fact is that last week was a tough week to pick and statistics did not lie. 75% of the home teams won, but not the 75% I picked. By the time the Giants v Packers game started, three home teams had won. So I loudly declared to pretty much one person that the Giants were going to win the game. They did, and the Packers, who had a monumental season all for naught, are done. Now we have four teams left and picking the winners is toughest it’s been all season.

That being said, it is only two games so I have to fill up this space with something. So in personal news, I’ll be in Chicago this week (Friday – Sunday) attending a Kenmore event at their bequest. If you are around, or just on Twitter, come hang out downtown Chicago. CC will be there with me as well, killing some deep dish. On with the picks!

AFC Championship: Baltimore at New England
Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
Line: 50.0 O/U -7.5

This game is the proof – does defense win championships? The Patriots have a bottom ranked defense, yet they sure came alive against the Broncos – but the Broncos defense was also terrible, so there’s that. The Patriots have won games with offense all year long, and I don’t expect that strategy to totally turn around in a week. They are going to come into this game firing and looking to rack up the score against the defensive minded Ravens. It’s not going to happen. The Ravens held the Texans, who in effect – held the Ravens. The Ravens offensive line didn’t perform as well as they should have, but really have nothing to worry about with the weak pass rush of the Patriots. Sure, they managed to fluster Tebow a couple times, but that was a fluke. Most of the time he had all day and then some to throw. The Ravens are going to force the Patriots hand on offense, as their defense will be swarming Brady and throwing off his timing. This is what I said the Broncos needed to do, but failed to do. Everything about the Patriots offense is timing, especially with the routes run by the tight ends. On the offensive side of the ball for the Ravens, they’ll have to tighten up their protection a bit and re-establish the running game, which should be easy against the Patriots poor run defense. Bottom line, the Patriots don’t have the defense to stop the Ravens mediocre offense, and they might have a powerful offense, but defense wins championships. Bottom line. On championship weekend the statistics state that 50% of the home teams win. So in this one, I’m taking the Ravens to overcome and get into the Superbowl, against (obviously) the Niners, and I’ll tell you why in the next paragraph.

NFC Championship: New York at San Francisco
Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
Line: 44.0 O/U -2.0

Everyone loves the Giants in this game, because they can’t believe that the Niners are restoring their franchise to glory. Where Singletary coached with negative enforcement, Harbaugh coaches with positive reinforcement, something that was evident in Vernon Davis’ tears and hug after he scored the winning touchdown last week. That was the Saints game to lose, and they made sure to lose, especially on that last drive when their secondary seemed to forget they were still playing a game and gave the Niners the whole field. So now the Niners welcome the hot and cold Giants to town, who turn it on when they need to. And they needed to last week and they damn sure did. They ran the Packers right off their own field, dominating on offense and on defense. They made it look easy. Part of that might have been the Packers offense not playing up to par with all the drops, but the pressure on Rodgers helped as well. Against the Niners, they are going up against probably the best fundamental defense in the league. Rather than go for the flashy Sportscenter play, the Niners just plain cover and tackle well. They bump receivers at the line to throw off timing, they get the pressure on with their front four, rarely running a crazy eight man blitz and almost always win the turnover game. Their defense will stifle Manning and his receivers, so the Giants will have to rely on their own defense. They might have a slight edge over the Niners offense in that case, but Alex Smith is a legit playmaker, but he gets no love for it. Right now, his report with his receivers is the best it’s ever been. I’m taking the Niners to win at home, and for this game to become a new classic. Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh in the Superbowl. You want to know who I’m going to pick to win that game? You’ll have to wait two weeks.

Next week: Pro Bowl Idiocy and where I went wrong with my pre-season picks.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 17

Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Watch your back Drew, here comes Brady


So I’m thinking of instead of making this a general sports column when the season is over, just turning it into the weekly Tebow report. Just kidding. I’m still fishing for good ideas though, I’m sure that I’ll think of something. Speaking about Tebow though, was Jesus on vacation on his birthday weekend or something? Four interceptions? Nah, it was because for some reason Fox dropped the read option after the first quarter which allowed the Bills excellent corners to drop back and make it easy to intercept Tebow. Of course, there were also some more drops by the Denver receivers… what am I doing? Moving on.

This week is all divisional and while some playoff teams have little to gain by winning, and some teams have nothing to lose, some teams are still fighting for a playoff spot. Now, no team WANTS to lose – ever. That’s proven by the 0-13 Colts now at 2-13 and most likely losing dibs on the first round first pick. The AFC West and NFC East are still undecided and up to four teams are in the running for the last wild card in the AFC. It’s a race to the finish in Week 17. Next week we’ll look at the playoffs, and take a look back at my season start predictions to see how wrong, or right, I was.

For this week though, sixteen games between now and the playoffs. There is no crapfest this week, there is no featured game, there is no upset special. Too many games have playoff implications and I totally forgot to make those selections before I wrote this lede. So there’s that. Alright, enough, how about some picks?

Detroit at Green Bay Line: +3.5
Detroit is in. Green Bay is in. Neither of these teams have anything to play for so I guarantee you that they’ll be resting starters. It’ll be like a preseason game. And if I was Green Bay, I wouldn’t play Rodgers at all for risk of injury against a notoriously violent and highly penalized Detroit team. They can’t risk that at all, and I’m not saying they’ll intentionally be gunning for Rodgers, but they will. Either way, the defense won’t be resting much. Packers to win at home on their way to a two week break before the divisional match-ups.

San Francisco at St. Louis Line: +10.5
The Niners have not yet sealed up a first round bye advantage in the playoffs, a win here and a New Orleans loss would do that, I think. I’m not sure who would hold the tiebreaker here. Either way, the Niners don’t even have to put an offense on the field to win against the Rams, they can just play straight defense and the Rams terrible offense should give up the ball enough for the Niners to score. I think that line is a bit generous, but Niners to win on the road.

NY Jets at Miami Line: -1.0
I’m really looking forward to this game. After losing to the Giants, Rex Ryan still had the audacity to pick a verbal fight with Brandon Jacobs, then still predict his team would make the playoffs and win the Superbowl. He’s out of his fucking mind. I’m looking for the Dolphins to put the Jets out of their misery and push them out of playoff contention. This is going to be a good back and forth game, with big plays being made on the defensive side of the ball. Look for Miami to jump the Jets and smack them down. Miami to win at home.

Chicago at Minnesota Line: -0.0
The Bears season has turned into quite a farce, while the Vikings season was one to begin with. Now, with Adrian Peterson out with a torn ACL and MCL, their future is in question. No doubt they’ll be drafting a running back high in the draft. Meanwhile, the Bears have not won since Cutler went down and we can all blame Martz for that. Martz should be fired at the end of the year for his inability to adapt to a new quarterback and inability to switch up the offense. He’s a great coordinator, but he messed up here letting his ego get in the way of running the offense based on the skills of the QB. The Vikings will win this week, just cause of Webb being able to run around like a mad chicken. Vikings at home.

Buffalo at New England Line: -11.5
The Patriots have sealed up everything playoff related besides home field advantage. They don’t need to win, but they need Baltimore to lose in that case. But let’s be honest here. Brady is 190 passing yards behind Drew Brees for the passing record, and while he’ll be hard pressed to surpass him, you know damn well that Bellichick will keep him in the game as long as possible to beat Brees to get the record at the end of the season. The Bills, while looking impressive against Denver, are not that great of a team sadly. They had a lot of potential, so what happened? I have no idea really, besides the new contract for Fitz. So, Patriots to win at home.

Carolina at New Orleans Line: -9.0
Same deal as the Niners game here, with a little twist. The Saints are looking for a first round bye and they need to win to do that. Also, Brees has surpassed Marino for the passing record, and I expect him to play nearly a full game here to put a bit of padding into that record. Plus, Payton is the type of coach that would keep his starters in the game, risking injury to pad that record, since he’d be the coach of record when that record was set. The Panthers have had a positive season. First off, Cam Newton is a superstar, and he set the record for most rushing TD’s by a QB. Second, they didn’t finish last. They will be finishing ahead of the Buccaneers, which is positive. However, Saints to win at home.

Washington at Philadelphia Line: -9.5
Since it’s impossible that both the Giants and Cowboys will lose this week (they play each other) the Eagles won’t be making the playoffs. Thank Odin. However, they did throw a wrench into things last week with their win over the Cowboys. So now they get to finish the season at home against the Redskins, a team that once again failed to find an identity and didn’t amount to anything. The Eagles are going to finish 8-8, but considering the talent on this team, and the money spent that’s like the Yankees finishing dead last behind the Orioles. Eagles fans have got to be disappointed. Is it worth firing Andy Reid over? No. Unless he does it again next year. Eagles at home.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville Line: -3.5
The Colts, with two wins have only this game to lose before getting beat to the number one pick in the draft. Can they do it? Can they lose on the road to the Jaguars? Like I said, no team wants to lose, and Orlofsky certainly doesn’t want to lose, as he’s now won two straight. Last week’s win against the Texans was epic and a great thing to add to his resume if he wants a starting job somewhere next year. I’m sure KC, Arizona and a few others will be looking. So the Jags only bright spot this season has been the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. Gabbart was horrendous to watch, the kid was just not ready. Hopefully he gets a veteran to study under before getting another shot. Anyway, I’m taking the Colts to win, which should make the draft interesting. Will they trade up for Luck? Colts on the road.

Tennessee at Houston Line: +1.5
Houston has a hard road ahead of them, thanks to some less than stellar play since they clinched the playoffs. A couple of losses later, and now they are going in without a bye or home-field advantage. Hopefully Wade Phillips is back this week because some of the defensive decisions the past two weeks were terrible and they’ll need him for the playoffs. They can take a loss here and nothing will change. Except for their record. They made the playoffs for the first time in team history, let’s finish on a high note. Of course, they don’t have any back-ups sitting around in case Yates gets hurt. The Titans season has been forgettable to say the least. Chris Johnson took 2/3 of the season to apparently bathe in his millions of dollars due to the new contract before he decided to start earning it. I think the lack of an offseason really hurt the offensive line of the Titans. However, a Titans win with Denver, Oakland and Jets losing does mean playoffs – so there’s that. Cross your fingers Titans fans, it’s gonna be interesting. Titans to win.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Line: -12.0
The Bucs are a joke this year, which is sad because as a non-Bucs fan living in Tampa I actually picked them to go to the playoffs. Whatever. The Falcons are pissed cause Brees stayed in the game last week, which sounds like hapless whining to me and should piss off the Football Gods. If you can’t beat the Saints now what makes us think you can beat anyone in the first round of the playoffs? Atlanta is in and really can’t improve their position so they’ll be resting starters. Doesn’t matter, the Bucs have given up for sure. Falcons to win at home.

Baltimore at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
The Ravens and Steelers are tied atop the division right now, winner gets the division and they both are already going to the playoffs. Clearly, this scenario favors the Steelers as they have the Browns, whereas the Ravens have the Bengals, who they’ve already beaten once this year. The Bengals, so close to being dominant were unable to beat the Ravens or the Steelers this year and need a win here to get into the playoffs. Well, a loss might do it – but everyone else would have to lose too. Sadly, I don’t think that the Bengals will be able to beat the Ravens this year. They just aren’t there yet. The defensive pressure is too much for Dalton at this point. He does tend to make good decisions when under pressure, so that helps. But I’m taking the Ravens to win. The AFC Wild-Card is still up for grabs.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland Line: -0.0
I looked twice, that line seemed to be for real. Even though the Steelers absolutely have to win to get the division and not a wild-card spot. Even with a Ravens loss and a Steelers loss, the Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers since they beat them twice this year. The Browns have had a disappointing season to say the least, always finding a way to lose late in the game rather than a way to win. They blew their chance against the Ravens last week when they were drawn offsides on a 4th and 2 with two minutes left in the game, essentially handing the Ravens the win. Pathetic. I’m not counting them out against the Steelers, I just can’t pick them. Ah hell, Browns to magically win at home, but just cause Ben will probably still be out or at least only take half the snaps.

Kansas City at Denver Line: -3.5
Like I said in the open, the clocks stopped on Tebow Time last week. For some reason Fox abandoned the read option midway through the game and let the Bills defensive backs settle into their own read option, reading where Tebow was being forced to throw the ball. So the Chiefs come into town, and look at that – it’s Kyle Orton, formerly traded from the the Bears to the Broncos then waived earlier this year in favor of Tebow. Will Orton get his revenge on the team that cast him out and cast them out of the playoffs? A Denver loss and Oakland win will do just that. The only chance Denver has is to win. The Chiefs are going to make that tough, but I think the Broncos get a lead early and keep it. Broncos at home.

San Diego at Oakland Line: -3.0
The Chargers, who took a serious beating last week at the hands of the Lions, look to finish their season on a high note by playing spoiler for the Raiders. The Raiders need to win and hope the Broncos lose in order to make the playoffs, which is a tough scenario for a team that had so much promise in the first half of the season. Plagued by injuries and penalties they were unable to overcome but still have a chance. Last week one of the things I guaranteed happens in December didn’t happen, well, neither of them happened, but relevant to this – Rivers lost. Do I think he loses again in the month of December? Nope. Because football is on Sunday, which is the 1st of January. I’m taking the Chargers to win and send the Broncos to the playoffs.

Seattle at Arizona Line: -3.0
The Cardinals season fell short, the Seahawks season fell short. I guess 7-9 wasn’t going to do it this year (as it did last year.) So now both these teams are out and this game is just for shits and giggles. It is the difference between a losing and winning season though, so they’ll be out there, playing hard or whatever. Who cares? I can’t find myself every caring about these teams. Um, Seahawks to win.

Dallas at NY Giants Line: -2.5
This game is awesome. I love that it’s the last game of the season, I love that neither of these half ass teams have made the playoffs yet and it comes down to this. I love that Romo has a hurt hand. I love that Eli can look amazing one week, then throw four interceptions the next. I love that the Eagles dominated both these teams yet will not win the division or get into the playoffs. Two weeks ago (I think) I predicted that the Giants would beat the Cowboys in Dallas (they did) and the Cowboys will win in New York. So, Cowboys to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Doesn't matter who wins. They'll lose to the Packers anyway.

Only four weeks left in the NFL season. The first of many tears has already started to fall from my baby blue eyes. Not just because the NFL is going to be done soon, but because I have to put up with constant NBA highlights. I was really hoping that the NBA would not be coming back, but it is. At least there is hockey and baseball starts in April. I’m thinking too far ahead. For now, we still have four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs to get through. Which means I have a column of picks to write.

Last week I didn’t do fabulous, but it was a positive week. I’m 63% on the season, which is pretty good but not as good as I want. Time to buck up and really think about these picks. Or not think about these picks. I doubt all the people at work who do better than me on their picks every other week really do much analysis. Maybe I over analyze. I have no idea. That takes too much thought to determine if I’m applying too much thought.

In more personal news, I’m currently looking for strong freelance or even part-time(ish) for hire gigs. Writing, editing, content producing, whatever. So you have a need or know someone who does, please have them contact me. That was a link. Directly to email. That’s how I roll. I’m open to anything, anywhere, any bat channel, any bat time. Enough of that, on with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at Dallas Line: -3.5
The 6-6 Giants roll in to face the 7-5 Cowboys in their first meeting this season (can you believe that?) The table for this dinner isn’t set yet, since they still have to play again in week 17. Basically it’s like this, the winner of this series is the one that makes the playoffs from this division. I’m guessing both of these teams finish 10-6. Which means what for this prediction? It means that the Giants win this week and Dallas wins the next match-up in New York? I guess that’s what it means. Which means divisional record is the tie breaker. At the beginning of the season I picked the Cowboys to win the division, and I’m sticking with that. However, I think they way the Giants played against the Packers and all season is much more impressive than the Cowboys. To this point, and this week – the Giants win. Needless to say, I’ll probably be picking the Cowboys in week 17. Giants on the road by a field goal or less.

 

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: -14.0
For some reason I picked Cleveland last week. As a lifelong Browns fan I should have known better that even at home, they weren’t going to beat their former incarnation in the Ravens. Instead, they got pistol whipped like they were wandering the streets of Cincinnati. The Ravens worked them in every aspect of the game, there were no bright points. It was sad. It’ll be even sadder this week as they visit Pittsburgh. Traditionally, the Steeler vs. Browns match-up is a good game, but there is so much disparity between these two teams over the last couple years that there is no doubt that the Steelers will dominate the Browns. After watching the Steelers run, pass and score at will against the Bengals last week, the Browns don’t stand a chance. Steelers at home.

Houston at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Texans are continuously overcoming serious injuries to keep in the game for the playoffs. They have the Titans to watch for, at only two games behind, but they are playing pretty well considering. Yates isn’t terrible and held it together after Johnson was sidelined again this season. The victory over the Falcons was a win for the defense as well, missing Mario Williams. In a year this defense (overall) went from 30th to second. Good job Wade Phillips. The Bengals, while still looking average on both sides of the ball, couldn’t get past the true division test in the Steelers and Ravens. They’ll miss the playoffs. But the Dalton to Green connection is getting exciting to watch. I’m down with that for the future. I think Houston rolls in this week and pulls off a mild upset to secure their spot in the playoffs. Houston on the road.

Minnesota at Detroit Line: -0.0
The downfall of the Lions has almost been as exciting to watch as their surprise start to the season. Schwartz doesn’t seem to care that his team (even without Suh) is committing penalty after penalty, a lot of them in the area of personal fouls. Morons. Their drubbing by the Saints knocked them off the shelf of elite teams for good this season. They really can’t turn it around. The Saints showed that simple double coverage on Megatron really mucks up the offense. Minnesota has a competent defense and I think they can do the same. Losing last week to the Denver Tebows was tough, but the offense turned the ball over at some crucial moments. This should be an interesting game, and I think that if Detroit keeps up it’s penalty ridden ways, the Vikings win this game. Otherwise the Lions win. Do I have to pick a winner with a zero line? Fine. Detroit at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee Line: +4.0
The Titans aren’t out the playoff hunt yet, but they are hoping they continue to be underestimated. Now that CJ2K is finally finding the holes to punch through, they have stepped up their game a notch. 153 yards and two TD’s against Buffalo, and a week before also racking up huge yards it’s undeniable that Johnson is back. Hasselbeck is playing better, finding targets but still managing to throw it to the defense every once in a while. Finding those holes against the Saints defense might prove to be difficult, and they’ll need to if they hope to keep up with the offense. I’m taking the Saints in this game just cause they are the much better team, but I expect the Titans to make it interesting.

Philadelphia at Miami Line: -3.0
Aside from the Lions the other most exciting collapse to watch is that of the Eagles. McCoy is having a great season on the ground, but it doesn’t matter. Vince Young throws interception after interception and Vick can never get the game moving like he promised. It’s a disaster in Philly. Will Andy Reid be out of a job at the end of the season even considering his winning history with the team? Vick was a mistake. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, previously undrafted, will have every right to ask for a nice new contract at the end of the season, regardless of the coach. Assuming he keeps winning. They could finish 8-8, which considering their start would be great for the Dolphins. Reggie Bush has found new life in Miami and I think the Philly defense doesn’t put the brakes on the Dolphins winning ways. Fins to win at home.

Kansas City at NY Jets Line: -9.0
A 38 yard hail mary mixed in with terrible offense, terrible defense and a non-existent running game created a win. An improbable win, but a win and a loss for the Bears. The Chiefs are treading water, with no chance at a winning season and just a sad, sad year. The Jets shouldn’t have a problem with the visiting team this week, since unlike the Bears their team is more than just two guys. Of course, the Jets are the kings of week to week inconsistency on defense and offense, but if even one of those sides sparks just a bit, the win should come easy. Jets to win at home.

New England at Washington Line: +9.0
The difference between the Packers defense and the Patriots defense is turnover margin. While both allow a good chunk of scoring, the Packers defense forces a lot of turnovers that result, either directly or indirectly (in the hands of the offense) in points. The Patriots defense is horrid, making the Colts look moderately good in the passing game last week. This is going to cost them in the playoffs, when they have to face teams like the Ravens or Steelers that can easily take advantage of those defensive holes. I think even Washington this week takes advantage and keeps the game close. while they lost their shoes to the Jets, for the first half of the game they looked like they were in it. Obviously, Patriots to win these week, but they don’t make it look easy.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +3.0
Cam Newton, rookie of the year? That’s the consideration, though wouldn’t the biggest an impact a player could have on a team be winning? He’s doing a little bit of that, but the best that the Panthers can hope for is a third place finish in the division. The future looks bright for this team and if they can beat Atlanta this week, perhaps the immediate future will look real bright. The Falcons lost against Houston with the inability to run against that defense and a late penalty killed the tying drive. The Panthers don’t have that strong of a defense, and while they whipped up on the Bucs last week, that was the Bucs. Look for the Panthers to come out on all cylinders, but the Falcons to prevail late or in overtime. Falcons to win.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Chance are that wherever you are in the country this game will be blacked out, thank your lucky stars for that. The Jaguars seemed like they could get something together after inexplicably beating the Ravens but never did. Getting whupped by the Chargers on Monday night was just another nail in the coffin for Del Rio. What? Del Rio is already gone? Oh. Yeah. MJD will run all over the Bucs. This is the point in the season where it gets hard to pick game cause the match-ups are either too good, or too shitty to care about. Let’s be analytical here though. The Bucs run defense, as Carolina proved, is shit. That’s the ONE highlight of the Jags. Jags to win at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore Line: -17.0
For a team that competed with the Patriots, a seventeen point line has got to be an insult right? Well, consider that while the Patriots have shitty pass defense, the Ravens have a superior pass and rush defense. Now that Flacco has finally learned to hand the ball to Ray Rice more often, the Ravens are looking unstoppable. I mean, at for the moment. The playoffs could be another issue altogether. The Colts, in their “suck for luck” campaign have some hope in Dan Orlovsky – just kidding. Remember him from the 0-16 Lions? Yeah, that’s probably some bad karma right there. I’d be surprised if Peyton is even on the Colts staff next year and not working the sideline with his brother as a QB coach or something. Ravens to win.

Chicago at Denver Line: -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I realize that this isn’t a true upset special, as the line favors the Broncos – but no one else does. Many of us who have man love for Tim Tebow are rooting for the Broncos, but the haters are just waiting for him to fail. If he makes it to the playoffs (and he will) they’ll be biting their lips waiting to see if he blows it. And if he does (he won’t) they’ll accuse him of not being clutch or whatever. The haters (including Elway) will find a way to bring Tebow down. But he won’t have any of it. It’s not about him, and he’s made that clear. Last week it was about him in the second half though, with 202 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He only rushed four times during the game. Surprised? The Bears will be too. John Fox has done an excellent job adjusting the offense to his QB’s strengths, rather than forcing him to learn a new system mid-season. Coach of the year for sure. Meanwhile, Martz as offensive coordinator for the Bears has done a shitty job adjusting anything for the constantly struggling Caleb Hanie. His “west coast” offense is not eay for a rookie to pick up, much less mid-season. Perhaps Cutler comes back this game, perhaps not but with Forte out for the season most likely – the Bears are done. Doesn’t matter, I was going to pick the Broncos no matter what. Broncos at home.

San Francisco at Arizona Line: +4.0
With a month to go in the season, the Niners have already locked up the division, even though technically Arizona and the Seahawks are in the wild-card hunt (is the NFC that bad this year?) That being said, while Arizona pulled off an improbable victory against the Cowboys, attempting to do that against the Niners is going to be a bit more difficult. The Niners defense is tighter than a… I’ll leave that metaphor to your imagination. The Cardinals won by finding the glaring holes in the Cowboys run defense and because Romo sucks. The Niners keep winning on great defense and killer passing from young Alex Smith who is on his way to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Niners to win.

Oakland at Green Bay Line: -11.5
Meh. The Packers might toy with the Raiders for a little while, letting them score some points. The defense might give up some points, but they can score too. The Raiders have been decimated with injuries and penalties. That ass kicking they took at the hands of the Dolphins also helped them lose their standing in the division. They aren’t out of it yet, but they are this week. The Packers are unstoppable, especially by an inferior team like the Raiders. Should be fun for Palmer, just cause he gets to meet Rodgers, the QB that Palmer could have been had he been just a tad better. Packers to win.

Buffalo at San Diego Line: -7.0
What to say about the Bills? I think the loss of Fred Jackson hurt this team more than previously assumed. Spiller has been carrying the load, and doing alright, but the offense hasn’t been the same. Not to mention the defense suddenly giving up big plays late in the game. Last week against the Titans they gave up tons of yards to CJ2K and while the Chargers don’t have explosive a runner, Tolbert isn’t terrible in the backfield. The question for the Chargers is the consistency, something that hasn’t been there. Breaking a six game losing streak the Chargers now absolutely have to win to think about breaking even for the season. I’m taking the Bills in this game just because I don’t think the Chargers are for real this season. I could be wrong, because the Chargers have “charged” up late in the season in previous seasons, only to fall short come the playoffs. But those charges were contingent on the Broncos losing, which I don’t think they are going to do. Bills to somehow prevail on the road.

St. Louis at Seattle Line: -0.0
Meh. The Rams are nothing short of terrible, and the Seahawks somehow still have a chance at making the playoffs. They beat the Eagles, but so what? The Rams shouldn’t be much of a challenge, but who knows with this team? Taking the home team cause it’s easy. Seahawks at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 13

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Tebowing. All the kids are doing it.

How was your Thanksgiving? Did the themed post last week do you right? I sure hope so. I went a mildly exciting 11-5 in my picks last week. That brings me to 64% on the season, so that’s not too shabby. Another couple good weeks and I could easily be up around 67%. That’s important to me. Well, now that we are at Week 13, some of my playoff predictions are looking like they are coming true, some other ones are looking like complete busts. I do what I can.

So once again, the big talk this week is about Tim Tebow winning another game, this time against the struggling Chargers. How is Norv Turner still a coach in the NFL? The guy is terrible. The Denver defense has to be given full credit for giving Tebow the opportunity (several times) to win the game. I don’t think it’s just a matter of “stepping up,” I think that these guys, Von Miller and crew, are just getting that much better. With the defense performing as it is, and Tebow being Tebow and coach Fox running with it, it would not surprise me if the Broncos steal the division from the Raiders.

This is the part of the season where it gets really hard to make accurate picks, mostly because there are teams I WANT to win so other teams miss the playoffs. This causes me, and many other pundits, to make mistakes with the picks and over analyze things. Whatever. I picked Miami to beat the Cowboys last week. They lost by one fucking point. But had they won, I would have looked like a freaking genius. Now you see why I can’t pick against Tim Tebow the rest of the year, the same reason why his haters can’t stop hating. They are worried that if they do, their hate will be proven right after they’ve switched sides.

Featured Game

Denver at Minnesota Line: -1.0
What can I say? Tebow is the real deal. I pointed out last week that his stats were better than Elway in his first eight games. He plays on Sunday, yet the haters still line up to bring him down. The guy plays for his team, and as proven by a recent locker room speech, is an inspiration. In fact, I just made my own Tebow to sit on my desk and inspire me all day long. He’s humble, hard working and giving. In every interview he credits his team for the wins, rather than himself, and that’s true. The defense has stepped up lately, notching them another win. So now they travel to face the Vikings, who are doing horribly under another rookie QB, but one that is getting the accolades that Tebow isn’t because he’s a better passer – but he’s losing! Ponder isn’t terrible, and he’s developing a rythm with his receivers, but it’s not enough. And with Peterson injured (he’s best to stay injured to avoid risking further injury) the Vikings are done. Their defense can still stand up, but that’s not enough, not against the Tebow magic. I can’t pick against him at this point. Whatever it is, he’s got it. Broncos to win on the road.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Philadelphia at Seattle Line: +2.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Eagles are done. Put a fork in them. Andy Reid will be out of a job next year and whomever gave that huge contract to Vick should be shot in the thigh. Vince Young has been under center the last two games, and while he hasn’t been doing terrible, it hasn’t been enough. Getting torn apart by the Patriots last week didn’t help. The Seahawks suffered a similar fate, simply rolling over on defense and playing like a limp rag. This team has just given up, and that was evident on the offensive side of the ball. No running game, absolutely no deep passing game either. Thankfully, this match-up means nothing and it’s on Thursday night, so I don’t even have to watch it. Eagles to win by a narrow margin. Though I want to pick the Hawks, just so the Eagles sink further.

Tennessee at Buffalo Line: -1.5
The Titans are not out of it yet. They still have a slight chance to keep winning and beat out Houston, provided the Texans lose a few games. I don’t think that is going to happen though. The Titans played a terrible game last week with tons of turnovers and sloppy play by Hasselbeck. I don’t think he does good in the weather. They gave the Bucs every chance to win. I really think they should give Jake Locker the ball for the rest of the season, especially this week out in the cold at Buffalo. The Bills are off to a disappointing finish, all but eliminated from the playoffs after a hot start. Winning against the Jets would have helped, but one stupid penalty and two dropped TD passes by Stevie Johnson (elite receiver you are not) gave the Jets time to come back and win. However, I still think the Bills are a good team, they just need to get their shit together. They win this week at home against the Titans.

Kansas City at Chicago Line: -7.5
This is the part of the season where I don’t feel that a 3000 word column is necessary for some of these teams. Like the Chiefs. Clearly, they are not where they want to be this year with Cassel injured and Palko at the helm. However, the rest of the team hasn’t exactly stepped up, until last week. The defense held the Steelers to a mere 16 points. That’s pretty good. Sadly, some pussy ass play calling (kicking a field goal from the Steelers 22 yard line) kept the Chiefs down. They know they are done, but the NFL won’t let them just roll over and die. Speaking about rolling over and dying, are the Bears done? Hopefully Cutler tapes up his finger and gets back in there, cause Hanie seems to enjoy throwing to the wrong team. Turnovers killed the Bears last week against the Raiders, but their defense did what it could, keeping the Raiders kicking field goals. This week, they get a respite though. Bears at home.

Oakland at Miami Line: -3.0
The Raiders are one game, one measly little game ahead of the Broncos for the AFC West. Can they hold out and take the division? Their performance against the struggling Bears was no indicator. Once in the redzone, the offense was lethargic at best. Their defense kept the Bears in the game, giving up just enough. It wasn’t a dominating performance. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had a strong showing against the much superior Cowboys but left Romo too much time at the end to drive for a game winning field goal. The Dolphins lost by one point, but the defense was strong, intercepting Romo twice. Miami is favored in this game, and I don’t think it’s too wild to suggest that they will in fact, win it. Miami at home.

Indianapolis at New England Line: -21.0
Yeah, Patriots by a bunch. Upset special! Just kidding. This classic annual match-up has no steam this year. It’s Painter vs. Brady in a showdown that will resemble Rocky vs. a hanging side of beef. The beef is gonna get tenderized. If you have any Patriots players on your fantasy team, even second stringers, play them. Some might hope that the Colts put up a fight, try to look strong but as proven last week against Carolina, they are just done. Suck for Luck right? Pats at home.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Line: -7.0
Last time the Bengals met the Steelers it was on their turf and guess what? They lost. They roll in after (get this) a tough win at home against the Browns. Dalton looked good, but the Browns played them tough and almost pulled off the upset, riding a tie until the last seconds. The Bengals are a surprisingly winning team, but they have benefited from not playing the Steelers or Ravens until the end of the year. Which is what is happening now. The Steelers played a tough game against the hapless Chiefs and (get this) barely won. They did though, and that’s all that matters. Expect more of the same in this game, Ben being shoved to the ground plenty, dusting off and throwing a TD to Wallace. Steelers are still too tough overall for the Bengals. The Bengals best bet is to run the ball right at the front line, who haven’t been the best against the run this year. AJ Green does have that star factor that can change a game, but I think the Steelers win out in the end. Steelers at home.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Line: -3.0
I was laughing out loud at the way the Bucs performed last week. One second, they were causing turnovers, the next they were turning the ball over. It was disgusting and laughable. Which is why I was laughing. Bucs fans have got to be frustrated with the way this team is performing, they have so many good weapons and a young defense (save for Barber,) they should be firing on all cylinders and competing with the Falcons and the Saints for the division. But they aren’t. At the beginning of the season I predicted them to make the playoffs. I’d like to amend that, and say the Panthers, who whupped up on the Colts last week, will finish ahead of the Bucs – placing them dead last. Which means the Bucs will lose the rest of their games and the Panthers won’t. Starts right here. Strong offense from Cam Newton (I would say Rookie MVP, but he’s not winning and Tebow is) will take this one from the Bucs, who won’t be able to keep up or stop the run. Panthers to win on the road.

NY Jets at Washington Line: +3.0
The Jets are still in the hunt for the playoffs after sneaking past the Bills last week, who had every opportunity to win that game. But they didn’t and now the Jets really need to get their shit together and win. They can do that at Washington if they can keep Helu in check and not piss off Grossman. Did you see him against the Seahawks last week? They challenged his shit and he drove right back down the field and made the Seahawks defense look the fool. I didn’t see that coming. Grossman can be good when he wants. The Jets defense, once the most glorious in the league is getting beat on the corners, which is odd cause that’s where their best defensive guys are. The secondary steps up, the Jets win easy. Jets to win on the road.

Atlanta at Houston Line: +3.0
Either Atlanta was toying with the vikings last week or they really did have some problems in the secondary. While the score wasn’t close in the end, and the Falcons had a great goal line stand, they allowed the Vikings to stage a comeback with some deep passing. Thankfully, the Texans are down to their third string QB in Yates and have Kellen Clemens waiting just in case Yates gets injured too. This team can’t catch a break. First Johnson, then Foster, now Schaub and Leinart. Good news for Houston, the Colts still suck. They still have the Titans nipping at their heels though. I think Atlanta takes this game just cause Matt Ryan plays like Aaron Rodgers when he’s in air conditioning. Falcons on the road, but Houston is not out of it yet.

Baltimore at Cleveland Line: +7.0 UPSET SPECIAL??
I haven’t picked an upset special yet. Could this be it? The Browns came out fighting last week against the Bengals and actually looked like they could have won, and should have. But they didn’t, losing another close game and sending the happy Bengals to Pittsburgh to lose this week. The Ravens and the Steelers are going to end up having an all out brawl for the playoffs, and the Browns are that little bug that’s in the way. They have a real chance to play spoiler right now, and I really, really want to pick them. I was just about to talk myself out of doing so, but the Ravens lost to the freaking Seahawks. Sure, they won last week, beating the second best team in the NFC. So they are hot and cold. Is this a cold week? Obviously I’m trying to talk myself into picking the Browns as this weeks upset special. Ugh. Yes, I’m picking the Browns to upset. I’ll probably regret it, but I have to.

Green Bay at NY Giants Line: +7.5
The New York Football Giants got rocked by the Saints last week. Just absolutely destroyed. Both sides of the ball the Giants weren’t playing well, though there were some bright spots with the receivers. Cruz had another good game, but turnovers and a severe lack of defense kept them from keeping in the game. But hey, they beat the Patriots right? Can they play spoiler for Green Bay? I really don’t think so. The one thing that Green Bay needed work on was the defense, and they are getting a bit better, ready for the playoffs. Magic number is three (games to win or Niners to lose) to shore up home field advantage. Green Bay is too good for the Giants, but they Giants will hang in there. Packers to win on the road.

Dallas at Arizona Line: +4.5
The Cowboys, as I predicted at the beginning of the year, are going to win the NFC East. Mark my words, do whatever you have to do. They aren’t playing lights out football, and certainly had a battle against Miami, but they are winning and that’s all that matters. With the Giants sucking a big loss and facing Green Bay this week, the Cowboys have the chance to put more distance between them and the only other team that can compete in the division. That would be the Giants. The Cowboys are offensively strong and only on defense are they showing some weakness, oh, and Romo from time to time. Traveling to Arizona shouldn’t be much of an issue though, and the defense should be able to get plenty of practice against Skelton and crew. Note to the Cowboys special teams though – do not kick directly to Patrick Peterson. Dallas to win on the road.

St. Louis at San Francisco Line: -14.0
Rams suck. I mean, really suck. They might have more wins, but they make the Colts look like a good team. Too many mistakes, dropped passes, poor pass protection, no running game (with Stephen Jackson even!) Not to mention the defense and special teams. Ugh. Niners to win. Done.

Detroit at New Orleans Line: -9.0
With Suh suspended for two games (should be the rest of the season to teach that guy a lesson) the Detroit defense is taking another hit. As dirty as he is, he’s good and is a strong reason why that defense did well for a little while. Lately, they’ve been playing with more aggression than skill and after watching the Packers pick them apart, I have little faith that they’ll be able to stop the Saints offense. Too many weapons, too much time for Drew Brees and too many awesome coaches on crutches on the sidelines. Either way, I think it’s just about time to stick in a fork in Detroit. Saints at home easy.

San Diego at Jacksonville Line: +3.0
This is the Monday night game? I’d rather someone give me a Sandusky Special. Well, maybe not, but either way – this game is shit. The Chargers are on a very special losing streak because it could be the last for Norv Turner, who should have been fired 100 games ago. Meanwhile, the Jags pulled rookie Gabbart last week in favor of Luke McCown then finally fired Jack Del Rio, then sold the team and now might move. Turmoil indeed! This is a match-up that no-one gives a shit about, which is why it’s probably the most unpredictable. The Chargers HAVE to win in order to even think about the playoffs. The Jags could really give a shit at this point, which makes them dangerous. I don’t think the Chargers, traveling from coast to coast, will be able to stop the run. MJD and the Jags win at home on Monday night.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 12

Thursday, November 24th, 2011

"If you drop one more pass, no Pumpkin Pie for you!!"

Happy Thanksgiving football fans. Today, of course is the day we celebrate some religiously persecuted folks and their slow but deliberate destruction of the indigenous peoples on this continent. Or something like that. Frankly, the whole thing is a bit fuzzy. All I know is that we eat a lot of Turkey, fight with our families and get completely blitzed. Oh yeah, there is also football. Three games this year, and for the first time in a long time – they don’t suck. How about that?

There is a lot of parity in the NFL this year, which probably accounts for my 101-59 (63%) record on the year. Last week I managed to pull a 10-4 week, but plenty of people at work made me look the fool with their 12-2 picks. Whatever. This week we return to 16 games, bye weeks are finally completely over (I called them over in week 10, forgetting that there were byes in week 11.) There are so many teams at 6-4 and 5-5 that it’s hard to get a good outlook for the playoffs. Teams like the Patriots could falter, while the Bills could wake the fuck up. What about the Lions? On a decline, they bounced back last week against the Panthers. You still in their camp?

Since it’s Thanksgiving, I’m going to theme todays post, just cause I can. Since this is the most awesome NFL column on the entire internets (besides TMQ) I can do that. On a side note, I’m selling some original Xbox games. Someone buy them. On another side note, I’m not making any picks this week. Instead, I’m cooking a delicious Thanksgiving dinner, 16 different and tasty dishes, laid out on the table for you to enjoy. So grab a fork, grab some peppermint schnapps and a glass of cheap ass wine. It’s time for Thanksgiving dinner!

Turkey (White Meat)

Green Bay at Detroit Line: +7.0
The undefeated Packers roll into Motown to face off with the faltering Lions. At one point, I had predicted that both these teams would be undefeated going into this game. Wouldn’t that have been something? Well, the Lions instead decided to start losing games through interceptions and terrible penalties. Last week they seemed to turn around in the second half and scoring enough points to beat the scrappy Panthers. This week however they face off against the best offense in the league. Sure, they’ll score some points and probably early, but I don’t see them ever holding a lead or winning the game. However, this is going to be a great game on the offensive side of the ball for sure. If Stafford makes the mistakes he made last week though, expect the Packers to really run away with the game. That defense, while allowing a lot of points, is unforgiving when it comes to taking advantage of turnovers. Packers to win on the road.

Honey Baked Ham

San Francisco at Baltimore Line: -4.5
A win here would be so freaking sweet for the Niners. They are headed directly for the playoffs and an East coast win against a tough team would solidify that quest. Of course, they’ve already beaten the Lions, so they’ve had a tough test. The Ravens present a different test though, but I’m not sure what it is. The Ravens run defense has been suspect of late, and the Niners run game is the best in the league. The evolution of Crabtree and Alex Smith into a dynamic duo has been fun to watch. This game also features the match-up of Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh. Which brother will win? I think it’ll once again (for the Ravens) come down to the offense, which has sputtered lately. They came alive against the Bengals just long enough to put the game away, but fought the whole time. The Niners are much better than the Bengals and this is put up or shut up time. I think the Niners put up. Niners to win on the road. Sweet.

Mashed Potatoes

Miami at Dallas Line: -7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
As if Thanksgiving day isn’t interesting enough with the other two games, this one is mashed right in the middle. A buttery and delicious pairing that four weeks ago we wouldn’t have given one blink about. However, the Dolphins are on a three game tear, and they are looking good doing it. Last week they plastered the Bills, while the Cowboys had to take their drama to overtime to beat the Redskins. Romo looked like he does on paper and played a good game, but the defense let the Redskins stay in the game. Matt Moore is out for some revenge against the team that drafted and waived him, but I also said the Bills would revenge against the Cowboys and they got pistol whipped. The Dolphins are playing solid defense, and this is their chance to prove that they aren’t sucking for Luck. Matt Moore could do well to land himself a starting job. So I’m taking the Dolphins to mash the Cowboys, if only by a small margin. Dolphins to upset on the road.

Turkey (Dark Meat)

Chicago at Oakland, 4:05 Line: -4.5
Do no underestimate the Raiders. While they are still back and forth on defense, they are in no way a team that should be overlooked. And yeah, a 6-5 record and the Broncos biting at their heels isn’t indicative of a full playoff ready run. The offense is starting to seriously click with Carson Palmer (go figure.) Bad news for the Bears, Jay Cutler is out, probably for the rest of the season. So backup Caleb Hanie is ready to take over the reigns. But wait, what’s this? There are reports that the Bears are looking at newly release Kyle Orton. That is not a vote of confidence in the young Hanie. In fact, it’s a bit of an insult to both Hanie and Cutler. Even though Orton has a history with the Bears, it’s too late to bring in a new QB. Hanie knows the system. We’ll see how he does against the Raiders I suppose. Plus, there are other teams higher on the waiver wire that will get first crack at Orton. More on that in a second. This game is going to be a dark, violent, evil affair down there in the pit of the Colosseum. I’m taking the Raiders to prevail in the darkness.

Stuffing

New York at New Orleans Line: -7.0
Here’s a game that really matters this week. Both teams playoff hopes are hanging in the balance and they desperately need a win to push them towards the top. The Giants looked weird last week, taking a loss off a late fumble by Eli Manning. Not sure how he didn’t see that coming. An off week for the Saints should breathe new life into an offense that hasn’t been as explosive this year as it has been in previous years. Don’t get me wrong, it’s been good just not crazy good. The Giants pass rush and run defense is going to be the key here, which means Manning needs to sustain drives to give his defense a proper rest. I think he’ll have trouble doing that. I’m taking the Saints to win at home.

Gravy

New England at Philadelphia Line: +3.0
Every meal on Thanksgiving needs a big pile of brown slop to pour on top right? For me, the gravy is the slow decline of the Eagles season after Vick got a huge contract. Yeah, they got some new life last week and Vince Young was able to pull of an improbable win that he probably shouldn’t have. However, who cares? This is about the mega love the media (save for yours truly) gave the Eagles and Vick. I’m glad they suck, cause I love being right and I haven’t liked this team from the start. Yes, McCoy is having a killer season, and he’s going to run at will against the Patriots, who prefer to allow as many points as humanly possible before scoring more points than the other team. The gravy is when the Eagles lose this game and are put away for good, way out of contention for the playoffs and then the media can shut the fuck up about this team. Patriots to win.

Giblets

Cleveland at Cincinnati Line: -7.5
Gah. Who cares? The Browns suck! My Dawgs did everything they could to lose that game last week, but still won thanks to terrible play calling by Jack Del Rio and the Jags. They should have lost, they deserved to lose and keep getting minor accolades for winning. The defense has sparks of greatness and can certainly contain the run, but Haden has as many penalty yards as great plays. He’s young and makes mistakes. The running game has been crap since Hillis went out with his mystery hammy injury, though Obyganna (whatever) hasn’t been half bad. The Bengals meanwhile came real close to beating the Ravens last week and where Ponder is a good rookie who loses and Tebow is a terrible rookie who wins, Dalton is a good rookie who wins. He makes smart decisions, accurate passes and only the loss of AJ Green last week (in my estimation) kept the Bengals from winning the game. Dalton needs that deep threat. This week though, all he would need is a dog who can catch a football. Bengals to win.3

Canned Cranberry Sauce

Minnesota at Atlanta Line: -9.5
Where Tebow has his constant detractors while he is winning games, Ponder seems to have nothing but love and good happy feelings as he’s losing games. Why? Cause he’s not spouting Jesus love in the locker room after games? Or because he’s a more accurate passer? Either way, he’s still making plenty of rookie mistakes and the defense is doing all they can to keep games close. The Vikings should have beaten the Raiders last week, but didn’t. They just couldn’t keep Ponder from making some crucial errors, but hey, he’s a rookie right? Bullshit. This week they go dome to dome to play the Falcons, who had a tough go of it last week, but seemed in control the whole game. The Falcons need every win they can get if they want to beat out the Saints for the NFC South crown. I don’t think the Vikings will get in their way too much, unless Ponder suddenly turns into not a rookie. Falcons to win at home.

Candied Yams

Carolina at Indianapolis Line: +4.0
At first I was like, “hmm, the Colts need to win one game this season right? This could be the one. Coming in after a bye week, they could be raring to go.” Then I remembered that they truly do suck major balls. The Panthers are playing well, and in the rookie QB conversation Cam Newton is right there at the top. But some serious defensive woes and his offensive line keeping him on the run have kept this team from reaching their true potential. Against the Colts though, they are going to look like gods. The Colts have failed to slow down any runners this season, so I expect Cam and Jonathan Stewart to put up huge rushing yards against the Colts. Hell, they can just run the whole game and suck up time. At least that half of the game will be fun to watch. Panthers to win on the road.

Green Beans

Houston at Jacksonville Line: +3.5
Just so you know, this is the last game I’m writing about this week. Yeah, some kind of order right? For the first time in, well, ever the Texans are all but assured a playoff berth at the top of the division. But they have to keep up their winning ways and hope they don’t falter with Leinart at the helm. We all thought they would when Andre Johnson went out, they didn’t. When Arian Foster was out for a while, we thought they were dead in the water again, but Tate stepped up. I think this is a well coached team that has a solid chance at winning in the first round. So this week, Leinart gets a moderately easy refresher with the Jags. They lost to the Browns last week. The Browns! They suck. Texans to win.

Cornbread

Washington at Seattle Line: -4.5
The Seahawks beat the Ravens. Do you remember that? While they have no chance at the playoffs, they followed that up with a whipping of the Rams. On the other side of the ball, the Redskins can’t decide who they want to hold the ball under center. That, and the fact that Shanahan still likes making dumb ass time management decisions and challenges ultimately dooms this team. Grossman played well against the Cowboys, but once again their secondary was almost nonexistent, letting Romo do whatever he wanted. Yeah, the Seahawks don’t have that kind of offense, but they do have a consistent running game and a strong run defense. I think they shut down the Redskins offense, who certainly don’t travel well, and win at home. That’s what I think.

Tossed Salad

Buffalo at NY Jets Line: -8.5
The 5-5 Bills, who have been losing like a bunch of chumps lately ride into New York (New Jersey) to meet the 5-5 Jets who have been losing like a bunch of chumps lately. There is nothing spectacular about this game. It’s a toss up as to who is going to play just good enough to win. Where the Jets defense was once undefeatable, the Bills offense was just as strong. Now, they both are looking lethargic as Sanchez and Fitzpatrick are proving they are not elite quarterbacks and probably never will be. Thanks to some clever negotiating, Fitzpatrick has his huge contract, then he started losing. The Jets running game is hurting, and the Bills running game isn’t looking any better with Jackson out this week. So that kills the play action and leaves it on the offensive lines to protect long enough for passing. I think the Bills still have a better receiver core, and will win the passing game. For that reason, I’m taking the Bills to win by a slight margin, but really, this game could go either way.

Pumpkin Pie

Denver at San Diego Line: -7.0
The 5-5 Denver Tebows now get a solid challenge in division rival (and also 5-5) NOrv Turner led Chargers. Of course, Norv (how does he still have a job) Turner is only getting worse as time goes on. It’s like the guy never looks at the clock. His management, coaching, of his team is getting worse. No wonder they look like they don’t want to be there. The Chargers are in a sad state of affairs these days, because they have the talent but the drive seems to be missing. Rivers is a good quarterback at heart, but he makes too many mistakes under Norv’s system. So what about the Broncos? Well, they just released Orton, pretty much saying they are putting their money behind Tebow. Elway isn’t sold, which is kind of douchey because Tebow has better stats in his first eight games than Elway had (see below inforgraphic.) No matter what you or Jake Plummer think about the guy, he’s a winner. As Tebow super fan @mbletschtold me about this game, “If he wins, I bet you Norv Turner gets fired. TEBOW!!” I’m Tebowing all over the place these days. Whipped cream baby, just not on any chicks breasts. Tebow won’t have any of that. Broncos to win on the road.

Uh, shut the hell up Elway.

Pecan Pie

Pittsburgh at Kansas City Line: +10.5
Really though, when it comes down to it there is nothing we like more in football more than a nice old fashioned ass whipping. And here’s your ass whipping game this week. The Chiefs are floundering. Cassel is done for the season, nice waste of money there. And you want to talk about inaccurate passing? Take a look at freaking Palko. He threw three interceptions last week, and yeah, it was against the Patriots but who cares? He missed many passes, especially down the sideline. It wasn’t all about lack of protection either, the kid just isn’t ready for the big show. Against the Steelers? He’s got to be shitting in his goddamn boots. The Steelers will crush the Chiefs this weekend, into a substance resembling the gooey center of a pecan pie. Steelers to win.

Collard Greens

Tampa Bay at Tennessee Line: -3.5
If I’m not mistaken (as I often am) Chris Johnson averaged like 1.1 yards a carry last game, really stinking up the joint. Kind of a disgrace after that huge contract he was given for the last couple of years. Consider that back pay buddy. Last week, Hasselbeck was out and Jake Locker came in and almost brought the Titans back against a tougher Falcons team. He’s about to get into the conversation about rookie QB’s. I’m not sure who is playing this weekend, though it looks like Hasselbeck will get the start. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think Locker is going to be a great quarterback. The kid is damn good and I think the Titans should just go ahead and play him this weekend, let him learn the system and get some experience. Hasselbeck is gone next year, probably retired and the Titans aren’t making the playoffs this year (though not mathematically out.) Either way, the Bucs are too inconsistent on both sides of the ball this year to really be much of a threat to anyone – save for the Packers. What happened last week was just the Packer defense challenging the offense by letting the Bucs think they had a chance. They didn’t. Titans to win at home.

Leftovers

Arizona at St. Louis Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Oh shit, there’s another game this week. I almost forgot this match-up because pretty much everyone in the NFL universe couldn’t give a shit about this game. Both teams are playing like shit, both teams have no chance at a winning record and both teams make the other one look that much better. Do you think the Rams can manage to protect Bradford long enough to complete a pass? How about that Skelton guy? He’s making Kolb look better day by day and vice versa. No microwave in the world could heat up this mess to make it look appetizing. Just throw out the paper plates and order a pizza. Rams to win at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 11

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

My picks last week were like Vick's ribs

So last week, sucked. Let’s not talk about last week. It makes me very, very sad. Like super sad. Like mega super ultra sad. Let me just say this, I have never had a week as bad as last week. I’m tracking stats, so I’ll look at them next week. Until that point, I’m going to go soak my head. I’m supposed to be an expert right? Apparently not. So, that has kind of made me a little crazy. This week, I’m going off the deep end with my picks.

In other news, right now it’s around 6am pacific time as I’m writing this. The only reason that is significant is that I’m in Los Angeles attending the L.A. Auto Show. I wasn’t sure if there was even going to be a column this week, due to my schedule. But I can’t let my biggest fan @mbletsch down. So, I have about an hour to write this, so I’m going to knock down the normal 3000 word column and do the quick version. Each game will still be represented, my analysis is just going to be a bit more brief. So, let’s get it on! I’m getting hungry for some trendy breakfast.

Featured Game

Philadelphia at NY Giants Line: -3.5
This game is featured cause this is where the Eagles disappear. This where Sportscenter stops talking about the mathematical posibility of the Eagles making the playoffs. It’s not going to happen. They are going to lose this game, with Vince Young stepping in for a rib broken Mike Vick, and they are going to fade into obscurity. Good bye Eagles. Fuck off. Giants to win.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

NY Jets at Denver Line: +5.5
Vegas has taken out an over/under on Tebows completions at 11. I’m taking the over. He’s going to have to pass against the Jets. Their mega blitz is going to push him out of the box like crazy. That being said, the Broncos have the magic of Tebow and for that reason, and that reason alone I’m taking them to win at home. Yep.

Jacksonville at Cleveland Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Who cares? The Jags beat the Colts last week because Painter sucks. The Browns missed a game winning field goal because of the fucking long snapper. You have ONE job dude, and you messed it up. Go sell used cars. Browns to win at home.

Carolina at Detroit Line: -7.0
Detroit has lost three of the last four. What is going on with this team? They are falling fast, but they return home to that very loud crowd. Let’s see if Cam Newton can fight off the noise of the crowd, and the toughest defense he’s faced yet. However, that defense has been shit lately. I’m sticking with the Lions to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay Line: -14.0
Ha. This line is too generous. If the Bucs don’t lose by 35 points in Green Bay I’ll be surprised. I’m sure this young team would love to come back and get an upset win, but it’s not going to happen. Green Bay is your repeat Superbowl champion. I have no choice but to predict that happening. Green Bay to win at home.

Buffalo at Miami Line: -2.0
This match-up is one of my favorites every year. These two teams play each other like it’s a fucking playoff game. The rest of the year doesn’t matter when these rivals meet. While the Dolphins are on a hot streak right now, and the Bills are on a low streak they are meeting somewhere in the middle. I’m going off the diving board head first and picking the Dolphins to win. I have no idea why, just doing it.

Oakland at Minnesota Line: -1.0
Vikings aren’t looking too bad. I mean, they got smoked by the Packers last week, but they aren’t sucking it up really. Ponder is showing great progression as a starting QB. The Raiders, are winning their division but only by one game. The whole division behind them is tied. They have to win this game. They won’t. Peterson is going to slice them up. I’m taking the Vikings to win at home.

Dallas at Washington Line: +8.0
Did you see the Cowboys last week? They were dominant. Did you see the Redskins last week? Name their starting QB. Didn’t think so. Shanahan is losing it, his decision making suggests dementia. The Cowboys are going to make the Redskins home crowd all sad and shit. Cowboys to win.

Cincinnati at Baltimore Line: -9.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
The Ravens went to Seattle and lost. A week after beating the Steelers for the second time this year. Finally, they are back home after their stupid west coast trip and welcome the Bengals. The Bengals lost to the Steelers last week, knocking them back to reality. Can they hurdle the Ravens this week? I think this is the upset brewing. I think the Ravens offense is confused right now for some reason, and Dalton held it together against the Steelers, it wasn’t a blowout. It was a loss. I’m taking the Bengals to upset.

Seattle at St. Louis Line: -3.0
The Seahawks surprisingly beat the Ravens last week, and the Rams got lucky against the Browns. Who cares? The Niners seal up the division with a win today, finally ending the sadness of a losing team getting to the playoffs from the NFC West. For the rest of the year, these two teams are playing for second place, with no chance of smelling the ass crack of the playoffs. Who cares who wins this game? Whatever. I’m taking the Rams.

Arizona at San Francisco Line: -10.0
Meh. Niners to win and complete their amazing rise to power. Next stop, playoffs.

Tennessee at Atlanta Line: -6.5
The Oilers, er, Titans are the up and down, hot and cold team of the year. They had a great week last week, but who knows how they are going to be this week? The Falcons blew it in overtime to the Saints. You’ve gotta run some fucking misdirection on fourth and short plays! It was a good decision, just bad execution. I think the Falcons hold it together this week and rebound with a strong win, staying in the race for the NFC South. Falcons at home.

San Diego at Chicago Line: -4.0
The Chargers are the other hot and cold team. Actually, they are just cold. They are painful to watch, and I’m glad I’m not a Chargers fan. The good news is they are in a 3 way tie for second place in the division, so they still have a shot. They don’t have a shot against the Bears at home though, who have been dominating lately. That win against the Lions was fucking huge. HUGE. Bears to win at home.

Kansas City at New England Line: -14.5
Upset special… just kidding. The Patriots are looking more like the Patriots, but what the hell is up with the defense lately? They are making it harder for Brady and the offense. And he finally passed down the field to Ochocinco. You have to use that deep threat more often to open up the play action, just like using the run. Do it. Patriots to win.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Indianapolis
The Colts, ugh. Suck for Luck right?

Bye Week at New Orleans
The Saints still have some work to do if they want to win the division. They have to keep the Falcons at bay. Cause the wild card is not coming from this division. It’s going to be the Bears or the Lions.

Bye Week at Pittsburgh
The Steelers can’t coast to the division title this year. The Ravens and the Bengals are making it a fight. A fight worth watching. Like two hot chicks at a frat party fighting in the pool. Take it off! Take it off!

Bye Week at Houston
Everyone keeps saying that this is the year for Houston. Until Schaub got injured last week. Now, he’ll probably be out for the season. So can Houston keep winning? I think so, because it’s been the running game and the defense that has been winning games.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 10

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Can the magic Ginger & AJ Green beat the Steelers?

Let’s not bust any time this week. I have a busy schedule. Last week I added some gut picking to the picks. I’m dumping that. It was nice, but I actually ended up exactly the same, 8-6, as my thoughtful picks. I’m a little pissed off at my season total, 84-46 (65%) but it appears the goofballs at CBS Sports (where I frequently get my NFL news, I don’t know why) aren’t doing much better. So that’s nice. I feel a little bit better. I also feel okay because the games were so damn close last week, at least, the ones that I lost.

In other NFL news, the bye weeks are over. So that means two things. One, I’m back to picking sixteen full games. And two, it means that the Thursday night games start. I don’t like the Thursday night games because that means that’s one less game on NFLRedZone on Sunday. And I’m not staying up Thursday night to midnight to watch the game. Especially since I just got Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 and if I’m going to stay up, it’s going to be cause I’m getting my ass kicked by ten year olds online.

In other non NFL news, a happy belated birthday to my one female reader, Jennifer H. She just turned 30 or something. I don’t know. Either way, she’s older than her husband. Not a cougar, just a cradle robber. I mean, not now, but when they started dating. I think he was like 12 and she was 15 or something. Does that mean he’s got game or she doesn’t? I don’t know. Either way, happy birthday and feel free to name your pending baby after me or any NFL quarterback besides John Beck.

Featured Game

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
There are a lot of huge games this week, divisional match-ups and non divisional playoff type games. It was hard to choose which game to put up here in the top spot, but considering the Bengals position, it had to be them. They are the surprise lead in the AFC North, but have not played either the Ravens or the Steelers. This week, they welcome Pittsburgh to Ohio to finally take on the Steelers, which will be the real test of their mettle. The Steelers lost a squeaker to the Ravens (of which time management was again the enemy) after beating the Patriots. So what to think about them? We know they have a great defense, but the Bengals defense is also top three. Most of the experts are picking the Bengals to finally prove themselves, but they forget about that rookie QB at the helm. Yes, Dalton has played well so far, but he has not met a defense as good as his or as tough as the Steelers. It will be a bit of a shock. Dalton, I’d like you to meet James Harrison and the rest of the Steelers front D-line. Good luck. Steelers to win on the road and reset balance to the AFC North.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Oakland at San Diego Line: -7.0
Carson Palmer showed he’s still got the moves, throwing for over 300 yards and 3TD’s in his second start in Oakland. Don’t mind the 3 interceptions though. Or the fact that Oakland got beat hard by the Broncos defense. Who saw that coming? This week, they are hoping to get back to form against a struggling and confused Chargers team. Is this team from San Diego any good? Or is Rivers clearly still struggling under coach Norv Turner and his terrible time management and decision making skills? Rivers also threw 3 interceptions last week, 2 of them for touchdowns. Otherwise, he had a good game against a Green Bay defense that doesn’t seem to give a shit. I don’t expect him to pick apart the Oakland defense, as they generally play QB’s like Rivers a bit closer to the belt than guys like Tebow. Close game, but I’m taking the home team. Chargers to win.

New Orleans at Atlanta Line: -1.0
The killer divisional match-ups start right here in the dome in Atlanta. I’m going to say right now I’m leaning towards the Falcons. At home, Matt Ryan looks like a freaking god. They picked apart the Colts last week and only a pick six kept it from being a total shut-out. The Saints smacked around the lethargic Bucs, but clearly looking ahead to this game. The key of course is going to be whether or not Atlanta can shut down Darren Sproles amazing skills past the line of scrimmage. I’m going to say the holes in the Saints secondary will be enough for the Falcons to come out ahead. Falcons to win by a nose.

St. Louis at Cleveland Line: -3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
While there are tons of great games, there are also a few games like this. Will the Rams be able to compete after several weeks on the road and getting beat in overtime by a terrible Arizona team? Will the Browns, who have shown nothing on offense and whose defense is slowly getting worse be able to secure a much needed home win so their fans don’t finally desert them? It’s hard to say. What is easy to say is that both these teams are performing no where near their potentials and are right where they deserve to be. The Browns would benefit from only giving the ball to Josh Cribbs, since he’s the only competent offensive player on the team right now. Browns to barely win at home.

Buffalo at Dallas Line: -5.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
On paper this is a so-so game, but in reality this game could be a make it or break it game for both teams. Last week the Bills were smacked down to reality by a Jets defense that didn’t allow Fred Jackson to run hog wild the whole game. While the Cowboys defense won’t offer as much resistance, the Bills defense will have to worry about stopping the run of explosive rookie back DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys have some ground to cover if they want to climb up and compete with the Giants who are secretly running away with the division. With half the season behind them, now is the time. However, the Bills are not just going to lay down now. Last weeks loss should have woken them up, rather than set them down. They have to contend with the Patriots. Plus, after settling an old score with the Redskins, the Bills have the same score to settle with the team that beat them in two Superbowls. Bills to win on the road.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis Line: +3.0
Last year, this would have been an easy choice. You would have said, “Peyton, no question. Colts to win.” This week the Colts are coming off a serious drubbing at home by the Falcons, and have yet to pull a win this season. There is no way the team is intentionally losing, but they certainly look like they aren’t trying very hard. Have they given up already? If the opposing defense promises to only two hand touch Peyton can he come in and play? Poor Curtis Painter, he’ll never get another starting gig in the NFL unless he can make something happen this season, which means, get a fucking win. Could this be the week? The hot and cold Jaguars come to town after a bye week and previously beating the Ravens in a strange turn of defensive prowess. If they even have a little bit of that defense, the Colts shouldn’t be an issue. But I don’t think they Colts have a 0-16 season in them, not in the defense and not in the spirit of the team. This is win number one, if only their only win this season. Colts at home.

Denver at Kansas City Line: -3.5
Did you start Tim Tebow in fantasy football last week? Sure he only had a little over a hundred yards passing, but he had over a hundred rushing and two touchdowns. Finally the Denver coaching staff realized they can’t put a young and maturing Tebow in a traditional spread offense. Instead, they adapted to the college style read option which Tebow owned while he was at Florida. In this, and strong defense by the Broncos, he is now 2-1 as a starter. Say what you want about the guy, but he is more of a winner than a loser. So suffice it to say, the Chiefs will have watched some tape this week, if they have gotten over their sorry loss to the Dolphins. The Chiefs, after winning four in a row, quickly reverted back to how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Did they get too cocky? Ahead of themselves? The Broncos, mathematically, can still win this division. No matter how plucky the KC defense is, I think that the read option beats them. Denver Tebows to win. Yeah, I’m picking it. And starting him in fantasy.

Washington at Miami Line: -4.0
I think someone on the Miami staff reads this column. They must. The week I declare that I will no longer pick them to win, they roll into Kansas City and deliver a royal smack down. They looked like a playoff caliber team. Moore threw well, Bush looked like a rookie again and they dominated on defense. Where has this team been all season? I’d like to think I was the one who motivated them to this point. That’s probably not true, but whatever. Based soley on the performance of the Dolphins last week and the fact that the Redskins have about as much offense with John Beck as a high school flag football team, Dolphins to rack up their second win.

Arizona at Philadelphia Line: -0.0
You can stare at that line all you want, it’s not going to change. This is a zero line game and for good reason, both these teams have an overpriced quarterback who isn’t worth his salt. To add fuel to the fire, last week with Kolb out, Skelton came in and won the game. Ok, to be fair to the defense, Skelton didn’t do shit. A huge blocked field goal and an overtime pick-6 secured the win. That’s what did it. Kolb might miss another start against the team that might be wishing they’d have kept him on. Instead, they get to watch Vick throw interception after interception and get hit on almost every play. It’s hard to protect your QB if he’s no longer standing anywhere near you. Regardless, the Cardinals offense is almost nonexistent. Barely beating the Rams, who have been the recipients of blowouts this year, doesn’t bode well for them against a stronger defensive team like the Eagles. I hate to do it, but Eagles to win.

Houston at Tampa Bay Line: +3.0
The Texans are flexing their AFC South dominant muscles now. They’ve all but secured what turned out to be a pretty shitty division this year. Rolling into Tampa with probably the best running game tandem in Tate and Foster is pretty much an automatic win right? Right? Right. The Tampa Bay Sucs (can we go back to that now) have been my most inconsistently picked team this year. I think that’s cause I inexplicably went against the grain and actually decided they might be good this year even though I hate them. Fuck that logic. I’m right back to hating them, as only once have I picked them correctly, and that was last week against the Saints. No more of that noise. Plus, the Texans are too damn good right now and the Sucs Barber can’t be everywhere on the field, committing penalties. Texans to win on the road.

Tennessee at Carolina Line: -3.5
You know, any recent season, with the Panthers terrible run defense and the presence of Chris Johnson, one might be easily swayed to pick the Titans to win this game. This year? With the Panthers crappy run defense and Chris Johnson unable to rack up fifty yards a game, one might be tempted to pick the Panthers to win. Especially with the electric Cam Newton at QB. But, as Michael Vick is proving, being electric doesn’t mean shit if you don’t win games, and the Panthers do not have a winning record. Instead, they come off a bye and welcome the struggling Titans to town who looked mediocre at best last week against the Bengals and lost. This week, they’ll look mediocre at best against the Panthers, and lose. Panthers at home.

Baltimore at Seattle Line: +7.0
After a rough game against the Steelers, as everyone knew it was going to be, the Ravens get to travel all the way to the west coast to take on the Seahawks. Who put that shit in that order on the schedule? Either way, the Ravens, while at time sluggish on offense, are always strong on defense. The veteran defensive players probably travel better than Joe Flacco and his on again off again offense. Plus, the Seahawks have no offense. I mean, technically they have one that is on the field, but they suck at it. The question is, will they finish low enough to draft a QB first round? Ravens to win on the road.

Detroit at Chicago Line: -3.0
This is a tough one in Chicago. The Bears just made the Eagles look like a practice squad last week, while the Lions were taking a nap after a few strange losses (and an ass whipping of Denver.) So this divisional match-up actually means something this year. It won’t matter in the long run though, as the Packers will continue to roll. Well, strike that. My guess is that the wild card in the NFC is coming from this division (since it certainly is not coming from the West) so this game is important. It’s tough to choose though. Both teams are playing smash mouth defensive football, but the Lions have looked better in their wins, while the Bears have looked worse in their losses. I’m going to shake the bones here and see where they land. Ah, the bones have spoken. High scoring game, Bears to prevail at home by a late field goal. Especially if there is outdoor weather involved.

New York at San Francisco Line: -3.0
This game just got bigger than you would have thought. Did you think at the beginning of the season you’d be looking at a 7-1 San Francisco 49′ers? Did you? Did you? No, you didn’t. You thought they were just going to be another cog in the crap fuming machine of the NFC West. Now, with seven wins they have all but locked up the division. Think about it. Last year, the Seahawks won the division at 7-9. The Niners can coast the rest of the season, but they won’t. But that certainly will change the way they play. Crabtree is finally playing to his potential, the defense is lights out, especially against the run and that Alex Smith kid got the chance and the right coach to become a quality QB. So the Giants, and their newly crowned “elite” quarterback roll into town after upsetting the Patriots. This is going to be a huge game for both teams, but the Giants need the win more. But needing doesn’t get you getting and I’m taking the Niners to satisfy the home crowd and come out of this East coast vs. West coast battle a surprising, but now expected, 8-1. Niners at home.

New England at NY Jets Line: -1.0
Oh Tom Brady, what happened buddy? You lost two in a row, and one at home. Ouch. That’s gotta sting something fierce. I bet you used extra conditioner that night. That being said, every single “expert” that I read today are sticking with the Patriots, running with the stat that Brady has never lost three in a row. News flash asshats, Brady isn’t the only guy on that team. And his interceptions aside, the defense is doing two things; jack and shit. They aren’t closing down the run, they aren’t winning the turnover battle and the secondary seems confused. Back to Brady, he’s got no deep threat. While Welker does his due, he’s not a downfield receiver. That’s killing the offense. The Jets, while a bit slow developing an offensive attack have been outstanding on defense. Revis is going to be defensive player of the year the way he’s going. The Jets are fired up and hot after their strong win over Buffalo. Can the Pats rebound on the road? Can the Jets get another huge divisional win? These questions and more will be answered Sunday… SUNDAY SUNDAY. Hell, Jets to win. Out.

Minnesota at Green Bay Line: -14.0
While the other NFC North game was hard to pick, this one is easy. Like Brett Favre before him, Aaron Rodgers has the same strange disease that only afflicts him on Monday Night. It’s like this, on Monday Night, he’s unstoppable. The Packers are unstoppable this year. Even after a nail biter against the Chargers, the Packers played it cool and kept the game further out of reach than the score would indicate. Christian Ponder is getting his third start, second against the Packers. He’ll do okay. Pat the kid on the head. There is no way he’s winning this game though. Not in Green Bay. Not this year. Packers to win.

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