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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Wild-Card Weekend

Thursday, January 3rd, 2013

The first week of the playoffs is here, which means that the word count of this column shrinks considerably. I’m sure you are wondering how I did on my picks this year, I came in around 66% or better most of the time, only having two losing weeks. I think. Frankly, I didn’t keep very good track this year. It’s been a busy year. A lot of transitions, got laid off, got a new job, still trying to find a place where I can be a creative for a living, a writer, whatever. This cubicle shit is killing me. I’m better than that. Working on it.

So, as for the picks this week. I was wrong about the Bears, they didn’t make the playoffs. The Cowboys choked (as expected) and the Giants were unable to make it in. And then all the coaches started getting fired. The only one who didn’t deserve it was Lovie Smith. The rest were bums guilty of bad decision making and scapegoating. Then there are the Jets, who fired the GM but allowed Rex Ryan to keep his job. Which is a joke. The guy clearly proved this year that he has no fucking clue what he’s doing with the tools provided him.

Here’s some additional predictions for the offseason. Mark Sanchez to the Raiders. Tebow to the Jags. Alex Smith to the Cardinals. Vick to the Jets. I also predict, assuming they get a coach worth his salt, the Browns will be a playoff team next year. Mark the fucking tape.

Cincinnati at Houston -4.5
Coming into the playoffs after a loss, Houston has got to be wondering what went wrong against the Colts, because the Bengals will be watching that tape for sure. The Bengals are coming in off a high, having to win their last couple games to get into the show. So they have a pretty stout opponent in Houston, and with Law Firm most likely out after a leg injury, they will have to rely on the passing game to get things going. Look for AJ Green to have a career day against corners that seemed a bit on the lazy side this week. Of course, this is the playoffs and players tend to step it up. Plus, statistics favor the home team in these situations. This one is tough though, as the Bengals defense is one of the most underrated in the league. I don’t think they stop Foster though, he’s AP lite. Houston to win at home.

Minnesota at Green Bay -9.5
I don’t think the Vikings beat the Packers two weeks in a row. Not at Lambeau field, and not in the playoffs. Adrian Peterson came within 9 yards of breaking the single season rushing record, yet after the game was humble enough to not acknowledge that fact and concentrate on the win. I think AP shreds Green Bay again, but not enough to win. Ponder needs to step up his game if AP is to be effective again. The play action has to work, the Packers need to be afraid of Ponder’s arm. I think they surprised the Packers last week, I don’t think it happens this week. And with Jordy Nelson back and running the team (you see him pick up the red challenge flag and school the coach) the Packers should move on to the next round. Packers to win.

Indianapolis at Baltimore -6.5
The Colts went from worst in the league last year, to the playoffs this year. That’s a hell of a turnaround, and here’s why. Anticipating the return of Manning, the Colts made sure that the offensive line was beefed up to previous standards. Last year, it didn’t matter cause the QB’s sucked. This year, with Andrew Luck, that beefed up offensive line gave him the chance to succeed, and that he did. Ballard came on strong later in the year, thanks to that offensive line, and TY Hilton is defining himself as an elite receiver. The defense has had their problems, but the run defense is stout, and it’s going to have to be against Rice and the Ravens. But I still don’t think they can fully succeed without Ray Lewis leading the defense. I think the Colts come out firing, build up a lead and force Flacco to throw the ball, which can sometimes be good or bad. First upset of the playoffs right here. Colts to win.

Seattle at Washington +3.0
This was actually the easiest game for me to pick. The Seahawks are defensively, not to be messed with. This game matches up two QB’s with similar styles, and two running backs (Lynch & Morris) with similar styles. It’ll be interesting to see who breaks off more yards. It’ll be Lynch. The Redskins offense, with RG3, relies on the zone-read option, which brings in the safeties and gives RG3 either a passing lane or a running lane. This only works if he’s 100% healthy, and he’s not. If there is no threat of him breaking off a huge run, then the zone-read is useless. The Cowboys defense was no test of this, the Seahawks defense will be. They’ll be running a contain and will be after RG3 like crazy. Seahawks to win.

Tags: Bengals, Colts, nfl, Packers, Playoffs, Ravens, redskins, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings, Wild card
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 7

Thursday, October 18th, 2012

7-7. That was my record last week. The good news is that I got wins in all three of my fantasy leagues. Go figure. While I picked two upsets (Bills and Lions) I totally got the Niners, Texans and Patriots wrong. But really, who saw that Patriots loss coming besides Seahawks fans? Great game for them though, and it looks like the first time in a long time there might actually be a fight for the division lead in the NFC West, and more than one winning record.

While there are some clear winners and losers in the NFL this year, there is a lot of parity, especially within divisions. Take the AFC East for example. It’s completely up in the air. All four teams are 3-3. That’s gotta be some sort of anomaly. The NFC East is also another division that is close, which is saying a lot because the Eagles are terrible. And they just fired their defensive coordinator, in the middle of the season, even though it’s the offense that is fucked up. The NFC North is close, but it’s the NFC West that is the biggest surprise. Arizona, Seattle and San Fran are tied at 4-2, with the Rams at 3-3. Totally up for grabs.

There is only one undefeated team left, and that’s the Falcons, who are on a bye this week. That means I have to revamp my whole fantasy team or just take a loss. Matt Ryan is my bread and butter. Well, him and AJ Green. I suppose I’ll start Dalton in that league… In other news, Holmgren is out in Cleveland at the end of the year. His term was more than disappointing. They also got a new owner, who apparently likes to buy things and watch them die.

Only 13 games this week, as the bye weeks jump to six teams. Let’s see what Week 7 holds for the NFL. On with the picks!

Seattle at San Francisco -7.0
Both teams at 4-2, both teams surprised this past weekend. The Seahawks showed they were for real by beating the Patriots in dramatic fashion. Meanwhile, the Niners took a very acute turn for the suck with a beat down at the hands of the visiting Giants. Are we seeing a shift in power in this division? Will the Niners come back strong and beat the Hawks? I think so. Niners to win at home.

Tennessee at Buffalo -3.0
Well, the Titans are loading up for a disappointing season… but wait, what’s this? The Titans beat the Steelers? Some weird flip-side shit there. I watched most of that game (like every game) and neither team looked impressive. I’d say the Titans did a good job protecting the run, but the Steelers just don’t have a running game. The Bills are better offensively than the Steelers. Bills to win.

Cleveland at Indianapolis -3.0
I saw a sign in the crowd during the Cleveland game that said “First Step to 11-5″ or something like that. The 11-5 bit was on there. Well, the Browns are now 1-5 and really haven’t improved all that much save for Wheedon and Gordon finally getting a groove. So much so that I picked Gordon up for my fantasy team as a replacement WR. The Cleveland defense is playing good right now, so much so that I picked them up to replace the Atlanta defense. I was going to start Luck in place of Matt Ryan in fantasy, but I don’t like to bet against myself since I’m picking the Browns to win.

Green Bay at St. Louis +5.5
Well, the Packers finally woke the fuck up against the Texans. The Packers seemed to be winging it this season, but came into the Texans game with a serious game plan. Also, consider this: Rodgers is just as good as he was last year. 16 TD’s and 4 interceptions. The Rams are a seriously meh team, but still have a solid shot at the division if they can keep their running game healthy, which it is not. Packers to win.

Arizona at Minnesota -6.0
The Cards are hurting. Feely hits a 61 yarder, then misses a 38 yarder (maybe his foot hurt) then after the game we learned Kolb separated some ribs. Well, he’s out for a while, which means Skelton, who cannot run at all, will be in at QB. Expect the Cards to pump up the running game. Considering that the Vikings were out rushed by RGIII alone last week, I think this is a good week for the running game. But I don’t think Skelton can compliment with the pass against the Vikings pass rush. Vikings to win.

Washington at NY Giants -6.0
The Giants are not to be underestimated. I think they’ll have a better record than last year, but might have trouble in the playoffs. That’s thinking too far ahead. The Redskins are still an up and down team, but the play calling is getting better. Like Vick, RGIII can’t seem to stay in the pocket very long. That’s due to poor pass protection though, rather than his urge to run. Unlike Vick, RGIII can pass worth a shit and doesn’t put the ball on the ground. He ran all over the Vikings last week, he doesn’t get so lucky against the Giants D. Giants to win.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay +3.0
I can’t believe how terrible the Saints are playing of late. They certainly needed the bye week. Even with Vilma back, the lack of coaching and terrible play calling is haunting this team. This season is a wash. Just write it off now. The Bucs are surprising at times with their offense, at other times just a disaster. I think they cap the Saints this week. Bucs to win.

Dallas at Carolina +2.5
I’m not a Cowboys fan, but even I was yelling at the TV on Sunday as they showed some terrible time management and play calling at the end of the game. One timeout and you are killing clock to try a game winning 51 yarder instead of grinding for more yards? Weak. I’m taking the Panthers to win this week because I am just disgusted at the way the Cowboys have approached the game, from their monstrosity of a stadium with cheerleaders on stripper poles, to their former player coach who doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing.

Baltimore at Houston -7.0
The 5-1 Texans welcoming the 5-1 Ravens to Houston? This sounds like a fantastic game! It should be the game of the week! But it’s not. Why isn’t it? Because the Ravens are hurting on defense, like seriously hurting. Ray Lewis is out for the season, most likely ending his career. Webb is out for the season, and Suggs might not be ready to come back yet. Who is going to step up to replace the leadership of Ray Lewis? Someone better do it quick otherwise this defense will fall apart. The Texans secondary played well against the Packers, just were no match for the accuracy of Rodgers. I think with an offensive push against a torn up Ravens front, the Texans will win.

Jacksonville at Oakland -5.0
Oakland came to play last week! The Oakland D was on point, picking off Matt Ryan three times. It wasn’t enough in the end though, but a valiant effort from a team that people have already written off. I’ve written them off, but the Jags are still much worse. The Jags have trouble stopping the run, protecting the run and the list goes on. I’m taking the Raiders.

NY Jets at New England -10.5 UPSET SPECIAL!! GAME OF THE WEEK!! CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
This game is special. With the entire division at 3-3, both Brady and Sanchez aren’t playing to their potential. Brady isn’t nearly as bad as Sanchez, who is posting the worst QB numbers in the league as far as passer rating. Brady got picked off late against Seattle to seal the loss there, while the Jets looked surprisingly good as they beat up on the Colts. I expect this game to be a comedy of errors on both sides of the ball for both teams. That’s why it’s the crapfest. The winner of this game takes the division lead (pending the results of the Bills game) and I think the winner is going to be the Jets in a crazy, wild and painful to watch upset.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati +1.0
Well, I called the Bungles loss last week. It was bound to happen, the Browns winning that is. Too bad for the Bungles that’s a divisional loss. Tell you what though, Dalton is turning into a hell of a passer, when he’s on target. The offense had a hard time keeping the turnover ratio in their favor, hence the loss. AJ Green has been solid for my fantasy team this year, and I’m starting Dalton this week as replacement QB. The Steelers are vulnerable, perhaps not with ease, but I think the Bengals come back strong this week in the passing game. This one is going to go back and forth, perhaps one point deciding the victor, which will be the Bengals.

Detroit at Chicago -6.0
The Lions are saying that their spark is back, that they are tough again. We’ll see about that. Calvin Johnson didn’t have long to wait in his career before being given the Randy Moss treatment of double coverage, but he still pulls balls out of the air. The Bears are killer on defense this year, and are running the ball pretty well. Brandon Marshall has become nothing short of a beast. I’m taking the Bears this week. Solid.

Atlanta at Bye Week
6-0. Matt Ryan is on fire. This team still needs to get the running game back on track.

Denver at Bye Week
Never count Manning out in the second half. I’m thinking he went into the locker room and told the team it was “Tebow Time.”

Kansas City at Bye Week
The Chiefs week to week need to read a refresher course on running the damn ball.

Miami at Bye Week
The Dolphins, at 3-3 are tied for the AFC East lead. With every other AFC East team.

Philadelphia at Bye Week
Vick is terrible, Andy Reid is shifting blame and firing the wrong people. This season is over.

San Diego at Bye Week
Did the Chargers forget that there are two halves of football to be played? It was like the offense gave up in the second half Monday night.

Tags: Bears, Manning, nfl, Packers, Patriots, Picks, Predictions, week 7
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 6

Thursday, October 11th, 2012

Another ten win week last week for me. This paired with two out of three fantasy losses, mostly because I had Reggie Wayne on the bench in both those leagues, and he happened to have a career day. Well, can’t win ‘em all I suppose. It seems that either my game picks are really good, or I win in Fantasy. I can’t have it both ways it appears. Which kind of sucks, because I really like being right, and I really like winning. So there’s that.

The big news this week is that Drew Brees broke Johnny Unitas’ record of consecutive games with a TD pass. Good for Brees. The funny thing about Brees is that if he was drafted now, in the current atmosphere, he’d be out of the league before he would be given a chance to develop. I still feel that a lot of rookie QB’s aren’t given the chance to properly develop before being thrown to the wolves. Some excel under that kind of pressure, like Russell Wilson, while some are generally terrible. But that’s the NFL for ya.

Other big news is the Dolphins won last week. Surprise surprise. Additionally, Brady still owns Manning, and I’m pretty sure I’d like to change any predictions I made about the Green Bay Packers. What is going on there? The Packers aren’t looking much better than the Lions. NFC North – up for grabs. On with Week 6!

Pittsburgh at Tennessee +6.0
It’s been a tough season so far for the Titans. Not only is Chris Johnson not worth the huge contract they gave him, but Locker went down with a shoulder injury. Not that Hasselbeck isn’t good, but he does seem to have entered his football twilight years. The Titans are back home this week, against a Steelers team that is still struggling to find their footing. The running game isn’t what it should be for either team. I’m taking the Steelers to win.

Oakland at Atlanta -9.0
Atlanta is undefeated and looking pretty damn good as an early Superbowl favorite on the NFC side. The only holes in this team is… is… none. The running game is great, Matt Ryan is spot-on with his receivers and the defense is doing exactly what I surmised they’d do. Conversely, the Raiders are the exact opposite. The only bright spot on this team is the glare from the silver on their uniforms. Falcons to win at home.

Cincinnati at Cleveland +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!
The Bengals drop a crappy game to the Dolphins and suddenly aren’t looking so fucking hot. They are only one point favorites against the Browns, a team who can’t seem to get their late game shit together. After rolling to a 14 point lead against the Giants, they then rolled right on over for the Giants to lay down the beating. 4th quarter defense was non-existent. However, the Browns have been playing strong and again are the best looking shittiest team in the league. I’m taking them to win this week.

St. Louis at Miami -3.5
Ok, I didn’t pick either of these teams to win last week. The Rams showed up against the Cards and totally beat them on defense. The Dolphins, well, I think they just got lucky, taking advantage of a Bengals team that was playing like shit. Their run defense was pretty solid too. I’m sticking with the Dolphins here, as Tannehill and Hartline have become quite the pair.

Indianapolis at NY Jets -3.0
The Jets are terrible. Sure, they are three point favorites here and aren’t as bad as the Browns, but Sanchez looked like absolute shit last week. They can’t figure out what to do with Tebow, and it’s obvious as hell what they are doing when they use him. Another loss and Tebow has got to be moved to the starter. Does his miraculous playoff run last year in Denver count for nothing? Colts to win on the road, beating Green Bay was just the start.

Detroit at Philadelphia -5.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Vick is a fucking fraud. Fumbled in the end zone last week, can’t complete anything outside a long bomb or a pitch and run. It’s only a matter of time before Vick becomes road kill. The Lions aren’t playing like a playoff team, they are back to sucking. But the defense is still just as hostile as the environment they are going into. I’m taking the Lions to upset and force Vick to turn over the ball no less than three times.

Kansas City at Tampa Bay -4.0 UPSET SPECIAL #2!!
The 1-4 Chiefs vs. the 1-3 Bucs. It’s a showdown of crap. Brady Quinn will be starting for the Chiefs, finally getting his chance to shine not in a Browns uniform. The Chiefs have the #2 rushing offense in the league, yet only have one win. The Bucs have the 4th ranked rushing defense. This should be fun. Both of them are in the bottom third when it comes to passing offense and defense. However, I think the Chiefs run crack the Bucs defense. Chiefs to upset.

Dallas at Baltimore -3.5
The Ravens defense is going to eat Tony Romo alive. They are going to break off his arms, break off his legs and make Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray watch as they devour him and a ton of turf at the same time. I hope it’s raining on Sunday so they have something to wash him down with. Ravens to win.

Buffalo at Arizona -4.5 UPSET SPECIAL #3!!
The Bills have been smacked around like little bitches since C.J. Spiller went out. It’s like they lost their mojo after losing the #1 rusher. That beating at the hands of the Niners last week, in which the back-up guys were handing it to the Bills in the 4th quarter, has got to wake this team up. The Cardinals come in with a moderate rushing game, and the Bills have proven they can’t stop that. Their best bet is to pressure Kolb, hope he fucks up and rely on the defense to win the game. I think they do. On the road. Upset special number three. Crazy. Bills to upset.

New England at Seattle +3.5
For a second there, I thought that the Broncos might actually come back against the Pats last week. For a second. The Patriots continued their dominance over Peyton Manning, but still looked flawed. I really think the Seahawks, who are playing hot right now, have a valid chance at a win here, but I think the Pats pull it off last minute drive style. Stay tuned for some drama in this one. Pats to win.

New York at San Francisco -4.5
The Niners are looking nearly unstoppable right now. While not undefeated, they are close enough. They put a smacking on the AFC East the past couple weeks and now face the NY Giants, who beat them in the playoffs last year. This game is revenge city, USA. The Niners are going to come out running, play that pistol offense and beat the Giants. Eli is the current king of 4th quarter comebacks, but not this time. Niners to win.

Minnesota at Washington -0.0
Another win for the Vikings means they are a team to watch out for. I like the way their defense is playing and while Ponder isn’t exactly pro-bowl material, he’s getting a lot better managing games. Rolling into a hostile environment of D.C. would normally be a tough game, but the locals are pretty hostile towards their team if they don’t come out winning – and they won’t. RG3 has the drive, but he just doesn’t have the game yet. Give him time. He’ll be what Vick was supposed to be. Vikings to win.

Green Bay at Houston -3.5 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
This is my game of the week for two reasons. The first is the Green Bay Packers record, which sucks. The offense is not clicking, Rodgers seems rushed and the run defense is like wet cardboard. This is their last shot to prove they are still a strong team before the Bears and Vikings leave them behind. The other reason is the Texans are undefeated! Holy shit! Superbowl – Falcons vs. Texans? It’s possible. Think about it. Texans to win.

Denver at San Diego -1.0
Well, the Chargers coughed it up last week. I didn’t watch the entire game, so I can’t give a synopsis of how they ended up losing after being ahead, but I’m guessing it’s cause they suck somehow. Anyway, I can’t pick against Manning two weeks in a row, so Broncos to win.

Chicago at Bye Week
Chicago will win the NFC North.

New Orleans at Bye Week
New Orleans will not win the NFC South.

Carolina at Bye Week
Carolina will not win the NFC South.

Jacksonville at Bye Week
Fire everyone.

Tags: Bears, Brady, football, Manning, nfl, Packers, Predictions, week 6
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 4

Thursday, September 27th, 2012

Let’s put my personal record aside for a moment. How can I pick games properly when the replacement refs are clearly affecting the outcome? You might not think so, and I don’t fully blame the replacements as they are doing their best in a very tough situation, but the NFL has to realize that their product is being devalued right? They do, they just don’t care because we’re not going to stop watching. No matter how many coaches and players complain (mostly on the losing end) the NFL isn’t going to just give in to the refs, because there is money involved.

Here’s the deal, not only is the quality of the game being affected by blown calls and terrible pacing, but the players and coaches are getting a bit out of control. The replacements are unable to control the game, from keeping the pace to keeping the players and coaches in line. It’s a cluster fuck. Monday nights game was the tipping point for a lot of players and fans. There is a harsh truth about that Packers loss, that doesn’t fall solely on the backs of the refs. More on that in a minute.

So what can be done to fix this problem? Even if an agreement is reached, getting the refs back into the game would take at least two weeks with uniform re-fits and standard medical testing. But the NFL needs these guys back in the game now to keep this season from becoming one big joke. Again, the NFL really doesn’t give a shit unless revenue is affected. Do I think the real refs deserve everything they are asking for, like a pension plan? No, I don’t. They aren’t subject to the same physical punishment as the players. They don’t need a pension. Do I think the NFL should cave and give them whatever they want to maintain the integrity of the game? Hell yes. Let’s end this fuckery and get the NFL back. It’s bad enough we may not have any hockey as well.

As of this writing there are conflicting reports about the refs coming to a tentative agreement with the NFL owners. I don’t buy it, but we’ll see if something comes of it. The money of this should come to note, as apparently each owner would have to cough up around 100k to make this deal happen. I don’t know if that’s true, or if that’s a per season cost but I can’t imagine it’s much more than that anyway. I’d love to see the refs back on Thursday night, since you know that game is going to suck anyway. Even if they strike a deal tonight there is no way that they’ll be ready in time since the league switched from Reebok to Nike and fielding refs in Reebok gear would probably violate some other money making agreement, regardless of the safety issues. To the NFL, money is much more important than player safety. I think they’ve made that much clear.

UPDATE: They struck a deal. Regular refs will be back starting with tonight’s game. About fucking time.

Cleveland at Baltimore -12.5
There was one moment last week where I thought the Browns could pull it off and win against the Bills. That moment quickly passed and I wrote it off as gas. The Ravens finally got some revenge against the Patriots, but how much did the refs really have to do with that win? Well, there were some blown calls, some time management issues and yeah, the Ravens had some help. Regardless, they stayed close enough to beat out the Pats in the end. Ravens to win this week with relative ease.

Carolina at Atlanta -6.0
Only six points? The Falcons offense is shredding opponents. Last week my boy Ryan (my fantasy starter) went for 275 passing yards and three TD’s against the Chargers. Ok, the Chargers aren’t that great on defense. Whatever. The point is, the Falcons are probably the best in the NFC right now, and could face the undefeated Cardinals later this year. Carolina is tons of meh. Teams figured out Newton pretty damn quick and exposed him for the poor pocket passer he is. Falcons at home.

New England at Buffalo +4.5
The Patriots own the Bills. I mean, like property. The Bills have no chance, any season, no matter how good they are on offense. With Spiller out, there is no way Tashard Choice carries this team the rest of the way. I’m putting a fork in them. Their rushing game was all they had. Just skating by the Browns isn’t bolstering any confidence in the rest of the offense. Pats to win.

Minnesota at Detroit -0.0
When the Vikings went for it on 4th down early in the game I smelled upset. Sure, I picked the Niners to win – who didn’t? And that upset brewed and was served up nice and delicious. Sucks for the Niners. The Vikings suddenly looked like a playoff caliber team, even if Ponder was still a bit shaky and relied mostly on pitches and the running game. The Detroit defense is just as tough as the Niner defense, but are more likely to show up this week after a heartbreaking loss in over time last week to the Titans. I’m taking Detroit at home.

San Diego at Kansas City +1.0
Yeah, I’m not sold on the Chargers this year. They started off a little bit hot, then certainly fizzled. The Chiefs have done the opposite of that, starting off with two losses then a crazy overtime win against the falling Saints. The Chargers have not found a good running game, while the Chiefs have found a really good running game. I don’t think the Chargers fare well this week and I’m taking the Chiefs to surprise them.

Seattle at St. Louis +3.0
This has been one batshit crazy season hasn’t it? Last week was one of my worst ever for picks, with three overtime games that I got wrong. Not to mention games are 15% longer due to the crappy officiating. One thing is for sure though, the Seahawks are surprising the crap out of everyone. That was a shit win, but a win nonetheless and the Seahawks are looking to take the division lead. They’ll have to pray Arizona loses first. This week, they face a Rams team that isn’t ready to give up, even though they got whipped by Chicago. There is a lot of parity in the league this year, and I’m taking the Rams to rebound this week and put the Hawks in their place.

San Francisco at NY Jets +3.0
In probably one of the cleanest games (as far as officiating is concerned) this weekend, the Jets pulled out an overtime win. That’s because both the Jets and Dolphins sucked for 4 1/2 quarters. I thought it was going to be a tie. The Jets kept trotting out Tebow like some fucking novelty, which never paid off. C’mon, just start him at tight end already. The Niners shouldn’t have too much of an issue with the Jets terrible offense, even though their defense showed some major holes last week. Niners to win.

Tennessee at Houston -10.5
The Titans got their first win of the season, 44 points and Jake Locker was their leading rusher. That speaks more to how much the Lions were sucking it rather than the Titans being awesome. This week, at Houston, who is scary dominant and undefeated the Titans will see if Schaub still remembers how to pass after the whack he took last week. Regardless, even if he’s forgotten, they can just give the ball to Foster all day. Texans to win.

Oakland at Denver -5.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Who ever thought that Peyton would be in a game I’m calling a crapfest? He’s been terrible this year, and it’s his fault. Here’s why – he expects his Denver line to play just like his Colts line did all those years. But that relationship took time to develop, with all his quirks. He won’t get that synergy with this line. So he’ll continue to be terrible. The Raiders are coming off their most violent game of the season, so that should make this one fun to watch. Denver to win.

Miami at Arizona -6.0
I can’t see the Dolphins winning much more than a bowling trophy this year. The Cardinals are coming off another huge win, Kolb cock smacking Andy Reid and the Eagles like a bitch. The undefeated Cardinals are going to punish the Dolphins right in the blowhole. Cards to win.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville +1.0
I think by some stroke of luck, the Jags got lucky. Oh wait, they did. Wait, that sentence is redundant. Either way, a nice game ending 80 yard pass to who-dat Cecil Shorts was all the Jags needed to win their first game of the season. The Bengals, well, they shoved the Redskins around like playground bullies, on defense and offense. Bengals to win.

New Orleans at Green Bay -5.0
Headlines are blaming the refs for the Packers loss at Seattle, in which the Packers scored a terrible 12 points. Rodgers averages 28 points per game, highest of any QB and you are going to blame the refs? If the Packers were up by 30 the last play of the game wouldn’t matter, that would have been a garbage touchdown. Sure, that call at the end was crap, but so fucking what? The Packers offense was stinking the whole game. Blame the offense. Blame McCarthy for playing like a pussy with a 12-6 lead for most of the game. Blame the Packers receivers for not getting open. After the game Rodgers said “We shouldn’t have been in that position.” Damn straight. You should have been up by 3 TD’s at that point. Plus, that was bad defense by the Packers. A pass up in the end zone like that – you knock it down. You don’t try to catch. Knock it down! Yes, the refs missed a clear offensive pass interference call, but it doesn’t matter. The bottom line is to that point, the Packers played like shit on offense and didn’t deserve to win that game. Had Jennings punched that ball out of the air, or Tate’s reach instead of fighting for the catch, we wouldn’t even be having this convo. Or if the refs had flagged Tate for shoving Shields to the ground. Regardless, bad call or not, the Packers played like shit the whole game and deserve to be 1-2. Regardless, the 0-3 Saints are lost, drifting like non-pressure treated wood in the aftermath of Katrina. Too soon? Packers to win.

Washington at Tampa Bay -3.0
The city of Tampa sports bobbleheads think because the Bucs held Romo in check most of the game last week that they are ready to bust out of their shell and become a quality team. Whatever. The Bucs are not going to blast off into the playoffs. But they are going to beat the Redskins, who are struggling to figure out if they have a running game outside of RG3, who is going to get killed this week. Bucs to win.

New York at Philadelphia -1.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
This is the game of the week, to me, because I think this is the game where the Eagles get put away for good this season. Sure, it would only drop them to 2-2, but they were exposed for the shit offense they are last week as the Cardinals just tore them up. Vick is a fraud and will be either out injured or benched after this game. Giants to win.

Chicago at Dallas -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Sure the Bears are on the road, but the Cowboys are nothing spectacular right now. The Bears can halt the run with relative ease and Culter is finding great rhythm with his receivers. I’ve got the Bears mauling the Cowboys, even if the game is in that monstrosity of a stadium in Dallas.

Indianapolis at Bye Week
The Colts have got to work on getting Luck to not overthrow his receivers. That’s some rookie shit that he’s got to overcome.

Pittsburgh at Bye Week
The Steelers are getting old. That is all.

Tags: Colts, fines, Manning, nfl, officals, Packers, Patriots, Picks, pre-game, preview, refs, Seahawks, Steelers
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 3

Thursday, September 20th, 2012

From 9-7 week one to 7-9 week two, you can only assume that this week I’ll go 5-11. Not sure where I went wrong, I picked the Carolina upset, but put too much faith in the Bears and the RedSkins. Not to mention the Cowboys losing and the Broncos losing in spectacular fashion. Pretty sure that this tear of bad allergies I’ve been on lately has clouded my vision when it comes to picking these games. I don’t think in my decade of doing this I’ve ever started out this bad. That makes me 50% on the season so far and that sucks major sack.

Speaking about sacks, the Bills grew a pair and slaughtered the Chiefs in Buffalo. Then Vick won again, this time against the Ravens. I’m telling you, this guy is a fraud and he will be outed as a fraud soon enough. It’s tough to say week two who the winners and losers are really going to be. We have some surprising 2-0 teams and some really surprising 0-2 teams. Then we have standout rookie QB’s and mostly non-standout rookie QB’s. There isn’t a split there. Then we have the Patriots, who I predicted to go 16-0. Then we have the Browns, who are 0-2, but scrappy as hell still. Then we have… nevermind, it’s a mess.

So while DigitalDads glorious leader CC Chapman is off in Spain speaking at some conference about something related to something or other, the rest of us schulbs get to stay here and not eat cool food. But, we get to watch football. So take that CC! Either way, the picks are in, my mind is set (not really) and here comes week three, starting with another Thursday night game. Damn deadlines. Last weeks column was a lengthy 2500 words, I’ll be keeping that count lower going forward. At least, I hope. Seems like I’m losing you all after the open. On with the picks!

New York at Carolina +2.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
How close the Giants were to going 0-2, but Eli is a professional and took control late in the game once again to beat the Bucs. This week, Bradshaw is sidelined which means the running game might struggle a little bit. Carolina surprised the Saints last week, and looked good doing it. They did it on the ground, which goes against defensive gameplans when playing against Cam Newton. That is, he didn’t run everything. I’m taking the Panthers to upset.

St. Louis at Chicago -7.0
Last week I underestimated the Rams and over estimated the Bears. The Rams won on a late field goal miss by the Redskins, but were with them the whole game. I wouldn’t say Bradford looked sharp for once, cause he didn’t, but the defense looked a whole hell of a lot better. Cutler is already under fire from Bears fans and talking heads, for what? Losing against Green Bay? Give me a break. Bears are solid. Bears to win at home.

Buffalo at Cleveland +3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Pretty much every Browns game will be the crapfest of the week. This team is plucky, but they aren’t going to get the wins by staying in the game. If anything, the thing that has kept them in the game has been opposition defense. The Bills defense isn’t as great as beating the Chiefs would make them seem. That was all Bills offense. This after a week in which Fitzy threw like 100 interceptions. Expect him to throw more against Cleveland. This game could go either way, and even though I predicted the Browns to go 1-15, I’m taking them to win this week.

Tampa Bay at Dallas -9.0
That line is really deceiving. The Bucs defense is strong and made Eli Manning look like a rookie last week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys took a drubbing at the hands of the Seahawks. I didn’t see many highlights from this game on the Cowboys side. I expect the Bucs to stay in the game, maybe get damn close to winning it, but I’m taking the Cowboys to bounce back this week with a home win.

Detroit at Tennessee +4.0
So far this season Calvin Johnson isn’t really living up being my first round pick in many fantasy leagues. Instead, the Lions are relying on the ground game of Smith and a lot of tight end involvement. Ok, I can dig on that. The Titans are hurting, taking another beating this past week. Locker is back in the game, but he’s not any good yet. Of course that offensive line isn’t helping much. Detroit should send the Titans to 0-3.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis -3.5
Another beating last week were the Jags at the hands of the Texans. They just couldn’t stop the run to save their lives. While the Colts don’t have the strongest running game, their defense is starting to mesh a little bit and they held Peterson to 60 yards last week. Luck is syncing with his receivers and I’m telling you, this team is going to surprise you. Colts to win.

NY Jets at Miami +3.0
Yet another ass whipping last week, but the Dolphins were on the winning side of it. Who knew? Reggie Bush rushed for 172 yards in one fucking game! If you thought he was done, he ain’t. Bush faces a stingy run defense, but a secondary that gives up a lot of yards. Tannehill is going to have to come out of his rookie shell a bit if he hopes to beat the Jets. Sanchez isn’t the best QB, but he can find the holes in a crappy secondary just as good as any other QB. Jets to win.

San Francisco at Minnesota +6.0
This is pretty easy to pick. The Vikings aren’t that good at all. Ponder is going to find himself backing up Tannehill next year if he doesn’t get it going with his receivers. The defense is terrible, the offensive line is shaky… the Niners are going to tear them a new one. Niners to win.

Kansas City at New Orleans -9.5
The Saints are the best 0-2 team. I hate writing that. That’s so cliche. What a flaming pile of turd. Sadly, they are. The Chiefs by no account should be able to handle the Saints, and the Saints were bested by better teams, I think. Anyway, the Chiefs are having trouble getting any offense going this season and the Saints really, really need a win. Saints at home.

Cincinnati at Washington -2.0
Oh man, the Redskins were so close to starting off the season 2-0, but a late missed field goal kept them from the win. Other than that, this is the best this team has looked in years. They finally have a franchise QB and while he doesn’t quite have the receiver core he’s going to need for the future, RGIII is looking good. The Bengals almost lost to the Browns, so, Redskins to win.

Philadelphia at Arizona +5.5
Ugh. I dislike both these teams. Vick is a piece of shit and has gotten lucky the past two weeks to go 2-0. Both times, he should have lost. The Cardinals surprised everyone last week with their pretty clean win against the Patriots. It wasn’t a blowout, they nearly lost save for the Patriots taking too many late penalties. The Cardinals aren’t ready for the basement in the NFC West this year. Cards to win at home and surprise the Eagles.

Atlanta at San Diego -3.0
Does Philip Rivers have a new favorite tight end? Dante Rosario with two touchdowns last week, Antonio Gates with zero. How many of you have Rosario on your fantasy team? So many teams are running dual TE sets right now, it’s hard to pick just one and stick with him. I suggest going with the match-ups and picking one up off waivers. Basically, whomever is playing the Browns. I’d pick the Chargers any other day, but the Falcons defense made Manning look like a chump last week. They are playing great across the middle of the field, where Rivers likes to throw. I’m taking the Falcons to win. Not just cause I have Ryan, Falcons D & Tony Gonzalez on my fantasy team.

Houston at Denver +1.0
As much as I want to pick Denver to win this game, as much as I want to see Peyton do well in Denver, the Texans have one of the best past rushes and the best running games in the league. Foster is going to shred the Denver defense, who then will be shredded in the air. The only hope for Denver is that Peyton gets his communication with the offensive line straightened out because they were a mess last week. He’s bringing years of chicken calling at the line to a line that isn’t used to it. Houston to win on the road.

Pittsburgh at Oakland +3.0
Carson Palmer threw for nearly 400 yards against the Dolphins, yet still looked like shit. There was no running game, and that was against a mediocre defense. How do you think they are going to do against a good rush defense in the Steelers? Not so well. Eventually the Steelers have to play the Ravens twice, but not this week. Steelers to win on the road.

New England at Baltimore -3.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
I was screaming at the television as Flacco, with nearly two minutes left in the game against the Eagles, kept flinging the ball to short yardage or outlet receivers, or going for it deep, rather than just get it to Rice. Rice was tearing up the Eagles all game, they couldn’t handle him. He didn’t touch the ball but once on an outlet pass in that final possession. So the Eagles won and the Ravens looked like tools. Same thing for New England, they had a final chance to drive for a field goal and win it, but penalties and Brady flinging the ball around like a wild man kept them from it. It made no sense. Seemed like panic coaching. Both coming off a loss, this game is a replay of the AFC Championship last year, in which the Ravens should have won. So I’m picking them to win this week instead. I know, I predicted the Pats to go 16-0, obviously that’s not going to happen.

Green Bay at Seattle +6.0
Wow. All I have to say is wow about the Seahawks. I mean, who saw that coming? The whole team came together and Russell Wilson looked damn good for a rookie QB. He was making smart decisions and picking apart that Cowboys secondary for first downs. But it was the veteran Lynch that really put the Cowboys away. Green Bay though is coming off a week and a half rest, a re-energized defense. They still don’t have much of a running game, but they are the stronger team. I’m sticking with the Packers on this one.

Tags: nfl, Packers, Patriots, Picks, Ravens, Tom Brady, week 3
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 2

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

Terrible first week by my standards. I went a horrible 9-7. I don’t think I’ve done that bad since some time last year. I can’t believe that I picked the Chiefs over the Falcons. What was I thinking in that one? I must have been on drugs or something. I wasn’t, but man my head must not have been in the right place. I did say the Niners could upset, but I picked Green Bay and fuck the Cowboys.

So now that we’ve gotten a regular season look at all the teams (if you have NFL RedZone that is) what do we think? We think that the Niners are going to be near unstoppable, the Panthers looked flat and RGIII was very solid in his debut while the other rookie QB’s were a bag of suck. We learned that Manning didn’t lose a step and the Browns and Bills organizations apparently don’t know that they play football. We also learned that the replacement refs make the same stupid mistakes that the regular refs do, with only some time management issues being the glaring mistakes.

So now we’re on to week 2, which starts tonight as the Bears meet the Packers. That’s not too much rest for either of these teams, so we’ll see how they do. Wait, that bit should be in the prediction. I’m aiming for a better week this week, something in the 11 or 12 win range. So without any further fanfare (unlike an Apple press event) on with the picks!

Chicago at Green Bay -4.0
Well, Brandon Marshall was simply amazing. I really regret not drafting him on my fantasy team. Speaking of that, two out of three fantasy team wins this past weekend. Not too shabby. I’m having a little trouble in the league that scores defensive players individually, as I don’t think I picked the right ones. May have to do a trade or something. Anyway, the Bears coasted to an easy win over the Colts, who still looked like they don’t have Peyton Manning. Marshall was there at every turn, giving Cutler a reliable target. I liked the steady pace of the Bears offense, you could tell that Mike Martz was no longer doing shit to muck it up. The Packers NFC dominance is over. I’m calling it. Code! Crash cart! In fact, at this point I’d like to change my prediction and pick the Bears to win the division. I’m going to start here, Bears win on the road.

Kansas City at Buffalo -3.0
Memo to Bills staff: “Considering the state of our organization and the fact that we haven’t won any playoff game in 11 years, we will be cancelling Hawaiian shirt Friday. This may come as a shock to most of you in the front office, but aside from the fact that Chan refuses to button the top three buttons of his shirt, we have no choice but to pick this particular activity to cancel. There will also be no more free cupcakes on Thursdays in the break room, and you’ll have to bring in your own coffee filters. We are also holding open tryouts for the following football positions: QB, WR, LB, OT, DE, TE, SS, CB, RB, K, P, DT. Please apply with Maggie in HR. That is all.” Chiefs to win on the road.

Cleveland at Cincinnati -7.0
The Bengals running game was the only bright spot last week, which is good considering they were playing the Ravens. Green was basically shut down for most of the game and the defense was unable to contain anything including their lunches. The drubbing by the Ravens exposed a lot about this team, mostly that Marvin Lewis (as expected) is a big hairy pussy. There is no will to win in his coaching style. The Browns face a similar situation in Shurmur, just no will to win. The defense was stellar against the Eagles, but that might have been a fluke. The Browns will lose this week, Wheedon will get sacked and hurried and rushed a lot, but I think we’ll learn how bad these two teams are gonna suck this year. Bengals at home.

Minnesota at Indianapolis +5.0
Do I have to pick this game? Does it seem like more teams suck this year than are stellar? I can’t decide if this game is going to be worse than the one above it or the one below it. I’m so confused. The Colts were meh as they were completely outmatched by the Bears. Bright spots; Luck looked okay, Donald Brown looked great on the ground. Brown and his production is going to be the key to this team getting their shit together. The secondary needs to step up if they want to compete against premiere quarterbacks. That’s a real hurt on this team. Marshall smoked them, sometimes in double coverage. The Vikings roll in, fresh off a lucky OT win over the hapless Jags. Ponder looked like warm crap on your tire, but somehow pulled it off by going to the TE route and Peterson as often as possible. I’m going out on a limb here and taking the Colts to upset, again, cause I want to see Luck get his first win.

Oakland at Miami +3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Something you don’t ever want to hear in professional football: “bring in the back-up long snapper!” That was doom for the Raiders as kicking mistakes handed the Chargers an easy win. If not for that, the Raiders might have had a chance to come into Miami with a win. As it is, both these teams are looking for their first win, but I don’t think the Dolphins are up to the task. Tannehill was atrocious, probably the worst rookie performance on Sunday. I dunno. I didn’t look at the stats, he just looked bad. The Dolphins are really having trouble adjusting to a new defensive pattern, missing coverages and tackles all over the place. I expect the Raiders to come in with a thirst for blood and I expect them to find some for slurping. Raiders to win on the road.

Arizona at New England -13.0
After last week, do I really have to pick another New England game? I predicted them at 16-0 so I suppose I can save some typing and just say Patriots to win. However, the Cardinals should give them some trouble, if they take Tom Brady’s parking spot. The Cardinals saw Skelton go down and Kolb take over to lead the team past the Seahawks last week, a slight feat considering that division. A two touchdown line is generous. Pats to win. I already said that. Pats to win all season.

Tampa Bay at NY Giants -9.0
What can I say about the team that I hate the most? The Bucs were surprisingly good last week, both on defense and on the ground. Not to mention the rush defense which stifled the Panthers. I did not see that coming. Regardless, now they face a team that has tons of weapons on offense, which will really test the Bucs defense. I think the Bucs defense has made a good turnaround and looks like they could seal some games for the lackluster offense this year, but I’m not placing any major bets. Eli and the Giants are too good for that. But wait, the Giants lost to the Cowboys last week! How did that happen? Well, it happened with bad secondary coverage and Romo looking like the quarterback everyone seems to think he is. The Bucs don’t have that kind of passing game to severely threaten the Giants secondary, but they need to be on their game. Giants to win.

Baltimore at Philadelphia -1.0
Are you kidding me with this fucking line? Did Flacco sustain a head injury that we don’t know about? The Ravens trashed the Bengals last week, while the Eagles struggled against one of the worst teams in the league. Are you oddsmakers telling me that you think Vick will throw any less interceptions against the Ravens superior defense than he did against the Browns? Vick was lucky to get out of there with a win and all his freaking ribs. This is a joke. Ray Rice is a beast and crushed it last week. There is no way that the Eagles defensive line is any better than the Browns. This is a gross miscalculation. Ravens to win.

New Orleans at Carolina +6.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I didn’t think that I’d see an 0-1 Saints team meeting up with an 0-1 Panthers team. The Saints were completely surprised by the abject accuracy of RGIII and the lack of Will Smith and Vilma on defense showed. Not to mention the lack of leadership in not having a coach on the field. This team is hurting right now and it was apparent last week. Meanwhile, the Panthers took it in the tailpipe from the Bucs, especially when it came to the running game. The good news for them is that Jonathan Stewart will play against the Saints. This is a tough one to call, but I’m thinking the Panthers are going to rebound before the Saints do. Cam knows what to do. Panthers to upset.

Houston at Jacksonville +7.0
Forget it. Arian Foster proved why he was the top fantasy pick in so many leagues, or if not the top – the first picked running back. When he sees the opportunity to shred a lousy team for tons of yards and touchdowns he does, and he did against the Fins last week. Then you tack on the Shaub to Johnson connection and you can’t beat this team on offense. The Jags defense won’t be able to keep up, even though they contained the game against the Vikings. The Jags are still looking for their offense to click, MJD and Jennings are sharing carries and neither looks like they showed up for training camp. Florida teams are in for a bad year and it sucks to say that the Bucs are the best of the three of them. Texans to win on the road.

Washington at St. Louis +3.0
Bradford found himself in too much trouble last week to really consider his performance. While he was able to rally the team to keep in the game against the Lions, he was rushed way too much to be able to keep the score up. The Redskins found their offense, finally, after all these years of bad quarterbacks, bad ownership and bad coaching. RGIII is the real deal and was terribly accurate the entire game, finding his way out of pressure and making the right connections. Helu got back into the game, looking better than he has in a few seasons. And did you know, the kids aren’t Tebowing anymore, they are RGIII’ing or something like that. You know when he sat down and raised his hands after that long touchdown pass to Garcon, that. The bad news is Garcon went out after that, not sure if he’s back in this week. Shouldn’t matter, should still be a win. The Redskins are gonna make the NFC East interesting this year. Skins to win on the road.

Dallas at Seattle +5.0
Dallas. Look, Russell Wilson actually looked pretty good against the Cardinals last week, I mean, compared to Wheedon. He made some passes, Sidney Rice caught some balls and they still lost the game. The Seahawks are held together with that clear plastic tape that doesn’t work well for boxes. The Cowboys roll in, fresh off a win over the reigning Super Bowl champs. That’s enough for me. The Cowboys defense was strong, their running game was tight and Romo looked like a bon-a-fide QB. I may have underestimated the Cowboys this season. If they blowout the Hawks, I may have to change my thinking on this team.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh -6.0
It’s really hard to judge the Jets at this point because the Bills are horrible. A win was a no-brainer. Sanchez was passing to every receiver that he had on the field and every time either him or Tebow lined up out of the QB position I grumbled a little bit because it was pretty damn obvious what they were doing. I do like how Tebow came out on the hands team on that Buffalo onside kick and got the ball, that was amusing. Every time the two of them were on the field I just wanted to laugh. I thought I was watching playground football. I didn’t see much of the Pittsburgh loss, I was doing something else, I always am during the Sunday night game, kind of on in the background. All I know is that a quality QB smoked their secondary and an aging RB smoked their run defense. The Jets could be trouble for the Steelers, but I think the Steelers rebound on this one at home and sneak by the Jets. Steelers to win.

Tennessee at San Diego -6.0
Well, Jake Locker was another rookie Qb with another less than stellar debut. He ended up leaving the game a bit early, injured and Hasselbeck came into the game. To that point, it didn’t really matter as they were up against the best offensive team in the league. This week, they come to sunny San Diego, where Rivers and crew is feeling the pinch without a prime reciever after Jackson left. The only reason the Chargers won as because of messed up kicking by the Raiders. So you have the Titans, who aren’t too bad on the run defense and the Chargers who aren’t too great on the run. This is a toss up for me, but I’m taking the home team, Chargers to win.

Detroit at San Francisco -7.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
This is my game of the week because while winning over Green Bay was pretty impressive, the Niners need to do it two weeks in a row for me to really crown them the new kings of the NFC. The Packers looked like they hadn’t played football in a while, and if you think about it – their defense hasn’t. Their defense was coasting all year last year because of the offense. Well, the offense sputtered against the Niners and the defense wasn’t ready to step up. The Lions defense is always stepped up, at least for the last year. They have to be. Kevin Smith had a killer game last week, just tearing it up on the ground. I like this guy at RB. But the Niners defense is the bestest! He’ll have trouble finding the holes this week. I’d like to see the Lions make a game of it, but I think the Niners are just too damn good right now. Even Moss is scoring touchdowns. Niners at home.

Denver at Atlanta -3.5
I made a mistake last week picking the Chiefs to beat the Falcons. I don’t know what I was thinking. Matt Ryan is my starting fantasy QB. He had four fucking touchdowns. Four! You can’t bet against that. And now they get their first home game against the Denver Mannings? I dunno. I don’t know how I can pick against Manning. I mean, he played like he had just taken a week off to fold umbrellas or something. He hasn’t lost a step, ran the offense and took care of business against a high class defense. The Falcons defense is good, but I dunno if they are Manning good. This is going to be an offensive shootout. There has got to be some stat about Manning on Monday night, so I’m running with it. Denver to upset.

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Tags: Bears, Brady, Bucs, cardinals, Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Manning, newton, nfl, Packers, panthers, pre-game, Predictions, Ravens, Steelers, week 1
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 1

Thursday, September 6th, 2012

The first column of the season is always the hardest to write. Once the preview columns are done, then it’s time to get to the week to week and this early, it’s hard to tell who is going to do what week to week. Can’t say that my first week record is very good. Of course, I’m not going to go back and add it up either. So just take my word for it.

If you’ve never read this column, it’s like this, I predict a winner for the upcoming games by looking at the previous week, babbling about my fantasy team and speculating on things I may have heard, read or made up. Frankly, the whole thing is a crap shoot. I generally end the season with around a 65% success rate, so if you are using this column for gambling purposes – you’re a moron. While that is a good pick percentage, chances are you have a gambling problem and are losing money anyway. I don’t want to be involved in your losses. Take your addiction somewhere else buddy.

I already picked last nights game earlier in the week, so I’m going to skip that one. Hell, when I wrote this the game hadn’t even been played yet. So, I’ll just say the [INSERT TEAM HERE] won. Go team!

Indianapolis at Chicago -9.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Yeah, I think I just gave away this pick. Look, I think Cutler and the Bears have been playing well the past couple seasons, but with Urlacher coming back from an injury and Forte getting his huge contract, I don’t think they are going to come out of the gate firing. The Colts looked great in preseason, and I know, it’s just preseason but I like this Luck kid and I think that he’s going to start off the season surprising the hell out of the Bears. Unlike Manning, Luck does pretty well in the outdoors and the weather is still nice in Chicago. If this were a later season game I might look at it a different way. As confident as I am, I’m starting Luck in all my fantasy leagues. Colts to upset on the road.

Philadelphia at Cleveland +6.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!
The Browns are terrible. While I’d love to predict a win for them at some point this season, I don’t see it happening. And now with Haden suspended for three games, their defense has taken a huge hit. The only positive in this game is hoping the Browns put some damage on Vick. They won’t be able to cover the receivers without Haden playing dirty out there in the secondary and their run defense is suspect. The Eagles are going to light them up in the air. If you have any Eagles players on your fantasy team, make sure you start them this week.

St. Louis at Detroit -9.0
The Rams are getting some hype right now, new coach, new system, new offensive plan. I’m not sold. I think Stephen Jackson will have a solid season, but I don’t think that Bradford will get hit any less. They still have problems on the lines and Detroit will exploit them, especially when the Lions are on defense. The Rams might make a contest out of it, but Stafford is a much more bon-a-fide QB than Bradford, and he’s proven it. The Lions are a team to no longer take lightly. Lions to win at home, with the points.

New England at Tennessee +7.0
What a test for Jake Locker right out of the gate, and Chris Johnson. The Patriots roll in, fresh off a Superbowl loss, looking to redeem themselves by making it back this year. Considering I predicted the Pats to go 16-0, clearly I can’t pick them to lose. This game will be interesting though, as we’ll see if the Pats defense has improved since last year, when they were absolutely terrible. An improved defense, with that offense, they’ll be unstoppable. I’m hoping that losing this game won’t destroy Jake Locker for the season. If you have Rob Bironas on your fantasy team – start him. Pats to win on the road.

Atlanta at Kansas City +1.0
I’m a bit surprised at this line. I guess the Chiefs gained a couple points by playing at home, and Atlanta dropped a couple not playing in the dome. The key to this game for the Chiefs is the running game. Can they get Johnson and Hillis past the Falcons front D-line? Probably. The Falcons aren’t the greatest on run defense. The Chiefs will have to press them on offense and press Ryan on defense. He’s got too many weapons to not pressure him out of the box on a regular basis. I’m taking the home team on this one though, just because of home team statistics during week one. Chiefs to win.

Jacksonville at Minnesota -4.5
The Jags are going to have a rough year. Even though MJD has shown up, it’s still a question of whether he is going to “show up”. It could go either way. Meanwhile the Vikings aren’t exactly playoff bound, but the Jags are a good opponent for young Ponder to show us that he’s been studying in the off season. Late game mistakes killed this kid last season, and I’m going to guess we’ll see a bit more maturity out of him this time around. I like the Vikings at home, just cause the Jags suck worse.

Washington at New Orleans -8.5
What a fun test for RGIII. Too bad he didn’t get the Bucs to start off the season. Instead he gets the lights out secondary of the Saints and his defense gets to get smoked by the Saints offense. The Saints are going to win this game, it’s just a question of by how much. I’m thinking by at least two touchdowns. The Skins need to take advantage of the Saints run defense, which isn’t all there thanks to suspensions. RGIII isn’t really a running QB though, but he’s got mobility. That should open up enough time to get a pass off. And unlike Vick, he can take a hit. Saints to win at home.

Buffalo at NY Jets -6.0
I read one column last night predicting the Bills to make the playoffs. Yeah, I’m not buying it. I like the Bills, but they don’t have the winning spirit, whatever that is. Chan Gailey just doesn’t take enough chances. The Jets are going to be fun to watch this year. How long before Sanchez makes a mistake and the crowd starts chanting for Tebow? Not long. I expect it by the third quarter of this game. Rex Ryan knows what he’s doing and he knows that Sanchez is not as electric as some think he is. I expect Tebow time to start early this year. Jets to win at home.

Miami at Houston -6.5
The Dolphins are coming in with a revamped defense, only because they have a new coordinator, and a rookie QB. Meanwhile, the Texans are without Mario Williams for the first time since he entered the league. How will this affect their defense this year? Against the Fins, shouldn’t change anything. We’ll have to wait until they play a strong offensive unit. Speaking of offense, Foster is going to shred the Dolphins on the ground. There is no doubt about that. I’m putting him at over 100 yards for this game for sure. Texans to win at home.

San Francisco at Green Bay -7.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!
This is a great match-up with playoff implications. As in, these teams will most likely see each other again in the playoffs. You have the best defense in the Niners against the best passing offense in the Packers, in my estimation. The Packers won’t be able to run against the Niners, but they’ll try. Alex Smith has some new weapons to play with on offense, while Rodgers is gunning with pretty much the same guys, which means he’s already got the cadence down pat. I’m taking the Packers to win at home, but this is going to be a back and forth affair with a chance that the Niners upset.

Seattle at Arizona +1.0
I guess it is too early in the season for me to not give a shit about the Cardinals. Actually, this whole division is just crap save for the Niners. An in-division match-up like this, it may as well be week 17 and both these teams are 6-9. The Hawks haven’t been the same since letting Hasselbeck leave, even though he had at least a year left in him as a starter, as he proved in Tennessee. The Cardinals are starting Skelton over Kolb, who cares? Both of these guys will be floating around the league as backups after this season for the rest of their careers. Meh. Cardinals to win just cause they are home.

Carolina at Tampa Bay +3.0
As with the Cardinals, it’s too early for me not to give a shit about the Bucs. I don’t think they will do as well as some people (mostly people here in Tampa) seem to think they will do. I think they are going to suck hard nuts. This first game will be a huge indicator for that. Will they be able to put the brakes on Cam Newton as they were unable to do last year? I highly doubt it. Newton is a fucking pro. That kid can run, jump and pass. The Bucs won’t be able to defend him – again. They might be able to contain him a bit. And I don’t even know about the Bucs offense. I can see them forcing the ball to Jackson just cause of the price they paid. Panthers to win on the road.

Pittsburgh at Denver -1.5
Without Tebow, this doesn’t seem like much of a rematch. Without Tebow, but with Manning, the Broncos are favored in this game. The Steelers don’t perform well in Denver, that much is clear. Regardless, the match-up of the Denver Mannings vs. the Steelers defense is going to be a good one. This, like many games, is an early test for the QB. If there is one team that is going to bring the pressure and the hits, it’s going to be the Steelers. For that reason, and that I don’t think Manning has got his system in place 100% just yet, I’m taking the Steelers to win.

Cincinnati at Baltimore -7.0
Most pundits, including me, are saying that A.J. Green is going to be one of the premier receivers in the league this year. Go ahead and dispute that. The Dalton to Green connection is hot and will lead the Bengals to more than a few wins. But this week, they travel to Baltimore and the Ravens lights out defense. The Ravens are one team that I can say has a really good secondary backed by a pretty good offense. The Ravens are playoff bound and are going to start the season off by roughing up the Bengals a bit. Don’t expect the Bengals to sit this one out though, they’ll be in the game. Ravens to win at home.

San Diego at Oakland -1.0
And finally we come to the Raiders. While I have them winning a few games, it’s going to be awhile before they get on any kind of track. This season is the last chance for Norv Turner with the Chargers, and maybe for Rivers as well. They have got to make something happen with this team. Starting off with a road win in the black hole will bode well for them. Plus, the Chargers generally get off to a hot start. Chargers to win on the road.

Tags: Bears, Brady, Bucs, cardinals, Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Manning, newton, nfl, Packers, panthers, pre-game, Predictions, Ravens, Steelers, week 1
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: NFC North Preview

Thursday, August 16th, 2012

So there still is a fight going on between the networks and fans. Which is better? Getting all the games on DirectTV or watching NFL RedZone? I’d have to go with NFL RedZone as you don’t get any of the players standing around. It’s all action, all the time. I’d rather watch that than flip back and forth between games.

Anyway, we’re in the second week of Preseason and two things are absolutely clear right now. I don’t give a shit about the Jets and Peyton Manning. We get it. Tebow plays for the Jets now and Peyton Manning plays for the Broncos. There are other teams out there. Thirty other teams to be exact. So let’s talk about them too.

Since I am now in three fantasy leagues I’m starting to think about who I’d pick for the important offensive positions, though one league also has defensive players as well. Who are the underdogs that are going to blow up this season? How about Cedric Benson? He’s playing for the Packers now, who have been terrible in the backfield. How about Peyton Hillis over on the Chiefs? Dude can run. Regardless, finding that hidden gem in the draft is going to be fun. Today however, we’re talking about the NFC North.

NFC North

Detroit Lions
Ok, not to give too much away but Calvin Johnson is my #1 fantasy pick. How can he not be? The Stafford to Johnson connection was brutally awesome last year, and looks to continue this year. The trick for the Lions though, is finishing games, and that’s on the defense. They need to get Suh back to 2010 strength, killing offensive lines.

I do worry about the Lions in the backfield though. Due to Javid Best suffering a billion fucking concussions (he should really just retire before he dies) I don’t see him playing a full career of football. It’s too bad, he was a great runner. Meanwhile Mikel Leshoure gets a second chance at a rookie season after being injured all last year. I’m surprised the Lions didn’t make a serious move for Benson, or pick up a RB late in the draft.

So where does that leave the Lions? It leaves them between a Green place and a Bears place, that’s where it leaves them. As of this moment in time, no matter how many touchdown connections there are between Stafford and Johnson I don’t see the Lions topping the Bears and Packers at all this season. I’d love to predict this team to hit the playoffs (as I did last year) but I’m degrading their manes to just a winning season at best.

Projected Finish: 9-7

Green Bay Packers
Good for Matt Flynn. Kid had a huge game at the end of last season and was able to land a nice contract for a starting job that probably won’t last. Can anyone say Matt Cassell? Anywho, it looks like Rodgers is backed up by who-dat Graham Harrell, out of Texas Tech and draft pick #243 B.J. Coleman out of Tennessee-Chattanooga. The reason I mention this, is for all of Green Bay’s pluses on offense, Rodgers was sacked a lot last year and may need a break at some point later in the season due to minor injury. He’s no Rothlesburger.

The major change is that Ryan Grant is out at running back and Cedric Benson is getting another shot to be the man. I dunno. I’m thinking James Starks will end up being the major player here when it comes to the run game, which ranked 27th overall last year. That sucks for a team that won so many games and once again went to the NFC Championship. Though they say defense wins championships, so what about the defense?

Clay Matthews. Need I say more? Ok, how about adding USC DE Nick Perry? That dude is a monster and will surely compliment Matthews on the line. The sad thing about defense is that Charles Woodson is still the go-to corner. The guy is one of the greats, but doesn’t have the speed some of the younger guys do. Basically, if the Packers come out strong on defense this year, they’ll easily coast to the playoffs. I’m a little wary of the defense at this point though, so I’m knocking them down a couple wins because of that.

Projected Finish: 13-3

Chicago Bears
Backup QB Jason Campbell, RB Michael Bush and WR Brandon Marshall join a Bears offense that never seems to find its stride when they need it. Mike Martz is gone as offensive coordinator, replaced by the slightly more aggressive Mike Tice. Tice, once head coach of the Vikings, has a style much unlike Martz, you know, simpler. Martz and his overcomplicated offensive schemes with little room for improvisation will not be missed by Bears faithful. Last year, even I was yelling at the television when he made some of the strangest and ill timed play calls, that even if they had been successful would still have failed.

Urlacher will be ready for the season, and Peppers is still one of the best defensive players in the game, but the question on defense is that of secondary play. Basically, are they good enough to beat the Packers offense? I don’t think so. I like the drafting of safety Brandon Hardin out of Oregon State, but rarely do rookies at that position become game changers. Who knows?

The real issue with the Bears though, is going to be Brandon Marshall. That guy can either be the best or the most destructive in the club house. I’m thinking that when the Bears start losing, and they will, he’ll lead the self implosion and Lovie Smith doesn’t have the heart to smack his guys around. The Bears are in for another roller coaster season as they teams around them continue to improve.

Projected Finish: 8-8

Minnesota Vikings
First, the good news. Christian Ponder is the QB of the future for this team. Last season he showed great poise and pocket presence, only breaking down late in games. That kind of behavior can be taught out of him, and I think adding another young receiver like Jerome Simpson is a good move to give Ponder some solid targets. Also, like Hester in Chicago, Percy Harvin remains a wild-card on offense and special teams. He can turn around the tempo of a game in a heartbeat.

That’s it for the good news. The bad news is that Adrian Peterson is coming off an ACL and MCL injury, so if you are thinking of drafting him first in your fantasy league, think again. I’m guessing with the way that the Vikings offensive line is looking (bad) he’ll be taking way too many hits behind the line of scrimmage. Then there is the departure of probably the best kicker in the league, Ryan Longwell. He’ll be replaced with a rookie. Interesting how valuable kickers are when you miss them.

As for the defense, the Vikings drafted three secondary players if that tells you anything. Their secondary is a mess and I don’t think rookies are going to be the ones to fix it. The Vikings defense is going to be a huge sore point, especially in a division with three other teams with explosive offenses. That’s at least six losses right there. Yeah, I’m not smelling good scents for this team.

Projected Finish: 3-13

Tags: Bears, Lions, NFC North, nfl, Packers, preview, Vikings
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

Tags: Brady, brees, Broncos, divisional round, Giants, gore, nfl, niners, Packers, Patriots, Playoffs, Ravens, Saints, Tebow, Texans
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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 3

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

Can Fitz lead the Bills past the Patriots?

Bam. Last week I went a smooth 14-2, my only misses being the losses by the Ravens and the Niners. This would have been a huge win, but then I realized that a bunch of people in the office pick ‘em pool went 14-2 and they were just guessing. Dammit. Either way, that brings me to 22-10 on the season, so at least I’m well over 50%. I need another huge week to get to that 68% goal and stay there for the rest of the season. Experts, suck it. Week three bitches!

Featured Game

New England at Buffalo Line: +9.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
At the beginning of the season, before the Bills were 2-0, I said that the Patriots might lose one or two games this year, and one of them is going to come at the hands of the Bills. Well, here we are in week 3 and the Patriots are meeting a hot 2-0 Bills team in Buffalo. If this game were in Foxboro, I’d pick the Pats, no doubt. However, it’s not. The Patriots simply own the Bills over the last couple years, but this year the Bills seem a bit – better. But their two wins did come against the Raiders and the falling Chiefs, so how good are the Bills really? The Patriots have a good defense, but their secondary is suspect. Tom Brady is on pace for like 2 billion yards (thanks to bad secondary play of the Dolphins.) Can Fitzpatrick take advantage of a shoddy secondary to push ahead of the Patriots? Can the Patriots pressure Fitz so he makes mistakes? Because he hasn’t made many thus far. These question and more will be answered on Sunday! (Sunday Sunday Sunday.) Anyway, I’m taking the Bills to upset. That’s what my gut says.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

San Francisco at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Niners certainly found a way to lose last week. Bad coaching and clock management sent them into overtime only to lose. Had they taken the defensive penalty and the first down – rather than the field goal, the Cowboys wouldn’t have had enough time to catch up. Instead, they are now 1-1. Weak. The Niners are a better team than how they were coached last week, so hopefully that shows when they roll into Cincinnati, also 1-1 after losing at Denver. The Bungles are establishing a nice running game, and Dalton is no slouch at this point. Really, the two QB’s (Dalton and Smith) are pretty evenly matched. I’d say this game will come down to special teams play, of which the Bungles are severely lacking. The Niners to win on the road and Ginn to run at least one return back for a TD.

Miami at Cleveland Line: -2.5
Hey, the Browns are favored! Two weeks in a row. Picking them last week against the Colts was easy, picking them this week against the terrible Dolphins is even easier. The Dolphins have so many holes in their offensive attack, I don’t know where to start. Is it with their complete lack of a rushing attack or even proper blocking? Is it with Henne and his inability to pick up defensive changes and blitzes? Whatever Ricky Williams was giving those guys in-between games is gone, and they are just flat sucking. After losing to the Bungles, the Browns quickly rebounded though and McCoy is finding some sweet brown rhythm with his receivers. I’d look for Hillis to have a huge day running against the Dolphins this weekend. Browns to win.

Denver at Tennessee Line: -4.5
What’s up with the Titans? One week they get beat by hapless Jacksonville, the next week they upset the Ravens? Did you see that one coming? Hasslebeck found a definite groove with Kenny Britt down the sidelines, that’s for sure. So now they welcome Denver to town, who finally allowed Tim Tebow to come into the game – at slot receiver. Really, it’s almost time for him to come in at QB. But it’s going to take a couple more losses for the TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW chants to hold any weight with the coaching staff. This week though, should add to that loss column as the Titans may just be better than we thought in week one. Titans to win at home.

Detroit at Minnesota Line: +4.0
Of one prediction I am glad is coming true, it’s the Lions. They are just killing it. They really haven’t had a solid challenge though, with only the Bucs and Chiefs in their rear view. I’m waiting for when they play Green Bay – in Green Bay. Then we’ll see if they are for real. For now, they’ll have to settle for the Vikings. I’m surprised they are only four point favorites, because their offense has been outstanding lately. Stafford is showing great poise and leadership, and it helps that the defense is doing their part as well. Honestly, this is a playoff team right now. Keep it up Detroit. My fantasy team is stacked with Detroit players. Detroit to win. With the points.

Houston at New Orleans Line: -5.5
The Texans are killing it right now and with the Colts out of the way already, there is no reason they shouldn’t take the division. Unless they find a way to lose the big games – and this is one of those big games. Arian Foster being out hasn’t affected the Texans offense too much, besides slowed down the run game, but when you have receivers like Andre Johnson, who needs a run game? Flat out, the Texans have to be 100% on defense in order to beat the Saints. Give one inch to the downhill running of Sproles or the play calling of Sean Peyton and they may as well give up the game. I’m taking the Saints to win this game at home though, as much as I want to give it to the Texans, the Saints offense is going to be a bit too much for the Texans secondary.

New York at Philadelphia Line: -0.0
Both NFC East games have zero lines. That’s how close, and how crappy this division is. Everyone else might say it’s cause this division is that good, and there will be one playoff team to come out of it, but they won’t make it past the first round. The Giants, after getting lucky on Monday night against the Rams, Eli really played like crap, visit Philly to take on Vick. You already know what I think of Vick. I think he’s a fraud. Mistakes will cost him against the Giants defense, who have proven that they are a heads-up defense. Pressuring Vick won’t be enough, they have to force turnovers in the secondary. That is, if Vick even plays after suffering a concussion. That being said, I’m taking the Giants in this game because, well, I don’t know. Just am. Deal.

Jacksonville at Carolina Line: -3.5
Cam Newton is on pace for like 6,000 yards this season, Brady on pace for about 7,000. So how is it that Newton has passed for over 400 yards in both games this season, yet is 0-2? How is it that he’s passed for that many yards? Here’s why all QB’s are finding their receivers wide open more often – there was no offseason. A lot of teams have new players in DB and Safety positions and there was no offseason for them to train on coverage and gel. They are doing that now. Newton isn’t a god, he’s just throwing into crappy coverage. Plus, the Carolina running game is shit. Stewart isn’t getting through the line because the run blocking stinks. So Cam is getting more passing plays, and more deep passing plays. Of course, he’s also got a few interceptions as well. He’s human. He makes mistakes. He’s good though, can read defenses and leads his team. Now if he can only lead them to a win. This could be his week as the Jags come to town. I think this is where Cam ekes out his first win. Cats to win.

NY Jets at Oakland Line: +3.5
Oakland looks like they could actually be for real this year. I mean, compared to previous years in which they sucked balls. They played Buffalo to the end last week, never giving up but I don’t think their defense is where it should be just yet. And they are going to need defense against the Jets, who also come strong with defense. I don’t really see the Jets losing this game. While Sanchez isn’t quite an elite QB just yet, he’s got a good thing going with his tight ends and running backs. He knows how to throw the slant and toss, it’s the deep ball he needs to work on. Over the shoulder Mark, over the shoulder. However, shouldn’t be an issue against the Raiders. Jets to win.

Baltimore at St. Louis Line: -3.5
An injured QB, Stephen Jackson sidelined, the Rams are not starting the season off as they would like. Hey, how about next year you draft some fucking offensive linemen who can block for more than a split second? And Carnell Williams, you silly mother fucker. Dead ball or not, how about you don’t stand there like a statue and you get that fucking ball? Needless to say, the Ravens are going to come into St. Louis with a serious axe to grind. They lost last week, to the Titans, and probably aren’t taking that very lightly. Doubtful they’ll repeat that weak ass performance. The Ravens front D-line will be too much for the Rams O-line. Run Bradford! Run! Ravens to win on the road. And the Rams are favored! Put some money on this one.

Kansas City at San Diego Line: -15.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!
Here’s why this is my crapfest game of the week. As good as Rivers is, is as bad as the Chiefs are right now. Have they even scored a touchdown this season? Fans in KC probably wish they could chant for Tebow at this point. And now, with Johnson out for the season, the Chiefs are hurting. The Chargers offense is going to be too much for the Chiefs defense and the Chiefs offense is nonexistent. You’ll see a double digit deficit by the end of the first quarter in this one. Bolts to win at home. And hell, with the points.

Green Bay at Chicago Line: +4.0
There is something suspect about the Packers, I just can’t figure out what it is. While they haven’t exactly shored up a consistent running game, Aaron Rodgers seems to handle the play action pretty damn well and the Packers continue to rack up the score. The Bears are in for a fight, but they are a scrappy team. The key will be pushing Forte through the line and avoiding the sack power of the high pressure Green Bay linebacker core. Green Bay special teams have also been on point so far this year, so expect them to chase Hester down – who has a penchant for fumbling on receptions this year (not on returns.) Anyway, I’m sticking with the Packers for now, so taking them to win this great NFC match-up.

Arizona at Seattle Line: +3.0
Kolb isn’t doing too bad in Arizona, going for 251 yards in the air last week, 300 the week before. I’d say Seattle would be the true test, but that’s bullshit. Seattle is still trying to find their ground after pistol whipped by the Niners then the Steelers. However, Rice could be back in the game on Sunday, which may help Tavaris Jackson get rid of the ball on the out routes. Also, Carroll probably spent the week yelling at safeties who let Wallace and the other Steelers receivers run hog wild open all over the field last week. Who are we kidding? The Seahawks will be lucky if they win three games this year. This one ain’t it. Cardinals on the road.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay Line: -1.0
The Bucs have been showing that they have some fourth quarter spunk, making a run at the Lions then coming back to beat the Vikings. That won’t work against the Falcons, they have to come strong out of the gate to get on top of Matt Ryan and crew. I don’t think they’ll be able to though. If there is one secondary that is clicking this year, it’s the Falcons secondary. The Bucs defense showed some serious spark against the Vikings, but that was the Vikings. The Falcons though, have got to be able to open up the field against the Bucs and run their defense ragged. I think with the appropriate amount of pressure on young Freeman, the Falcons will prevail. Falcons to win.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis Line: +11.0
There is a rumor swirling on the internetwebs that the Colts are making phone calls to a one Brett Favre. Are you fucking kidding me? The Colts are following up one bad QB decision with another one. Listen, here’s what you do – give the ball to Painter. Or, if you really want to spend the fucking money, pay off the Bungles and get Carson Palmer. It’ll cost the same as wooing old man Brett out of retirement. Don’t do it. Don’t be that team. That being said, they’ll lose to the Steelers. Do I even need to say why? I don’t think so. If Ben is on your fantasy team, start him. Steelers to win.

Washington at Dallas Line: -0.0
And then we come to the Monday night game. I’ve already handed out my crapfest of the week, but this isn’t it. Wow. Tell you what Dallas, I’ll trade you. This candy bar for Tony Romo, cause if you throw either of them in the pool – they look like shit. The Cowboys won last week because the Niners fucked up – NOT because the Cowboys played well. That being said, the Redskins have actually been playing well, so I’m giving this contest to them. Redskins to win, on the road, in Dallas, sinking Romo.

Tags: cam newton, defense, nfl, Packers, Patriots, Predictions, Tebow, Tom Brady, week 3
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