Posts About ‘niners’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Superbowl XLVII

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

Well, this is it kids. The final NFL column of the season here at Digital Dads. While there is plenty that happens during the offseason (like where Tebow will end up) it’s not worth writing about until next season, as I don’t paid like all those know-it-alls at ESPN and CBS Sports. That being said, I do have a couple post-season predictions that I’d like to get out of the way.

First is that Alex Smith will end up in Arizona. The Niners have already said they aren’t bringing him back next season, so he’ll be taking his talents elsewhere. I’m thinking he’ll stay in the division. I think Vick will be playing for Jets, Sanchez will be backing up somewhere, maybe starting in Oakland, and Tebow will land in Jacksonville. Aside from that, I expect that there won’t be any surprises in the draft, besides who takes Manti Te’o and his imaginary girlfriend. The kid can play, I hope this doesn’t prevent him from going in the first round.

Then, days before the Superbowl it comes out that Ray Lewis was using performance enhancing drugs. There’s a fucking surprise. I wonder if it was cause God told him to? The guy drags God into every other conversation, so clearly God must have sanctioned this as well. Either way, a sore point going into the Harbaugh bowl.

Baltimore at San Francisco – February 3, 2013, 6:30 PM ET – 47.0 O/U -3.5

At first, this was easy for me in my head. I picked the Niners and I’ve been picking them solid all week. I even predicted a Harbaugh bowl a year ago. But then I started looking at the teams and specifically their last couple of wins. The Niners beat a struggling Packers team, then beat the Falcons – probably their strongest opponent in the last month of the season, but certainly with their own issues. It was a defensive stand that gave them the win there, and was impressive. Yet, the Ravens solidly beat a very good Denver team and Peyton Manning on the road, then beat Tom Brady on the road as well. Flacco was outstanding in both games, hitting his stride late and making those deep passes.

The threat of Kaepernik running the read option is there, but the Falcons showed that you can bottle that up. Gore took over the running load, but that wasn’t enough to beat the Falcons. Came down to defense. I think the Ravens defensive game plan will take the read option into consideration. I also think that the Niners receivers will be shut down by the Ravens corners, who have stepped up in the last couple weeks (if you can stop Welker from catching a ball, you can stop anyone.) They hit hard, and that rattles receivers with fear.

As for the Niners defense, they don’t have a read option to worry about, just being able to stop Ray Rice from winding a path through the gauntlet. The Niners defense needs to quickly pressure Flacco. Giving him time to throw the ball down field will not end well for them. I think they apply pressure, but Rice is right there to get the outlet pass and run away. The running game should be interesting. And I’m tired of the argument against defense winning championships. Both these teams are top defensive teams and the Niners got here because of a defensive play. Defense wins championships.

I expect a mid range scoring game, 24-23 final score with the Ravens on top. Look, I think the Niners are a great, young team and will be right back in the big game soon. I just don’t think it’s going to be this year. Also, Randy Moss, shut the hell up. You are no Jerry Rice. See you next season.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Championship Round

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Well, I was right on about every game last week – except for Denver. That’s three out of four again. Look, the Broncos should have won that game – just like the Colts should have won the week before. Except the Broncos really fucked up. They had the single worst defensive play of the season when they gave up that TD with 30 seconds to go. Where did you think the pass was going to go? Why was a safety not standing on the goal line? They fucked that up, then in OT Peyton got pushed around and finally made a fatal error. I opined last week about Peyton’s ability to play in cold weather in the playoffs, and while I picked him to win I kind of knew that he wasn’t going to.

Both the Patriots and the Niners dominated, but only the Niners looked like a playoff team. Harbaugh held that read option look until the playoffs and it worked. The Falcons might be prepared for it, but I doubt that they’ll be fully prepared for it. The Packers are struggling lately in the playoffs, and that game made a strong case for the importance of a running game in a pass heavy league. They couldn’t establish a play action. Meanwhile the Patriots just keep scoring, no matter who Brady is throwing to. Doesn’t matter. While Joe Montana might have had Jerry Rice all those years, Brady doesn’t need just one guy, he can make any guy a star.

So this is the second to last column of the year, then a hiatus until the season kicks back up again. So you should be full of sadness. Me, I’m going to go cuddle with my guns before they are taken away. Just kidding. I don’t cuddle.

San Francisco at Atlanta – January 20, 2013, 3:00 PM ET +3.0 49.0 O/U
The first game kicks off in the Georgia Dome, which sucks for the Niners. I think they have that energy at home which really helps the team and Atlanta gets super lucky at home. Like last week, when they nearly gave the game away and just beat the Seahawks. Frankly, I’d love to pick the Falcons to win this game and I think they can, and might. But I have to put more value on Colin Kaepernik than one should put on a human being. The guy is a good pocket passer, has the patience of a veteran and makes RGIII look like a chicken with his head cut off. Whether it’s a designed run or a snap decision, the kid has his head on straight. Now, Harbaugh busted out the read option against the Packers who have no run defense and play a classic smash on the line. The Falcons also play a smash, but in preparing for either the Seahawks or Redskins with that week off, they prepared for a running QB. Their secondary just didn’t prepare for the deep ball. So that’s what it comes down to, if the Falcons can contain Kaepernik, and I don’t think they do. At least not for a whole game. He won’t peel off 181 against them, but he’ll get a couple runs, extending plays. For that, I’m taking the Niners to just edge out the Falcons, though I wouldn’t mind being proven wrong.

Baltimore at New England – January 20, 2013, 6:30 PM ET -8.5 51.0 O/U
In this rematch of last years AFC Championship game, not much has changed. Of course the Patriots are favored, but the Ravens are playing with some sort of fire, and you can credit Ray Lewis for that. The now cyborg ex-con is a locker room preacher and gets a team fired up. Joe Flacco, who played amazing last week to little or no fanfare, is still the key to the offense. The kid has a fantastic arm and uses it. The Patriots secondary will not be able to stop the deep ball, and this game will certainly come down to who can score the most points. The Patriots front seven and the defense will have to be on the ball this week, no flip flopping like they’ve done all season. Belichick always finds a way to win, or at least compete in these types of games. The real key for the Pats though is Welker. If he can continue to David Copperfield opponents, then a win is nearly guaranteed. I’m not too worried about Gronk being out, as Hernandez can carry that load and there will be plenty of tricks up the sleeve of the Hoodie. Patriots to win.

Now, for your entertainment, Bad Lip Reading does the NFL. Hilarious!

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 15

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

Not to brag too much, but I picked two big upsets last week, the Chargers over the Steelers and the Redskins over the Ravens. Now, I don’t think I can do it again this week because I also missed some picks last week that made sense to me, liking picking the Eagles and Jets to lose. Those wins made sure that the coaches and quarterbacks in question have jobs next year, securing their place in mediocrity for at least another year. So enjoy that Eagles and Jets fans!

Week 15 means fantasy playoffs are in full swing, which means that if you are basing start/sit decisions on this column, you are out of your fucking mind. Though, some of these match-ups bode well for some fantasy players. I’ve got to decide if I want to play Matt Ryan or Andy Dalton, one at home against a strong defense, and one on the road against a shitty defense. Flip a coin. I think on the fantasy team that has AJ Green, I play Dalton, the one that has Gonzalez, I play Ryan. Yes, I have two fantasy teams in the playoffs. Go me.

With only three games left in the season, there is still a lot of clinching to be done. Last week sucked for a lot of teams, such as the Ravens, who needed to win to either clinch divisions or playoffs. The losses opened the door for other teams, though I’m really disappointed by the Bengals loss as they are the team I picked to make a strong run to the playoffs. Many teams are not mathematically out, though this week should tie up all those loose playoff ends. So let’s see who the winners and losers are going to be…

Cincinnati at Philadelphia +4.0
In a year where everyone is talking about rookie QB’s RGIII, Wilson, Tannehill and Luck, no one has mentioned Foles at all – until now. The rookie QB has replaced Vick for the rest of the season, and already has two wins. He’s not a master at the game, and runs really slow, but he may just be what this struggling franchise and Andy Reid need. A win this week would be huge. However, after a shitty loss to the Cowboys, the Bengals need to win. The Eagles could play spoiler, but I don’t think they do. Bengals to win.

New York at Atlanta -1.0
This game is huge – for me. And for the Giants who need to win to keep the Redskins and Cowboys at bay. A win here and both those other teams losing clinches and sends the Giants back to the playoffs. A loss here and both those teams have a chance to steal the division. Getting wild. Meanwhile, Atlanta got the fuck off Carolina’s field last week, after getting trounced. Since they have clinched division and playoffs, have they gotten complacent? The defense seemed to be coasting last week, they’ll need to be on their best behavior this week. This game could be tight, but for the sake of the dome and the fact Eli can’t run like Newton, I’m taking the Falcons. If they don’t win, then they really can’t close out the big games.

Green Bay at Chicago +3.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!
The NFC North is probably the best battleground in football when these two teams are playing at a high level. Rodgers is the definition of an elite QB, and he had some big shoes to fill. Chicago needs this win to continue to fight for the division, at only one game behind. There was a point where it looked like Chicago would be dominating this division for the entire year, but at some point they faltered. Directly related to Cutler going out of the game last week. Cutler should be back this week, so this should be a great snow battle. I’m taking the Packers to win, just cause.

Washington at Cleveland -0.0
Interesting zero line on this game after the Redskins upset the Ravens in overtime. Could this have anything to do with yet another rookie, Cousins, getting to start due to RGIII’s minor knee injury? Possibly. Also, if RGIII was your fantasy QB, Cousins might be an okay pick, if the Cleveland defense is sleeping. But three straight wins and a crappy AFC have actually kept the Browns mathematically in the playoff race. Seriously. If the Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, Chargers and Bills continue to lose and the Browns win out, then it’s possible. The Browns defense has been playing solid football, and the offense is starting to show some serious life. I’m gunning for the Browns at home this week, so I’m picking them.

Minnesota at St. Louis -2.5
Also still in the hunt are the Vikings, who visit a Rams team still stoked over a late win against the Bills, after an OT win against the Niners. The Rams receiving core have been awesome, so it’s up to the corners of the Vikings to shut them out. It really doesn’t matter though. Hand Peterson the ball 25-35 times, win the game. Done. But wait, the Rams held Frank Gore to 58 yards, can they contain Peterson? I smell upset, so I’m picking it. Rams to upset. Oh wait, the Rams are favored. So, Rams to win.

Jacksonville at Miami -7.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
While Miami is technically not ruled out for the playoffs, at 5-8 they may as well be. The Jags are depressing. They sold out this past weekend because Tim Tebow was standing on the sidelines. Imagine if they had actually signed the guy, they’d sell out every game and maybe have more than two wins. Ugh. Miami to win.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans -4.5
The Bucs blew it last week, they really did. Against a struggling Eagles team they managed to give it up in the end, and got seriously fucked. Now, at 6-7 instead of 7-6, the hill to climb to the playoffs is nearly insurmountable. Plus, they have to play in the Superdome this week against a team that just got unsuspended. No more bountygate, no more stress around that situation. The Saints will be playing revitalized and ready to fuck shit up. Saints to win.

Denver at Baltimore +2.5
Denver is their division winner already. The Ravens, at 9-4 are not. They have to win this week in order to clinch the division. But can they do it against a Denver team that has only lost to top tier teams? Are the Ravens top tier? Not since injuries ravaged their defensive front. While Ray Rice can cut through most lines, the 5th rated rush defense of the Broncos is going to give him problems. And Manning vs. a depleted Ravens secondary? Forget it. The Ravens are giving up major yards in the secondary. Just look a what the Redskins managed last week. Gave up nearly 300 yards passing, over 150 rushing. I’m taking the Broncos to win here, giving the Bengals another shot.

Indianapolis at Houston -9.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Indy is going to make the playoffs. The only teams in the AFC with better records are the division leaders. A win here would be significant, but the Colts are huge underdogs. My hope is that they spent this week watching tape of Brady dismantling the Houston secondary. The Colts have a strong offensive line, and can easily open up similar passing lanes for Luck. He’s no Brady – yet, but he can power a game. The Texans meanwhile may already be in playoff mode, which was evident on defense and offense. Their line made the Patriots low ranked defensive front look pretty damn good. Does it happen again this week? Do the Texans lose? I think they do, in overtime. Colts to upset.

Seattle at Buffalo +5.5
The Bills just love throwing away late leads don’t they? What a terrible team right now. Just sad to watch. The Seahawks will follow in the Rams footsteps this week, though wait – even though Pete Carroll pulled his starters in the romp last week, he still kept calling passing plays late in the game to roll up the score. Karma is a bitch Pete. Though lets be serious, no matter how much the football gods influence the game, it won’t be with a loss to the Bills. Hawks to win on the road.

Detroit at Arizona +6.0
The Lions have lost five in a row and finish the season against the Falcons and the Bears. This is their last chance for another win, a fifth win. What a terrible season. They haven’t been plagued by injury, instead they’ve been plagued by a coach who can’t manage certain defensive players who act like spoiled little bastards and haven’t done anything special besides kick people in the nuts and draw attention to themselves. Lacking a serious running game, unable to get Johnson out of double coverage (yet, he still might get the receiving record) the Lions have been shit. This week they win, only cause if they are shit, Arizona is whatever they are shitting in.

Carolina at San Diego -3.0
Another team mathematically still in it are the Chargers, but let’s be real here. Even with a win over the Steelers, the Chargers are still not going to make the playoffs. The thing is, with that win, Norv Turner will most likely get to keep his job. Thanks to some great receiver play from Alexander and Rivers actually looking all grown-up and shit. However, the Chargers welcome the unpredictable Panthers to town, who at 4-9 have nothing to lose by going batshit down the stretch. Big runs from Cam, big passes as well. Panthers to upset.

Pittsburgh at Dallas +1.0
This is an interesting game, like the schedule was written with knowledge of the future. Both teams at 7-6, both teams coming off a surprising game, one which saw a home loss and one which saw a road upset. The Cowboys, at home, are pretty terrible, but Romo shows those signs of greatness. With Dez Bryant out and a running game that is nearly non-existent this season, the Cowboys will have a tough time against the Steelers corners. Big Ben is back, probably wearing a shit ton of body armor, limiting mobility. I’m taking the Cowboys to win here, not sure why, just a gut feeling.

Kansas City at Oakland -1.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!! #2
Five wins combined, turnover city for both teams… yeah, who gives a shit. Oakland fans, are you as disappointed as KC fans? You should be. What a dump.

San Francisco at New England -3.0
Is there any question the Patriots have the best offense in the league? And their defense didn’t look too shabby holding the Texans to 14 points on Monday night. Now another night game against another supposedly elite team. The Niners want to win if they want to keep the Seahawks at bay. But an away game, in the possible snow, no way – the Patriots got this one man. I like that Kaepernick kid, but I don’t think it was wise to just bench Smith for no reason, that kid can win too. I think they’ll need his experience against the Pats. Regardless, the Pats score at will, so Pats to win. By more than three.

NY Jets at Tennessee -1.0
And finally this week we come to the 4-9 Titans at home against a Jets team that just can’t seem to go away. They don’t completely suck, but they have certain moments of suck. Which team am I talking about? Both of them. The Titans win, Johnson finally runs for 200 yards, 2 touchdowns and Jake Locker goes for 400 in the air. Final score, 56-12.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: NFC West Preview

Tuesday, August 21st, 2012

Here’s what I’m seeing so far in preseason football. I’m seeing a lot of sloppy tackling, players appear to be afraid to inadvertently hurt someone or get hurt themselves. I’m seeing announcers call games and the bobble heads acting like this is the regular season, where it’s still just preseason. The mistakes made now are quite different than the ones made during game situations. Right now, QB’s will take a sack from a guy brushing past them, rather than get smashed. Preseason football is a different game than regular season football.

Meanwhile, out in the NFC West, magic is happening. Just kidding. This is still my least favorite division, consistently producing mediocre division winners and making the rest of the league look freaking fantastic by comparison. The bobble heads are saying that the Rams might be a beacon of hope this season or some shit, but I highly doubt it. All four of these losers are gonna suck again, but hell, I gotta do this anyway. If you are a fan of any of these teams, speak up, cause it’s gonna be a long fucking season.

NFC West

San Francisco 49′ers
Did Alex Smith have a banner year last year or what? What’s that? The Niners finished 29th in passing offense? How’s that possible with Smith having such a great year? Oh how the world of the NFL confuses me! Listen, Smith tossed a mere 17 TD passes and only 5 interceptions. It’s easy to have a good year if you never throw the fucking ball. Well, now he’s got Mario Manningham and Randy Moss (Randy Moss?) to throw to along with Crabtree and Davis. Not to mention adding Brandon Jacobs to the backfield, who can handle the pitch and run.

I love Jim Harbaugh coaching this team. Like a serious man crush on the guy. After a few negative coaching experiences, I think winning the division this year will be a good deal for a long team contract, especially if they hit that NFC title game again. I thought we were going to see them in the playoffs. The key to getting that far, and a spot that I think the Niners will be just fine on this year as well, was run defense. Teams just couldn’t run against the Niners, which made the field easier to cover. That should continue this year.

The Niners are probably carrying the best defensive squad in the league as far as stopping scoring. I dunno how they’ll fare on takeaways, but who cares if you are securely in the lead because the other team hasn’t scored? I guess that’s the question mark. We know Crabtree is a little bitch, and now Randy Moss brings his crazy to the party. Will they mesh? Probably. Moss knows he’s lucky to still have a place on a roster, so he’ll quietly not complain about getting passes. Yeah right.

Projected Finish: 11-5

Arizona Cardinals
What the fuck ever! Certain sports websites have the Cardinals finishing the season at 10-6. Are you fucking kidding me? Do they know that the quarterback choices are the amazing Kevin Kolb and the lights out John Skelton. Oh wait, those are adjectives reserved for QB’s who aren’t surrounded by suck. I mean, you can’t play the Seahawks and Rams more than four times a season. Sure. I love Fitzgerald, Beanie Wells is hot and Michael Floyd is a good pick-up in the draft… this paragraph is too long.

Patrick Peterson and Adrian Wilson are great defensive players. The addition of William Gay there is going to help this secondary become second to none against some of the premier wide receivers in the league. And I’ll give Wisenhunt some credit, the guy tends to work well with what he’s got in front of him. He’s just got to get more production from his offense and specifically – the offensive line. Have you noticed a trend in the NFL lately? Especially with team with shaky offenses? Bad offensive line play. How do teams fix that?

Teams fix that with coaching and not putting rookies on the ends. Rookies have no freaking idea what it is like to block a professional linebacker. The key for the Cardinals is going to be the defense though, that’s where they are going to win games and that is where they are going to lose games. This team is probably the best in the NFC West, but because I see the Niners offense being much more productive, I don’t have them winning the division.

Projected Finish: 9-7

Seattle Seahawks
When there is a QB battle in camp, and your choices are Matt Flynn or Tavaris Jackson, that just screams “mediocre season.” Listen, the Seahawks haven’t been impressive to me since they lost to the Steelers in a Superbowl they had no business being in. Since then, they have run a few surprises, but they really haven’t been an impressive West Coast offense kind of team. Pete Carroll doesn’t really scream “winner” in the NFL. Sorry buddy, but USC was stacked and the Pac 10 blows ass. Try that shit in the SEC.

So, the highlight on this team is the defensive secondary. Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are two of the best when it comes to man coverage and help boslter a young defense. Sidney Rice has some new screws in his shoulder, and should give the defense some confidence when he scores touchdown after touchdown. Of course, he’ll have to literally run up and take the ball from either Jackson or Flynn. You see, Flynn did well his one start in Green Bay because of the offensive line. No such luck in Seattle.

So what about Lynch? I think he’s slowing down. He’s close to that 30 year old limit for running backs, he’s got no explosive game changing left in him. I could be wrong, but I think we’ll see rookie Robert Turbin getting some early in the season carries. It’s time to start grooming the next guy, brainwashing him to stay in the NFC West.

Projected Finish: 7-9

St. Louis Rams
I’m not going to sit here and spout lies at you. I had high hopes for the Rams last…. hahahaha. Just kidding. I knew they were going to suck. This year, the big change is Jeff Fisher coming out of retirement to lead the rams to what? Victory? Maybe a few times. The defensive minded coach also brought in Brian Shottenheimer to help on offense and Dave McGinnis as defensive coordinator. All these fun changes, what remains the same? Well, pretty much everything else.

Bradford is sadly still developing as a QB. If he played for the Browns, he’d have been replaced sixteen times already. Lucky him, he plays for the Rams. Here’s the deal though, with Stephen Jackson in the backfield, and healthy it appears, the Rams under Fisher might have a better chance at playing some ground and pound smash mouth football, but Bradford has got to move around in the pocket better. He’s still not going to have much of an offensive line and needs to adjust, which means move his feet instead of taking sacks.

The best offseason move is Cortland Finnegan coming in at CB. The Rams secondary is nothing to scoff at, as that is one area of the team where the suck is a little bit less, but I really like this move. Finnegan brings that backfield swagger that this team sorely needs. The Rams defense, even with Finnegan, is going to be a sore point for this team though. Their rush defense is terrible. I’m just hoping the Rams won’t be as ugly to watch as they were last year.

Projected Finish: 5-11

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Championship Weekend

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Niners vs. Giants. Should be a new classic.

I’m not going to bore you with mindless statistics and blather. The fact is that last week was a tough week to pick and statistics did not lie. 75% of the home teams won, but not the 75% I picked. By the time the Giants v Packers game started, three home teams had won. So I loudly declared to pretty much one person that the Giants were going to win the game. They did, and the Packers, who had a monumental season all for naught, are done. Now we have four teams left and picking the winners is toughest it’s been all season.

That being said, it is only two games so I have to fill up this space with something. So in personal news, I’ll be in Chicago this week (Friday – Sunday) attending a Kenmore event at their bequest. If you are around, or just on Twitter, come hang out downtown Chicago. CC will be there with me as well, killing some deep dish. On with the picks!

AFC Championship: Baltimore at New England
Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
Line: 50.0 O/U -7.5

This game is the proof – does defense win championships? The Patriots have a bottom ranked defense, yet they sure came alive against the Broncos – but the Broncos defense was also terrible, so there’s that. The Patriots have won games with offense all year long, and I don’t expect that strategy to totally turn around in a week. They are going to come into this game firing and looking to rack up the score against the defensive minded Ravens. It’s not going to happen. The Ravens held the Texans, who in effect – held the Ravens. The Ravens offensive line didn’t perform as well as they should have, but really have nothing to worry about with the weak pass rush of the Patriots. Sure, they managed to fluster Tebow a couple times, but that was a fluke. Most of the time he had all day and then some to throw. The Ravens are going to force the Patriots hand on offense, as their defense will be swarming Brady and throwing off his timing. This is what I said the Broncos needed to do, but failed to do. Everything about the Patriots offense is timing, especially with the routes run by the tight ends. On the offensive side of the ball for the Ravens, they’ll have to tighten up their protection a bit and re-establish the running game, which should be easy against the Patriots poor run defense. Bottom line, the Patriots don’t have the defense to stop the Ravens mediocre offense, and they might have a powerful offense, but defense wins championships. Bottom line. On championship weekend the statistics state that 50% of the home teams win. So in this one, I’m taking the Ravens to overcome and get into the Superbowl, against (obviously) the Niners, and I’ll tell you why in the next paragraph.

NFC Championship: New York at San Francisco
Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
Line: 44.0 O/U -2.0

Everyone loves the Giants in this game, because they can’t believe that the Niners are restoring their franchise to glory. Where Singletary coached with negative enforcement, Harbaugh coaches with positive reinforcement, something that was evident in Vernon Davis’ tears and hug after he scored the winning touchdown last week. That was the Saints game to lose, and they made sure to lose, especially on that last drive when their secondary seemed to forget they were still playing a game and gave the Niners the whole field. So now the Niners welcome the hot and cold Giants to town, who turn it on when they need to. And they needed to last week and they damn sure did. They ran the Packers right off their own field, dominating on offense and on defense. They made it look easy. Part of that might have been the Packers offense not playing up to par with all the drops, but the pressure on Rodgers helped as well. Against the Niners, they are going up against probably the best fundamental defense in the league. Rather than go for the flashy Sportscenter play, the Niners just plain cover and tackle well. They bump receivers at the line to throw off timing, they get the pressure on with their front four, rarely running a crazy eight man blitz and almost always win the turnover game. Their defense will stifle Manning and his receivers, so the Giants will have to rely on their own defense. They might have a slight edge over the Niners offense in that case, but Alex Smith is a legit playmaker, but he gets no love for it. Right now, his report with his receivers is the best it’s ever been. I’m taking the Niners to win at home, and for this game to become a new classic. Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh in the Superbowl. You want to know who I’m going to pick to win that game? You’ll have to wait two weeks.

Next week: Pro Bowl Idiocy and where I went wrong with my pre-season picks.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Doesn't matter who wins. They'll lose to the Packers anyway.

Only four weeks left in the NFL season. The first of many tears has already started to fall from my baby blue eyes. Not just because the NFL is going to be done soon, but because I have to put up with constant NBA highlights. I was really hoping that the NBA would not be coming back, but it is. At least there is hockey and baseball starts in April. I’m thinking too far ahead. For now, we still have four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs to get through. Which means I have a column of picks to write.

Last week I didn’t do fabulous, but it was a positive week. I’m 63% on the season, which is pretty good but not as good as I want. Time to buck up and really think about these picks. Or not think about these picks. I doubt all the people at work who do better than me on their picks every other week really do much analysis. Maybe I over analyze. I have no idea. That takes too much thought to determine if I’m applying too much thought.

In more personal news, I’m currently looking for strong freelance or even part-time(ish) for hire gigs. Writing, editing, content producing, whatever. So you have a need or know someone who does, please have them contact me. That was a link. Directly to email. That’s how I roll. I’m open to anything, anywhere, any bat channel, any bat time. Enough of that, on with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at Dallas Line: -3.5
The 6-6 Giants roll in to face the 7-5 Cowboys in their first meeting this season (can you believe that?) The table for this dinner isn’t set yet, since they still have to play again in week 17. Basically it’s like this, the winner of this series is the one that makes the playoffs from this division. I’m guessing both of these teams finish 10-6. Which means what for this prediction? It means that the Giants win this week and Dallas wins the next match-up in New York? I guess that’s what it means. Which means divisional record is the tie breaker. At the beginning of the season I picked the Cowboys to win the division, and I’m sticking with that. However, I think they way the Giants played against the Packers and all season is much more impressive than the Cowboys. To this point, and this week – the Giants win. Needless to say, I’ll probably be picking the Cowboys in week 17. Giants on the road by a field goal or less.

 

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: -14.0
For some reason I picked Cleveland last week. As a lifelong Browns fan I should have known better that even at home, they weren’t going to beat their former incarnation in the Ravens. Instead, they got pistol whipped like they were wandering the streets of Cincinnati. The Ravens worked them in every aspect of the game, there were no bright points. It was sad. It’ll be even sadder this week as they visit Pittsburgh. Traditionally, the Steeler vs. Browns match-up is a good game, but there is so much disparity between these two teams over the last couple years that there is no doubt that the Steelers will dominate the Browns. After watching the Steelers run, pass and score at will against the Bengals last week, the Browns don’t stand a chance. Steelers at home.

Houston at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Texans are continuously overcoming serious injuries to keep in the game for the playoffs. They have the Titans to watch for, at only two games behind, but they are playing pretty well considering. Yates isn’t terrible and held it together after Johnson was sidelined again this season. The victory over the Falcons was a win for the defense as well, missing Mario Williams. In a year this defense (overall) went from 30th to second. Good job Wade Phillips. The Bengals, while still looking average on both sides of the ball, couldn’t get past the true division test in the Steelers and Ravens. They’ll miss the playoffs. But the Dalton to Green connection is getting exciting to watch. I’m down with that for the future. I think Houston rolls in this week and pulls off a mild upset to secure their spot in the playoffs. Houston on the road.

Minnesota at Detroit Line: -0.0
The downfall of the Lions has almost been as exciting to watch as their surprise start to the season. Schwartz doesn’t seem to care that his team (even without Suh) is committing penalty after penalty, a lot of them in the area of personal fouls. Morons. Their drubbing by the Saints knocked them off the shelf of elite teams for good this season. They really can’t turn it around. The Saints showed that simple double coverage on Megatron really mucks up the offense. Minnesota has a competent defense and I think they can do the same. Losing last week to the Denver Tebows was tough, but the offense turned the ball over at some crucial moments. This should be an interesting game, and I think that if Detroit keeps up it’s penalty ridden ways, the Vikings win this game. Otherwise the Lions win. Do I have to pick a winner with a zero line? Fine. Detroit at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee Line: +4.0
The Titans aren’t out the playoff hunt yet, but they are hoping they continue to be underestimated. Now that CJ2K is finally finding the holes to punch through, they have stepped up their game a notch. 153 yards and two TD’s against Buffalo, and a week before also racking up huge yards it’s undeniable that Johnson is back. Hasselbeck is playing better, finding targets but still managing to throw it to the defense every once in a while. Finding those holes against the Saints defense might prove to be difficult, and they’ll need to if they hope to keep up with the offense. I’m taking the Saints in this game just cause they are the much better team, but I expect the Titans to make it interesting.

Philadelphia at Miami Line: -3.0
Aside from the Lions the other most exciting collapse to watch is that of the Eagles. McCoy is having a great season on the ground, but it doesn’t matter. Vince Young throws interception after interception and Vick can never get the game moving like he promised. It’s a disaster in Philly. Will Andy Reid be out of a job at the end of the season even considering his winning history with the team? Vick was a mistake. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, previously undrafted, will have every right to ask for a nice new contract at the end of the season, regardless of the coach. Assuming he keeps winning. They could finish 8-8, which considering their start would be great for the Dolphins. Reggie Bush has found new life in Miami and I think the Philly defense doesn’t put the brakes on the Dolphins winning ways. Fins to win at home.

Kansas City at NY Jets Line: -9.0
A 38 yard hail mary mixed in with terrible offense, terrible defense and a non-existent running game created a win. An improbable win, but a win and a loss for the Bears. The Chiefs are treading water, with no chance at a winning season and just a sad, sad year. The Jets shouldn’t have a problem with the visiting team this week, since unlike the Bears their team is more than just two guys. Of course, the Jets are the kings of week to week inconsistency on defense and offense, but if even one of those sides sparks just a bit, the win should come easy. Jets to win at home.

New England at Washington Line: +9.0
The difference between the Packers defense and the Patriots defense is turnover margin. While both allow a good chunk of scoring, the Packers defense forces a lot of turnovers that result, either directly or indirectly (in the hands of the offense) in points. The Patriots defense is horrid, making the Colts look moderately good in the passing game last week. This is going to cost them in the playoffs, when they have to face teams like the Ravens or Steelers that can easily take advantage of those defensive holes. I think even Washington this week takes advantage and keeps the game close. while they lost their shoes to the Jets, for the first half of the game they looked like they were in it. Obviously, Patriots to win these week, but they don’t make it look easy.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +3.0
Cam Newton, rookie of the year? That’s the consideration, though wouldn’t the biggest an impact a player could have on a team be winning? He’s doing a little bit of that, but the best that the Panthers can hope for is a third place finish in the division. The future looks bright for this team and if they can beat Atlanta this week, perhaps the immediate future will look real bright. The Falcons lost against Houston with the inability to run against that defense and a late penalty killed the tying drive. The Panthers don’t have that strong of a defense, and while they whipped up on the Bucs last week, that was the Bucs. Look for the Panthers to come out on all cylinders, but the Falcons to prevail late or in overtime. Falcons to win.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Chance are that wherever you are in the country this game will be blacked out, thank your lucky stars for that. The Jaguars seemed like they could get something together after inexplicably beating the Ravens but never did. Getting whupped by the Chargers on Monday night was just another nail in the coffin for Del Rio. What? Del Rio is already gone? Oh. Yeah. MJD will run all over the Bucs. This is the point in the season where it gets hard to pick game cause the match-ups are either too good, or too shitty to care about. Let’s be analytical here though. The Bucs run defense, as Carolina proved, is shit. That’s the ONE highlight of the Jags. Jags to win at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore Line: -17.0
For a team that competed with the Patriots, a seventeen point line has got to be an insult right? Well, consider that while the Patriots have shitty pass defense, the Ravens have a superior pass and rush defense. Now that Flacco has finally learned to hand the ball to Ray Rice more often, the Ravens are looking unstoppable. I mean, at for the moment. The playoffs could be another issue altogether. The Colts, in their “suck for luck” campaign have some hope in Dan Orlovsky – just kidding. Remember him from the 0-16 Lions? Yeah, that’s probably some bad karma right there. I’d be surprised if Peyton is even on the Colts staff next year and not working the sideline with his brother as a QB coach or something. Ravens to win.

Chicago at Denver Line: -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I realize that this isn’t a true upset special, as the line favors the Broncos – but no one else does. Many of us who have man love for Tim Tebow are rooting for the Broncos, but the haters are just waiting for him to fail. If he makes it to the playoffs (and he will) they’ll be biting their lips waiting to see if he blows it. And if he does (he won’t) they’ll accuse him of not being clutch or whatever. The haters (including Elway) will find a way to bring Tebow down. But he won’t have any of it. It’s not about him, and he’s made that clear. Last week it was about him in the second half though, with 202 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He only rushed four times during the game. Surprised? The Bears will be too. John Fox has done an excellent job adjusting the offense to his QB’s strengths, rather than forcing him to learn a new system mid-season. Coach of the year for sure. Meanwhile, Martz as offensive coordinator for the Bears has done a shitty job adjusting anything for the constantly struggling Caleb Hanie. His “west coast” offense is not eay for a rookie to pick up, much less mid-season. Perhaps Cutler comes back this game, perhaps not but with Forte out for the season most likely – the Bears are done. Doesn’t matter, I was going to pick the Broncos no matter what. Broncos at home.

San Francisco at Arizona Line: +4.0
With a month to go in the season, the Niners have already locked up the division, even though technically Arizona and the Seahawks are in the wild-card hunt (is the NFC that bad this year?) That being said, while Arizona pulled off an improbable victory against the Cowboys, attempting to do that against the Niners is going to be a bit more difficult. The Niners defense is tighter than a… I’ll leave that metaphor to your imagination. The Cardinals won by finding the glaring holes in the Cowboys run defense and because Romo sucks. The Niners keep winning on great defense and killer passing from young Alex Smith who is on his way to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Niners to win.

Oakland at Green Bay Line: -11.5
Meh. The Packers might toy with the Raiders for a little while, letting them score some points. The defense might give up some points, but they can score too. The Raiders have been decimated with injuries and penalties. That ass kicking they took at the hands of the Dolphins also helped them lose their standing in the division. They aren’t out of it yet, but they are this week. The Packers are unstoppable, especially by an inferior team like the Raiders. Should be fun for Palmer, just cause he gets to meet Rodgers, the QB that Palmer could have been had he been just a tad better. Packers to win.

Buffalo at San Diego Line: -7.0
What to say about the Bills? I think the loss of Fred Jackson hurt this team more than previously assumed. Spiller has been carrying the load, and doing alright, but the offense hasn’t been the same. Not to mention the defense suddenly giving up big plays late in the game. Last week against the Titans they gave up tons of yards to CJ2K and while the Chargers don’t have explosive a runner, Tolbert isn’t terrible in the backfield. The question for the Chargers is the consistency, something that hasn’t been there. Breaking a six game losing streak the Chargers now absolutely have to win to think about breaking even for the season. I’m taking the Bills in this game just because I don’t think the Chargers are for real this season. I could be wrong, because the Chargers have “charged” up late in the season in previous seasons, only to fall short come the playoffs. But those charges were contingent on the Broncos losing, which I don’t think they are going to do. Bills to somehow prevail on the road.

St. Louis at Seattle Line: -0.0
Meh. The Rams are nothing short of terrible, and the Seahawks somehow still have a chance at making the playoffs. They beat the Eagles, but so what? The Rams shouldn’t be much of a challenge, but who knows with this team? Taking the home team cause it’s easy. Seahawks at home.

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The shoe cables a repent reward near the visible.