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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 2

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

Terrible first week by my standards. I went a horrible 9-7. I don’t think I’ve done that bad since some time last year. I can’t believe that I picked the Chiefs over the Falcons. What was I thinking in that one? I must have been on drugs or something. I wasn’t, but man my head must not have been in the right place. I did say the Niners could upset, but I picked Green Bay and fuck the Cowboys.

So now that we’ve gotten a regular season look at all the teams (if you have NFL RedZone that is) what do we think? We think that the Niners are going to be near unstoppable, the Panthers looked flat and RGIII was very solid in his debut while the other rookie QB’s were a bag of suck. We learned that Manning didn’t lose a step and the Browns and Bills organizations apparently don’t know that they play football. We also learned that the replacement refs make the same stupid mistakes that the regular refs do, with only some time management issues being the glaring mistakes.

So now we’re on to week 2, which starts tonight as the Bears meet the Packers. That’s not too much rest for either of these teams, so we’ll see how they do. Wait, that bit should be in the prediction. I’m aiming for a better week this week, something in the 11 or 12 win range. So without any further fanfare (unlike an Apple press event) on with the picks!

Chicago at Green Bay -4.0
Well, Brandon Marshall was simply amazing. I really regret not drafting him on my fantasy team. Speaking of that, two out of three fantasy team wins this past weekend. Not too shabby. I’m having a little trouble in the league that scores defensive players individually, as I don’t think I picked the right ones. May have to do a trade or something. Anyway, the Bears coasted to an easy win over the Colts, who still looked like they don’t have Peyton Manning. Marshall was there at every turn, giving Cutler a reliable target. I liked the steady pace of the Bears offense, you could tell that Mike Martz was no longer doing shit to muck it up. The Packers NFC dominance is over. I’m calling it. Code! Crash cart! In fact, at this point I’d like to change my prediction and pick the Bears to win the division. I’m going to start here, Bears win on the road.

Kansas City at Buffalo -3.0
Memo to Bills staff: “Considering the state of our organization and the fact that we haven’t won any playoff game in 11 years, we will be cancelling Hawaiian shirt Friday. This may come as a shock to most of you in the front office, but aside from the fact that Chan refuses to button the top three buttons of his shirt, we have no choice but to pick this particular activity to cancel. There will also be no more free cupcakes on Thursdays in the break room, and you’ll have to bring in your own coffee filters. We are also holding open tryouts for the following football positions: QB, WR, LB, OT, DE, TE, SS, CB, RB, K, P, DT. Please apply with Maggie in HR. That is all.” Chiefs to win on the road.

Cleveland at Cincinnati -7.0
The Bengals running game was the only bright spot last week, which is good considering they were playing the Ravens. Green was basically shut down for most of the game and the defense was unable to contain anything including their lunches. The drubbing by the Ravens exposed a lot about this team, mostly that Marvin Lewis (as expected) is a big hairy pussy. There is no will to win in his coaching style. The Browns face a similar situation in Shurmur, just no will to win. The defense was stellar against the Eagles, but that might have been a fluke. The Browns will lose this week, Wheedon will get sacked and hurried and rushed a lot, but I think we’ll learn how bad these two teams are gonna suck this year. Bengals at home.

Minnesota at Indianapolis +5.0
Do I have to pick this game? Does it seem like more teams suck this year than are stellar? I can’t decide if this game is going to be worse than the one above it or the one below it. I’m so confused. The Colts were meh as they were completely outmatched by the Bears. Bright spots; Luck looked okay, Donald Brown looked great on the ground. Brown and his production is going to be the key to this team getting their shit together. The secondary needs to step up if they want to compete against premiere quarterbacks. That’s a real hurt on this team. Marshall smoked them, sometimes in double coverage. The Vikings roll in, fresh off a lucky OT win over the hapless Jags. Ponder looked like warm crap on your tire, but somehow pulled it off by going to the TE route and Peterson as often as possible. I’m going out on a limb here and taking the Colts to upset, again, cause I want to see Luck get his first win.

Oakland at Miami +3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Something you don’t ever want to hear in professional football: “bring in the back-up long snapper!” That was doom for the Raiders as kicking mistakes handed the Chargers an easy win. If not for that, the Raiders might have had a chance to come into Miami with a win. As it is, both these teams are looking for their first win, but I don’t think the Dolphins are up to the task. Tannehill was atrocious, probably the worst rookie performance on Sunday. I dunno. I didn’t look at the stats, he just looked bad. The Dolphins are really having trouble adjusting to a new defensive pattern, missing coverages and tackles all over the place. I expect the Raiders to come in with a thirst for blood and I expect them to find some for slurping. Raiders to win on the road.

Arizona at New England -13.0
After last week, do I really have to pick another New England game? I predicted them at 16-0 so I suppose I can save some typing and just say Patriots to win. However, the Cardinals should give them some trouble, if they take Tom Brady’s parking spot. The Cardinals saw Skelton go down and Kolb take over to lead the team past the Seahawks last week, a slight feat considering that division. A two touchdown line is generous. Pats to win. I already said that. Pats to win all season.

Tampa Bay at NY Giants -9.0
What can I say about the team that I hate the most? The Bucs were surprisingly good last week, both on defense and on the ground. Not to mention the rush defense which stifled the Panthers. I did not see that coming. Regardless, now they face a team that has tons of weapons on offense, which will really test the Bucs defense. I think the Bucs defense has made a good turnaround and looks like they could seal some games for the lackluster offense this year, but I’m not placing any major bets. Eli and the Giants are too good for that. But wait, the Giants lost to the Cowboys last week! How did that happen? Well, it happened with bad secondary coverage and Romo looking like the quarterback everyone seems to think he is. The Bucs don’t have that kind of passing game to severely threaten the Giants secondary, but they need to be on their game. Giants to win.

Baltimore at Philadelphia -1.0
Are you kidding me with this fucking line? Did Flacco sustain a head injury that we don’t know about? The Ravens trashed the Bengals last week, while the Eagles struggled against one of the worst teams in the league. Are you oddsmakers telling me that you think Vick will throw any less interceptions against the Ravens superior defense than he did against the Browns? Vick was lucky to get out of there with a win and all his freaking ribs. This is a joke. Ray Rice is a beast and crushed it last week. There is no way that the Eagles defensive line is any better than the Browns. This is a gross miscalculation. Ravens to win.

New Orleans at Carolina +6.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I didn’t think that I’d see an 0-1 Saints team meeting up with an 0-1 Panthers team. The Saints were completely surprised by the abject accuracy of RGIII and the lack of Will Smith and Vilma on defense showed. Not to mention the lack of leadership in not having a coach on the field. This team is hurting right now and it was apparent last week. Meanwhile, the Panthers took it in the tailpipe from the Bucs, especially when it came to the running game. The good news for them is that Jonathan Stewart will play against the Saints. This is a tough one to call, but I’m thinking the Panthers are going to rebound before the Saints do. Cam knows what to do. Panthers to upset.

Houston at Jacksonville +7.0
Forget it. Arian Foster proved why he was the top fantasy pick in so many leagues, or if not the top – the first picked running back. When he sees the opportunity to shred a lousy team for tons of yards and touchdowns he does, and he did against the Fins last week. Then you tack on the Shaub to Johnson connection and you can’t beat this team on offense. The Jags defense won’t be able to keep up, even though they contained the game against the Vikings. The Jags are still looking for their offense to click, MJD and Jennings are sharing carries and neither looks like they showed up for training camp. Florida teams are in for a bad year and it sucks to say that the Bucs are the best of the three of them. Texans to win on the road.

Washington at St. Louis +3.0
Bradford found himself in too much trouble last week to really consider his performance. While he was able to rally the team to keep in the game against the Lions, he was rushed way too much to be able to keep the score up. The Redskins found their offense, finally, after all these years of bad quarterbacks, bad ownership and bad coaching. RGIII is the real deal and was terribly accurate the entire game, finding his way out of pressure and making the right connections. Helu got back into the game, looking better than he has in a few seasons. And did you know, the kids aren’t Tebowing anymore, they are RGIII’ing or something like that. You know when he sat down and raised his hands after that long touchdown pass to Garcon, that. The bad news is Garcon went out after that, not sure if he’s back in this week. Shouldn’t matter, should still be a win. The Redskins are gonna make the NFC East interesting this year. Skins to win on the road.

Dallas at Seattle +5.0
Dallas. Look, Russell Wilson actually looked pretty good against the Cardinals last week, I mean, compared to Wheedon. He made some passes, Sidney Rice caught some balls and they still lost the game. The Seahawks are held together with that clear plastic tape that doesn’t work well for boxes. The Cowboys roll in, fresh off a win over the reigning Super Bowl champs. That’s enough for me. The Cowboys defense was strong, their running game was tight and Romo looked like a bon-a-fide QB. I may have underestimated the Cowboys this season. If they blowout the Hawks, I may have to change my thinking on this team.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh -6.0
It’s really hard to judge the Jets at this point because the Bills are horrible. A win was a no-brainer. Sanchez was passing to every receiver that he had on the field and every time either him or Tebow lined up out of the QB position I grumbled a little bit because it was pretty damn obvious what they were doing. I do like how Tebow came out on the hands team on that Buffalo onside kick and got the ball, that was amusing. Every time the two of them were on the field I just wanted to laugh. I thought I was watching playground football. I didn’t see much of the Pittsburgh loss, I was doing something else, I always am during the Sunday night game, kind of on in the background. All I know is that a quality QB smoked their secondary and an aging RB smoked their run defense. The Jets could be trouble for the Steelers, but I think the Steelers rebound on this one at home and sneak by the Jets. Steelers to win.

Tennessee at San Diego -6.0
Well, Jake Locker was another rookie Qb with another less than stellar debut. He ended up leaving the game a bit early, injured and Hasselbeck came into the game. To that point, it didn’t really matter as they were up against the best offensive team in the league. This week, they come to sunny San Diego, where Rivers and crew is feeling the pinch without a prime reciever after Jackson left. The only reason the Chargers won as because of messed up kicking by the Raiders. So you have the Titans, who aren’t too bad on the run defense and the Chargers who aren’t too great on the run. This is a toss up for me, but I’m taking the home team, Chargers to win.

Detroit at San Francisco -7.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!!
This is my game of the week because while winning over Green Bay was pretty impressive, the Niners need to do it two weeks in a row for me to really crown them the new kings of the NFC. The Packers looked like they hadn’t played football in a while, and if you think about it – their defense hasn’t. Their defense was coasting all year last year because of the offense. Well, the offense sputtered against the Niners and the defense wasn’t ready to step up. The Lions defense is always stepped up, at least for the last year. They have to be. Kevin Smith had a killer game last week, just tearing it up on the ground. I like this guy at RB. But the Niners defense is the bestest! He’ll have trouble finding the holes this week. I’d like to see the Lions make a game of it, but I think the Niners are just too damn good right now. Even Moss is scoring touchdowns. Niners at home.

Denver at Atlanta -3.5
I made a mistake last week picking the Chiefs to beat the Falcons. I don’t know what I was thinking. Matt Ryan is my starting fantasy QB. He had four fucking touchdowns. Four! You can’t bet against that. And now they get their first home game against the Denver Mannings? I dunno. I don’t know how I can pick against Manning. I mean, he played like he had just taken a week off to fold umbrellas or something. He hasn’t lost a step, ran the offense and took care of business against a high class defense. The Falcons defense is good, but I dunno if they are Manning good. This is going to be an offensive shootout. There has got to be some stat about Manning on Monday night, so I’m running with it. Denver to upset.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Week 1

Thursday, September 6th, 2012

The first column of the season is always the hardest to write. Once the preview columns are done, then it’s time to get to the week to week and this early, it’s hard to tell who is going to do what week to week. Can’t say that my first week record is very good. Of course, I’m not going to go back and add it up either. So just take my word for it.

If you’ve never read this column, it’s like this, I predict a winner for the upcoming games by looking at the previous week, babbling about my fantasy team and speculating on things I may have heard, read or made up. Frankly, the whole thing is a crap shoot. I generally end the season with around a 65% success rate, so if you are using this column for gambling purposes – you’re a moron. While that is a good pick percentage, chances are you have a gambling problem and are losing money anyway. I don’t want to be involved in your losses. Take your addiction somewhere else buddy.

I already picked last nights game earlier in the week, so I’m going to skip that one. Hell, when I wrote this the game hadn’t even been played yet. So, I’ll just say the [INSERT TEAM HERE] won. Go team!

Indianapolis at Chicago -9.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Yeah, I think I just gave away this pick. Look, I think Cutler and the Bears have been playing well the past couple seasons, but with Urlacher coming back from an injury and Forte getting his huge contract, I don’t think they are going to come out of the gate firing. The Colts looked great in preseason, and I know, it’s just preseason but I like this Luck kid and I think that he’s going to start off the season surprising the hell out of the Bears. Unlike Manning, Luck does pretty well in the outdoors and the weather is still nice in Chicago. If this were a later season game I might look at it a different way. As confident as I am, I’m starting Luck in all my fantasy leagues. Colts to upset on the road.

Philadelphia at Cleveland +6.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!
The Browns are terrible. While I’d love to predict a win for them at some point this season, I don’t see it happening. And now with Haden suspended for three games, their defense has taken a huge hit. The only positive in this game is hoping the Browns put some damage on Vick. They won’t be able to cover the receivers without Haden playing dirty out there in the secondary and their run defense is suspect. The Eagles are going to light them up in the air. If you have any Eagles players on your fantasy team, make sure you start them this week.

St. Louis at Detroit -9.0
The Rams are getting some hype right now, new coach, new system, new offensive plan. I’m not sold. I think Stephen Jackson will have a solid season, but I don’t think that Bradford will get hit any less. They still have problems on the lines and Detroit will exploit them, especially when the Lions are on defense. The Rams might make a contest out of it, but Stafford is a much more bon-a-fide QB than Bradford, and he’s proven it. The Lions are a team to no longer take lightly. Lions to win at home, with the points.

New England at Tennessee +7.0
What a test for Jake Locker right out of the gate, and Chris Johnson. The Patriots roll in, fresh off a Superbowl loss, looking to redeem themselves by making it back this year. Considering I predicted the Pats to go 16-0, clearly I can’t pick them to lose. This game will be interesting though, as we’ll see if the Pats defense has improved since last year, when they were absolutely terrible. An improved defense, with that offense, they’ll be unstoppable. I’m hoping that losing this game won’t destroy Jake Locker for the season. If you have Rob Bironas on your fantasy team – start him. Pats to win on the road.

Atlanta at Kansas City +1.0
I’m a bit surprised at this line. I guess the Chiefs gained a couple points by playing at home, and Atlanta dropped a couple not playing in the dome. The key to this game for the Chiefs is the running game. Can they get Johnson and Hillis past the Falcons front D-line? Probably. The Falcons aren’t the greatest on run defense. The Chiefs will have to press them on offense and press Ryan on defense. He’s got too many weapons to not pressure him out of the box on a regular basis. I’m taking the home team on this one though, just because of home team statistics during week one. Chiefs to win.

Jacksonville at Minnesota -4.5
The Jags are going to have a rough year. Even though MJD has shown up, it’s still a question of whether he is going to “show up”. It could go either way. Meanwhile the Vikings aren’t exactly playoff bound, but the Jags are a good opponent for young Ponder to show us that he’s been studying in the off season. Late game mistakes killed this kid last season, and I’m going to guess we’ll see a bit more maturity out of him this time around. I like the Vikings at home, just cause the Jags suck worse.

Washington at New Orleans -8.5
What a fun test for RGIII. Too bad he didn’t get the Bucs to start off the season. Instead he gets the lights out secondary of the Saints and his defense gets to get smoked by the Saints offense. The Saints are going to win this game, it’s just a question of by how much. I’m thinking by at least two touchdowns. The Skins need to take advantage of the Saints run defense, which isn’t all there thanks to suspensions. RGIII isn’t really a running QB though, but he’s got mobility. That should open up enough time to get a pass off. And unlike Vick, he can take a hit. Saints to win at home.

Buffalo at NY Jets -6.0
I read one column last night predicting the Bills to make the playoffs. Yeah, I’m not buying it. I like the Bills, but they don’t have the winning spirit, whatever that is. Chan Gailey just doesn’t take enough chances. The Jets are going to be fun to watch this year. How long before Sanchez makes a mistake and the crowd starts chanting for Tebow? Not long. I expect it by the third quarter of this game. Rex Ryan knows what he’s doing and he knows that Sanchez is not as electric as some think he is. I expect Tebow time to start early this year. Jets to win at home.

Miami at Houston -6.5
The Dolphins are coming in with a revamped defense, only because they have a new coordinator, and a rookie QB. Meanwhile, the Texans are without Mario Williams for the first time since he entered the league. How will this affect their defense this year? Against the Fins, shouldn’t change anything. We’ll have to wait until they play a strong offensive unit. Speaking of offense, Foster is going to shred the Dolphins on the ground. There is no doubt about that. I’m putting him at over 100 yards for this game for sure. Texans to win at home.

San Francisco at Green Bay -7.0 GAME OF THE WEEK!
This is a great match-up with playoff implications. As in, these teams will most likely see each other again in the playoffs. You have the best defense in the Niners against the best passing offense in the Packers, in my estimation. The Packers won’t be able to run against the Niners, but they’ll try. Alex Smith has some new weapons to play with on offense, while Rodgers is gunning with pretty much the same guys, which means he’s already got the cadence down pat. I’m taking the Packers to win at home, but this is going to be a back and forth affair with a chance that the Niners upset.

Seattle at Arizona +1.0
I guess it is too early in the season for me to not give a shit about the Cardinals. Actually, this whole division is just crap save for the Niners. An in-division match-up like this, it may as well be week 17 and both these teams are 6-9. The Hawks haven’t been the same since letting Hasselbeck leave, even though he had at least a year left in him as a starter, as he proved in Tennessee. The Cardinals are starting Skelton over Kolb, who cares? Both of these guys will be floating around the league as backups after this season for the rest of their careers. Meh. Cardinals to win just cause they are home.

Carolina at Tampa Bay +3.0
As with the Cardinals, it’s too early for me not to give a shit about the Bucs. I don’t think they will do as well as some people (mostly people here in Tampa) seem to think they will do. I think they are going to suck hard nuts. This first game will be a huge indicator for that. Will they be able to put the brakes on Cam Newton as they were unable to do last year? I highly doubt it. Newton is a fucking pro. That kid can run, jump and pass. The Bucs won’t be able to defend him – again. They might be able to contain him a bit. And I don’t even know about the Bucs offense. I can see them forcing the ball to Jackson just cause of the price they paid. Panthers to win on the road.

Pittsburgh at Denver -1.5
Without Tebow, this doesn’t seem like much of a rematch. Without Tebow, but with Manning, the Broncos are favored in this game. The Steelers don’t perform well in Denver, that much is clear. Regardless, the match-up of the Denver Mannings vs. the Steelers defense is going to be a good one. This, like many games, is an early test for the QB. If there is one team that is going to bring the pressure and the hits, it’s going to be the Steelers. For that reason, and that I don’t think Manning has got his system in place 100% just yet, I’m taking the Steelers to win.

Cincinnati at Baltimore -7.0
Most pundits, including me, are saying that A.J. Green is going to be one of the premier receivers in the league this year. Go ahead and dispute that. The Dalton to Green connection is hot and will lead the Bengals to more than a few wins. But this week, they travel to Baltimore and the Ravens lights out defense. The Ravens are one team that I can say has a really good secondary backed by a pretty good offense. The Ravens are playoff bound and are going to start the season off by roughing up the Bengals a bit. Don’t expect the Bengals to sit this one out though, they’ll be in the game. Ravens to win at home.

San Diego at Oakland -1.0
And finally we come to the Raiders. While I have them winning a few games, it’s going to be awhile before they get on any kind of track. This season is the last chance for Norv Turner with the Chargers, and maybe for Rivers as well. They have got to make something happen with this team. Starting off with a road win in the black hole will bode well for them. Plus, the Chargers generally get off to a hot start. Chargers to win on the road.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: NFC North Preview

Thursday, August 16th, 2012

So there still is a fight going on between the networks and fans. Which is better? Getting all the games on DirectTV or watching NFL RedZone? I’d have to go with NFL RedZone as you don’t get any of the players standing around. It’s all action, all the time. I’d rather watch that than flip back and forth between games.

Anyway, we’re in the second week of Preseason and two things are absolutely clear right now. I don’t give a shit about the Jets and Peyton Manning. We get it. Tebow plays for the Jets now and Peyton Manning plays for the Broncos. There are other teams out there. Thirty other teams to be exact. So let’s talk about them too.

Since I am now in three fantasy leagues I’m starting to think about who I’d pick for the important offensive positions, though one league also has defensive players as well. Who are the underdogs that are going to blow up this season? How about Cedric Benson? He’s playing for the Packers now, who have been terrible in the backfield. How about Peyton Hillis over on the Chiefs? Dude can run. Regardless, finding that hidden gem in the draft is going to be fun. Today however, we’re talking about the NFC North.

NFC North

Detroit Lions
Ok, not to give too much away but Calvin Johnson is my #1 fantasy pick. How can he not be? The Stafford to Johnson connection was brutally awesome last year, and looks to continue this year. The trick for the Lions though, is finishing games, and that’s on the defense. They need to get Suh back to 2010 strength, killing offensive lines.

I do worry about the Lions in the backfield though. Due to Javid Best suffering a billion fucking concussions (he should really just retire before he dies) I don’t see him playing a full career of football. It’s too bad, he was a great runner. Meanwhile Mikel Leshoure gets a second chance at a rookie season after being injured all last year. I’m surprised the Lions didn’t make a serious move for Benson, or pick up a RB late in the draft.

So where does that leave the Lions? It leaves them between a Green place and a Bears place, that’s where it leaves them. As of this moment in time, no matter how many touchdown connections there are between Stafford and Johnson I don’t see the Lions topping the Bears and Packers at all this season. I’d love to predict this team to hit the playoffs (as I did last year) but I’m degrading their manes to just a winning season at best.

Projected Finish: 9-7

Green Bay Packers
Good for Matt Flynn. Kid had a huge game at the end of last season and was able to land a nice contract for a starting job that probably won’t last. Can anyone say Matt Cassell? Anywho, it looks like Rodgers is backed up by who-dat Graham Harrell, out of Texas Tech and draft pick #243 B.J. Coleman out of Tennessee-Chattanooga. The reason I mention this, is for all of Green Bay’s pluses on offense, Rodgers was sacked a lot last year and may need a break at some point later in the season due to minor injury. He’s no Rothlesburger.

The major change is that Ryan Grant is out at running back and Cedric Benson is getting another shot to be the man. I dunno. I’m thinking James Starks will end up being the major player here when it comes to the run game, which ranked 27th overall last year. That sucks for a team that won so many games and once again went to the NFC Championship. Though they say defense wins championships, so what about the defense?

Clay Matthews. Need I say more? Ok, how about adding USC DE Nick Perry? That dude is a monster and will surely compliment Matthews on the line. The sad thing about defense is that Charles Woodson is still the go-to corner. The guy is one of the greats, but doesn’t have the speed some of the younger guys do. Basically, if the Packers come out strong on defense this year, they’ll easily coast to the playoffs. I’m a little wary of the defense at this point though, so I’m knocking them down a couple wins because of that.

Projected Finish: 13-3

Chicago Bears
Backup QB Jason Campbell, RB Michael Bush and WR Brandon Marshall join a Bears offense that never seems to find its stride when they need it. Mike Martz is gone as offensive coordinator, replaced by the slightly more aggressive Mike Tice. Tice, once head coach of the Vikings, has a style much unlike Martz, you know, simpler. Martz and his overcomplicated offensive schemes with little room for improvisation will not be missed by Bears faithful. Last year, even I was yelling at the television when he made some of the strangest and ill timed play calls, that even if they had been successful would still have failed.

Urlacher will be ready for the season, and Peppers is still one of the best defensive players in the game, but the question on defense is that of secondary play. Basically, are they good enough to beat the Packers offense? I don’t think so. I like the drafting of safety Brandon Hardin out of Oregon State, but rarely do rookies at that position become game changers. Who knows?

The real issue with the Bears though, is going to be Brandon Marshall. That guy can either be the best or the most destructive in the club house. I’m thinking that when the Bears start losing, and they will, he’ll lead the self implosion and Lovie Smith doesn’t have the heart to smack his guys around. The Bears are in for another roller coaster season as they teams around them continue to improve.

Projected Finish: 8-8

Minnesota Vikings
First, the good news. Christian Ponder is the QB of the future for this team. Last season he showed great poise and pocket presence, only breaking down late in games. That kind of behavior can be taught out of him, and I think adding another young receiver like Jerome Simpson is a good move to give Ponder some solid targets. Also, like Hester in Chicago, Percy Harvin remains a wild-card on offense and special teams. He can turn around the tempo of a game in a heartbeat.

That’s it for the good news. The bad news is that Adrian Peterson is coming off an ACL and MCL injury, so if you are thinking of drafting him first in your fantasy league, think again. I’m guessing with the way that the Vikings offensive line is looking (bad) he’ll be taking way too many hits behind the line of scrimmage. Then there is the departure of probably the best kicker in the league, Ryan Longwell. He’ll be replaced with a rookie. Interesting how valuable kickers are when you miss them.

As for the defense, the Vikings drafted three secondary players if that tells you anything. Their secondary is a mess and I don’t think rookies are going to be the ones to fix it. The Vikings defense is going to be a huge sore point, especially in a division with three other teams with explosive offenses. That’s at least six losses right there. Yeah, I’m not smelling good scents for this team.

Projected Finish: 3-13

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 9

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011

Will the Bucs be celebrating against the Saints again?


So, I picked the Denver Tebows to beat the Lions. In my heart of hearts I knew it was wrong, I was wrong and I paid the price by losing a correct pick. It was a chance I was willing to take, just in case. The truth is, as bad as Tebow was, the rest of the team was just as shitty. So he doesn’t know how to throw away the ball and has terrible mechanics, okay. He’s got a spark, but that’s not enough. I’m still on the Tebow train, but the offensive line has got to get it together to give him an extra second. The Lions said they were coming for him, and they did. Of course, it was a good week to have the Lions defense in fantasy football, as I do. Heh.

Overall I went a dismal 8-5. When the blond chicks at work who pick at random get 10 right, you know you are doing something wrong. It’s like when you take a girl bowling and she does that under the legs thing and gets strikes, and here you are shooting from the right side with a spin on the ball and you come up short. Kind of proves chaos theory eh? I’m 76-40 on the season (66%) so that’s not too bad. I really want to stay at or above that percentage, so the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Which means second guessing my gut. Not smart, but gotta do what I gotta do.

I’m going to do something a little different this week. I’m going to immediately pick a winner, then do my analysis than either change the impromptu pick or stick with it. Either way, it should be clear at the end of each paragraph which team I’m going with. I just want to see how accurate my gut (first pick) is compared to my pick after analysis and second guessing. And instead of doing them one by one, I’m going to do all my gut picks at once, down the line. And… go!

Featured Game:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans Line: -7.5
Gut Pick: Tampa Bay The Bucs have not done me well this season, and now they come off a bye and travel to New Orleans to fight for the division. The Bucs got a little help last week as the Saints rolled over for the Rams, which tells me that they were over confident coming into the game, and looking past the game to this one. While I doubt the Saints will play as badly as they played against the Rams, I expect them to over compensate a little bit with some over aggressive play calling, which is sometimes the norm for them, but doesn’t always work against the Bucs. This should be a strong game on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to come down to trick goal line plays and special teams handling. I’d like to see the Bucs go after the Saints on punts and extra points. I think that’s where the difference in this game are going to be. So that being said, I’m taking the Saints to win. Look, I know they are both good teams in the NFC but the Saints at home have a clear advantage and splitting the series this year sounds like a good compromise. Saints at home.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

NY Jets at Buffalo Line: -1.5
Gut Pick: Buffalo The Jets talk a big game, but have yet to really show themselves. Their defense, and specifically Darell Revis have bailed them out when they needed them the most. Their win against San Diego was impressive, but came too late in the game. Especially if they want to contain the Bills, who have established quite a running game with Freddy Jackson. Not to mention the play of the defense, shutting down passing routes and pressuring QB’s left and right. I’m sticking with my gut on this one though, as the Bills are playing better all around football. Bills at home.

Seattle at Dallas Line: -12.5
Gut Pick: Dallas This season has not been easy for the Cowboys. Last week they were terrible. Their defense couldn’t keep up with the well prepared Eagles offense. They made McCoy look like a fucking god as he shredded their run defense and Romo couldn’t keep his feet under him. This team is less than inconsistent, they are bad. The Seahawks meanwhile seem to be coming around a little bit, now that they have Jackson back at QB but losing like they did to the Bungles hasn’t helped their game any. The defense is a strong point, but they don’t have the offensive weapons to get it done. I’d love to pick them to upset, but Cowboys to win at home.

Atlanta at Indianapolis Line: +8.0
Gut Pick: Atlanta Without a win and looking quite pathetic, the Colts are nothing without Peyton. Plenty of teams have injuries, and still play strong. What happened to the dubious Colts defensive front? What happened to the running game? What happened to this team besides the loss of Peyton? If he doesn’t get some MVP votes, then something is wrong in the universe. They need to win eventually right? I don’t think it’s going to be against the Falcons though. Matt Ryan likes playing in a dome, no matter where it is, Detroit or wherever. The Falcons run game is going to be too much for the Colts by themselves. And the rush will have Painter running for his life almost every snap. Falcons on the road.

Miami at Kansas City Line: -5.0
Gut Pick: Kansas City For the second week in a row the Dolphins held a lead, then gave it up like a discount hooker in an airport bathroom. While I said I won’t pick them to win at all this season (playing the odds) I do think they, unlike the Colts, are actually trying to win. There has got to be a breaking point though. It’s not only the offense having no longevity (all you need is an hour) but it’s bad coaching decisions too. The Chiefs on the other hand, looked to be having a bad season, then suddenly waking up and realizing that they are in a so-so division and have a serious chance at it. This is a win they really need if they want to stay in the race. Which is why it’s ripe for an upset. I’m not picking it though. KC at home.

San Francisco at Washington Line: +4.5
Gut Pick: San Francisco Wake up! You are not in an alternate reality! The Niners are 6-1. They haven’t been this good since Steve Young left. Not only that, but they will most likely win the division with a winning record. Quick, off the top of your head, when was the last time that happened in the NFC West? I don’t know, but it’s something to celebrate. Harbaugh is finally the coach that the Niners were looking for and they’ve turned Alex Smith into a franchise QB and somehow sparked Crabtree to start playing to his potential. The offense is clicking and I don’t see them slowing down, even on a long trip to the East coast to face the Redskins. The Redskins are a dismal 3-4, but so is everyone in the NFC East save for the Giants. However, after last weeks shut-out I don’t see them bouncing back against another strong team. Niners to win on the road.

Cleveland at Houston Line: -10.5
Gut Pick: Cleveland Of course my gut says the Browns. In my mind, they never lose. And this is a way I can pick them without actually picking them. The Browns entered the season with high expectations then the Madden curse took a hold of Peyton Hillis, the backup RB hasn’t done shit and Colt McCoy isn’t looking quite like Elway as he did last year. The bright spot is the defense, which is doing it’s job keeping games close, but that’s not enough if the offense isn’t doing shit. Heden is a beast out there in the secondary, but he can’t win games by himself. The Texans are much too good for that. They whipped up on the Titans last week and should be running away with the NFC South any day now. The Browns are just something they stepped in on the way. Texans to win.

Cincinnati at Tennessee Line: -3.0
Gut Pick: Cincinnati Shhh… don’t tell anyone. The Bengals are 5-2 and have the leagues #2 ranked defense. Last week special teams added to the fantastic ride of the Bengals season with two punts returned for TD’s. Dalton has looked like a 5 year veteran, making very few rookie mistakes. Still though, the Bengals still have to beat the Ravens and Steelers who they have to play twice yet this season. That could change everything. They need to rack up as many wins as possible before that point. The Titans, sigh, after getting a huge contract Chris Johnson has been shit, and the injury of Kenny Britt hurt this team even more. However, they aren’t out of it yet, and even after the drubbing at the hands of their division rival Texans, the Titans still have a shot, putting down the Colts last week. Johnson still didn’t get his run game going, as bad as the Colts are, so the problem is him. I’m still hoping each week that he’ll wake up, as long as I’m not playing against him in fantasy football. I’m sticking with my gut here, which I think is going to be a high scoring back and forth affair, with Cincy prevailing due to defensive play. Bengals on the road.

Denver at Oakland Line: -7.0
Gut Pick: Oakland You don’t need much of a gut to predict this after seeing how Tebow performed last week. I think I said what needed to be said in the opening paragraph. He’s getting ripped in the media but that loss was because of a complete failure as a team by the Denver Broncos. This week they roll to division rival Oakland who will be giving Palmer another go. Now, I’ve always liked Palmer, as much as I hate the Bengals. I’ve always thought he was a good QB with an accurate arm and good pocket presence, and he is. But the guy stepped away from the game, and I think that hurt him when it comes to developing a cadence with a new team. It’s been two weeks though, thanks to the bye and I think with that and working non-stop with receivers and this being a home game (cutting out travel time) Palmer will be much better this week. I’d like to see Tebow put up a fight though. Oakland to win at home.

New York at New England Line: -8.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Gut Pick: New England Was it a mistake to pick the Patriots to beat the Steelers last week? Maybe. I don’t think so, but everyone else seemed to pick the Steelers to win. Was there something I was missing? Either way, the Patriots offense was shut down for the most part, and they looked human. Now they are back at home, where Brady has lost what – once? Some crazy stat like that. Picking against them almost feels like playing the lottery. You smirk, but know that the odds are completely astronomical. While the Patriots are my gut pick here, I really want to pick the Giants to upset. The Giants seem to either sink down, or rise up to the level of their opponent and their defense has been pressuring QB’s all season and pretty boy Brady was certainly affected by the Steelers pass rush last week. This would be a tough, and huge win for the Giants if they pull it off. Brady was 6-1 against the Steelers and that stat got busted. I’m picking the Giants to upset and bust another stat.

St. Louis at Arizona Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK
Gut Pick: St. Louis What do I need to say here that you don’t already know? The Rams finally got their first win, inexplicably upsetting the Saints with killer defense. If they play even marginally like that, the Cardinals will have a tough time keeping up. While neither of these teams are going to win the NFC West, they may as well battle it out for the bottom rung. Kolb has been a complete bust in Arizona, the guy is not a starting QB. Of course, he suffers from lack of protection, so it might not be all him. They did well against the Ravens, pulling at 24-6 lead at halftime but blew it. Coffee is only for closers! Rams to win on the road.

Green Bay at San Diego Line: +6.0
Gut Pick: Green Bay The opening line for this game was 5.5 in favor of the Chargers. I laughed, checked again and saw that it had quickly flipped. Turnovers, bad defense, Rivers fumbling the ball away at a crucial point in the game and throwing two interceptions contributed to their loss against the Chiefs on Monday night. What a debacle. The Chargers played about the same against the Jets, they let the other team beat them on defense, so what chance do they have against the Packers? The Packers are playing all around great football, they make the right decisions and adjustments. Do I expect the Chargers to put up a bit of a fight? Sure. Do I expect them to win? Hell no. Packers to win on the road.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Line: -3.0
Gut Pick: Pittsburgh One of the best night games is the Ravens and Steelers. This week, they are at the Steelers, where the Patriots were sent home with their tails between their legs last week. As the season goes on, the Steelers get tougher and tougher. The Ravens staged an epic comeback against the Cardinals, but that was the Cardinals. Of course most teams don’t play the same week to week, but the Steelers are one team that is only getting better as the season progresses. The thing about them is, you can sack Ben like 60 times a game and he’ll just shake it off and keep throwing. Really, so will Flacco. He’s got the moves. The fight for the AFC North starts here (but watch the rear view for the Bengals.) Steelers to win at home.

Chicago at Philadelphia Line: -7.0
Gut Pick: Chicago The only reason the Bears are winning is because of the superior play of Matt Forte. The problem is that the Bears haven’t given Forte a new contract and they are running him ragged in the meantime. This wouldn’t be a problem if they gave him what he’s worth. Because it’s already in his head, which means at any time it could affect his game. Of course, it’s a catch-22 as if his play declines, his chances for a huge contract do too. So he’ll play hard. Philly’s LeSean McCoy had a huge running day against the Cowboys, but the Bears actually have a better run defense, when they are on. When they aren’t, they aren’t. It’s no secret I can’t stand Philly this year and want them to fail, but I don’t think I can justifiably pick them to lose at home this week after seeing what they did to the Cowboys last week. Philly to win at home.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Carolina
Hey, not a bad first half of the season for Cam Newton. Can you tell this guy is a rookie? Cause I sure can’t. That being said, he can’t do it alone, which their latest loss kind of proves.

Bye Week at Detroit
Relax. Suh is meeting with the league to go over the rules, because he doens’t want to break them. The Lions D is playing dirty lately, and they need to knock that off before it ruins their perception. Not to mention getting the attention of the officials in-game.

Bye Week at Jacksonville
The Jags are about as fun to watch as a turtle getting run over by a cloud. BORING. Is Jack Del rio still the coach? Who cares?

Bye Week at Minnesota
The Vikings have to be feeling pretty good going into this bye week. Unlike the Broncos, the rest of the team has risen up to help transition Ponder to the big leagues, and he’s fared well. While we won’t see the Vikes in the playoffs, we may see them with a winning season after all.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 8

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

Can Brady do it again vs. the Steelers?

Week 8 is when the depression of losing sets in. I went a dismal 7-6 last week, and I want to cut out my eyes and dip them in acid. I wouldn’t bet on my picks if you forced me. Yet, I’m still hanging at 66% on the year (68-35) so that’s not too bad. So last week had some challenging games, a lot of upsets and some surprise wins. The biggest of course being the Denver Tebows over Miami. All the pundits are of course blaming the Denver win on Miami’s failure to play competent football, and claiming Tebow was terrible for 55 minutes and good for 5.

Honestly, the whole team was terrible for 55 minutes. Then they came together in the last 5. Tebow was steady, but damn, how can they expect the guy to pass the ball when the pocket collapses as soon as he takes a step back? If they can’t protect against Miami, how are they going to fare against the Lions this week? Of course he was sacked and rushed. He still escaped often and made the big plays when it mattered, so all you Tebow haters can suck it. The kid is the real deal and just needs some help from his team.

In other NFL news, even Browns fans turned off the game last week due to abject boredom. Here’s to a more exciting week of football. On with the picks!

Featured Game:

New England at Pittsburgh Line: +1.5
This is always a good one, for the Patriots. The Pats got a break last week and come off the bye to face their toughest opponent before facing the Bills again. The Steelers just tossed around the Cardinals after teasing them a bit. But here’s the thing, no matter how good these two teams are, on defense (Steelers) and offense (Pats) and how many Superbowls they’ve won over the past years, Tom Brady simply owns the Steelers. Brady is 6-1 against Pittsburgh, only losing back in 2004. In the six wins, Brady has 14 touchdowns and one interception. His last four games against the Steelers have included a 70.9 completion percentage, nine touchdowns, one pick, and a yards-per-attempt average of 8.79. You can’t argue with the statistics. So how can you even think about taking the Steelers after how they’ve really not dominated this year at all? You have to stick with the Pats. However, this is going to be a fun game to watch and if you have any Pittsburgh players on your fantasy team, play them. The Patriots are likely to give up a ton of points, but not more than it takes for them to win. Patriots on the road.

Tailgate City (the Rest:)

Indianapolis at Tennessee Line: -9.0
Last week the Titans rolled over and got their fudge packed in by the Texans. Hasselbeck was terrible, Chris Johnson was nonexistent and the rest of the team just kind of stood there as the Texans whipped up on them. Do I think they re-surge this week and get a huge home win to keep in the running for the division or will the Colts buck up and win a fucking game? The Colts didn’t fare much better (worse actually) against the Saints, but at least it looked like they were trying. I’d like to nominate Peyton Manning for the MVP. No one man has meant more to a team than him. The Colts, Dolphins and Rams will be drafting QB’s 1-2-3 next year, the first time that has happened since 1999. Unless one of them actually gets their shit together. It won’t be the Colts this week. They just don’t have enough to win. Titans at home. Not with the points though. I don’t think they are that good right now. Though if Chris Johnson can’t get it done against the Colts terrible rushing defense, then I’m writing him off for the rest of the season.

New Orleans at St. Louis Line: +13.0
If you thought that the Saints vs. Colts game was a mismatch, wait until the Saints travel to St. Louis this weekend and whip up on the Rams. New Orleans stopped passing after the half last week, yet still ran up the score. They couldn’t help it. Expect more of the same this week, but the Rams could put up a bit of a fight. Not on run defense of course, since they have one of the worst in the league. New receiver Brandon Lloyd might get going this game, but the Rams will need a whole lot more than one receiver to get this offense going. Saints on the road.

Miami at NY Giants Line: -10.0
Hey, Miami signed J.P. Losman. Won’t help. The Dolphins are horrid. Was it play calling that lost the game for them against the Broncos? Was it the magic of Tim Tebow? Or was it just really, really bad offense and QB play? It was all those things and more. The Dolphins are in the “suck for Luck” mode for sure, so I’m not picking them the rest of the season. I’m gunning for them to go 0-16. Not only that, but Sprano still inexplicably has a job, yet the Fins are already making phone calls. This does not bode well. The Giants, coming off a bye are looking like they could make the NFC East even tougher than it is. Expect them to rack up crazy stats against the Dolphins, or get upset. Either way, I’m not picking the Fins. Giants to win.

Minnesota at Carolina Line: -4.0
A nice quality win for the Panthers last week. Newton looked solid, going 18 for 23 for 256 yards and two TD’s – one rushing. He’s got seven of those this season. Nice on the defensive side too, as they racked up the sacks and a key interception (aren’t they all?) On the other side, Ponder looked good against the Packers last week, but c’mon, that was the Packers. He wasn’t going to win. This should be an interesting game between two decisively different rookie QB’s. I don’t think the Vikings have the contain down on the QB, give Newton time and he’s gonna go all A-Team on the secondary, especially with Steve Smith still out there catching passes. Rush him, and he’ll scramble, but I don’t see the Vikings successfully breaking through that often. Panthers to win at home.

Arizona at Baltimore Line: -13.0
Did anyone think the Cardinals would beat the Steelers? This team hasn’t played good football since Warner left. They gave Kolb that huge contract, but took his supporting players away from him. With a receiver core that isn’t as good as it used to be, and a running back that can’t get his legs under him, the Cardinals offense is simply terrible. There is hope for this team though, they are in the NFC West. The Ravens played a defensive struggle against the Jaguars, both teams played very well on that end. They did allow over 100 rushing yards to MJd though. But the Cardinals don’t have that kind of defense, the Ravens should be back to form this week, you know, scoring points on both offense and defense. Ravens to win.

Jacksonville at Houston Line: -9.5
Wait, did the Jags actually beat the Ravens? They did! They did it with astoundingly stout defense and a massive running game from Maurice Jones-Drew. Good for them, because they have looked pathetic all season. The Ravens are notorious for their run defense, yet gave up all those yards. But hell, they are seriously outmatched against the division leading Texans. Arian Foster is having a good season now that he’s back from injury. He’s going to test the Jax front line for sure. The Houston Texans have too many weapons for the Jags to stop, but then, that’s what I said about the Ravens. I think the Texans are a much more complete team though, and can stop the run a bit better and not get bogged down on offense. Texans at home.

Washington at Buffalo Line: -4.0
The Bills are comfortably coming off a bye heading into this game in Toronto. They have had a nice season so far, scoring a shit ton of points and highlighting the awesome running of undrafted back Fred Jackson. This counts as a home game for them, as like the Buffalo Sabres, they may as well reside in Toronto because they have a huge fan base there. Meanwhile, the Redskins defense, usually stingy, gave up a bunch of yards to the rush last week, so I don’t think they’ll shore that up in a week. John Beck, Rex Grossman – it doesn’t matter. The Redskins are inconsistent at best. Like it matters, I was gonna pick the Bills anyway. Bills to win at home.

Detroit at Denver Line: +3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Here’s the deal with the Lions, all the goodwill they have been building by winning, they lose when players like Suh get all dirty and shit. And I’m not talking about a lack of personal hygiene. I’m talking about blatant facemasking, yanking a QB’s head around like it’s a maypole. I’m talking about players rolling up on a QB’s ankle and other thuggery. The refs took notice, nailing the Lions for a ton of penalties, ultimately costing them the game. Was it worth it? The refs might be cracking down, but Suh should have been thrown out of the fucking game for that bullshit. His arm was wide out, full grab for the face. Thrown out and suspended for 3 games. I see it too much at the Pee-Wee level, kids playing just as violent. I’ve seen little thugs stomp on players while they are down, clothesline and more. At the 8-9 year old level. While their idiot parents cheer them on and the refs do nothing for fear of reprisal. What the fuck is wrong with this picture? Anyway, the Denver Tebows mounted a furious comeback against Miami, so no matter how terrible they played up to that point, they won the fucking game so all you Tebow haters can suck it. Denver is still terrible on both sides of the ball, and I know the Lions have more offensive power than the Broncos D can handle, but just for the hell of it, fuck it if I’m wrong but I’ll look awesome if I’m right – the Lions continue their skid and the Broncos and Tim Tebow win. Denver at home.

Cleveland at San Francisco Line: -9.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
You mean after that three point drubbing that the Browns gave the Seahawks last week in what was probably the most boring game of the season, the Browns aren’t less than a 10 point underdog? Weak. That’s just weak. Every one keeps saying that perhaps the Browns are better than they are, perhaps they are but outside of defense, the Browns haven’t showed anything recently that would give me the impression that they are nothing but a cobbled together team of young players that could do well in the future. Last week the defense was fantastic, but it was the offense that couldn’t get anything started. This week they travel to the West coast to fight the Niners, who are coming off a bye after a win over the Lions in rough fashion. The Browns, while I’d love to pick them since they are my boys, are not going to win this game because of the offensive problems. There could be an upset here, but I don’t think so. I hope so, but don’t think so. Niners to win at home.

Cincinnati at Seattle Line: +2.5
So the Seahawks got shut down on all offensive fronts by the Browns, and lost. Their defense played well I suppose, blocking a few field goals, but I think it was the lack of a Browns offense that kept the scoring low. Real low. Finally they go home after a couple weeks on the road, and they welcome another AFC North opponent to their house. Can Whitehurst and the boys rebound and beat the Bengals? Also coming off a bye, this team is the most surprising 4-2 team. Andy Dalton is coming around quite nicely as a starting QB, his mistakes are starting to disappear. The only issues remain at running back, as Benson has been sidelined for a bit. I’m looking for the Bengals to add to their win total here on the road, which should make their next game against the Steelers that much more interesting. Bengals to win.

Dallas at Philadelphia Line: -3.0
The Eagles needed a bye week to settle down. Are they settled? Well, a strong divisional game will show us if they are. What needs to be settled? Well, Vick needs to show that he’s worth that big contract and actually stick in the pocket and throw a pass, while the lack of a secondary needs to be addressed. The run defense isn’t spectacular either. Which should be interesting against rookie DeMarco Murray, who broke Emmitt Smith’s rushing record for a single game in a Cowboys uniform. The Cowboys are gearing up. They got a slow start and are going to be scary to face very shortly in the future, that is, they are going to be an offensive powerhouse – if Tony Romo can get his head out of his ass. Either way, I’m going against the grain here and going with the Cowboys to win because I really don’t like the Eagles, I said they weren’t going to be as good as people say they are and I like to be right. Cowboys. Offense. Win.

San Diego at Kansas City Line: +3.5
Finally. Finally the Chiefs looked like they do on paper. Finally the offense blew up. Finally the running game got going. Finally the passing game, the defense and Matt Cassel woke the fuck up. They trashed the Raiders, ran Boller out of the game and looked damn good. Can they do it again, at home against a Chargers team that has it’s number one weapon in Antonio Gates back on the field? Can they prove that they are not to be counted out just yet and the start of the year was just a fluke? Or was last week a fluke? This is going to be a huge game for both of these teams. I’m taking Rivers and the coaching staff to once again find a way to blow it (bad time management did it against the Jets) and I’m giving the nod to the Chiefs on this one. Any given Sunday right?

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Atlanta
Huge win for the Falcons over the Lions last week, but it was still a sloppy game for them. They really need to take the week off and decide if they want to protect Matt Ryan for just a second longer in the pocket.

Bye Week at Chicago
Hi. We’re the Bears. Sometimes we can’t protect our QB. Sometimes our running game is second to none. Sometimes our defense actually shows up. Of course, it helps if we travel to London to do all those things. Maybe we’ll be consistent going forward.

Bye Week at Green Bay
The Packers go into their bye needing to… do nothing. Maybe tighen up on defense a little bit, but hell, this team is going 16-0. Superbowl. Back to back. Put the whole team on the cover of Madden 13. It’s the only way they’ll lose.

Bye Week at N.Y. Jets
The Jets defense saved their asses against the Chargers, a week after saving their asses against the Dolphins. The offense has really got to wake up, figure out who is going to run the ball. Thankfully, Sanchez finally met that Plaxico Buress guy.

Bye Week at Oakland
Boller got the start over Palmer, throws two picks (his first two passes.) Then Palmer comes in, throws three more. Weak sauce. Don’t expect this team to get any better without a consistent QB. It’ll be Palmer, and it better be quick or he’s back to retired.

Bye Week at Tampa Bay
I cannot get this team right. I pick them to lose, they win. I pick them to win, they lose. It’s like they read this column and say “you’ve hated on us for so many years, we’re just going to prove you wrong every week.” Fine. Then I’m back to hating. I rescind my pick for the Bucs for the playoffs. Fuck off and finish last in the division. A-holes.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 5

Thursday, October 6th, 2011

Yes! Cheerleaders! Go Texans! (image: texansbullpen.com)

Well, it’s week five which means it’s time to start the bye weeks. That doesn’t mean any less writing for me though, as I’m introducing a new concept to the column for this year, talking about the bye week teams and what they need to do to get better (if anything.) That’s at the bottom. I had another week at 12-4, which puts me at 46-18 (72%) on the year. Suck on that shit so-called experts. Why haven’t I been hired by CBSSports or ESPN.com yet? I have no idea. I’ve been doing this for years. Maybe cause it’s because I say fuck, and vagina slobber. Enough! On with the picks!

Featured Game

Oakland at Houston Line: -7.0
Looking at the schedule at the beginning of the season, did you think this would ever be one of my featured games? I ain’t messing around with this one. This is going to be a crazy good game. The Raiders may have just lost to the Patriots, but they put up a good fight. Penalties killed them in the second half, and they were playing against the best offense in the league. Campbell needs to be a bit more protective of his passes. The Raiders run defense is suspect, allowing plenty of yards on the ground, while Arian Foster ran for 155 against the Steelers. What do you think he’s going to do against the Raiders? But wait, the Raiders have the leagues highest rated rusher in Darren McFadden! While the Texans don’t have the best run defense, they have a better one. There should be a lot of running going on in this one. I’m taking the Texans to win, and Hue Jackson to predict that the Raiders will win the Stanley Cup after they win the division.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Philadelphia at Buffalo Line: +3.0
Ok, maybe I’ve been a bit too sold on the Bills. They do have one of the leagues worst run defenses after all. But still, it’s offense that wins games and last week – they didn’t have it. Thankfully, neither do the Eagles. What’s that you say? But they have Vick – he makes plays happen! Sure, every once in a while for a first down or something, but he’s not getting the scoring plays and the Eagles run game is terrible. They couldn’t get it done against the Niners at all. The Eagles have no red zone offense. If the Bills can get their offense back like it was the first three weeks, this is their game to lose. Bills at home.

Kansas City at Indianapolis Line: -1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK #1!!
The Colts netted a whole 62 yards on the ground against the Bucs. I’m sorry, but if you have a rookie QB and at least 3 top flight receivers, you’ve got to establish a run game so that when he (Painter) does throw the ball – he’s got time and he’s on target. Instead, he was all over the place. Peyton ain’t coming back. Collins was a bust. Carson Palmer is still couch surfing. Just saying. The Chiefs fared a bit better this week, actually getting a passing game going and remembering that Thomas Jones ain’t retired yet. They took advantage of some situations and pulled out a win. This one is tough for me, but I think with weapons like Piere Garcon and Reggie Wayne, you shouldn’t lose. This game is going to come down to defense, specifically run defense. Shit. I have no idea. I’m winging this one and running with the home team. Colts at home.

Arizona at Minnesota Line: -3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK #2!!
You know the Vikings are playing bad when they rely on Peterson the whole game and he gets bottled up by the Kansas City defense. The Vikings sure do need a win, but their schedule doesn’t really have one penciled in for a while. McNabb used to be able to engineer a nice comeback, and I expect he’ll need one against the Cardinals. The Cards are struggling to stay afloat. Beanie Wells had a career rushing game against the Giants, but the Cards defense managed to blow the lead and waste that effort. Good job guys. Whose defense is worse? Like the above game, this one is a shit fest too. Home team wins just cause. The fact is, there are a lot of terrible teams in the NFL this season (compared to other teams in the NFL.) Perhaps this had to do with the lack of an offseason, who knows? Either way, this week kind of highlights the turds.

Seattle at NY Giants Line: -10.0
The Seahawks could not part the defensive line of the Falcons last week, so how are they going to fare against the Giants? Not so good. As the game goes on, Eli and the men around him get better. So the Hawks better jump out to a huge lead, and I mean huge, because just last week Eli showed he can mount a comeback. The Hawks offense, while showing a little spark against the Falcons, needs to focus on the run because the Giants gave up a ton on the ground to Wells last week, and will probably do it again. Pound, pound, pound. Won’t matter though in the end. Giants at home.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh Line: -6.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
So Hasselbeck is no slouch. We knew that. He saw holes in the Cleveland defense last week and went to town. Even without Kenny Britt, Hasselbeck found his very able tight ends slipping out of coverage. The key against Pittsburgh is taking advantage of the aging defense with some tomfoolery. Play action, passes to Johnson in the flat, flea flickers, tight ends lining up as blockers and slipping out into the slant – whatever. The Titans need to go into their bag of tricks. Hasselbeck can pull it off. The Steelers are reeling. Big Ben is hurt, but not out. Mendenhall is hurt and out. The offensive line is like a quilt in a retirement home, on fire. The Steelers are in trouble, and I think this is the week the Titans step out of the Colts long shadow. Titans to win on the road, upsetting the Steelers. Yeah, I said it.

New Orleans at Carolina Line: +7.0
Why are you kicking to Hester? The Panthers have a coach whose job it is to make sure special teams doesn’t fuck up like that. They fucked up. Cam Newton made some rookie mistakes as well, go figure. Finally he gets to face the Saints, who are going to make the Carolina defense look like confetti draped around a topless drunk girls boobs. Sproles is gonna motorboat that front line like the same. Brees is going to pick them apart like picking said confetti out of said drunk girls pubes. Cam isn’t going to have an answer on offense. Expect to see him get seriously flustered. Where he looked poised against the Packers, the Saints are better at getting under their oppositions skin. Saints to win on the road.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville Line: -1.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK #3!!
The turds keep sliding out of this schedule. Like I said, a lot less parity to go around this year. These two teams play sub-par football at best. Yet, they’ve both beaten a top team. The Jags beat the Titans in week one, while the Bungles just knocked the Bills down a notch. So what happens when they meet up in Jacksonville? The Bengals defense isn’t playing half bad, holding the high scoring Buffalo offense to one TD. The Jags struggle on offense just to score that. Gabbert might turn into a franchise QB for the Jags, but he can’t rely on his defense this week. He’s got to score points. It’s rookie QB vs. rookie QB. Defense vs. Defense. Who you got? Home team. Jags to win by like one point on a late FG or something.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco Line: -2.5
Good thing Philly kickers still suck. Oh wait, was that David Akers missing a FG for the Niners? The Niners were still able to grind out another win. They are a scrappy little team, but scrapping isn’t going to be much against the defensive and growing offensive prowess of the Bucs. The Bucs are slowly gaining some serious klout. They pushed around the Colts on Monday night, slapping them around for a nice 24-17 win. It took a little bit of a comeback, but as much as I hate them, they are playing good football. The man-love affair between coach Rahim Morris & QB Josh Freeman is paying off. Bucs to win on the road.

San Diego at Denver Line: +6.0
Seriously. TEBOW! TEBOW! TEBOW! Denver sucks. The defense gave up 507 yards & 5 TD’s to the Packers. Not to mention the offense turning over the ball four fucking times. The whole team save for McGahee looked like a bunch of half drunk idiots. Can Tebow save this team? At least net them a win? Not this week, as the Chargers roll into town ready to lay the smack down. Rivers is charged up after shredding the hapless Dolphins, but that was helped by four nice field goals. The offense will have to start doing better than that. Thankfully against the Broncos defense, all they’ll need is a safety to win. Chargers on the road.

NY Jets at New England Line: -8.0
There was a point in the game against the Ravens where Sanchez fumbled the ball, then simply watched as it was scooped up and ran in for a touchdown. That was some lazy ass shit GQ poster boy. That kind of exemplifies how the Jets are playing right now on offense. While the defense is still stepping up and keeping them in the game (three turnovers and a TD against the Ravens,) the offense is blowing chunks. Maybe they’ll be a bit better when Mangold gets back. So needless to say, the Patriots are playing killer offense. Yeah, their defense is so-so, but who cares? Brady to Welker, touchdown x 4. Patriots win.

Green Bay at Atlanta Line: +4.5
I swear I can hear Matt Ryan sigh when he gets back into the dome. He does not play well outside. The Falcons nearly blew it against the Seahawks, but good offensive line play saved them. Plus, no turnovers. The defense allowed over 300 yards to the Seahawks low rated offense, which spells trouble with a capital cheese head against the high flying Packers. The only answer is going to be more touchdowns by the Falcons offense. It’s the only way as the defense will be struggling to keep Green Bay from scoring. The Green Bay defense has weaknesses, like giving up 384 yards to Denver. This should be a nice back and forth for a while. An offensive firestorm. I’m waffling on this one, but sticking with the Packers and taking them to win on the road. I better bench the Falcons defense this week in fantasy.

Chicago at Detroit Line: -6.0
Yeah, the Lions are for real. Deal with it. Undefeated. On a roll. Defense and offense both playing strong. You are looking at a sure fire playoff team, if not a Superbowl team. Crazy huh? Some twilight zone shit for sure. So they welcome their division foes da Bears to town. The Bears, well, their pass defense is terrible. Which is good for me since Calvin Johnson anchors my fantasy team. The dude has had two TD’s in every game thus far. He should get 4 in this match-up. Lions to win. Easy.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Cleveland
The Browns, once again, are probably the best worst team. A complete breakdown on defense and offensive lines last week cost them dearly. Colt McCoy has got to spend the bye week working on his fucking accuracy and the back shoulder pass. Figure it out Colt, stop over throwing your wide open receivers.

Bye Week at Dallas
It might seem like the Cowboys blew a second half lead against the Lions, but it wasn’t them – it was the Lions stepping up and being the better team. Games aren’t lost, they are won. And the Lions won. And pretty much everyone who has played the Cowboys. Romo, vacation is over buddy. Step your game up.

Bye Week at St. Louis
What can we say about the Rams? On paper they seem to have all the tools needed to win. Josh McDaniels is clearing up any detractors as to his firing in Denver, by sucking in St. Louis. An offensive line overhaul might help Bradford actually find a receiver. Shake it up Rams, what do you have to lose?

Bye Week at Miami Line: -14.0
This is how bad Miami is this season. You can bet against them on a bye week. The Dolphins need to get their offense straightened out. Moore was almost as terrible as Henne has been lately, shoulder issues withstanding. Fans are already calling for Tony Sporano to get the axe. I don’t think that’s going to be enough to salvage this season.

Bye Week at Washington
The Redskins have been riding a bit of luck up to this point. Rex Grossman isn’t really that good, but a good run defense and a strong(er – than opponents) rushing attack have helped them pull off some close wins. Could they take the division? Maybe.

Bye Week at Baltimore
The Ravens are playing outstanding defensive football. For all the mistakes Flacco made last week, the defense made up for in touchdowns. If this team loses to the Patriots in the playoffs I’ll be surprised.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

Matt Cassel is looking towards the playoffs. (Image: www.reuters.com)

With Tom Brady and his golden locks winning on Monday night against the Jets, that brought me to 12-4 on the week. Which makes me 115-78, that’s like a 60% win percentage. Hey, if you’ve been betting the moneyline on every single game this year – that means you’d be a winner! Not by much, but at least it’s not a losing record. Don’t worry, there will be a column at the end of the year highlighting all of my mistakes. Or at least the giant glowing ones. Like most of my playoff predictions at the beginning of the year.

So we enter Week 14 now. The Thursday night game is a staple, one that I constantly forget to watch. Scott Hanson of the NFL RedZone has unknowingly become my best friend in the whole wide world. If it wasn’t for the NFL RedZone, this column would not be possible. Yes, I’m totally marking out to the NFL RedZone, but c’mon – how else would I be able to see the big plays of every single game? Enough marking out, we should really get into the picks this week. There are some massive games this week. Games that would make Peter North question his manhood. So nuzzle your ass in your Lazy-Boy and get comfy (make sure you put a pillow in between the laptop and your balls) – here come the picks.

Featured Game:

Kansas City at San Diego Line: -7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
It was tough picking the featured game this week. Basically, when I do – this is the game that I’m saying will be the best game of the week. Most weekends, I’ve been pretty right on. Some haven’t turned out the way that I planned. For me, it’s most important for this column and the continuity of the universe that I get this one right. That being said, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the tip of every one’s tongue. In a division that in recent years has seen the Chargers on top, the Chiefs are on top with a two game lead over the Chargers. That’s why this game is so important for the Chiefs. A win gets them one game closer to the playoffs and winning the division, while a loss keeps the Chargers well alive to come back and take the division. I’ll say it like this cause it’s true, but this is the Chiefs division and playoff berth to lose. It’s a good thing they have been playing killer football lately. The play action is alive and well with Matt Cassel at the helm, I have no doubt they will make the playoffs this year. The road goes through sunny Southern California first. I’m taking the Chiefs to pull off the upset and send the Chargers packing.

Tailgate City (The Rest:)

Indianapolis at Tennessee Line: +3.5
I’m not sure what this game means for these two teams. Right now, they are both in line behind the Jaguars for the division and any hopes at the playoffs. However, neither team is playing playoff caliber football and if I could pick them both to lose this game I would. Peyton and the boys got rocked sideways last week against the Cowboys, losing in overtime. What the hell happened there? What happened was sloppy QB play and a roster full of injuries. The Titans got hopelessly smacked around by the Jaguars. I’m rooting for the Titans to win this game though, since they are a game behind Indy and Indy is a game behind the Jags. These two teams don’t even deserve to be in a playoff race. Titans at home.

Cleveland at Buffalo Line: -1.0
The Browns pulled off a close win last week, relying on strong defense instead of back-up QB Jake Delhomme. The interceptions won the game for them, and sunk the Dolphins. This week Colt McCoy should be back, which good because they travel to Buffalo to take on the scrappy Bills. That’s what you call a 2-10 team that comes close every week – scrappy. However, the Bills have had a tough time with stingy pass defenses and strong running games this year, and the Browns have both those things. I’m looking for the Browns to take this game and get one more closer to breaking even. Browns to win.

Green Bay at Detroit Line: +7.0
The Lions just can’t get a break this year. They hung in the game last week and a late roughing call (that shouldn’t have been a call) against Suh kept the Bears in it, eventually netting them the win. Too bad for the Lions though. They don’t suck this year, but based on the win/loss record one could argue that point. So is this a good team? Winning at home against Green Bay would prove it. However, that’s probably not going to happen. The Packers slowed down for a couple weeks, but the win over the Niners last week should propel them far enough for a win this week. Packers on the road.

New York at Minnesota Line: -0.0
The Vikings are now Favre-less. Chances are, he’s going to miss a start for the first time since 1992 or some crazy shit like that. This is a good thing. Look, I respect Favre and think he’s probably the greatest QB of my generation, but he should have hung up the cleats last year. Now he just looks the fool and you know if he starts this weekend it’s a stunt and he’s still running the team. Tavaris Jackson needs his shot, his own chance to fail and he’ll have a huge test against the crazy strong pass rush of the Giants. However, as Vick proved – that pass rush has holes. It’s just a matter of knowing how to exploit it. So the question for the Viking is whether or not their offensive line can give Tavaris enough time to let routes develop. If not, the Vikings are screwed. I’m taking the Giants on the road in what will be a surprisingly close game.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Line: -9.0
Ah, the AFC North, my favorite division. The Bungles have no shot in this game – or do they? The AFC North fully subscribes to the whole ‘every other Sunday’ theory but in reality the Bungles have no weapons greater than T.O., Ochocinco and Palmer – yet continue to lose. Why is this? They have a competent running game, can develop the play action – yet their defense is one of the worst in the league. Plus, as I predicted (though I didn’t think it would be this bad) they don’t seem to have the cohesion of a team. This is why they will continue to lose, especially against a team like the Steelers, who won a bruising cage match against the Ravens. Rothlesberger is hurt, but I bet he’ll still play. It really won’t matter. They should rest him. Steelers at home.

Tampa Bay at Washington Line: +3.0
In all reality, this should be a win for the Buccaneers. Look, it’s clear I don’t like the Bucs – I haven’t picked them all year and I refuse to. That’s my agenda so bite me. However, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all year. Lucky for them, only one more team they play at this point (the Saints) have a winning record. They get the Redskins, then the Seahawks, then the Panthers then the Saints. They have a pretty good chance of finishing 10-6. They have a young team, one of the youngest in the league so it’s not a surprise they aren’t beaten the veteran teams. However, this match-up is interesting because here you have the young’ens on the Bucs, and the old hats on the Redskins in McNabb, Shanahan, Moss & Hanesworth (who has been a non-factor this year.) The Redskins can play good offensive ball every once in a while, but have the worst ranked defense in the league. The bottom. Number 32. Regardless, I refuse to pick the Bucs. Skins to win at home.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +7.5
Matty Ice. The nickname has stuck. With a calm and cool demeanor, not looking flushed or rushed he came back down-field against the Bucs and put the winning score on the board. This kid is lights out when the situation calls for a comeback. Two minute drill? Forget about it. He’s mastered that and the one minute drill. The Falcons are playing as a unit. The defense is strong and seemed to have an off week against the Bucs. Do not underestimate your opponent! Especially a team with absolutely nothing to play for or to lose – like the Panthers. Last in almost every offensive stat, holding the single worst record in the league the Panthers are playing terrible football right now. Expect more of the same as the Falcons come to town and tear them apart. Call it practice. Falcons on the road.

Oakland at Jacksonville Line: -4.5
Oakland continues to baffle and surprise. The massive win over the Chargers last week was epic for this perennially struggling team. In the long run – the next four weeks – I don’t think that win will be enough. They are going to be too far out for the Wild Card and KC is pretty much running away with the division. So good effort fellas, maybe next year. Which makes them dangerous for a team like the Jags, who are on the cusp of locking down the AFC South. They are playing like it too, ever since that hail mary win – the Jags haven’t looked back. This week, I’d look for Maurice Jones-Drew to go for 200+ against a run defense that hasn’t been stingy enough this year. Jags to win at home.

St. Louis at New Orleans Line: -9.5
Bradford has had great poise this year, and like Mark Sanchez and Ben Rothlesberger before him could see the playoffs in his rookie year. I say could because this Rams team is only 6-6 yet they lead the division with that record. Frankly, the NFC West could go to one of three team. Kind of sad huh? This week they travel to another comfy, loud dome to play the Saints. The Saints started the season a bit slow, but in recent weeks have woken up and taken back the field. Yet last week they nearly took a spanking by the Bungles. What happened there? Well, the defense took a strong nap. This week, back at home, the crowd won’t let that happen and Bradford has not played in such a hostile place as New Orleans (as far as noise levels during the snap count.) I see this being another rough game for the Saints, as the Rams will come out quick and fast. Expect a comeback by the Saints. Saints to win at home.

Seattle at San Francisco Line: -4.5
The break even Seahawks, who have been about as consistent as a rash drive down the coast to visit division rival 49′ers. To say this game is huge for the Niners is an understatement. This game is more than huge. It’s gigantic. You see, the Niners invested a lot of money and stress in Michael Crabtree last year to very little payoff. At the same time they took a huge chance with Mike Singletary in bringing him on as the head coach. So far both have been to little avail and Singletary will be looking for a new job at the end of the season. However, even at 4-8 they still have a chance in this division, and this game is it. This is a must win for the Niners, which leads me to pick the Seahawks on the road to win. The Niners don’t perform well under pressure. They don’t have the line-up for it.

New England at Chicago Line: +3.0
A week after the two best teams in the NFC played, the two best teams in the AFC played each other. Now we get the best in the AFC versus the best in the NFC. This may as well be the Superbowl. How can I even think about picking a winner in this game? Both these teams are playing at the top of their game right now, especially the Patriots who simply destroyed the Jets last week. So, since I have to make a pick I’m going to go out on a limb and pick the Bears. No wait, I’m gonna pick the Pats. No wait, I’m gonna pick the Bears. Crap. Ok, let’s flip a coin – the Bears are at home, yet the Pats play well on the road and certainly in the weather. A win puts the Pats further away from the Jets, while the Bears have a chance to lock up the division with a win. Man, this is a tough one. Ok, I’m taking the Pats on the road. Final decision.

Miami at NY Jets Line: -6.0
I said the Jets would ‘hang in there’ against the Patriots on Monday night. Boy, was I wrong about that. They got worked. The Patriots beat them on offense, beat them on defense and just beat them. No doubt that they started fresh at practice this week. Hopefully instead of focusing on what they did wrong, they focused on the Dolphins because this ‘Fins team is not to be taken lightly. They also suffered a loss last week, and although it was close – it was a tough defense that brought them down. And while I didn’t see a tough defense on Monday night against the Pats, the Jets supposedly have one of those. I expect it to wake back up for this cold weather game. Ricky and Ronnie don’t run as well in the snow, which leaves the passing game – which hasn’t been fantastic lately. Jets at home.

Denver at Arizona Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Broncos fired Josh McDaniels this week. That would make for an interesting story line, except they suck and that’s why he’s gone. His record has been terrible since he’s been coaching the Broncos, so perhaps it’s time he take a break. Meanwhile the Cardinals are doing no better and are the only team in their division that has no chance at the playoffs. Both these teams suck, this match-up will be terrible to watch and no-one cares who wins. I don’t even think the fans will win this one. Since I have to pick a winner – Cardinals at home.

Philadelphia at Dallas Line: +3.5
The NFC East is a fun division. One week the Giants are looking like they are going to run away with it, then another week the Eagles get on top, while the Redskins keep it fresh by never letting us know if they are for real or not. Then there is the Cowboys. The Cowboys have been a huge let down this season and were the first to fire their coach. However, Jon Kitna is showing some spark, which culminated with his beating of the Colts last week. This could be an interesting game for the Eagles. The important thing for the Cowboys of course is to contain Vick. The Bears did it, and since then Vick has almost been a non-factor (as much as Vick can be a non-factor.) However, the Eagles should prevail with a win on the road.

Baltimore at Houston Line: +3.0
The Ravens played a nice violent game against the Steelers last week, which was really no surprise. A couple fines were handed out after the game and the Steelers are nursing a couple bloody noses. It’s no doubt they’ll bring that type of pain to the Houston game, but they don’t hate the Texans like they hate the Steelers. They will beat them though, the Texans at this point really don’t stand a chance. Ravens to win on the road.

I just want to make one closing point about the NFL RedZone channel, Comcast does not offer it in HD in my area. I have to watch it on an HD TV in regular definition. Now, I know the NFL owns all the cameras and is broadcasting the channel in HD, cause Verizon FiOS offers it. So my question to Comcast is – is this going to change? Because I will switch to Verizon and encourage others to if this doesn’t change next year. In fact, it’d be better if it changes by Week 15. Punks.

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The Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 10

Thursday, November 11th, 2010

The Dawg pound is pumped up for their 3-5 team

There were a couple games last week that were so freaking close, but ended up in the loss column for me. The Colts, the Chiefs and the Bills all lost by a couple points. At the same time, there were some clear winners like the Giants and the Packers, and some clear losers like the Dolphins, Cowboys & Panthers. But forget all that, there was only one game that was the pinnacle of Week 9. That game, was the Browns beating the Patriots, and that game – I picked the Browns to upset again.

Not only did my Browns beat the snot out of the Patriots, but they did it with relative ease. At no point in that game were the Patriots in control, at no point in that game did it even look like they would mount a comeback. That was the Week 9 highlight, a week in which I went a respectable 8-5 (74-56 on the season.) A week in which no football player sexted a cheerleader. A week in which Randy Moss wasn’t in the news. A week in which the Browns beat the top team in the AFC. Or did I already mention that?

The losers are looking like winners right now, at least, some of them. The Lions lost, but came real close to knocking off the Jets. The Raiders surprised the Chiefs, and of course – the Browns won. Though it’s clear who the real losers are right now. Dallas, Buffalo & Carolina. They are done. Toast. Wade Phillips (Cowboys) is gone. Will Gruden replace him? Maybe Cowher? Who knows. Know what I know? It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and here’s some picks.

Featured Game:

NY Jets at Cleveland Line: +3.0
No analysis needed. I’m taking the Browns to continue winning against teams that are supposed to be the best in the NFL. The Saints, the Patriots and now the Jets will fall to the Browns. Every week brings a new bag of tricks that their opponents don’t seem to be prepared for. Tricks aside, this team is playing great on defense, Peyton Hillis is running like an out of control train – 184 yards against the Patriots – and Mangini seems to know what he’s doing. I know they are a five loss team at this point, but they remind me a lot of the Saints last year. Doing whatever it takes to win, and completely surprising their opponent. Colt McCoy has shades of Peyton Manning, changing plays at the line, and Steve Young, scrambling for a TD. Meanwhile, the Jets are on a downward spiral. Not sure what has happened to this team in recent weeks. They barely pulled off a win against the Lions, and looked like shit doing it. I don’t think that their run defense will be able to handle Peyton Hillis, and I don’t think that Sanchez and the O-line will be able to slow down the Browns defense. Browns to win at home.

Tailgate City (The Rest:)

Baltimore at Atlanta Line: -1.0
Maybe I underestimated the Ravens last week. They handled the Dolphins with clean efficiency, cutting off most of the running game and the passing game. They picked off Henne three times in the game, which helped keep the score gap big enough to cut off any hope of a comeback. This week though, they play the Falcons in Atlanta. This is going to be a tough match-up as the highlight of both teams is the run defense. I’m looking for the Falcons to make a mark in this game as solidifying themselves as a tough NFC team – tough enough to take down one of the toughest AFC teams. Falcons at home.

Detroit at Buffalo Line: -3.0
The Lions once again came damn close to pulling off an upset against the faltering Jets, taking them to overtime. The Jets needed all four quarters to catch up and take the Lions to overtime. Unfortunately for the Lions, the Jets won and Detroit dropped to 2-6. One could say they are the best 2-6 team but that’s not good enough to salvage a season. This week, they get the 0-8 Bills, who they can surely sympathize with after having a season without a single win. Are the Bills on the same track? They are favored this week against the Lions, and could be playing in the snow. Last week I thought the Bills could pull off an upset against the Bears, they didn’t. They found a way to lose with a late interception. Expect more of the same this week. I’m taking the Lions.

Minnesota at Chicago Line: +1.5
With 27 seconds left, the Vikings scored to bring the game against the Cardinals into overtime, where they got the win. Favre through for a record 446 yards, but they still had to rally from 14 points down to force overtime. Maybe his two interceptions had something to do with that. The Bears, who should be a threat, are no threat. Even if Favre is completely off his game and throwing like shit, expect Adrian Peterson to run all over the Bears. The only plus for the Bears is the cold weather and how it affects Favre’s joints. I still am taking the Vikings though. Makes more sense considering how sloppy the Bears are playing.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis Line: -7.0
The Bengals put up a good fight against the Steelers last week, but couldn’t pull off the upset. They were playing from behind the whole game and were shut down late by the Steelers defense. The Bengals are still having a problem establishing a run game, and all those passes when playing from behind are starting to play against them. The Colts secondary is fast, but they are having inconsistencies at receiver. They looked outmatched and confused against Vick and the Eagles. I think they’ll bounce back this week with a strong win against the Bengals at home, mostly because of the 12th man – the crowd. Have I mentioned how awesome the Indy home crowd is? Yes? Ok. Indy to win at home.

Tennessee at Miami Line: +1.0
The Titans have one of the best defenses in the league, one of the best offenses as well, yet are not favored in this match-up in Miami. Are you kidding me? Did the bookies not watch the Dolphins roll over and get prison raped by the Ravens defense? How in the hell can Miami expect to pull off an upset win against the Titans defense if they couldn’t get past the Ravens defense? Henne has some great targets in Marshall and Hartline, but that won’t be enough to stop the Titans. I’d expect a little back and forth in the first half, but once the Miami D-line gets a little tired in the legs, that’s when Chris Johnson will run all over and through them. Taking the Titans on the road.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Line: -7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I won’t pick the Bucs. You all know that. The Panthers suck, but since I won’t pick the Bucs this has to be the upset special of the week. Who knows? Perhaps this is the week that the Panthers finally get their second win. Either way, not picking the Bucs. They lost to the Falcons, that made me happy. Perhaps they will lose to the Panthers this week, which will also make me happy. Panthers on the road.

Houston at Jacksonville Line: -1.0
Noooooo!! Houston lost to San Diego! For a moment it looked like they could win that game. What happened? Oh, they have the NFL’s worst past defense. That’s what happened. While the Jaguars don’t have the best passing game in the league, they have one that is good enough to take advantage of the horrible secondary of the Texans. This sucks for the Texans, because their season was looking good until that loss to the Colts a couple weeks ago. The only positive here is the Jaguars loose run defense. It’s middle of the pack at best, but the Texans Foster knows how to find the holes. I agree with this line, it’s going to be a close game, but I’m taking the Jags at home.

Kansas City at Denver Line: +1.0
Man, the Chiefs were on quite a roll there for a while weren’t they? Who knew that they’d be derailed by the Raiders last week? This week they travel up to Mile High to face division rivals Denver, who last played in London against the Niners in a game that I went null on. They won, but not convincingly by my standards and I still don’t feel confident picking the Broncos to do anything but win, or lose or whatever. Can I predict a tie? I’m just going to take the Broncos at home, but I’ll probably end up being wrong about them again, but I think my other picks are solid enough to hold me up this week. Denver at home.

Dallas at NY Giants Line: -14.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
If you think that the Cowboys got blown out against the Packers last week in their 45-7 loss which was the final straw in Wade Phillips’ back – wait until this week. While the Packers were womanizing the Cowboys, the Giants were smacking around the Seahawks like the sissy kid on the playground getting popped in the head by dodge balls. If the Cowboys want to salvage their season, it’s too late. If they want to salvage their pride, hell, it’s too late for that too. They are toast, and the Giants are going to kill them. This is the crapfest of the week because it’s just going to be painful and watch the Cowboys just get destroyed. If it’s not clear, Giants to win at home.

Seattle at Arizona Line: -3.0
Hasselbeck has been cleared to play against the Cardinals this weekend. Who cares? The Seahawks were on the verge of becoming a great team, then blowouts to the Raiders and the Giants have seriously set them back. Meanwhile, the Cards played a close game against the Vikings, but couldn’t hold the lead. This game could really go either way. It’s one of those middle of the division match-ups that decides which of these teams takes that tumble to the bottom. It think it’s going to be the Hawks. Taking the Cards to win at home, even if they can’t seem to decide which QB to start.

St. Louis at San Francisco Line: -6.0
Sam Bradford is looking like a bona-fide quarterback. Both these teams are coming off a bye-week, only one of these teams has a serious shot at the division. Alex Smith is not looking like a bona-fide QB, and has been replaced by Troy Smith for the moment. The Troy Smith to Ted Ginn connection wasn’t enough against Denver in London, and won’t be enough against the Rams this week. I’m taking the Rams to win in San Fran, if only because they are the underdog and have a serious chance at the division this year.

New England at Pittsburgh Line: -5.0
The Steelers defense won the game against the Bengals, had they faltered they would have easily lost to the Bengals comeback. Playing at home this week against the now confused Patriots, the Steelers defense is even stronger. While the Patriots were outplayed, outcoached and just plain beat by the Browns, they are a bounce back team. Sadly, the Steelers aren’t the team that allows bounce backs. Their defense will hold up, and they aren’t the ones questioning themselves as the best in the AFC, they are the best in the AFC. Steelers to win at home.

Philadelphia at Washington Line: +3.0
The NFC East games make for the best Monday night match-ups. This week, we get the Eagles, who beat the Colts, with Vick getting his legs going for 74 yards, a rushing TD, 218 passing yards and a passing TD. The guy is still the real deal. So can the Redskins defense contain him? It’s possible, the Colts just weren’t prepared for him, and he really was the game changing factor in that game. This game could go either way, but I’m going with the Eagles just because Vick is such a game changer.

Well, that’s it for this week kids. Enjoy the games, I know I will – especially that Browns vs. Jets match-up. I can tell you this much, Week 10 in the NFL means that the college football season is almost over, which means that the NFL season is that much closer to the end. However, do not worry – I will still be here after the season ends. I’m thinking about writing a women’s field hockey column.

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The Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week Two

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

Manning v. Manning. "Hey bro, let's go get some pizza." "Mmm...pizza."

Well I went a paltry 8-8 last week. Not bad considering it was the first week of the regular season. Some games where I said they could go either way – went the other way. My upset pick (Carolina) was dead wrong while my almost upset pick (KC) would have been right. So it was that kind of week. Plus, the stinking Buccaneers won. Whatever.

It’s a new week, which means new match-ups. Now that the first week is done, I’ve got a better feel for how teams should be performing (thanks to the NFL RedZone channel, which is freaking awesome.) Such as the Redskins looking good in their opener against the Cowboys, while the Ravens & Jets both looked great on defense, not so much on offense. It’s going to be a good week of football, so without further fanfare – this weeks picks. Remember, these are predictions by someone who does not have a crystal ball or a forwards / backwards time machine in his possession. Plus, the whole “any given Sunday” thing.

Featured Game:

Giants at Colts Line: -6.0
It’s only a matter of time that this game is the Superbowl. Too bad it’s not going to happen this year, I don’t see the Giants coming on that strong. However, last week they came out strong against Carolina and I regretted not picking up Eli as my fantasy QB (as I have since he entered the league.) That’s what I get. The passing game was crazy good, so the question is – without Bob Sanders in the backfield for the Colts, will their secondary be able to keep up with the Giants receivers? No matter what Peyton does, it’s going to be up to the defense to stop the high scoring offense of the Giants. Considering that the offense of the Colts sputtered against the Texans last week, that’s two strikes against the Colts. The only strike against the Giants is that they are playing in Indy, on Sunday night – where Peyton tends to shine. This is going to be a close one, but I’m taking the Colts at home. My gut is to take the Giants though, just because of their performance last week. Let’s compromise and take the Giants to beat the spread.

Tailgate City (the Rest):

Cardinals at Falcons Line: -7.0
Even after their tough loss to the Steelers last week, the Falcons looked good defensively. Perhaps it was the defense of the Steelers that made their offense look unimpressive. With the only scoring by the Falcons being field goals it’s a wonder they were able to hold the Steelers. They open at home against the Cardinals, coming off a close win against the Rams. What? Close win? Yeah, the Rams defense got through the offensive line and pressured Anderson the whole game. The Rams. You read that right. Based on that alone, I have to take the Falcons to win at home, but I think the Cardinals should keep it close.

Ravens at Bengals Line: +2.0
Well, the line on this one should say it all. The Ravens go into Cincinnati after fighting the Jets tooth and nail for a win that was all defense. Hopefully the defense took a couple days off to relax, and the offense took a couple days off from the beating they took by the Jets. Anquan Boldin had seven catches for 110 yards and a TD as he burned the Jets secondary. Meanwhile the defense held the Jets to 176 yards. Strong. The Bengals weren’t so lucky, getting drubbed by the Patriots offense. Where was the defense? Watching Welker beat them on the inside slants? Yeah, Ochocinco and Owens combined for 212 yards and a TD, but who gives a shit if you don’t win? Taking the Ravens on the road, with the points.

Chiefs at Browns Line: -0.0
Any other week, this would be my crapfest of the week. Considering how the Chiefs played on Monday night against the Chargers, this isn’t that week. Not only did they beat the Chargers, but they looked good doing it. Not to mention it was special teams and defense, with a 94 yard punt return for a TD and a goal line stand that saved the game. These aren’t the Chiefs of the last decade, this is a brand new team. Maybe. The Browns are no test of that theory, as while they have some hot receivers, they lost to the Buccaneers and that’s just sad. Chiefs on the road.

Bears at Cowboys Line: -9.0
The Bears should have lost to the Lions. They really should have, but they didn’t. Cutler through for 372 yards, including the game winning TD to Forte. That would be an impressive stat but it was against the Lions defense, who really still hasn’t improved. The Bears travel to Dallas to face a much tougher defense in the Cowboys. Romo had 282 yards passing, but was unable to make the last one count. The Cowboys offense isn’t going to take another week to start clicking. They will win at home, with points to spare.

Eagles at Detroit Line: +6.0
Is there a quarterback controversy brewing in Philadelphia? After Kolb left with a concussion against the Packers, Vick took over and ran for over 100 yards in the 27-20 loss. Eh. I don’t think there is a controversy. If Kolb is healthy, he’ll start. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford is out 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury. Ouch. Shaun Hill comes in to replace him, can’t say he could do any worse really. The bright spot on the Lions offense is Jahvid Best, who only ran for 20 yards, but had 2 TD’s. Fantasy owners were happy with that. This is a prove it or lose it game for the Lions – yes, already. The Eagles will prevail though, because they’ll stick Vick in and the Lions defense will have no answer for him. Eagles with the points.

Bills at Packers Line: -14.0
Forget it. The highlights from the Bills / Miami game were very few on the Buffalo side. The one highlight was a 31 yard TD pass to Roscoe Parrish from Trent Edwards. Even with Chan Gailey at the helm, the Bills still looked conservative and scared. The Packers are the complete opposite of that – confident and kicking ass. Rodgers only went 118 yards against the Eagles, but he looked good doing it. Even with Ryan Grant out for the season, the Packers will still be dominant. Especially against the Bills. I’m taking them to win, but I hate 14 point spreads, so no points. Of course, that’s saying the Bills will beat the spread. Eh.

Steelers at Titans Line: -5.5
The Titans played the Raiders, so no surprise that they trashed them 38-13. Johnson smoked the Raiders for 142 yards and 2 TD’s. He won’t be so lucky against the Steelers strong run defense, who only allowed a mild 42 yards to Michael Turner of the Falcons last week. Their pass defense wasn’t that great. So the Titans will be relying on Young to carry the team through an air attack. It’s possible with the Titans, but their strong point is their running game. This one is going to be close, so I’m taking the Steelers to cover the points and lose by like one or two.

Dolphins at Vikings Line: -6.0
The Dolphins pulled off a win against the Bills, but these two teams play each other tough every year. After watching some of the few highlights, I’m not real convinced that the Dolphins are playoff caliber – yet. This game is going to be the test of that. The Vikings are coming off another tough loss in New Orleans. They just can’t seem to get it done in the dome. Favre was throwing off his back foot the whole game, into the hands of Saints cornerbacks. This week he should get back to form as the Vikings take the Dolphins down a notch, with the points.

Buccaneers at Panthers Line: -0.0
The Panthers, who routed the Giants last season, got spanked in the second half by them this season. Moore threw three picks and only one TD. The Panthers looked defeated by the end of the third quarter. The Bucs, managed to beat Cleveland. Wow. Give them a freaking cookie. They beat the crappy Browns. Young Josh Freeman tossed 2 TD’s in their comeback (that’s right, they had to come back against the Browns) but it was old man Barber with his 65 yard pick-off return that made the difference. Still, refuse to ever pick the Bucs to win. I might be wrong, what, three times? Worth it. Taking Carolina to win.

Seahawks at Broncos Line: -3.5
Kyle Orton threw for nearly 300 yards in the Broncos loss to the Jags last week. Tebow also saw his first action of the season, unfortunately no one else did since no one watches Jags games. In this game, the Broncos were simply out coached (whatever the hell that means) and out played. Jones-Drew only put 98 yards on them, but that was because Garrard was busy throwing touchdowns. I’m taking the Seahawks to win, even though they blew out the Niners last week and not a good team. Taking them with the points too. In Denver. That’s right. Eat it Denver.

Rams at Raiders Line: -3.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
What can I say about these two teams that is positive? Let’s see, the Rams defense didn’t look halfway terrible against the Cardinals. Sam Bradford had a pretty good debut, passing for almost 300 yards. Anything good I can say about the Raiders? No, they suck. Bad. I mean, Jason Williams didn’t do a horrible job running away from the pass rushers, kind of fleet of foot. No contest, taking the Rams to win.

Patriots at Jets Line: +2.5 UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK!!
The Jets engaged the Ravens in a strong defensive outing, but were unable to prevail in the end. Sanchez was rushed, bullied and flushed out of the pocket. The Patriots were busy smacking the hell out of the Bengals. However, I don’t care. Just to piss off @bigguyd I’m going to pick this game as my upset special of the week. The Jets are going to break in the new stadium with a huge win over their division rivals. The best way to do this is constant pressure on Brady and cutting off the slants to Welker. But I’m not going to tell them how to play, just that I think they’ll win.

Jaguars at Chargers Line: -7.0
The Chargers, coming off a loss against a very impressive Chiefs team, is looking to rebound in their home opener against the visiting Jaguars. The Jags racked up three passing touchdowns by David Garrard against the visiting Broncos, established via the ground game of Jones-Drew. The Chargers run defense wasn’t too spectacular against the Chiefs, and facing Jones-Drew could be quite a challenge. The guy can move lines and wear down defenses. I’m looking at the Jags to keep this one close, not because of defense, just keeping up in score. Taking the Chargers to win, but the Jags to beat the one TD spread.

Texans at Redskins Line: +3.0
Amazing. These two teams almost seemed destined to meet in week two after their upset wins in week one. The Texans took the Colts to task and solidly got that monkey off their back. The Redskins played a crushing defensive game with the Cowboys, prevailing in off a fumble return by DeAngelo Hall. McNabb stuck in there and wasn’t pressured (mentally) by a Cowboys defense he’s seen plenty of times. The Texans Arian Foster (who?) ran for 231 yards and 3 TD’s. But the Texans also gave up 433 yards and 3 TD’s passing to Manning. That’s a lot of passing yards to just give away. Their win was less their offense than it was the Colts run defense. However, they will continue their winning streak by beating the Redskins.

Saints at 49′ers Line: +6.0
Why do the Niners suck so bad? Why does such a storied franchise have such trouble winning? They took the biggest beating last week, getting smacked around by the Seahawks. There wasn’t much going on with the defense, not much going on with the offense. So what do they hope to do against the Superbowl champion Saints? Lose. Big. On Monday night, for the first time in a long time. Why are they on Monday night? I have no idea. Why is the line only six points? I have no idea. The Saints are going to DESTROY the Niners.

That’s it. Week two in the books. A quick note about Monday Night Football on ESPN – it stinks. The match-ups stink, the late start stinks, there is nothing good about it anymore. The best game of the week tends to be on NBC on Sunday night and that is due to shrewd negotiating by NBC. Later in the season – they get to choose their game and shift the schedule. That makes for some great match-ups being televised. This is key when you live in a shit market like mine, where Bucs games are the standard. Thank the gods (Zeus and friends) for the NFL RedZone. Stay tuned next week for Week 3! Leave some comments! Drink beer and grill things! Toss the football with the kids!

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The shoe cables a repent reward near the visible.