
Will Greg Jennings be leaping this week against the Falcons? (Image: UPI/Brian Kersey)
Wow. I went 12-4 (92-69 on the season) last week and I would have went 14-2 had I not picked emotionally against the Bucs and the Cowboys. I can’t help it. I refuse to pick those teams no matter how it affects my stats. At least I’ve gotten the hang of picking the Broncos, who are on the suck list. Admittedly, at this point in the season it gets a bit easier to pick games. To a point, I mean, I did go 5-9 in Week 10.
Well, it’s Week 12, and for those of you who are lamenting the end of the season wait until you see the slate of games on tap for this week. We of course have our perennial stinkers at Dallas and Detroit on Turkey Day, along with an additional Thursday night game that isn’t too bad, then the weekend offers up some great match-ups that will surely test the mettle of many teams.
There are a lot of questions on the minds of football fans going into Week 12. Is Matt Ryan really the best QB in the league? Is Brett Favre going to retire? Is Randy Moss going to run a competent pattern and not look so sad? Can the Bungles get top dollar for Ochocinco and T.O. at the end of the season? There are no real good answers to all these questions except “yes.” Yes, all that will happen. Or it might not. What do I look like to you? An 8-ball? Give me a break. I’m just a loon writing a loosely crafted NFL column. Sheesh. On to Week 12!
Featured Game:
Green Bay at Atlanta Line: -2.0
The battle for NFC supremacy starts here. This could very well be the NFC championship game this year. The football gods are kind by giving us this game a couple weeks early. The high scoring Green Bay offense against the stingy & sometimes rude Atlanta secondary. This game is going to come down to run defense, and I think Atlanta has the better run defense. This could pose a problem for the Packers, who have solidified themselves as a strong passing team, their running game falling just enough behind that a strong run defense could really affect the play action portions of the playbook. I’m hoping for a nice high scoring affair, with both teams swapping touchdowns until the very end. This game is going to come down to mistakes made, but both of these teams lead the league in forcing & recovering turnovers. This is the Ali / Frazier game of the year. But, I have to pick a winner. Since the Falcons are at home, no, shit. I have no idea. This is really a tough one. Packers in final play comeback win dramatic fashion. It’s the only way.
Tailgate City (The Rest):
New England at Detroit Line: +7.0
Seven? The line is only at seven? Are you kidding me? The Patriots spanked the Colts last week, on offense and on defense. If Peyton and crew couldn’t compete, what makes anyone think the Lions have a chance against this Patriots team? The Lions at this point are just a worn down speed bump on the road to the playoffs for a team like the Patriots. Patriots on the road easy. Though the Lions might put up a bit of a fight.
New Orleans at Dallas Line: +4.0
The Saints are right back where they are supposed to be – winning with flair. The Cowboys are where no one thought they’d be. On their second coach of the year with Jon Kitna at the helm. Did you see his shit eating grin during the pistol whipping of his former team last week? Well, reverse that grin and replace it with frustration. That’s what he’s going to have passing into the Saints secondary. Aside from easily predicting a Saints road win here, I’m also going to say that Dallas turns the ball over no less than three times.
Cincinnati at NY Jets Line: -9.0
The Bungles played a good first half of football against the sunk Bills. Then they went into the locker room. I have no idea what happened in there, but they came out and gave the game away in more ways than one. The defense fell apart, while Palmer was off target the rest of the game for the most part. The crowd was right to be showering them with boos by the fourth quarter. The Jets pulled off another close win, proving – nothing. They are getting lucky and that will fail them when they come back to divisional play. However, this week they get the Bungles at home, so I’m predicting a win to stay even with the Patriots.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo Line: +6.5
Whoa, the Bills were the highest scoring team last week. Of course, they were playing the aforementioned Bungles, whose defense could have given up 200 yards to a monkey with a bag of candy corn. Fred Jackson, while still a very good runner, is going to have a hell of a time against the Steelers front four. The key to Buffalo even staying in this game is how their offensive line plays. In order for Fitzpatrick to even have a chance throwing the ball, they are going to have to open up the play action – and that means running. I wouldn’t count on it. It’d be nice to say that the Bills have a chance, but they don’t. Steelers with the win on the road.
Carolina at Cleveland Line: -0.0
The Browns pulled off another close – loss. This team comes so close and just can’t hold it together in the end. What happened last week? It’s easy. They were ahead and went into a prevent defense. Know what a prevent defense is good for? Preventing you from winning! They gave the Jags too much field, and didn’t keep up the pocket pressure that up until that point kept Maurice Jones-Drew and Garrard mostly silent. Which is why the Panthers might have a chance to stay in this game. They are outmatched, and it’s possible that McCoy could be sitting with a sprained ankle, but it won’t matter. The Panthers are playing with a QB called up from his couch a couple weeks ago. They are done. Cleveland to win at home.
Jacksonville at NY Giants Line: -7.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
You know what, the Jags have gotten lucky. Or have they? Sure, that heave-ho against the Texans was luck, but then they did it again against the Browns as well. Just coming back at the last second to take the game. So is it luck or is it the defense stepping up late to give the offense a chance? Well sure, why not? This week they travel to visit the Giants, who are a confused little team. They got absolutely worked by the Eagles, losing the division lead. Will they rebound and trounce the Jags? I don’t think so. When this team gets down on themselves, they play like absolute shit. I’m taking the Jags to upset on the road.
Minnesota at Washington Line: -2.0
Sigh. The Vikings insist that Favre will be their starter this weekend as they travel to Washington to take on the Redskins. Are you kidding me Vikings? Look, Favre has had a fantastic – nay, legendary – career but it’s time to just admit the guy cannot carry a team like he used to. Or lets put it another way, if the offensive line is incapable of collapsing in on itself there is no way he can succeed. You’ve lost the division, there is no hope for the playoffs. It’s time to ween your next generation of QB. Don’t doom Jackson to be a perennial back-up, the kid can get better if you give him a chance. Meanwhile, the Redskins are coming off a strong win against the Titans. Sure, they were facing who-dat Rusty Smith, but still – they won. And that’s what counts. I expect them to carry some of that momentum against the struggling Vikings. Redskins to win at home.
Tennessee at Houston Line: -0.0
Oh how far the mighty have fallen. The Texans have the number one rusher in the league in Adrian Foster. He’s also scored the most touchdowns in the league – yet – the Texans are hugging the bottom of the division. They have some company in the Titans though, who are now without Vince Young, Kerry Collins was pushed to emergency back-up and rookie Rusty Smith from Florida Mid-Atlantic is taking the snaps. Chris Johnson has not been the destructive force he’s been in the past and while the Titans started off with one of the strongest defenses in the league, have slowed down a lot. Which is why I’m taking the Texans to win at home this weekend.
Miami at Oakland Line: -0.0
What were your expectations for these two teams? I expected the Dolphins to be much better than they are, but a shaky passing offense that never found it’s rhythm and a constant quarterback problem has destined this team to once again miss the playoffs. The Raiders, well, what do you think I expected them to do? Lose of course. And now they are. That loss to the Steelers last week should put them out of the winners circle – but will it? This is a scrappy team that is getting it done as best they can and the benefits of a sub-par division give them a strong chance at the playoffs. This is a must win for the Raiders, and apologies once again to King Digital Dad CC Chapman, but the Raiders will win this game.
Kansas City at Seattle Line: +1.0
The Chiefs won again last week, are 5-0 at home but 1-4 on the road. Do stats like that matter a bit? We’ll see this week as they travel to the great rainy north to face off against the 5-5 Seahawks. The Hawks are far from out of it thanks once again to being in a crummy division. In fact, they lead the division. They could very well make the playoffs with a losing record. It’s very possible. That doesn’t bode well for the state of the NFC. It’s not going to bode well for the Seahawks when they lose to the Chiefs this weekend.
Philadelphia at Chicago Line: +3.5
This is a tough one. Really, it is. If there is one team in the league I would think that has a chance at containing Vick. The Redskins couldn’t do it, the Giants couldn’t do it so can the Bears do it? It’s not like this kind of play from Vick is a surprise to anyone, he did it when he was with the Falcons. Containing Vick is the first priority for the Bears, everything else after that point is secondary. The Eagles defense gives just enough up for the Bears to take advantage, but they absolutely have to contain Vick. That means corner blitzes with a spy, or some sort of contain. Well, there really is no cure. However, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the Bears to somehow eke out a win this weekend.
St. Louis at Denver Line: -5.0
This would be the crapfest of the week if not for the Rams still having quite a good shot at winning their division. This game is another of those must-win games this week. Bradford has been having a pretty good rookie season, the most important factor is that he’s still standing after 11 weeks of getting roughed up by opponents defenses. The Broncos are nothing without Shanahan, and since he’s moved on this team has just sunk. Yes, they did okay last year but this year – when they were supposed to be better – they weren’t. Orton just looks unhappy to be there. I’m taking the Rams to upset on the road.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore Line: -7.5
Here’s the test for the Bucs – beat a team with a winning record. They have not done so yet, hell they haven’t played but two teams with winning records and lost both times (obviously.) The Ravens are a hell of team to try to prove your mettle against. Aside from my heartfelt dislike for the Bucs, I really don’t think they stand a chance on the road against the Ravens. The defense will be too strong for them, and their defense just won’t be good enough. I think their loss against the Steelers showed us that. Taking the Ravens to win at home.
San Diego at Indianapolis Line: -3.0
How about the Chargers on Monday night against the Broncos? Was it the Broncos crappy pass defense that let Rivers go for 233 yards and four touchdowns? Or perhaps it was just Rivers playing like he’s supposed to be playing. On the flip side, the Colts performed just the opposite, Peyton playing like he’s not supposed to be playing at all. This could be an interesting game, just because both teams are on a different type of rebound. The difference maker in this game is going to be the pass defense – obviously. It’s tough to really look at this game from the outside and think that either team is that much better than the other one. Considering this is a must-win for the Chargers (there are a lot of those this week for sure) I’m going to take the Colts to win. They are playing at home. How can they not?
San Francisco at Arizona Line: +2.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Eh. Who cares?
Well on behalf of all of us here at Digital Dads – have a freaking awesome Thanksgiving. Eat until your belt bursts, watch football, play football, drink beer and deep fry turkeys. If you feel like blowing up half rotten pumpkins in the backyard, go for it. It’s the holiday. Blowing things up should be a tradition, and is a tradition. Boom. See ya Week 13.