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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Doesn't matter who wins. They'll lose to the Packers anyway.

Only four weeks left in the NFL season. The first of many tears has already started to fall from my baby blue eyes. Not just because the NFL is going to be done soon, but because I have to put up with constant NBA highlights. I was really hoping that the NBA would not be coming back, but it is. At least there is hockey and baseball starts in April. I’m thinking too far ahead. For now, we still have four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs to get through. Which means I have a column of picks to write.

Last week I didn’t do fabulous, but it was a positive week. I’m 63% on the season, which is pretty good but not as good as I want. Time to buck up and really think about these picks. Or not think about these picks. I doubt all the people at work who do better than me on their picks every other week really do much analysis. Maybe I over analyze. I have no idea. That takes too much thought to determine if I’m applying too much thought.

In more personal news, I’m currently looking for strong freelance or even part-time(ish) for hire gigs. Writing, editing, content producing, whatever. So you have a need or know someone who does, please have them contact me. That was a link. Directly to email. That’s how I roll. I’m open to anything, anywhere, any bat channel, any bat time. Enough of that, on with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at Dallas Line: -3.5
The 6-6 Giants roll in to face the 7-5 Cowboys in their first meeting this season (can you believe that?) The table for this dinner isn’t set yet, since they still have to play again in week 17. Basically it’s like this, the winner of this series is the one that makes the playoffs from this division. I’m guessing both of these teams finish 10-6. Which means what for this prediction? It means that the Giants win this week and Dallas wins the next match-up in New York? I guess that’s what it means. Which means divisional record is the tie breaker. At the beginning of the season I picked the Cowboys to win the division, and I’m sticking with that. However, I think they way the Giants played against the Packers and all season is much more impressive than the Cowboys. To this point, and this week – the Giants win. Needless to say, I’ll probably be picking the Cowboys in week 17. Giants on the road by a field goal or less.

 

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: -14.0
For some reason I picked Cleveland last week. As a lifelong Browns fan I should have known better that even at home, they weren’t going to beat their former incarnation in the Ravens. Instead, they got pistol whipped like they were wandering the streets of Cincinnati. The Ravens worked them in every aspect of the game, there were no bright points. It was sad. It’ll be even sadder this week as they visit Pittsburgh. Traditionally, the Steeler vs. Browns match-up is a good game, but there is so much disparity between these two teams over the last couple years that there is no doubt that the Steelers will dominate the Browns. After watching the Steelers run, pass and score at will against the Bengals last week, the Browns don’t stand a chance. Steelers at home.

Houston at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Texans are continuously overcoming serious injuries to keep in the game for the playoffs. They have the Titans to watch for, at only two games behind, but they are playing pretty well considering. Yates isn’t terrible and held it together after Johnson was sidelined again this season. The victory over the Falcons was a win for the defense as well, missing Mario Williams. In a year this defense (overall) went from 30th to second. Good job Wade Phillips. The Bengals, while still looking average on both sides of the ball, couldn’t get past the true division test in the Steelers and Ravens. They’ll miss the playoffs. But the Dalton to Green connection is getting exciting to watch. I’m down with that for the future. I think Houston rolls in this week and pulls off a mild upset to secure their spot in the playoffs. Houston on the road.

Minnesota at Detroit Line: -0.0
The downfall of the Lions has almost been as exciting to watch as their surprise start to the season. Schwartz doesn’t seem to care that his team (even without Suh) is committing penalty after penalty, a lot of them in the area of personal fouls. Morons. Their drubbing by the Saints knocked them off the shelf of elite teams for good this season. They really can’t turn it around. The Saints showed that simple double coverage on Megatron really mucks up the offense. Minnesota has a competent defense and I think they can do the same. Losing last week to the Denver Tebows was tough, but the offense turned the ball over at some crucial moments. This should be an interesting game, and I think that if Detroit keeps up it’s penalty ridden ways, the Vikings win this game. Otherwise the Lions win. Do I have to pick a winner with a zero line? Fine. Detroit at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee Line: +4.0
The Titans aren’t out the playoff hunt yet, but they are hoping they continue to be underestimated. Now that CJ2K is finally finding the holes to punch through, they have stepped up their game a notch. 153 yards and two TD’s against Buffalo, and a week before also racking up huge yards it’s undeniable that Johnson is back. Hasselbeck is playing better, finding targets but still managing to throw it to the defense every once in a while. Finding those holes against the Saints defense might prove to be difficult, and they’ll need to if they hope to keep up with the offense. I’m taking the Saints in this game just cause they are the much better team, but I expect the Titans to make it interesting.

Philadelphia at Miami Line: -3.0
Aside from the Lions the other most exciting collapse to watch is that of the Eagles. McCoy is having a great season on the ground, but it doesn’t matter. Vince Young throws interception after interception and Vick can never get the game moving like he promised. It’s a disaster in Philly. Will Andy Reid be out of a job at the end of the season even considering his winning history with the team? Vick was a mistake. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, previously undrafted, will have every right to ask for a nice new contract at the end of the season, regardless of the coach. Assuming he keeps winning. They could finish 8-8, which considering their start would be great for the Dolphins. Reggie Bush has found new life in Miami and I think the Philly defense doesn’t put the brakes on the Dolphins winning ways. Fins to win at home.

Kansas City at NY Jets Line: -9.0
A 38 yard hail mary mixed in with terrible offense, terrible defense and a non-existent running game created a win. An improbable win, but a win and a loss for the Bears. The Chiefs are treading water, with no chance at a winning season and just a sad, sad year. The Jets shouldn’t have a problem with the visiting team this week, since unlike the Bears their team is more than just two guys. Of course, the Jets are the kings of week to week inconsistency on defense and offense, but if even one of those sides sparks just a bit, the win should come easy. Jets to win at home.

New England at Washington Line: +9.0
The difference between the Packers defense and the Patriots defense is turnover margin. While both allow a good chunk of scoring, the Packers defense forces a lot of turnovers that result, either directly or indirectly (in the hands of the offense) in points. The Patriots defense is horrid, making the Colts look moderately good in the passing game last week. This is going to cost them in the playoffs, when they have to face teams like the Ravens or Steelers that can easily take advantage of those defensive holes. I think even Washington this week takes advantage and keeps the game close. while they lost their shoes to the Jets, for the first half of the game they looked like they were in it. Obviously, Patriots to win these week, but they don’t make it look easy.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +3.0
Cam Newton, rookie of the year? That’s the consideration, though wouldn’t the biggest an impact a player could have on a team be winning? He’s doing a little bit of that, but the best that the Panthers can hope for is a third place finish in the division. The future looks bright for this team and if they can beat Atlanta this week, perhaps the immediate future will look real bright. The Falcons lost against Houston with the inability to run against that defense and a late penalty killed the tying drive. The Panthers don’t have that strong of a defense, and while they whipped up on the Bucs last week, that was the Bucs. Look for the Panthers to come out on all cylinders, but the Falcons to prevail late or in overtime. Falcons to win.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Chance are that wherever you are in the country this game will be blacked out, thank your lucky stars for that. The Jaguars seemed like they could get something together after inexplicably beating the Ravens but never did. Getting whupped by the Chargers on Monday night was just another nail in the coffin for Del Rio. What? Del Rio is already gone? Oh. Yeah. MJD will run all over the Bucs. This is the point in the season where it gets hard to pick game cause the match-ups are either too good, or too shitty to care about. Let’s be analytical here though. The Bucs run defense, as Carolina proved, is shit. That’s the ONE highlight of the Jags. Jags to win at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore Line: -17.0
For a team that competed with the Patriots, a seventeen point line has got to be an insult right? Well, consider that while the Patriots have shitty pass defense, the Ravens have a superior pass and rush defense. Now that Flacco has finally learned to hand the ball to Ray Rice more often, the Ravens are looking unstoppable. I mean, at for the moment. The playoffs could be another issue altogether. The Colts, in their “suck for luck” campaign have some hope in Dan Orlovsky – just kidding. Remember him from the 0-16 Lions? Yeah, that’s probably some bad karma right there. I’d be surprised if Peyton is even on the Colts staff next year and not working the sideline with his brother as a QB coach or something. Ravens to win.

Chicago at Denver Line: -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I realize that this isn’t a true upset special, as the line favors the Broncos – but no one else does. Many of us who have man love for Tim Tebow are rooting for the Broncos, but the haters are just waiting for him to fail. If he makes it to the playoffs (and he will) they’ll be biting their lips waiting to see if he blows it. And if he does (he won’t) they’ll accuse him of not being clutch or whatever. The haters (including Elway) will find a way to bring Tebow down. But he won’t have any of it. It’s not about him, and he’s made that clear. Last week it was about him in the second half though, with 202 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He only rushed four times during the game. Surprised? The Bears will be too. John Fox has done an excellent job adjusting the offense to his QB’s strengths, rather than forcing him to learn a new system mid-season. Coach of the year for sure. Meanwhile, Martz as offensive coordinator for the Bears has done a shitty job adjusting anything for the constantly struggling Caleb Hanie. His “west coast” offense is not eay for a rookie to pick up, much less mid-season. Perhaps Cutler comes back this game, perhaps not but with Forte out for the season most likely – the Bears are done. Doesn’t matter, I was going to pick the Broncos no matter what. Broncos at home.

San Francisco at Arizona Line: +4.0
With a month to go in the season, the Niners have already locked up the division, even though technically Arizona and the Seahawks are in the wild-card hunt (is the NFC that bad this year?) That being said, while Arizona pulled off an improbable victory against the Cowboys, attempting to do that against the Niners is going to be a bit more difficult. The Niners defense is tighter than a… I’ll leave that metaphor to your imagination. The Cardinals won by finding the glaring holes in the Cowboys run defense and because Romo sucks. The Niners keep winning on great defense and killer passing from young Alex Smith who is on his way to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Niners to win.

Oakland at Green Bay Line: -11.5
Meh. The Packers might toy with the Raiders for a little while, letting them score some points. The defense might give up some points, but they can score too. The Raiders have been decimated with injuries and penalties. That ass kicking they took at the hands of the Dolphins also helped them lose their standing in the division. They aren’t out of it yet, but they are this week. The Packers are unstoppable, especially by an inferior team like the Raiders. Should be fun for Palmer, just cause he gets to meet Rodgers, the QB that Palmer could have been had he been just a tad better. Packers to win.

Buffalo at San Diego Line: -7.0
What to say about the Bills? I think the loss of Fred Jackson hurt this team more than previously assumed. Spiller has been carrying the load, and doing alright, but the offense hasn’t been the same. Not to mention the defense suddenly giving up big plays late in the game. Last week against the Titans they gave up tons of yards to CJ2K and while the Chargers don’t have explosive a runner, Tolbert isn’t terrible in the backfield. The question for the Chargers is the consistency, something that hasn’t been there. Breaking a six game losing streak the Chargers now absolutely have to win to think about breaking even for the season. I’m taking the Bills in this game just because I don’t think the Chargers are for real this season. I could be wrong, because the Chargers have “charged” up late in the season in previous seasons, only to fall short come the playoffs. But those charges were contingent on the Broncos losing, which I don’t think they are going to do. Bills to somehow prevail on the road.

St. Louis at Seattle Line: -0.0
Meh. The Rams are nothing short of terrible, and the Seahawks somehow still have a chance at making the playoffs. They beat the Eagles, but so what? The Rams shouldn’t be much of a challenge, but who knows with this team? Taking the home team cause it’s easy. Seahawks at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 13

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Tebowing. All the kids are doing it.

How was your Thanksgiving? Did the themed post last week do you right? I sure hope so. I went a mildly exciting 11-5 in my picks last week. That brings me to 64% on the season, so that’s not too shabby. Another couple good weeks and I could easily be up around 67%. That’s important to me. Well, now that we are at Week 13, some of my playoff predictions are looking like they are coming true, some other ones are looking like complete busts. I do what I can.

So once again, the big talk this week is about Tim Tebow winning another game, this time against the struggling Chargers. How is Norv Turner still a coach in the NFL? The guy is terrible. The Denver defense has to be given full credit for giving Tebow the opportunity (several times) to win the game. I don’t think it’s just a matter of “stepping up,” I think that these guys, Von Miller and crew, are just getting that much better. With the defense performing as it is, and Tebow being Tebow and coach Fox running with it, it would not surprise me if the Broncos steal the division from the Raiders.

This is the part of the season where it gets really hard to make accurate picks, mostly because there are teams I WANT to win so other teams miss the playoffs. This causes me, and many other pundits, to make mistakes with the picks and over analyze things. Whatever. I picked Miami to beat the Cowboys last week. They lost by one fucking point. But had they won, I would have looked like a freaking genius. Now you see why I can’t pick against Tim Tebow the rest of the year, the same reason why his haters can’t stop hating. They are worried that if they do, their hate will be proven right after they’ve switched sides.

Featured Game

Denver at Minnesota Line: -1.0
What can I say? Tebow is the real deal. I pointed out last week that his stats were better than Elway in his first eight games. He plays on Sunday, yet the haters still line up to bring him down. The guy plays for his team, and as proven by a recent locker room speech, is an inspiration. In fact, I just made my own Tebow to sit on my desk and inspire me all day long. He’s humble, hard working and giving. In every interview he credits his team for the wins, rather than himself, and that’s true. The defense has stepped up lately, notching them another win. So now they travel to face the Vikings, who are doing horribly under another rookie QB, but one that is getting the accolades that Tebow isn’t because he’s a better passer – but he’s losing! Ponder isn’t terrible, and he’s developing a rythm with his receivers, but it’s not enough. And with Peterson injured (he’s best to stay injured to avoid risking further injury) the Vikings are done. Their defense can still stand up, but that’s not enough, not against the Tebow magic. I can’t pick against him at this point. Whatever it is, he’s got it. Broncos to win on the road.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Philadelphia at Seattle Line: +2.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Eagles are done. Put a fork in them. Andy Reid will be out of a job next year and whomever gave that huge contract to Vick should be shot in the thigh. Vince Young has been under center the last two games, and while he hasn’t been doing terrible, it hasn’t been enough. Getting torn apart by the Patriots last week didn’t help. The Seahawks suffered a similar fate, simply rolling over on defense and playing like a limp rag. This team has just given up, and that was evident on the offensive side of the ball. No running game, absolutely no deep passing game either. Thankfully, this match-up means nothing and it’s on Thursday night, so I don’t even have to watch it. Eagles to win by a narrow margin. Though I want to pick the Hawks, just so the Eagles sink further.

Tennessee at Buffalo Line: -1.5
The Titans are not out of it yet. They still have a slight chance to keep winning and beat out Houston, provided the Texans lose a few games. I don’t think that is going to happen though. The Titans played a terrible game last week with tons of turnovers and sloppy play by Hasselbeck. I don’t think he does good in the weather. They gave the Bucs every chance to win. I really think they should give Jake Locker the ball for the rest of the season, especially this week out in the cold at Buffalo. The Bills are off to a disappointing finish, all but eliminated from the playoffs after a hot start. Winning against the Jets would have helped, but one stupid penalty and two dropped TD passes by Stevie Johnson (elite receiver you are not) gave the Jets time to come back and win. However, I still think the Bills are a good team, they just need to get their shit together. They win this week at home against the Titans.

Kansas City at Chicago Line: -7.5
This is the part of the season where I don’t feel that a 3000 word column is necessary for some of these teams. Like the Chiefs. Clearly, they are not where they want to be this year with Cassel injured and Palko at the helm. However, the rest of the team hasn’t exactly stepped up, until last week. The defense held the Steelers to a mere 16 points. That’s pretty good. Sadly, some pussy ass play calling (kicking a field goal from the Steelers 22 yard line) kept the Chiefs down. They know they are done, but the NFL won’t let them just roll over and die. Speaking about rolling over and dying, are the Bears done? Hopefully Cutler tapes up his finger and gets back in there, cause Hanie seems to enjoy throwing to the wrong team. Turnovers killed the Bears last week against the Raiders, but their defense did what it could, keeping the Raiders kicking field goals. This week, they get a respite though. Bears at home.

Oakland at Miami Line: -3.0
The Raiders are one game, one measly little game ahead of the Broncos for the AFC West. Can they hold out and take the division? Their performance against the struggling Bears was no indicator. Once in the redzone, the offense was lethargic at best. Their defense kept the Bears in the game, giving up just enough. It wasn’t a dominating performance. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had a strong showing against the much superior Cowboys but left Romo too much time at the end to drive for a game winning field goal. The Dolphins lost by one point, but the defense was strong, intercepting Romo twice. Miami is favored in this game, and I don’t think it’s too wild to suggest that they will in fact, win it. Miami at home.

Indianapolis at New England Line: -21.0
Yeah, Patriots by a bunch. Upset special! Just kidding. This classic annual match-up has no steam this year. It’s Painter vs. Brady in a showdown that will resemble Rocky vs. a hanging side of beef. The beef is gonna get tenderized. If you have any Patriots players on your fantasy team, even second stringers, play them. Some might hope that the Colts put up a fight, try to look strong but as proven last week against Carolina, they are just done. Suck for Luck right? Pats at home.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Line: -7.0
Last time the Bengals met the Steelers it was on their turf and guess what? They lost. They roll in after (get this) a tough win at home against the Browns. Dalton looked good, but the Browns played them tough and almost pulled off the upset, riding a tie until the last seconds. The Bengals are a surprisingly winning team, but they have benefited from not playing the Steelers or Ravens until the end of the year. Which is what is happening now. The Steelers played a tough game against the hapless Chiefs and (get this) barely won. They did though, and that’s all that matters. Expect more of the same in this game, Ben being shoved to the ground plenty, dusting off and throwing a TD to Wallace. Steelers are still too tough overall for the Bengals. The Bengals best bet is to run the ball right at the front line, who haven’t been the best against the run this year. AJ Green does have that star factor that can change a game, but I think the Steelers win out in the end. Steelers at home.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Line: -3.0
I was laughing out loud at the way the Bucs performed last week. One second, they were causing turnovers, the next they were turning the ball over. It was disgusting and laughable. Which is why I was laughing. Bucs fans have got to be frustrated with the way this team is performing, they have so many good weapons and a young defense (save for Barber,) they should be firing on all cylinders and competing with the Falcons and the Saints for the division. But they aren’t. At the beginning of the season I predicted them to make the playoffs. I’d like to amend that, and say the Panthers, who whupped up on the Colts last week, will finish ahead of the Bucs – placing them dead last. Which means the Bucs will lose the rest of their games and the Panthers won’t. Starts right here. Strong offense from Cam Newton (I would say Rookie MVP, but he’s not winning and Tebow is) will take this one from the Bucs, who won’t be able to keep up or stop the run. Panthers to win on the road.

NY Jets at Washington Line: +3.0
The Jets are still in the hunt for the playoffs after sneaking past the Bills last week, who had every opportunity to win that game. But they didn’t and now the Jets really need to get their shit together and win. They can do that at Washington if they can keep Helu in check and not piss off Grossman. Did you see him against the Seahawks last week? They challenged his shit and he drove right back down the field and made the Seahawks defense look the fool. I didn’t see that coming. Grossman can be good when he wants. The Jets defense, once the most glorious in the league is getting beat on the corners, which is odd cause that’s where their best defensive guys are. The secondary steps up, the Jets win easy. Jets to win on the road.

Atlanta at Houston Line: +3.0
Either Atlanta was toying with the vikings last week or they really did have some problems in the secondary. While the score wasn’t close in the end, and the Falcons had a great goal line stand, they allowed the Vikings to stage a comeback with some deep passing. Thankfully, the Texans are down to their third string QB in Yates and have Kellen Clemens waiting just in case Yates gets injured too. This team can’t catch a break. First Johnson, then Foster, now Schaub and Leinart. Good news for Houston, the Colts still suck. They still have the Titans nipping at their heels though. I think Atlanta takes this game just cause Matt Ryan plays like Aaron Rodgers when he’s in air conditioning. Falcons on the road, but Houston is not out of it yet.

Baltimore at Cleveland Line: +7.0 UPSET SPECIAL??
I haven’t picked an upset special yet. Could this be it? The Browns came out fighting last week against the Bengals and actually looked like they could have won, and should have. But they didn’t, losing another close game and sending the happy Bengals to Pittsburgh to lose this week. The Ravens and the Steelers are going to end up having an all out brawl for the playoffs, and the Browns are that little bug that’s in the way. They have a real chance to play spoiler right now, and I really, really want to pick them. I was just about to talk myself out of doing so, but the Ravens lost to the freaking Seahawks. Sure, they won last week, beating the second best team in the NFC. So they are hot and cold. Is this a cold week? Obviously I’m trying to talk myself into picking the Browns as this weeks upset special. Ugh. Yes, I’m picking the Browns to upset. I’ll probably regret it, but I have to.

Green Bay at NY Giants Line: +7.5
The New York Football Giants got rocked by the Saints last week. Just absolutely destroyed. Both sides of the ball the Giants weren’t playing well, though there were some bright spots with the receivers. Cruz had another good game, but turnovers and a severe lack of defense kept them from keeping in the game. But hey, they beat the Patriots right? Can they play spoiler for Green Bay? I really don’t think so. The one thing that Green Bay needed work on was the defense, and they are getting a bit better, ready for the playoffs. Magic number is three (games to win or Niners to lose) to shore up home field advantage. Green Bay is too good for the Giants, but they Giants will hang in there. Packers to win on the road.

Dallas at Arizona Line: +4.5
The Cowboys, as I predicted at the beginning of the year, are going to win the NFC East. Mark my words, do whatever you have to do. They aren’t playing lights out football, and certainly had a battle against Miami, but they are winning and that’s all that matters. With the Giants sucking a big loss and facing Green Bay this week, the Cowboys have the chance to put more distance between them and the only other team that can compete in the division. That would be the Giants. The Cowboys are offensively strong and only on defense are they showing some weakness, oh, and Romo from time to time. Traveling to Arizona shouldn’t be much of an issue though, and the defense should be able to get plenty of practice against Skelton and crew. Note to the Cowboys special teams though – do not kick directly to Patrick Peterson. Dallas to win on the road.

St. Louis at San Francisco Line: -14.0
Rams suck. I mean, really suck. They might have more wins, but they make the Colts look like a good team. Too many mistakes, dropped passes, poor pass protection, no running game (with Stephen Jackson even!) Not to mention the defense and special teams. Ugh. Niners to win. Done.

Detroit at New Orleans Line: -9.0
With Suh suspended for two games (should be the rest of the season to teach that guy a lesson) the Detroit defense is taking another hit. As dirty as he is, he’s good and is a strong reason why that defense did well for a little while. Lately, they’ve been playing with more aggression than skill and after watching the Packers pick them apart, I have little faith that they’ll be able to stop the Saints offense. Too many weapons, too much time for Drew Brees and too many awesome coaches on crutches on the sidelines. Either way, I think it’s just about time to stick in a fork in Detroit. Saints at home easy.

San Diego at Jacksonville Line: +3.0
This is the Monday night game? I’d rather someone give me a Sandusky Special. Well, maybe not, but either way – this game is shit. The Chargers are on a very special losing streak because it could be the last for Norv Turner, who should have been fired 100 games ago. Meanwhile, the Jags pulled rookie Gabbart last week in favor of Luke McCown then finally fired Jack Del Rio, then sold the team and now might move. Turmoil indeed! This is a match-up that no-one gives a shit about, which is why it’s probably the most unpredictable. The Chargers HAVE to win in order to even think about the playoffs. The Jags could really give a shit at this point, which makes them dangerous. I don’t think the Chargers, traveling from coast to coast, will be able to stop the run. MJD and the Jags win at home on Monday night.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 11

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

My picks last week were like Vick's ribs

So last week, sucked. Let’s not talk about last week. It makes me very, very sad. Like super sad. Like mega super ultra sad. Let me just say this, I have never had a week as bad as last week. I’m tracking stats, so I’ll look at them next week. Until that point, I’m going to go soak my head. I’m supposed to be an expert right? Apparently not. So, that has kind of made me a little crazy. This week, I’m going off the deep end with my picks.

In other news, right now it’s around 6am pacific time as I’m writing this. The only reason that is significant is that I’m in Los Angeles attending the L.A. Auto Show. I wasn’t sure if there was even going to be a column this week, due to my schedule. But I can’t let my biggest fan @mbletsch down. So, I have about an hour to write this, so I’m going to knock down the normal 3000 word column and do the quick version. Each game will still be represented, my analysis is just going to be a bit more brief. So, let’s get it on! I’m getting hungry for some trendy breakfast.

Featured Game

Philadelphia at NY Giants Line: -3.5
This game is featured cause this is where the Eagles disappear. This where Sportscenter stops talking about the mathematical posibility of the Eagles making the playoffs. It’s not going to happen. They are going to lose this game, with Vince Young stepping in for a rib broken Mike Vick, and they are going to fade into obscurity. Good bye Eagles. Fuck off. Giants to win.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

NY Jets at Denver Line: +5.5
Vegas has taken out an over/under on Tebows completions at 11. I’m taking the over. He’s going to have to pass against the Jets. Their mega blitz is going to push him out of the box like crazy. That being said, the Broncos have the magic of Tebow and for that reason, and that reason alone I’m taking them to win at home. Yep.

Jacksonville at Cleveland Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Who cares? The Jags beat the Colts last week because Painter sucks. The Browns missed a game winning field goal because of the fucking long snapper. You have ONE job dude, and you messed it up. Go sell used cars. Browns to win at home.

Carolina at Detroit Line: -7.0
Detroit has lost three of the last four. What is going on with this team? They are falling fast, but they return home to that very loud crowd. Let’s see if Cam Newton can fight off the noise of the crowd, and the toughest defense he’s faced yet. However, that defense has been shit lately. I’m sticking with the Lions to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay Line: -14.0
Ha. This line is too generous. If the Bucs don’t lose by 35 points in Green Bay I’ll be surprised. I’m sure this young team would love to come back and get an upset win, but it’s not going to happen. Green Bay is your repeat Superbowl champion. I have no choice but to predict that happening. Green Bay to win at home.

Buffalo at Miami Line: -2.0
This match-up is one of my favorites every year. These two teams play each other like it’s a fucking playoff game. The rest of the year doesn’t matter when these rivals meet. While the Dolphins are on a hot streak right now, and the Bills are on a low streak they are meeting somewhere in the middle. I’m going off the diving board head first and picking the Dolphins to win. I have no idea why, just doing it.

Oakland at Minnesota Line: -1.0
Vikings aren’t looking too bad. I mean, they got smoked by the Packers last week, but they aren’t sucking it up really. Ponder is showing great progression as a starting QB. The Raiders, are winning their division but only by one game. The whole division behind them is tied. They have to win this game. They won’t. Peterson is going to slice them up. I’m taking the Vikings to win at home.

Dallas at Washington Line: +8.0
Did you see the Cowboys last week? They were dominant. Did you see the Redskins last week? Name their starting QB. Didn’t think so. Shanahan is losing it, his decision making suggests dementia. The Cowboys are going to make the Redskins home crowd all sad and shit. Cowboys to win.

Cincinnati at Baltimore Line: -9.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
The Ravens went to Seattle and lost. A week after beating the Steelers for the second time this year. Finally, they are back home after their stupid west coast trip and welcome the Bengals. The Bengals lost to the Steelers last week, knocking them back to reality. Can they hurdle the Ravens this week? I think this is the upset brewing. I think the Ravens offense is confused right now for some reason, and Dalton held it together against the Steelers, it wasn’t a blowout. It was a loss. I’m taking the Bengals to upset.

Seattle at St. Louis Line: -3.0
The Seahawks surprisingly beat the Ravens last week, and the Rams got lucky against the Browns. Who cares? The Niners seal up the division with a win today, finally ending the sadness of a losing team getting to the playoffs from the NFC West. For the rest of the year, these two teams are playing for second place, with no chance of smelling the ass crack of the playoffs. Who cares who wins this game? Whatever. I’m taking the Rams.

Arizona at San Francisco Line: -10.0
Meh. Niners to win and complete their amazing rise to power. Next stop, playoffs.

Tennessee at Atlanta Line: -6.5
The Oilers, er, Titans are the up and down, hot and cold team of the year. They had a great week last week, but who knows how they are going to be this week? The Falcons blew it in overtime to the Saints. You’ve gotta run some fucking misdirection on fourth and short plays! It was a good decision, just bad execution. I think the Falcons hold it together this week and rebound with a strong win, staying in the race for the NFC South. Falcons at home.

San Diego at Chicago Line: -4.0
The Chargers are the other hot and cold team. Actually, they are just cold. They are painful to watch, and I’m glad I’m not a Chargers fan. The good news is they are in a 3 way tie for second place in the division, so they still have a shot. They don’t have a shot against the Bears at home though, who have been dominating lately. That win against the Lions was fucking huge. HUGE. Bears to win at home.

Kansas City at New England Line: -14.5
Upset special… just kidding. The Patriots are looking more like the Patriots, but what the hell is up with the defense lately? They are making it harder for Brady and the offense. And he finally passed down the field to Ochocinco. You have to use that deep threat more often to open up the play action, just like using the run. Do it. Patriots to win.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Indianapolis
The Colts, ugh. Suck for Luck right?

Bye Week at New Orleans
The Saints still have some work to do if they want to win the division. They have to keep the Falcons at bay. Cause the wild card is not coming from this division. It’s going to be the Bears or the Lions.

Bye Week at Pittsburgh
The Steelers can’t coast to the division title this year. The Ravens and the Bengals are making it a fight. A fight worth watching. Like two hot chicks at a frat party fighting in the pool. Take it off! Take it off!

Bye Week at Houston
Everyone keeps saying that this is the year for Houston. Until Schaub got injured last week. Now, he’ll probably be out for the season. So can Houston keep winning? I think so, because it’s been the running game and the defense that has been winning games.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 9

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011

Will the Bucs be celebrating against the Saints again?


So, I picked the Denver Tebows to beat the Lions. In my heart of hearts I knew it was wrong, I was wrong and I paid the price by losing a correct pick. It was a chance I was willing to take, just in case. The truth is, as bad as Tebow was, the rest of the team was just as shitty. So he doesn’t know how to throw away the ball and has terrible mechanics, okay. He’s got a spark, but that’s not enough. I’m still on the Tebow train, but the offensive line has got to get it together to give him an extra second. The Lions said they were coming for him, and they did. Of course, it was a good week to have the Lions defense in fantasy football, as I do. Heh.

Overall I went a dismal 8-5. When the blond chicks at work who pick at random get 10 right, you know you are doing something wrong. It’s like when you take a girl bowling and she does that under the legs thing and gets strikes, and here you are shooting from the right side with a spin on the ball and you come up short. Kind of proves chaos theory eh? I’m 76-40 on the season (66%) so that’s not too bad. I really want to stay at or above that percentage, so the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Which means second guessing my gut. Not smart, but gotta do what I gotta do.

I’m going to do something a little different this week. I’m going to immediately pick a winner, then do my analysis than either change the impromptu pick or stick with it. Either way, it should be clear at the end of each paragraph which team I’m going with. I just want to see how accurate my gut (first pick) is compared to my pick after analysis and second guessing. And instead of doing them one by one, I’m going to do all my gut picks at once, down the line. And… go!

Featured Game:

Tampa Bay at New Orleans Line: -7.5
Gut Pick: Tampa Bay The Bucs have not done me well this season, and now they come off a bye and travel to New Orleans to fight for the division. The Bucs got a little help last week as the Saints rolled over for the Rams, which tells me that they were over confident coming into the game, and looking past the game to this one. While I doubt the Saints will play as badly as they played against the Rams, I expect them to over compensate a little bit with some over aggressive play calling, which is sometimes the norm for them, but doesn’t always work against the Bucs. This should be a strong game on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to come down to trick goal line plays and special teams handling. I’d like to see the Bucs go after the Saints on punts and extra points. I think that’s where the difference in this game are going to be. So that being said, I’m taking the Saints to win. Look, I know they are both good teams in the NFC but the Saints at home have a clear advantage and splitting the series this year sounds like a good compromise. Saints at home.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

NY Jets at Buffalo Line: -1.5
Gut Pick: Buffalo The Jets talk a big game, but have yet to really show themselves. Their defense, and specifically Darell Revis have bailed them out when they needed them the most. Their win against San Diego was impressive, but came too late in the game. Especially if they want to contain the Bills, who have established quite a running game with Freddy Jackson. Not to mention the play of the defense, shutting down passing routes and pressuring QB’s left and right. I’m sticking with my gut on this one though, as the Bills are playing better all around football. Bills at home.

Seattle at Dallas Line: -12.5
Gut Pick: Dallas This season has not been easy for the Cowboys. Last week they were terrible. Their defense couldn’t keep up with the well prepared Eagles offense. They made McCoy look like a fucking god as he shredded their run defense and Romo couldn’t keep his feet under him. This team is less than inconsistent, they are bad. The Seahawks meanwhile seem to be coming around a little bit, now that they have Jackson back at QB but losing like they did to the Bungles hasn’t helped their game any. The defense is a strong point, but they don’t have the offensive weapons to get it done. I’d love to pick them to upset, but Cowboys to win at home.

Atlanta at Indianapolis Line: +8.0
Gut Pick: Atlanta Without a win and looking quite pathetic, the Colts are nothing without Peyton. Plenty of teams have injuries, and still play strong. What happened to the dubious Colts defensive front? What happened to the running game? What happened to this team besides the loss of Peyton? If he doesn’t get some MVP votes, then something is wrong in the universe. They need to win eventually right? I don’t think it’s going to be against the Falcons though. Matt Ryan likes playing in a dome, no matter where it is, Detroit or wherever. The Falcons run game is going to be too much for the Colts by themselves. And the rush will have Painter running for his life almost every snap. Falcons on the road.

Miami at Kansas City Line: -5.0
Gut Pick: Kansas City For the second week in a row the Dolphins held a lead, then gave it up like a discount hooker in an airport bathroom. While I said I won’t pick them to win at all this season (playing the odds) I do think they, unlike the Colts, are actually trying to win. There has got to be a breaking point though. It’s not only the offense having no longevity (all you need is an hour) but it’s bad coaching decisions too. The Chiefs on the other hand, looked to be having a bad season, then suddenly waking up and realizing that they are in a so-so division and have a serious chance at it. This is a win they really need if they want to stay in the race. Which is why it’s ripe for an upset. I’m not picking it though. KC at home.

San Francisco at Washington Line: +4.5
Gut Pick: San Francisco Wake up! You are not in an alternate reality! The Niners are 6-1. They haven’t been this good since Steve Young left. Not only that, but they will most likely win the division with a winning record. Quick, off the top of your head, when was the last time that happened in the NFC West? I don’t know, but it’s something to celebrate. Harbaugh is finally the coach that the Niners were looking for and they’ve turned Alex Smith into a franchise QB and somehow sparked Crabtree to start playing to his potential. The offense is clicking and I don’t see them slowing down, even on a long trip to the East coast to face the Redskins. The Redskins are a dismal 3-4, but so is everyone in the NFC East save for the Giants. However, after last weeks shut-out I don’t see them bouncing back against another strong team. Niners to win on the road.

Cleveland at Houston Line: -10.5
Gut Pick: Cleveland Of course my gut says the Browns. In my mind, they never lose. And this is a way I can pick them without actually picking them. The Browns entered the season with high expectations then the Madden curse took a hold of Peyton Hillis, the backup RB hasn’t done shit and Colt McCoy isn’t looking quite like Elway as he did last year. The bright spot is the defense, which is doing it’s job keeping games close, but that’s not enough if the offense isn’t doing shit. Heden is a beast out there in the secondary, but he can’t win games by himself. The Texans are much too good for that. They whipped up on the Titans last week and should be running away with the NFC South any day now. The Browns are just something they stepped in on the way. Texans to win.

Cincinnati at Tennessee Line: -3.0
Gut Pick: Cincinnati Shhh… don’t tell anyone. The Bengals are 5-2 and have the leagues #2 ranked defense. Last week special teams added to the fantastic ride of the Bengals season with two punts returned for TD’s. Dalton has looked like a 5 year veteran, making very few rookie mistakes. Still though, the Bengals still have to beat the Ravens and Steelers who they have to play twice yet this season. That could change everything. They need to rack up as many wins as possible before that point. The Titans, sigh, after getting a huge contract Chris Johnson has been shit, and the injury of Kenny Britt hurt this team even more. However, they aren’t out of it yet, and even after the drubbing at the hands of their division rival Texans, the Titans still have a shot, putting down the Colts last week. Johnson still didn’t get his run game going, as bad as the Colts are, so the problem is him. I’m still hoping each week that he’ll wake up, as long as I’m not playing against him in fantasy football. I’m sticking with my gut here, which I think is going to be a high scoring back and forth affair, with Cincy prevailing due to defensive play. Bengals on the road.

Denver at Oakland Line: -7.0
Gut Pick: Oakland You don’t need much of a gut to predict this after seeing how Tebow performed last week. I think I said what needed to be said in the opening paragraph. He’s getting ripped in the media but that loss was because of a complete failure as a team by the Denver Broncos. This week they roll to division rival Oakland who will be giving Palmer another go. Now, I’ve always liked Palmer, as much as I hate the Bengals. I’ve always thought he was a good QB with an accurate arm and good pocket presence, and he is. But the guy stepped away from the game, and I think that hurt him when it comes to developing a cadence with a new team. It’s been two weeks though, thanks to the bye and I think with that and working non-stop with receivers and this being a home game (cutting out travel time) Palmer will be much better this week. I’d like to see Tebow put up a fight though. Oakland to win at home.

New York at New England Line: -8.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Gut Pick: New England Was it a mistake to pick the Patriots to beat the Steelers last week? Maybe. I don’t think so, but everyone else seemed to pick the Steelers to win. Was there something I was missing? Either way, the Patriots offense was shut down for the most part, and they looked human. Now they are back at home, where Brady has lost what – once? Some crazy stat like that. Picking against them almost feels like playing the lottery. You smirk, but know that the odds are completely astronomical. While the Patriots are my gut pick here, I really want to pick the Giants to upset. The Giants seem to either sink down, or rise up to the level of their opponent and their defense has been pressuring QB’s all season and pretty boy Brady was certainly affected by the Steelers pass rush last week. This would be a tough, and huge win for the Giants if they pull it off. Brady was 6-1 against the Steelers and that stat got busted. I’m picking the Giants to upset and bust another stat.

St. Louis at Arizona Line: -0.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK
Gut Pick: St. Louis What do I need to say here that you don’t already know? The Rams finally got their first win, inexplicably upsetting the Saints with killer defense. If they play even marginally like that, the Cardinals will have a tough time keeping up. While neither of these teams are going to win the NFC West, they may as well battle it out for the bottom rung. Kolb has been a complete bust in Arizona, the guy is not a starting QB. Of course, he suffers from lack of protection, so it might not be all him. They did well against the Ravens, pulling at 24-6 lead at halftime but blew it. Coffee is only for closers! Rams to win on the road.

Green Bay at San Diego Line: +6.0
Gut Pick: Green Bay The opening line for this game was 5.5 in favor of the Chargers. I laughed, checked again and saw that it had quickly flipped. Turnovers, bad defense, Rivers fumbling the ball away at a crucial point in the game and throwing two interceptions contributed to their loss against the Chiefs on Monday night. What a debacle. The Chargers played about the same against the Jets, they let the other team beat them on defense, so what chance do they have against the Packers? The Packers are playing all around great football, they make the right decisions and adjustments. Do I expect the Chargers to put up a bit of a fight? Sure. Do I expect them to win? Hell no. Packers to win on the road.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Line: -3.0
Gut Pick: Pittsburgh One of the best night games is the Ravens and Steelers. This week, they are at the Steelers, where the Patriots were sent home with their tails between their legs last week. As the season goes on, the Steelers get tougher and tougher. The Ravens staged an epic comeback against the Cardinals, but that was the Cardinals. Of course most teams don’t play the same week to week, but the Steelers are one team that is only getting better as the season progresses. The thing about them is, you can sack Ben like 60 times a game and he’ll just shake it off and keep throwing. Really, so will Flacco. He’s got the moves. The fight for the AFC North starts here (but watch the rear view for the Bengals.) Steelers to win at home.

Chicago at Philadelphia Line: -7.0
Gut Pick: Chicago The only reason the Bears are winning is because of the superior play of Matt Forte. The problem is that the Bears haven’t given Forte a new contract and they are running him ragged in the meantime. This wouldn’t be a problem if they gave him what he’s worth. Because it’s already in his head, which means at any time it could affect his game. Of course, it’s a catch-22 as if his play declines, his chances for a huge contract do too. So he’ll play hard. Philly’s LeSean McCoy had a huge running day against the Cowboys, but the Bears actually have a better run defense, when they are on. When they aren’t, they aren’t. It’s no secret I can’t stand Philly this year and want them to fail, but I don’t think I can justifiably pick them to lose at home this week after seeing what they did to the Cowboys last week. Philly to win at home.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Carolina
Hey, not a bad first half of the season for Cam Newton. Can you tell this guy is a rookie? Cause I sure can’t. That being said, he can’t do it alone, which their latest loss kind of proves.

Bye Week at Detroit
Relax. Suh is meeting with the league to go over the rules, because he doens’t want to break them. The Lions D is playing dirty lately, and they need to knock that off before it ruins their perception. Not to mention getting the attention of the officials in-game.

Bye Week at Jacksonville
The Jags are about as fun to watch as a turtle getting run over by a cloud. BORING. Is Jack Del rio still the coach? Who cares?

Bye Week at Minnesota
The Vikings have to be feeling pretty good going into this bye week. Unlike the Broncos, the rest of the team has risen up to help transition Ponder to the big leagues, and he’s fared well. While we won’t see the Vikes in the playoffs, we may see them with a winning season after all.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 7

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

Can Matt Ryan lead his offense against the Lions to victory?

Another week passes by in this glorious NFL season, and another sub-par selection of winners. I went 8-5 last week, no thanks to the Bills choking. All you had to do was run the fucking ball to kill some clock, then kick the game winning field goal. But no, you are going to pass to the exact same receiver on the same pattern that your last interception came on. That was idiotic. Didn’t Fitzpatrick go to Harvard? Meanwhile, the Bucs are proving me wrong every week, which if you’ve read this column for more than a year is an annual occurrence. I don’t know what it is, I cannot pick that team correctly. Maybe it’s cause I hate them so very very much. Then, the Lions lost in a game full of mistakes on both sides. So those are three picks right there that I really wish would have gone my way. Well, if wishes were turds, I’d have to flush. So that brings me to 61-29 (68%) on the season. In the big picture, that ain’t bad. Here’s what the ESPN guys are doing:

Allen 59 31 66%
Golic 66 24 73%
Hoge 64 26 71%
Jaws 61 23 73%
Mortensen 54 36 60%
Schefter 61 29 68%
Schlereth 63 27 70%
Wichersham 62 28 69%
Accuscore 64 26 71%

Really that math should be recalculated, as some of them haven’t picked all the games. There have been 90 games, yet Jaws has only picked 84. I just want to beat Accuscore by the end of the year. The worst picks by any so-called expert have to belong to this guy. 

It should also be noted, scoring was way down last week, I think that the defensive secondaries of most teams are finally starting to wake the fuck up. A lot less blown coverages and big defensive plays are showing that the lockout hangover might have finally worn off. Now, on with the picks!

Featured Game

Atlanta at Detroit Line: -4.5
Well, I was wrong about the Lions. I said they’d be undefeated come Thanksgiving, but a lack of run defense and some serious red-zone penalties kept them behind San Francisco last week. Even though the Niners gave them plenty of chances to bounce back. The Lions could be in trouble this week (and my fantasy team) as Javid Best might be sidelined after suffering a concussion last week. They shipped in Ronnie Brown from Philly, but he’s yet to pass the physical. So there goes the running game. But Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the tight ends can carry the offense, but not without the play action. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Thankfully, they are at home where the noise is sure to fluster Matt Ryan, who likes to call plays at the line. Might want to start practicing those hand signals now Matt. If the Lions give up the kind of yards on the ground they gave up to the Niners, they will lose this game. I’m torn, but I’m sticking with the Lions just cause I have more fantasy players on that team.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Seattle at Cleveland Line: -3.0
The Browns. What can be said about my team? Well, Colt looked alright against the Raiders, but it wasn’t until the last five minutes. Whatever they did on their bye week didn’t seem to have worn off. Hillis was a non-factor, leaving with a hamstring injury. Madden Curse anyone? The Browns were pathetic. The Seahawks are just coming off a bye week and have to roll to the east coast again. Though last time, they managed to win the game late with some smart defense. I’ll buy that. Charlie Whitehurst looks to be getting the start over Tavaris Jackson, which could actually be a good thing for the Seahawks, looking to find that magic they lost when Hasselbeck left. I’m going to go against my gut on this one though, and take the Browns to win at home. I’ll probably be wrong (as I usually am when I follow my gut) but I gotta pick my boys every once in while right?

Houston at Tennessee Line: -3.0
The Texans could not get the running game going against the Ravens last week, and that killed them. The Titans aren’t going to make it easy for the Texans this week, as this game may as well be a playoff for the division. Both have massive losses at wide receiver, both teams haven’t been able to really establish a running game. Both teams have defenses that can be up at times, down at others. This is a very evenly matched game. Houston’s defense might be a bit stronger, but they have to find a way to control the bevy of tight ends that the Titans employ. Are they blocking or running slants? No one knows! Titans to win at home.

Denver at Miami Line: -3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
How’s this for lame. Before the game, Miami plans on honoring the 2008 Florida Gator National Championship Team – including visiting QB Tim Tebow. Talk about degrading. Not only will this fire up Tebow and the Denver Broncos with false bravado, but it will totally demoralize the Dolphins. Why in the hell are they still going through with this idiotic presentation? The original idea was to sell tickets, but now? It’s just moronic. “We can’t get out of our own way,” said Sparano. Of course, he was referring to the play of his team, rather than the poor decisions by the marketing department. It should also be noted, that after losing to Denver (as Miami will) Sparano is probably going to be out of a job. If he isn’t, I’ll be surprised. That being said, the Miami Dolphins have nothing to give any pundit a reason to pick them. Denver on the road.

Chicago at Tampa Bay Line: +1.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Apologies to both the Bears and the Bucs. The London game is always an automatic crap fest. One team is always tired and plays like shit, it always rains and the crowd is confused and the stadium is never full. These games are a bit depressing to watch sometimes. Either way, it doesn’t matter what happened last week, the Bucs will win this game because they flew over to London on Monday, giving the guys time to adjust and get a proper amount of sleep. Meanwhile, the Bears opted to practice at home this week, then fly over on Saturday. Bone-head move guys. The Bucs already learned that lesson once, and that’s torture on the body with the time change. Fatigue is going to be the enemy of the Bears, which is why the Bucs will win.

Washington at Carolina Line: -3.0
The Redskins found some mystical way to lose against the Eagles, even though their defense smacked around Vick. The problem was pretty clear, as Rex Grossman tossed four picks to the Eagles defense. He was benched, and now John Beck is going to be the starter. That’s good news, because the kid can run. Sure, he’ll make mistakes but like Tebow he’s got a weak defense his first week out. Meanwhile, Cam and the boys almost pulled one out of their asses last week against the Falcons, but three interceptions killed them. Not to mention allowing a comeback. I expect this game to go about the same, though I can see an upset brewing. Though since the Panthers are favored on the line, it wouldn’t be an upset. Anyway, like an awkward virgin on prom night, the Panthers can’t seem to seal the deal. Redskins on the road.

Kansas City at Oakland Line: -3.5
Raiders Offensive coordinator Al Saunders said about Carson Palmer starting; “As long as he’s breathing.” Sorry Boller, you are nothing but pine warmer. Palmer was acquired by Oakland from the Bungles for a draft pick or something. Either way, it’s a good deal for the Raiders, but don’t you think Palmer will be a bit rusty coming back from semi-retirement? Especially with only four days to learn the plays in Oakland? Thankfully, he’s up against the Chiefs. Now, the Chiefs aren’t terrible, but they sure have not been playing lights out defense. What’s that? They are terrible? Oh, yeah, so they are. The Raiders, coming off a win over the hapless Browns are fired up, looking at a serious run for the playoffs. Kansas City will be a minor speed bump. Raiders to win at home.

Pittsburgh at Arizona Line: +4.0
A lot of so-called experts are picking the Cardinals to somehow snap out of their mediocrity and beat the Steelers. While the Steelers defense and run game took a little while to get going, it’s going. The Cardinals defense is also not going to have an answer for the deep threat of Ben to Wallace. Not to mention that Hines Ward guy still plays football – apparently. Either way, Kolb isn’t nearly as sharp as he appeared to be as backup in Philly. The Cardinals are probably looking to enter the Andrew Luck lottery as well. A loss here will help. Steelers to win on the road in this rematch of that one Superbowl where Arizona lost.

St. Louis at Dallas Line: -10.5
I really wanted to make this one my upset special this week, but I just picked up the Dallas defense in fantasy since the Bills have a bye week and I don’t like to bet against myself. The Rams, well, they showed up against Green Bay in the second half on defense, a little bit. They held the Packers after the half, but also didn’t score. They seem to be lagging on that scoring bit a lot lately. Sigh. They just suck. 400 yards of offense and only three points to show for it. The Cowboys, a team that I picked to win their division, still haven’t stepped up to be the team that they are on paper. I think they lay down a whipping this week, but they really have to get their shit together if they hope to compete with the Redskins. Cowboys at home.

Green Bay at Minnesota Line: +9.5
Remember that time that Donovan McNabb turned out to be a bust? Oh wait, that was last week. For all concerned, the Donovan McNabb era in purple should be over. Christian Ponder, the rookie Qb with the quick feet, has been named the starter after relieving McNabb against the Bears last week. While he didn’t score, he moved the team down the field, which was more than McNabb did. The Vikings are hurting on offense, Peterson is their only weapon but even he is stifled by an offensive line that can’t get out of it’s own way and certainly can’t create any pocket protection. Thankfully Ponder knows how to run, and he’ll have to be running against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. There is no upset brewing here, the Vikings are going to get whipped, but it’ll be fun to watch Ponder escape pressure. Packers to win.

Indianapolis at New Orleans Line: -14.0
The Saints are coming off a 2-1 road trip, tired and hungry. Hey, what’s this? A five course meal being delivered right to their door? I’d like my rookie quarterback rare please. Indy, also in the Andrew Luck lottery, clearly has no faith in their young rookie Painter. Or at least the media doesn’t, as Painter has already been replaced by Andrew Luck on paper. So, their season is bonked. Still looking for their first win, they ain’t gonna find it in New Orleans. Saints to win.

Baltimore at Jacksonville Line: +8.5
Last but not least, the Jaguars. Another rookie QB is about to get squashed like a bug. If Gabbart thought the Steelers were tough, wait until he meets Ray Lewis and friends. The Jags have shown some spark lately, but they really are lacking when it comes to pass protection, passing and pass defense. So, there’s that. It should be a nice, rough game with plenty of silly penalties for the Jags. Ravens to win on the road.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Buffalo
So was that bad play calling or a terrible decision by Fitzpatrick that lost the game for the Bills against the Giants? Either way, the Bills better take a step back and deflate those heads. After the Patriots win, the Bills are looking a bit normal.

Bye Week at Cincinnati
The Bungles have been the surprise team of the season, led by young ginger Andy Dalton. They enter the bye week at 4-2 and poised to make a run at the division title. Of course, they have to find a way to beat their division foes first.

Bye Week at N.Y. Giants
The Giants defense seemed to wake up late in the game against Buffalo, a week after the offense lost the game the same way Buffalo did. The defense needs to keep it strong if the Giants can hope to hold off the rest of the division and overtake the Redskins.

Bye Week at Philadelphia
The Eagles, are for real? I still don’t think so and won’t be sold. While they won last week, Vick still made a laundry list of mistakes, but coupled them with some good play too. We’ll see if that huge contract pays off. Oh yeah, Vince Young is really that bad.

Bye Week at San Francisco
Huge win for the Niners over the Lions. I didn’t think I’d ever be saying that. But Harbaugh is doing a good job leading this team and turning Alex Smith into a real NFL QB. Now, if he can only get that offensive line to sharpen up a bit.

Bye Week at New England
What needs to be said about the Patriots? They pulled off a Tom Brady-esque comeback against the Cowboys and sustained their home win streak. Brady and Bellichick also tied Shula & Marino for most wins by a coach/QB duo. Slap on the back chaps.

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The shoe cables a repent reward near the visible.