Posts About ‘Broncos’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: Divisional Weekend

Thursday, January 10th, 2013

So last week I went a respectable three out of four. I really did not expect the Colts to give it away like they did. Their front offensive line pretty much helped make it open season on young Andrew Luck. I really wanted the Colts to win because I like what they’ve been able to do this season and I really don’t like the Ravens. What I didn’t count on was Ray Lewis coming back, and getting like nine tackles. Without Ray Lewis, the Colts may have won that game. When I wrote the column last week, I didn’t know he was going to be back in.

So I’m writing this from a Starbucks in Planet Hollywood in Vegas where I finally have good WiFi. I’m here for CES and probably won’t even get to the convention floor. Meetings, meetings, meetings. I mean, meetings with the Roulette table. Oh yeah baby. So as I’m writing this, the guy next to me is having a sex chat with his girl via Skype. I can tell cause she’s wearing little, they went from verbal to typing and every time I glance over it’s like watching one of those porn videos people talk about. Thankfully, he’s keeping it classy by not unzipping right here.

Anyway, I better get this written up, I have a meeting in a few minutes at some hotel that I’ll probably get lost in. Actually, I want to ditch the meeting cause after researching the company it seems really super mega boring and I don’t want to do super mega boring right now. At least I’m not having ACL, MCL and every other CL surgery like RG3 right now. And at least I’m not fired like a shit ton of coaches, including now Rob Ryan, who will most likely not be working in NY with his brother. And at least I’m not Peyton Manning, who knows damn well he’s going to have to play in the cold against the Patriots next week. It’s inevitable.

Baltimore at Denver -9.5
The Ravens pose an interesting challenge for the Denver offensive line, can they control the speed and toughness of a recharged and pumped up defense? That’s the only key to this game. People are questioning Manning’s resolve, whether or not he can handle the week off and the cold weather, I think that isn’t a problem this week. I think the Broncos get an early lead and pound out the rest of the game, leaving Manning able to avoid the rush and save himself for next week, in the cold again, against the Patriots. The Ravens got lucky last week, with Lewis coming back, I don’t think they have the same energy this week, at least not after the first quarter. Broncos to win.

Green Bay at San Francisco -3.0
The big question for this game is how do the Packers contain Frank Gore? Earlier this year, he ripped off over 100 yards against the Packers, then watched as Adrian Peterson did it to the Packers in the last game of the season. However, the very next week the Packers figured something out as they held Peterson in check and were too much for the Vikings without their star running back. I think we could see them show the same defensive fronts against the Niners this week, the only x-factor being Colin Kaepernik. That kid can run, and unlike RG3, he’s got a much stronger physicality to him. He’s not going to twist an ankle getting tackled, and he’s going to use the read and spread option to confuse the defense because he can actually pass the ball. So the Niners then have to worry about Rodgers just lighting up their secondary in the nice weather in San Fran. Sure, he plays well in the cold, but he plays better when he’s comfortable and his receivers have warm hands. This game really could go either way, but I’m taking the Niners by a nose.

Seattle at Atlanta -1.0
The Seahawks were impressive last week, but it is not going to matter against the stronger offense of the Falcons. The Seahawks defense has been lights out against the run, and their secondary has been more than competent. The thing is, Matt Ryan and his top flight receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White can do things that most teams cannot defend against. Those back shoulder throws, and getting the ball up high enough so that only those tall receivers can get it are just a few. Add to that the constant threat of play action and the arsenal of weapons at his disposal and the Falcons offense will be hard to beat. Of course, we know how the Falcons tend to choke in the post-season, so we’ll see if they do. But for now, I’m sticking with the Falcons to finally get that sweet post-season victory.

Houston at New England -9.5
Clearly you have noticed the trend here, I’m picking all home teams, and I’ve already picked the Patriots in the opening paragraph. So, as well as the Texans have done this season, defensively or otherwise, the Patriots are built for the playoffs and that’s why they are going to win. Patriots to win, with little discussion.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game 2012: AFC West Preview

Thursday, August 30th, 2012

More importantly, the Jets are gonna suck… oh hello. Didn’t notice you there. Yeah, I took Tebow as my last pick in my fantasy draft. Yep. That happened. Other than that my team is Matt Ryan, Calvin Johnson, Andrew Luck, Falcons D, Peyton Hillis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, a random kicker (cause who cares) and the highest ranked TE when I got around to it. I have some other receivers too, I don’t remember who. The other league I’m in, no Johnson, but that one required me to pick all the defensive players too. That was 28 rounds. Went pretty quick though.

So only two more divisions to look at before we get to the week one predictions. I know some of my season predictions have been a little wild, but I think except for the record they are pretty accurate. Who the hell knows? You could say I write this column with a grain of salt, a ton of knowledge and a cynical view of some teams, especially the Browns. Ugh.

So how about those replacement refs huh? This is going to be freaking awesome. There is so much that they haven’t seen in preseason, the rules have changed a lot since a lot of these guys have seen action. There are going to be huge mistakes, bad calls and games are going to drag on because of it. Thankfully, that’s why we have NFL RedZone. There’s going to be no point watching a game on CBS or FOX this season, as those broadcasts are going to be long, boring and full of standing around – which means more commercials. Fun. I hope the NFL reaches an agreement with the real Refs as soon as possible.

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Lets see, what has changed in Denver? Not too much I think. Wide Receivers Andre Caldwell, Bandon Stokley join Eric Decker on the offense. Some secondary help in safety Mike Adams and corner Tracy Porter. Tebow is gone, I mean, all he did was lead them to the playoffs. Brady Quinn is also out. What else? I can’t think of anything else that has changed in Denver. Oh yeah – Jack Del Rio comes in as defensive coordinator.

There is something else… what is it. Well, anyway, new offensive coordinator Peyton Manning is oddly enough playing quarterback too, who does that? Really though, the Broncos have a coordinator, but you know damn well that Manning is going to be running the offense. Peyton has already taken a few hits in the preseason and frankly, he looks good so far. I did say that he wouldn’t be physically up to it, but it looks like I might be wrong. His neck is holding up well, and his arm and aim look as good as ever before. This should be interesting to see Manning play for a new team. Really though, it won’t matter. The Colts were only as good as they were because of Manning. The Broncos will get the same effect.

Because, and this bit is important, of the defense. With Von Miller still coming off the edge, and an improved secondary, the Broncos should be good against the rush and the pass. Really, it comes down to pass protection and if Manning can get enough time to get those razor sharp passes off. As for Willis McGahee, well, I think he’s still got a bit left in the tank. Considering the Broncos won the division with a shaky, but impressive leader in Tebow, they’ll definitely win the division with Manning. Er, Manning will win the division with the Broncos backing him up.

Projected Finish: 12-4

Kansas City Chiefs
Palko and Orton have made way for Quinn to back up Matt Cassell, who couldn’t carry the offense by himself last year. That was partly to Jamaal Charles not making it through the first few games. Charles needs to be on his game in order for the Chiefs offense to work correctly. Though, the Chiefs are not sitting on their hands on this on, they brought in Peyton Hillis to be the one hitting the line hard to take the brunt of the hits. If there is one running back in the league who can crush it at the line, it’s Hillis.

The big talk on the Chiefs though is first round draft pick Dontari Poe, defensive tackle out of Memphis. If this guy can deliver, he can impact the defense like Von Miller or Mario Williams. A guy who plays hard and pushes the rest of the defense to his level. However, if he is a super bust as some are saying he might be, then the Chiefs might have a problem. Also, I’m hoping Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson improve a bit over last year, cause those two high draft picks could also make an impression.

The Chiefs are one of those teams that either surprise their opponents, or just be a complete bust. Crennel coaches well under pressure, and he’s under pressure. He’s gotta know that if he doesn’t hit the playoffs or get close, he could be out of a head coaching job. I think that the Chiefs will do well this year, spring out some interesting wins, but they won’t top Manning and the Broncos.

Projected Finish: 10-6

Oakland Raiders
Who follows the Raiders and wants to write this bit for me? If there is one team in the NFL I could really give a shit about, it’s the Raiders. Lets see, Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart some other players, new GM, new approach to playing football – oh yeah, Al Davis is dead. Well, that should change things in Raider country for sure.

The Raiders haven’t had a winning season since 2002. Darren McFadden hasn’t impressed like Arian Foster has, which might change with new coordinator Greg Knapp who coached Foster with the Texans. The Raiders have had a lethargic offense the past few years, mostly because they try to be as pass heavy as possible. With putting more focus on the rushing game though, that might help them win a few games.

I think we are going to see some crazy shit on defense though. Multiple fronts, wild schemes and zone coverages thrown in for good measure. The Raiders are looking to shake things up with the way this franchise is run, on and off the field and while it may not pay dividends this year, it might next year.

Projected Finish: 8-8

San Diego Chargers
This has got to be the last chance for Norv Turner right? I mean this guy can’t hang on any longer if he can’t lead this team through the darkness of the second half of the season and reach the playoffs right? The Chargers always seem to start off hot, then Rivers fizzles near the end of the year. Meanwhile, his draft buddy Eli has won two Superbowls. That has got to sting just a little bit.

Well, premier receiver Vincent Jackson is gone but the Chargers worked pretty hard to replace him. They’ve brought in Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal and Roscoe Parrish to give some depth to the WR position. Then they brought in Le’Ron McClain and Ronnie Brown to help out Matthews in the backfield. None of these guys really screams top-flight running back to me, but the three of them together should get the job done. Really though, the tandem to watch for again is Rivers to Gates.

As for the defense, John Pagano takes over for Greg Manusky and he’s got first round pick Melvin Ingram, second round pick Kendall Reyes and third rounder Brandon Taylor. The hope here is that these rookies, along with the current defense, will help the Chargers late in the season when Rivers needs it the most. This team rests on the shoulders of Rivers and Turner, hopefully they can work together to get it done this year.

Projected Finish: 11-5

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Wild-Card Weekend

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

"Hey Joe, see you next week. Maybe."


With the regular season over it’s time to ask the question we ask every playoff season in the NFL – does defense win championships? The Packers and the Patriots have the leagues Worst defenses, but the leagues best offenses. The Steelers, Niners, Texans and Ravens have the best defenses with moderate offenses. So does defense win championships? Well, history would tell us that they do, but history hasn’t seen offenses like the Packers, Saints and Patriots.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens. And consider this stat, the last three teams the Steelers have beaten in the Superbowl were the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. This year, they are in and the Niners are in. So are they fated to meet in the big game so the Steelers can sweep the NFC West? Another fun storyline. Only four games to pick this week, so let’s get this done.

Cincinnati at Houston
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -3.0
Once the Texans secured a playoff spot, they stopped winning. They also lost another QB to injury. So now they are down to Jake Delhomme, who I don’t put a lot of confidence in. Hell, who wants to put anything into a one time starter who is now the 4th string QB? Hopefully Yates will be back in the game, as his injury wasn’t as severe as the Matts. The Bengals are playing smart football right now, but were unable to beat teams with better defenses than them, namely the Ravens and the Steelers. While teams tend to play different (or better) in the playoffs, the Bengals have to really step it up to beat the Texans and their defense, who play with a similar attack as the Ravens. I’m taking the Bengals in this game though, because Andy Dalton has been quite impressive this season. Their offense has really clicked this year, and while they haven’t beaten tough defenses, they have the tools to do so. Based on the QB siutation in Houston, Bengals to win.

Detroit at New Orleans
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: 11.0
My 11 year old pointed out that as dominant as the Saints have been since their Superbowl win, they still got beat in the playoffs last year by the Seahawks, who had won their division at 8-8 and played at the Saints in the dome. So the Lions, who have had a back and forth season now slide down to the dome to play the Saints, who have all the advantages. They set all kinds of offensive records this year, and the Lions, well, they got into the playoffs. That’s a huge win for them. The Saints have the offense, and the defense to get it done with little trouble. The problem is going to be if the defense of the Lions can play without penalty after penalty. I doubt they can, their agressiveness level will be at an all time high. I’m taking the Saints to win this game, just for the same reason I picked them last year. On paper they are the better team but as they showed last year, anything can happen. Saints at home.

Atlanta at NY Giants
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -3.0
I was reading something, I don’t remember what, that said Matt Ryan is not Drew Brees, not Tom Brady and not Eli Manning. That’s right, he’s not but he’s a damn accurate QB with the best running game in the playoffs. The Falcons will have a few surprises in store for the Giants in the ground game, but they’ll be up against the best part of the Giants, which is the front four. The offense struggles at times, as Cruz is good for the big play when he can get open, but that doesn’t happen as often as it should. The Giants have to attack quickly so the Falcons can’t ground out the clock on the ground. They need to force Ryan to the air as quickly as possible. For the Falcons, they need to hold the run game and push the Giants defense back for as long as possible. Tire them out and dry out the offence on the bench. I’m taking the Falcons to win here, just because of the running game.

Pittsburgh at Denver
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +9.0
The Broncos backed into the playoffs thanks to the Raiders completely sucking and getting beat by the Chargers. That’s all in the past now. The Broncos, finishing the season at an even 8-8 are hosting a playoff game this weekend, which begs for the argument that the playoffs should be a seeded system based on record for homefield advantage. The Steelers, at an impressive 12-4 have to play an away game for the Wild-Card. That’s bullshit right there. Either way, they roll into Denver and have all the advantages in this game. At one point seeming like a visionary, John Fox has coached Denver into three straight losses, making Tebow look like a terrible QB by abandoning the run too early, but then keeping all the passing short instead of just letting Tebow loose on the field. Teams have kind of figured out the read option, but if Denver brings the run back, then they have their advantage back. It won’t matter though, with James Harrison on the other side of the ball, Tebow is going to be scrambling a lot. I’d love to see Denver win this game, but they won’t. Maybe I shouldn’t put it that way. They might. If they watch some tape, and see the way Cleveland (not a playoff team or anywhere close) ground out the Steelers, they might have a chance. They have to run the ball and they have to let Tebow take chances. Even Elway wants Tebow to throw more. One of the reasons for three straight losses was ultra-conservative play calling. This is the playoffs, you are 8-8 and no one gave you a rats chance in hell of winning, take some fucking chances. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year, which gives Denver a chance at taking advantage. We’ll see. Pittsburgh to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 16

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

"Hey buddy. Hey buddy. IHOP after the game? You know it."

Sigh. Last week was terrible, for pretty much everyone I think. Who saw all those upsets coming? I went 7-9, which I suppose is respectable. I mean, the Seahawks made the playoffs last year with the same record. There were so many upsets last week, I mean – the Packers? Who could have seen that coming. Either way, it’s a new week and I really need to make up some ground if I want a cushy new job at CBS Sports or ESPN. Which I’ll never get only going 63% on the year. Well, that’s still better than most analysts.

So the playoff picture is really fucked up this year. I mean, you have your division winners with the AFC West still mathematically up for grabs, and you have a giant battle on both sides for the wild-card with about thirty billion different scenarios. It should be an interesting week of football. Don’t forget, games are on Saturday this week, not Sunday because of your Christian god and Santa and what not. Also, no one gives a shit about the NBA. On with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at NY Jets Line: -3.0
This game, as Rex Ryan seems to think, is going to be war. The Giants looked like shit last week as Eli threw three interceptions and the defense rolled over like bitches to the Redskins. The Giants seemed to defer the division to the Cowboys with relative ease. Same for the Jets, who kept the Eagles hopes alive by playing like absolute shit. So what happened to the New York teams? They both get a home game here, so there should be some fights in the crowd for sure. They both have QB’s on the cusp of greatness, though Eli obviously is the better QB most days. Both of them tend to make horrible decisions under pressure, but only one of them has the two minute drill down pat, and that’s Eli. I think the Jets will go up early, only to lose late. The Giants have to win this game if they want to have a chance at the playoffs, and win next week, and hope the Cowboys lose. Giants to win.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Houston at Indianapolis Line: +6.0
Wade Phillips needs to ask for a huge raise. These two teams have shown how important one man can be to a whole team, to a season. However, only one has locked up the playoffs for the first time in their existence, and that would be the Texans. A week after sealing the deal and without Wade Phillips coaching the defense, the Texans suffered a huge upset at the hands of the Panthers, just rolling over on the defensive side of the ball. The fans were booing in Texas (they made it to the playoffs – shut the fuck up!) This week, going in to face the one win Colts (on a precarious ledge between winning too many games and losing enough to secure the 1st pick in the draft) they shouldn’t have any issues. The Colts offense doesn’t have the running attack like the Panthers. The Colts need to lose anyway. They don’t want to I’m sure. But they have one win and the Rams and Vikings each have two. So, they need to stay at one to get “Luck”y. Texans to win on the road.

Denver at Buffalo Line: +3.0
Here’s my analysis of the Denver vs New England game. The Denver defense, stout coming into the game, clearly fell apart in the second half. How do you not cover the best receiving tight end in the league with double coverage? They did a good job of rushing Brady in the first half, then gave it up in the second. And when Bellichick declined that penalty to give the Broncos 4th and one, knowing that Fox would take the safe three points, I knew it was going to be over for the Broncos. The Broncos are the number one rushing team in the league and are you telling me they couldn’t push it one fucking yard? The haters came out immediately blaming Tebow, but he did what he could (save for the late game 30 yard sack) considering his offensive line play was terrible, even against a three man rush. The Broncos were outcoached, and that’s on Fox and the defense. Moving on, they are still leading the division and a win in Buffalo will secure that playoff spot for them as division winners. Buffalo is on a six game skid and it keeps getting worse. A snow game last week in which they usually win, they didn’t. They are terrible right now, and I expect that to continue. Time to rebuild – again. Denver to win on the road.

Arizona at Cincinnati Line: -4.5
A lot of teams, especially in the NFC are still in the “hunt” for the playoffs – at least statistically. The Cardinals being a prime example. If they win out, and every one around them loses, they could be hitting a wild-card spot. But a lot of pieces need to fall into place. This team is not to be counted out, as the Browns learned last week. But that was the Browns, who are coached idiotically. Do not punt directly to the hottest punt return man in the league! The Bengals are unfortunately going to be shut out of the playoffs, sucks for them after their hot start. Dalton has matured into quite the starting QB and shouldn’t have much trouble at home picking apart the Cardinals secondary. The question is, can the Bengals secondary cover Fitzgerald? Bengals to win, barely.

Jacksonville at Tennessee Line: -9.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Well, if the Titans have achieved anything this year it was handing the Colts their first (and possibly only) win of the season. Good on them. Someone needed to. It was getting depressing. The Titans looked lethargic at best, apparently they forgot at that point they still had a shot at the playoffs, not anymore. The good news is, we won’t have to see Hasselbeck limping around the field as they are sure to give Locker some playing time. The Jags, well, they had a forgettable season even though MJD had a great year. I’d look for him to rack up some yards in this game, as the Titans run defense has totally fallen apart late in the season. I’m taking the Jags to win, just because they have absolutely nothing to lose and seem to be on again/off again and this should be an on week. Jags on the road.

Oakland at Kansas City Line: -1.0
Mathematically, and pending a Denver loss (which hopefully won’t happen) both these teams are still in the running for a playoff spot. While the Raiders are on a clear slide, the Chiefs beat the Packers. They did it with defense and Romeo Crennel should get coach of the year for that shit. Or at least a full time job. Either way, the Chiefs aren’t the best offensive team, but the Raiders aren’t either. In fact, the only thing the Raiders are good at lately are committing penalties. I’m looking for this game to be no different and the outcome to be determined on penalties and turnovers. Flip a coin. I’m taking the Chiefs at home.

Miami at New England Line: -10.5
No surprise that Miami swept the Bills this year, and no surprise that the Patriots beat the Broncos proper right? Even though I picked the Broncos, but it still wasn’t surprising. As well as Miami is playing right now, and as much as I’d love to pick an upset here it’s not going to happen. Brady and team are setting all kinds of records offensively and should continue against the inconsistent Miami defense. I see no reason why this won’t be a high scoring game though, so look for some fun touchdowns and for Miami to stay in the game through at least three quarters. Patriots to win at home.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh Line: -16.0
For some reason, the Rams beating the Saints is still somewhere in our minds and that should give hope to Rams fans, but it doesn’t. They are terrible from front to back and this week should be no different. The pressure from the Steelers defense will be unbearable for the offense. While the Steelers got whipped in San Francisco, that was clearly a superior defensive team. Too bad they won’t meet in the playoffs. Steelers to win easy at home.

Minnesota at Washington Line: -6.5
The Redskins should be happy with themselves. While still having no shot at a division they have no general business being in (cause they suck and there should be a division for teams like this so they can wallow in their suckiness) they sure did muck up the Giants chances last week. Of course, they were assisted by Eli Manning throwing them the ball plenty of times. I think they win again this week against a Vikings team that has struggled to get anything going this year, getting blown out last week against the Saints. They have hope though, as Ponder and Webb make a good one-two combo at QB. Now, if only one of them was good enough to win a game. Redskins to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Carolina Line: -7.5
The Bucs are terrible. There was a report on the radio that the GM calls down plays to Rahim Morris during the game. What kind of undermining bullshit is that? No wonder they can’t get anything done on the field. They are a disappointment to the league and to the city of Tampa. They may as well switch their jerseys back to the old creamsicles and call it a day. Panthers to win in dominant fashion.

Cleveland at Baltimore Line: -13.0
Someone at work said they had a hard time making this pick because of the way the Ravens played last week against the Chargers. I said are you kidding me? Look at the way the Browns have played all season long! They constantly find ways to lose games, most recently kicking to the best punt returner in the league this year. Morons. Colt is out and Seneca is in, and that shouldn’t give Browns fans anything to hope for at this moment. Meanwhile, the Ravens with Ray Lewis back are losing again. I wonder if he’s shoving aside defensive linemen to try and make every play himself, because whatever he’s doing, it ain’t helping. The Ravens need a big win and this one should be big. Ravens at home.

San Diego at Detroit Line: -3.0
There are two things that are certain in December. One, is that it’s the holidays and you’ll be getting tons of holiday cheer and your once a year Christmas blow job. The second, is that Philip Rivers is nearly unstoppable in December. He continued his tear last weak, beating the Ravens in glorious fashion, making Norv Turner actually look good for once. I think that the Chargers roll into Detroit and pull off another big win, really throwing a wrench into the possibility of the Lions making the playoffs. Chargers to win.

Philadelphia at Dallas Line: -3.0
Let’s see, as much as I want the Eagles to be out of the playoff conversation, this division sucks just enough for them to still be in it. Their only shot is if both the Cowboys and the Giants drop their next two, and the Eagles win their next two. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker, at 3-1 in the division currently. They roll in to Dallas this week, then they get Washington at home next week. So can the “dream team” do it or is their nightmare season finally coming to an end in Dallas? Some pundits have said Romo has had a career season, I say he’s overrated and generally shit, yet, he’s currently helming a division leading team and slaughtered a very crappy Bucs team last week. Dallas making the playoffs seemed the most likely scenario but man, the Eagles have finally got their shit together and are looking like the dream team we were promised. The Cowboys defense has really not played up to expectations and they really need to be on this game. I predicted the Cowboys would win the division, and picking the Eagles here would bounce that prediction unless the Eagles were to lose to Washington next week. The Eagles are playing too good right now, Eagles to win on the road and totally muck up the division.

San Francisco at Seattle Line: +1.5
This is the thought in the Seahawks locker room. If Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona & Chicago don’t win any more games, and the Hawks win their last two they could make the playoffs. Here’s reality, they won’t get past the Niners. Not on a good day. While they went to town on the Bears last week, the Niners are not the Bears and are lights out on defense. Did you see how they beat the Steelers? Defensive pressure. The Niners still have something to play for, and that’s a first round bye. It’s between them and the Saints for that. Of course, the Saints haven’t even technically won their division yet. They will. The Niners should dominate in this game and put the Seahawks out of their misery.

Chicago at Green Bay Line: -13.0
It’s amazing that with Cutler out this long that Martz hasn’t made any adjustments in the offensive game plan to make it any easier for Caleb Hanie. That’s why the Bears haven’t won at all since Cutler has been out, the game is too complicated at this point for Hanie and the Bears have thrown away a once promising season. Sad for Bears fans, good for Packers fans as they should hope for an easy win in this one. But wait, the KC defense stepped up and showed other teams how to beat the Packers – get after Rodgers like your life depends on it. Duh. At the same time, it exposed holes in the Green Bay offensive line and they’ve had a week to fix them. I don’t think the KC win will do anything to help other teams against a normally unstoppable Green Bay offense, but it does kind of bring them down to Earth. Green Bay to win at home.

Atlanta at New Orleans Line: -7.0
Atlanta is pretty much in the playoffs, pending disaster. They have no chance at the division (well, they do but the Saints would have to lose two in a row which ain’t gonna happen,) but the Saints want that delicious home field advantage. So the Saints are going to come out firing in this one. If they get a big lead, will they rest Drew Brees and prevent him from breaking Marino’s record? I doubt it. That’s just not the way Sean Peyton coaches this team. This should be a nice back and forth game, another good Monday night match-up worth watching. The Falcons though, while they can suffer a loss and still be in a good position for the playoffs could stand to get another win just to be sure. Of course, for them to get knocked out of the playoffs a lot of other shit around the NFC has to go down, which is possible based on the match-ups this week. I’m sticking with the Saints though, who are actually looking better than the Packers.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Doesn't matter who wins. They'll lose to the Packers anyway.

Only four weeks left in the NFL season. The first of many tears has already started to fall from my baby blue eyes. Not just because the NFL is going to be done soon, but because I have to put up with constant NBA highlights. I was really hoping that the NBA would not be coming back, but it is. At least there is hockey and baseball starts in April. I’m thinking too far ahead. For now, we still have four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs to get through. Which means I have a column of picks to write.

Last week I didn’t do fabulous, but it was a positive week. I’m 63% on the season, which is pretty good but not as good as I want. Time to buck up and really think about these picks. Or not think about these picks. I doubt all the people at work who do better than me on their picks every other week really do much analysis. Maybe I over analyze. I have no idea. That takes too much thought to determine if I’m applying too much thought.

In more personal news, I’m currently looking for strong freelance or even part-time(ish) for hire gigs. Writing, editing, content producing, whatever. So you have a need or know someone who does, please have them contact me. That was a link. Directly to email. That’s how I roll. I’m open to anything, anywhere, any bat channel, any bat time. Enough of that, on with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at Dallas Line: -3.5
The 6-6 Giants roll in to face the 7-5 Cowboys in their first meeting this season (can you believe that?) The table for this dinner isn’t set yet, since they still have to play again in week 17. Basically it’s like this, the winner of this series is the one that makes the playoffs from this division. I’m guessing both of these teams finish 10-6. Which means what for this prediction? It means that the Giants win this week and Dallas wins the next match-up in New York? I guess that’s what it means. Which means divisional record is the tie breaker. At the beginning of the season I picked the Cowboys to win the division, and I’m sticking with that. However, I think they way the Giants played against the Packers and all season is much more impressive than the Cowboys. To this point, and this week – the Giants win. Needless to say, I’ll probably be picking the Cowboys in week 17. Giants on the road by a field goal or less.

 

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: -14.0
For some reason I picked Cleveland last week. As a lifelong Browns fan I should have known better that even at home, they weren’t going to beat their former incarnation in the Ravens. Instead, they got pistol whipped like they were wandering the streets of Cincinnati. The Ravens worked them in every aspect of the game, there were no bright points. It was sad. It’ll be even sadder this week as they visit Pittsburgh. Traditionally, the Steeler vs. Browns match-up is a good game, but there is so much disparity between these two teams over the last couple years that there is no doubt that the Steelers will dominate the Browns. After watching the Steelers run, pass and score at will against the Bengals last week, the Browns don’t stand a chance. Steelers at home.

Houston at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Texans are continuously overcoming serious injuries to keep in the game for the playoffs. They have the Titans to watch for, at only two games behind, but they are playing pretty well considering. Yates isn’t terrible and held it together after Johnson was sidelined again this season. The victory over the Falcons was a win for the defense as well, missing Mario Williams. In a year this defense (overall) went from 30th to second. Good job Wade Phillips. The Bengals, while still looking average on both sides of the ball, couldn’t get past the true division test in the Steelers and Ravens. They’ll miss the playoffs. But the Dalton to Green connection is getting exciting to watch. I’m down with that for the future. I think Houston rolls in this week and pulls off a mild upset to secure their spot in the playoffs. Houston on the road.

Minnesota at Detroit Line: -0.0
The downfall of the Lions has almost been as exciting to watch as their surprise start to the season. Schwartz doesn’t seem to care that his team (even without Suh) is committing penalty after penalty, a lot of them in the area of personal fouls. Morons. Their drubbing by the Saints knocked them off the shelf of elite teams for good this season. They really can’t turn it around. The Saints showed that simple double coverage on Megatron really mucks up the offense. Minnesota has a competent defense and I think they can do the same. Losing last week to the Denver Tebows was tough, but the offense turned the ball over at some crucial moments. This should be an interesting game, and I think that if Detroit keeps up it’s penalty ridden ways, the Vikings win this game. Otherwise the Lions win. Do I have to pick a winner with a zero line? Fine. Detroit at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee Line: +4.0
The Titans aren’t out the playoff hunt yet, but they are hoping they continue to be underestimated. Now that CJ2K is finally finding the holes to punch through, they have stepped up their game a notch. 153 yards and two TD’s against Buffalo, and a week before also racking up huge yards it’s undeniable that Johnson is back. Hasselbeck is playing better, finding targets but still managing to throw it to the defense every once in a while. Finding those holes against the Saints defense might prove to be difficult, and they’ll need to if they hope to keep up with the offense. I’m taking the Saints in this game just cause they are the much better team, but I expect the Titans to make it interesting.

Philadelphia at Miami Line: -3.0
Aside from the Lions the other most exciting collapse to watch is that of the Eagles. McCoy is having a great season on the ground, but it doesn’t matter. Vince Young throws interception after interception and Vick can never get the game moving like he promised. It’s a disaster in Philly. Will Andy Reid be out of a job at the end of the season even considering his winning history with the team? Vick was a mistake. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, previously undrafted, will have every right to ask for a nice new contract at the end of the season, regardless of the coach. Assuming he keeps winning. They could finish 8-8, which considering their start would be great for the Dolphins. Reggie Bush has found new life in Miami and I think the Philly defense doesn’t put the brakes on the Dolphins winning ways. Fins to win at home.

Kansas City at NY Jets Line: -9.0
A 38 yard hail mary mixed in with terrible offense, terrible defense and a non-existent running game created a win. An improbable win, but a win and a loss for the Bears. The Chiefs are treading water, with no chance at a winning season and just a sad, sad year. The Jets shouldn’t have a problem with the visiting team this week, since unlike the Bears their team is more than just two guys. Of course, the Jets are the kings of week to week inconsistency on defense and offense, but if even one of those sides sparks just a bit, the win should come easy. Jets to win at home.

New England at Washington Line: +9.0
The difference between the Packers defense and the Patriots defense is turnover margin. While both allow a good chunk of scoring, the Packers defense forces a lot of turnovers that result, either directly or indirectly (in the hands of the offense) in points. The Patriots defense is horrid, making the Colts look moderately good in the passing game last week. This is going to cost them in the playoffs, when they have to face teams like the Ravens or Steelers that can easily take advantage of those defensive holes. I think even Washington this week takes advantage and keeps the game close. while they lost their shoes to the Jets, for the first half of the game they looked like they were in it. Obviously, Patriots to win these week, but they don’t make it look easy.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +3.0
Cam Newton, rookie of the year? That’s the consideration, though wouldn’t the biggest an impact a player could have on a team be winning? He’s doing a little bit of that, but the best that the Panthers can hope for is a third place finish in the division. The future looks bright for this team and if they can beat Atlanta this week, perhaps the immediate future will look real bright. The Falcons lost against Houston with the inability to run against that defense and a late penalty killed the tying drive. The Panthers don’t have that strong of a defense, and while they whipped up on the Bucs last week, that was the Bucs. Look for the Panthers to come out on all cylinders, but the Falcons to prevail late or in overtime. Falcons to win.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Chance are that wherever you are in the country this game will be blacked out, thank your lucky stars for that. The Jaguars seemed like they could get something together after inexplicably beating the Ravens but never did. Getting whupped by the Chargers on Monday night was just another nail in the coffin for Del Rio. What? Del Rio is already gone? Oh. Yeah. MJD will run all over the Bucs. This is the point in the season where it gets hard to pick game cause the match-ups are either too good, or too shitty to care about. Let’s be analytical here though. The Bucs run defense, as Carolina proved, is shit. That’s the ONE highlight of the Jags. Jags to win at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore Line: -17.0
For a team that competed with the Patriots, a seventeen point line has got to be an insult right? Well, consider that while the Patriots have shitty pass defense, the Ravens have a superior pass and rush defense. Now that Flacco has finally learned to hand the ball to Ray Rice more often, the Ravens are looking unstoppable. I mean, at for the moment. The playoffs could be another issue altogether. The Colts, in their “suck for luck” campaign have some hope in Dan Orlovsky – just kidding. Remember him from the 0-16 Lions? Yeah, that’s probably some bad karma right there. I’d be surprised if Peyton is even on the Colts staff next year and not working the sideline with his brother as a QB coach or something. Ravens to win.

Chicago at Denver Line: -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I realize that this isn’t a true upset special, as the line favors the Broncos – but no one else does. Many of us who have man love for Tim Tebow are rooting for the Broncos, but the haters are just waiting for him to fail. If he makes it to the playoffs (and he will) they’ll be biting their lips waiting to see if he blows it. And if he does (he won’t) they’ll accuse him of not being clutch or whatever. The haters (including Elway) will find a way to bring Tebow down. But he won’t have any of it. It’s not about him, and he’s made that clear. Last week it was about him in the second half though, with 202 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He only rushed four times during the game. Surprised? The Bears will be too. John Fox has done an excellent job adjusting the offense to his QB’s strengths, rather than forcing him to learn a new system mid-season. Coach of the year for sure. Meanwhile, Martz as offensive coordinator for the Bears has done a shitty job adjusting anything for the constantly struggling Caleb Hanie. His “west coast” offense is not eay for a rookie to pick up, much less mid-season. Perhaps Cutler comes back this game, perhaps not but with Forte out for the season most likely – the Bears are done. Doesn’t matter, I was going to pick the Broncos no matter what. Broncos at home.

San Francisco at Arizona Line: +4.0
With a month to go in the season, the Niners have already locked up the division, even though technically Arizona and the Seahawks are in the wild-card hunt (is the NFC that bad this year?) That being said, while Arizona pulled off an improbable victory against the Cowboys, attempting to do that against the Niners is going to be a bit more difficult. The Niners defense is tighter than a… I’ll leave that metaphor to your imagination. The Cardinals won by finding the glaring holes in the Cowboys run defense and because Romo sucks. The Niners keep winning on great defense and killer passing from young Alex Smith who is on his way to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Niners to win.

Oakland at Green Bay Line: -11.5
Meh. The Packers might toy with the Raiders for a little while, letting them score some points. The defense might give up some points, but they can score too. The Raiders have been decimated with injuries and penalties. That ass kicking they took at the hands of the Dolphins also helped them lose their standing in the division. They aren’t out of it yet, but they are this week. The Packers are unstoppable, especially by an inferior team like the Raiders. Should be fun for Palmer, just cause he gets to meet Rodgers, the QB that Palmer could have been had he been just a tad better. Packers to win.

Buffalo at San Diego Line: -7.0
What to say about the Bills? I think the loss of Fred Jackson hurt this team more than previously assumed. Spiller has been carrying the load, and doing alright, but the offense hasn’t been the same. Not to mention the defense suddenly giving up big plays late in the game. Last week against the Titans they gave up tons of yards to CJ2K and while the Chargers don’t have explosive a runner, Tolbert isn’t terrible in the backfield. The question for the Chargers is the consistency, something that hasn’t been there. Breaking a six game losing streak the Chargers now absolutely have to win to think about breaking even for the season. I’m taking the Bills in this game just because I don’t think the Chargers are for real this season. I could be wrong, because the Chargers have “charged” up late in the season in previous seasons, only to fall short come the playoffs. But those charges were contingent on the Broncos losing, which I don’t think they are going to do. Bills to somehow prevail on the road.

St. Louis at Seattle Line: -0.0
Meh. The Rams are nothing short of terrible, and the Seahawks somehow still have a chance at making the playoffs. They beat the Eagles, but so what? The Rams shouldn’t be much of a challenge, but who knows with this team? Taking the home team cause it’s easy. Seahawks at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 13

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Tebowing. All the kids are doing it.

How was your Thanksgiving? Did the themed post last week do you right? I sure hope so. I went a mildly exciting 11-5 in my picks last week. That brings me to 64% on the season, so that’s not too shabby. Another couple good weeks and I could easily be up around 67%. That’s important to me. Well, now that we are at Week 13, some of my playoff predictions are looking like they are coming true, some other ones are looking like complete busts. I do what I can.

So once again, the big talk this week is about Tim Tebow winning another game, this time against the struggling Chargers. How is Norv Turner still a coach in the NFL? The guy is terrible. The Denver defense has to be given full credit for giving Tebow the opportunity (several times) to win the game. I don’t think it’s just a matter of “stepping up,” I think that these guys, Von Miller and crew, are just getting that much better. With the defense performing as it is, and Tebow being Tebow and coach Fox running with it, it would not surprise me if the Broncos steal the division from the Raiders.

This is the part of the season where it gets really hard to make accurate picks, mostly because there are teams I WANT to win so other teams miss the playoffs. This causes me, and many other pundits, to make mistakes with the picks and over analyze things. Whatever. I picked Miami to beat the Cowboys last week. They lost by one fucking point. But had they won, I would have looked like a freaking genius. Now you see why I can’t pick against Tim Tebow the rest of the year, the same reason why his haters can’t stop hating. They are worried that if they do, their hate will be proven right after they’ve switched sides.

Featured Game

Denver at Minnesota Line: -1.0
What can I say? Tebow is the real deal. I pointed out last week that his stats were better than Elway in his first eight games. He plays on Sunday, yet the haters still line up to bring him down. The guy plays for his team, and as proven by a recent locker room speech, is an inspiration. In fact, I just made my own Tebow to sit on my desk and inspire me all day long. He’s humble, hard working and giving. In every interview he credits his team for the wins, rather than himself, and that’s true. The defense has stepped up lately, notching them another win. So now they travel to face the Vikings, who are doing horribly under another rookie QB, but one that is getting the accolades that Tebow isn’t because he’s a better passer – but he’s losing! Ponder isn’t terrible, and he’s developing a rythm with his receivers, but it’s not enough. And with Peterson injured (he’s best to stay injured to avoid risking further injury) the Vikings are done. Their defense can still stand up, but that’s not enough, not against the Tebow magic. I can’t pick against him at this point. Whatever it is, he’s got it. Broncos to win on the road.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Philadelphia at Seattle Line: +2.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Eagles are done. Put a fork in them. Andy Reid will be out of a job next year and whomever gave that huge contract to Vick should be shot in the thigh. Vince Young has been under center the last two games, and while he hasn’t been doing terrible, it hasn’t been enough. Getting torn apart by the Patriots last week didn’t help. The Seahawks suffered a similar fate, simply rolling over on defense and playing like a limp rag. This team has just given up, and that was evident on the offensive side of the ball. No running game, absolutely no deep passing game either. Thankfully, this match-up means nothing and it’s on Thursday night, so I don’t even have to watch it. Eagles to win by a narrow margin. Though I want to pick the Hawks, just so the Eagles sink further.

Tennessee at Buffalo Line: -1.5
The Titans are not out of it yet. They still have a slight chance to keep winning and beat out Houston, provided the Texans lose a few games. I don’t think that is going to happen though. The Titans played a terrible game last week with tons of turnovers and sloppy play by Hasselbeck. I don’t think he does good in the weather. They gave the Bucs every chance to win. I really think they should give Jake Locker the ball for the rest of the season, especially this week out in the cold at Buffalo. The Bills are off to a disappointing finish, all but eliminated from the playoffs after a hot start. Winning against the Jets would have helped, but one stupid penalty and two dropped TD passes by Stevie Johnson (elite receiver you are not) gave the Jets time to come back and win. However, I still think the Bills are a good team, they just need to get their shit together. They win this week at home against the Titans.

Kansas City at Chicago Line: -7.5
This is the part of the season where I don’t feel that a 3000 word column is necessary for some of these teams. Like the Chiefs. Clearly, they are not where they want to be this year with Cassel injured and Palko at the helm. However, the rest of the team hasn’t exactly stepped up, until last week. The defense held the Steelers to a mere 16 points. That’s pretty good. Sadly, some pussy ass play calling (kicking a field goal from the Steelers 22 yard line) kept the Chiefs down. They know they are done, but the NFL won’t let them just roll over and die. Speaking about rolling over and dying, are the Bears done? Hopefully Cutler tapes up his finger and gets back in there, cause Hanie seems to enjoy throwing to the wrong team. Turnovers killed the Bears last week against the Raiders, but their defense did what it could, keeping the Raiders kicking field goals. This week, they get a respite though. Bears at home.

Oakland at Miami Line: -3.0
The Raiders are one game, one measly little game ahead of the Broncos for the AFC West. Can they hold out and take the division? Their performance against the struggling Bears was no indicator. Once in the redzone, the offense was lethargic at best. Their defense kept the Bears in the game, giving up just enough. It wasn’t a dominating performance. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had a strong showing against the much superior Cowboys but left Romo too much time at the end to drive for a game winning field goal. The Dolphins lost by one point, but the defense was strong, intercepting Romo twice. Miami is favored in this game, and I don’t think it’s too wild to suggest that they will in fact, win it. Miami at home.

Indianapolis at New England Line: -21.0
Yeah, Patriots by a bunch. Upset special! Just kidding. This classic annual match-up has no steam this year. It’s Painter vs. Brady in a showdown that will resemble Rocky vs. a hanging side of beef. The beef is gonna get tenderized. If you have any Patriots players on your fantasy team, even second stringers, play them. Some might hope that the Colts put up a fight, try to look strong but as proven last week against Carolina, they are just done. Suck for Luck right? Pats at home.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Line: -7.0
Last time the Bengals met the Steelers it was on their turf and guess what? They lost. They roll in after (get this) a tough win at home against the Browns. Dalton looked good, but the Browns played them tough and almost pulled off the upset, riding a tie until the last seconds. The Bengals are a surprisingly winning team, but they have benefited from not playing the Steelers or Ravens until the end of the year. Which is what is happening now. The Steelers played a tough game against the hapless Chiefs and (get this) barely won. They did though, and that’s all that matters. Expect more of the same in this game, Ben being shoved to the ground plenty, dusting off and throwing a TD to Wallace. Steelers are still too tough overall for the Bengals. The Bengals best bet is to run the ball right at the front line, who haven’t been the best against the run this year. AJ Green does have that star factor that can change a game, but I think the Steelers win out in the end. Steelers at home.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Line: -3.0
I was laughing out loud at the way the Bucs performed last week. One second, they were causing turnovers, the next they were turning the ball over. It was disgusting and laughable. Which is why I was laughing. Bucs fans have got to be frustrated with the way this team is performing, they have so many good weapons and a young defense (save for Barber,) they should be firing on all cylinders and competing with the Falcons and the Saints for the division. But they aren’t. At the beginning of the season I predicted them to make the playoffs. I’d like to amend that, and say the Panthers, who whupped up on the Colts last week, will finish ahead of the Bucs – placing them dead last. Which means the Bucs will lose the rest of their games and the Panthers won’t. Starts right here. Strong offense from Cam Newton (I would say Rookie MVP, but he’s not winning and Tebow is) will take this one from the Bucs, who won’t be able to keep up or stop the run. Panthers to win on the road.

NY Jets at Washington Line: +3.0
The Jets are still in the hunt for the playoffs after sneaking past the Bills last week, who had every opportunity to win that game. But they didn’t and now the Jets really need to get their shit together and win. They can do that at Washington if they can keep Helu in check and not piss off Grossman. Did you see him against the Seahawks last week? They challenged his shit and he drove right back down the field and made the Seahawks defense look the fool. I didn’t see that coming. Grossman can be good when he wants. The Jets defense, once the most glorious in the league is getting beat on the corners, which is odd cause that’s where their best defensive guys are. The secondary steps up, the Jets win easy. Jets to win on the road.

Atlanta at Houston Line: +3.0
Either Atlanta was toying with the vikings last week or they really did have some problems in the secondary. While the score wasn’t close in the end, and the Falcons had a great goal line stand, they allowed the Vikings to stage a comeback with some deep passing. Thankfully, the Texans are down to their third string QB in Yates and have Kellen Clemens waiting just in case Yates gets injured too. This team can’t catch a break. First Johnson, then Foster, now Schaub and Leinart. Good news for Houston, the Colts still suck. They still have the Titans nipping at their heels though. I think Atlanta takes this game just cause Matt Ryan plays like Aaron Rodgers when he’s in air conditioning. Falcons on the road, but Houston is not out of it yet.

Baltimore at Cleveland Line: +7.0 UPSET SPECIAL??
I haven’t picked an upset special yet. Could this be it? The Browns came out fighting last week against the Bengals and actually looked like they could have won, and should have. But they didn’t, losing another close game and sending the happy Bengals to Pittsburgh to lose this week. The Ravens and the Steelers are going to end up having an all out brawl for the playoffs, and the Browns are that little bug that’s in the way. They have a real chance to play spoiler right now, and I really, really want to pick them. I was just about to talk myself out of doing so, but the Ravens lost to the freaking Seahawks. Sure, they won last week, beating the second best team in the NFC. So they are hot and cold. Is this a cold week? Obviously I’m trying to talk myself into picking the Browns as this weeks upset special. Ugh. Yes, I’m picking the Browns to upset. I’ll probably regret it, but I have to.

Green Bay at NY Giants Line: +7.5
The New York Football Giants got rocked by the Saints last week. Just absolutely destroyed. Both sides of the ball the Giants weren’t playing well, though there were some bright spots with the receivers. Cruz had another good game, but turnovers and a severe lack of defense kept them from keeping in the game. But hey, they beat the Patriots right? Can they play spoiler for Green Bay? I really don’t think so. The one thing that Green Bay needed work on was the defense, and they are getting a bit better, ready for the playoffs. Magic number is three (games to win or Niners to lose) to shore up home field advantage. Green Bay is too good for the Giants, but they Giants will hang in there. Packers to win on the road.

Dallas at Arizona Line: +4.5
The Cowboys, as I predicted at the beginning of the year, are going to win the NFC East. Mark my words, do whatever you have to do. They aren’t playing lights out football, and certainly had a battle against Miami, but they are winning and that’s all that matters. With the Giants sucking a big loss and facing Green Bay this week, the Cowboys have the chance to put more distance between them and the only other team that can compete in the division. That would be the Giants. The Cowboys are offensively strong and only on defense are they showing some weakness, oh, and Romo from time to time. Traveling to Arizona shouldn’t be much of an issue though, and the defense should be able to get plenty of practice against Skelton and crew. Note to the Cowboys special teams though – do not kick directly to Patrick Peterson. Dallas to win on the road.

St. Louis at San Francisco Line: -14.0
Rams suck. I mean, really suck. They might have more wins, but they make the Colts look like a good team. Too many mistakes, dropped passes, poor pass protection, no running game (with Stephen Jackson even!) Not to mention the defense and special teams. Ugh. Niners to win. Done.

Detroit at New Orleans Line: -9.0
With Suh suspended for two games (should be the rest of the season to teach that guy a lesson) the Detroit defense is taking another hit. As dirty as he is, he’s good and is a strong reason why that defense did well for a little while. Lately, they’ve been playing with more aggression than skill and after watching the Packers pick them apart, I have little faith that they’ll be able to stop the Saints offense. Too many weapons, too much time for Drew Brees and too many awesome coaches on crutches on the sidelines. Either way, I think it’s just about time to stick in a fork in Detroit. Saints at home easy.

San Diego at Jacksonville Line: +3.0
This is the Monday night game? I’d rather someone give me a Sandusky Special. Well, maybe not, but either way – this game is shit. The Chargers are on a very special losing streak because it could be the last for Norv Turner, who should have been fired 100 games ago. Meanwhile, the Jags pulled rookie Gabbart last week in favor of Luke McCown then finally fired Jack Del Rio, then sold the team and now might move. Turmoil indeed! This is a match-up that no-one gives a shit about, which is why it’s probably the most unpredictable. The Chargers HAVE to win in order to even think about the playoffs. The Jags could really give a shit at this point, which makes them dangerous. I don’t think the Chargers, traveling from coast to coast, will be able to stop the run. MJD and the Jags win at home on Monday night.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 10

Thursday, November 10th, 2011

Can the magic Ginger & AJ Green beat the Steelers?

Let’s not bust any time this week. I have a busy schedule. Last week I added some gut picking to the picks. I’m dumping that. It was nice, but I actually ended up exactly the same, 8-6, as my thoughtful picks. I’m a little pissed off at my season total, 84-46 (65%) but it appears the goofballs at CBS Sports (where I frequently get my NFL news, I don’t know why) aren’t doing much better. So that’s nice. I feel a little bit better. I also feel okay because the games were so damn close last week, at least, the ones that I lost.

In other NFL news, the bye weeks are over. So that means two things. One, I’m back to picking sixteen full games. And two, it means that the Thursday night games start. I don’t like the Thursday night games because that means that’s one less game on NFLRedZone on Sunday. And I’m not staying up Thursday night to midnight to watch the game. Especially since I just got Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 and if I’m going to stay up, it’s going to be cause I’m getting my ass kicked by ten year olds online.

In other non NFL news, a happy belated birthday to my one female reader, Jennifer H. She just turned 30 or something. I don’t know. Either way, she’s older than her husband. Not a cougar, just a cradle robber. I mean, not now, but when they started dating. I think he was like 12 and she was 15 or something. Does that mean he’s got game or she doesn’t? I don’t know. Either way, happy birthday and feel free to name your pending baby after me or any NFL quarterback besides John Beck.

Featured Game

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
There are a lot of huge games this week, divisional match-ups and non divisional playoff type games. It was hard to choose which game to put up here in the top spot, but considering the Bengals position, it had to be them. They are the surprise lead in the AFC North, but have not played either the Ravens or the Steelers. This week, they welcome Pittsburgh to Ohio to finally take on the Steelers, which will be the real test of their mettle. The Steelers lost a squeaker to the Ravens (of which time management was again the enemy) after beating the Patriots. So what to think about them? We know they have a great defense, but the Bengals defense is also top three. Most of the experts are picking the Bengals to finally prove themselves, but they forget about that rookie QB at the helm. Yes, Dalton has played well so far, but he has not met a defense as good as his or as tough as the Steelers. It will be a bit of a shock. Dalton, I’d like you to meet James Harrison and the rest of the Steelers front D-line. Good luck. Steelers to win on the road and reset balance to the AFC North.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Oakland at San Diego Line: -7.0
Carson Palmer showed he’s still got the moves, throwing for over 300 yards and 3TD’s in his second start in Oakland. Don’t mind the 3 interceptions though. Or the fact that Oakland got beat hard by the Broncos defense. Who saw that coming? This week, they are hoping to get back to form against a struggling and confused Chargers team. Is this team from San Diego any good? Or is Rivers clearly still struggling under coach Norv Turner and his terrible time management and decision making skills? Rivers also threw 3 interceptions last week, 2 of them for touchdowns. Otherwise, he had a good game against a Green Bay defense that doesn’t seem to give a shit. I don’t expect him to pick apart the Oakland defense, as they generally play QB’s like Rivers a bit closer to the belt than guys like Tebow. Close game, but I’m taking the home team. Chargers to win.

New Orleans at Atlanta Line: -1.0
The killer divisional match-ups start right here in the dome in Atlanta. I’m going to say right now I’m leaning towards the Falcons. At home, Matt Ryan looks like a freaking god. They picked apart the Colts last week and only a pick six kept it from being a total shut-out. The Saints smacked around the lethargic Bucs, but clearly looking ahead to this game. The key of course is going to be whether or not Atlanta can shut down Darren Sproles amazing skills past the line of scrimmage. I’m going to say the holes in the Saints secondary will be enough for the Falcons to come out ahead. Falcons to win by a nose.

St. Louis at Cleveland Line: -3.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
While there are tons of great games, there are also a few games like this. Will the Rams be able to compete after several weeks on the road and getting beat in overtime by a terrible Arizona team? Will the Browns, who have shown nothing on offense and whose defense is slowly getting worse be able to secure a much needed home win so their fans don’t finally desert them? It’s hard to say. What is easy to say is that both these teams are performing no where near their potentials and are right where they deserve to be. The Browns would benefit from only giving the ball to Josh Cribbs, since he’s the only competent offensive player on the team right now. Browns to barely win at home.

Buffalo at Dallas Line: -5.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
On paper this is a so-so game, but in reality this game could be a make it or break it game for both teams. Last week the Bills were smacked down to reality by a Jets defense that didn’t allow Fred Jackson to run hog wild the whole game. While the Cowboys defense won’t offer as much resistance, the Bills defense will have to worry about stopping the run of explosive rookie back DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys have some ground to cover if they want to climb up and compete with the Giants who are secretly running away with the division. With half the season behind them, now is the time. However, the Bills are not just going to lay down now. Last weeks loss should have woken them up, rather than set them down. They have to contend with the Patriots. Plus, after settling an old score with the Redskins, the Bills have the same score to settle with the team that beat them in two Superbowls. Bills to win on the road.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis Line: +3.0
Last year, this would have been an easy choice. You would have said, “Peyton, no question. Colts to win.” This week the Colts are coming off a serious drubbing at home by the Falcons, and have yet to pull a win this season. There is no way the team is intentionally losing, but they certainly look like they aren’t trying very hard. Have they given up already? If the opposing defense promises to only two hand touch Peyton can he come in and play? Poor Curtis Painter, he’ll never get another starting gig in the NFL unless he can make something happen this season, which means, get a fucking win. Could this be the week? The hot and cold Jaguars come to town after a bye week and previously beating the Ravens in a strange turn of defensive prowess. If they even have a little bit of that defense, the Colts shouldn’t be an issue. But I don’t think they Colts have a 0-16 season in them, not in the defense and not in the spirit of the team. This is win number one, if only their only win this season. Colts at home.

Denver at Kansas City Line: -3.5
Did you start Tim Tebow in fantasy football last week? Sure he only had a little over a hundred yards passing, but he had over a hundred rushing and two touchdowns. Finally the Denver coaching staff realized they can’t put a young and maturing Tebow in a traditional spread offense. Instead, they adapted to the college style read option which Tebow owned while he was at Florida. In this, and strong defense by the Broncos, he is now 2-1 as a starter. Say what you want about the guy, but he is more of a winner than a loser. So suffice it to say, the Chiefs will have watched some tape this week, if they have gotten over their sorry loss to the Dolphins. The Chiefs, after winning four in a row, quickly reverted back to how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Did they get too cocky? Ahead of themselves? The Broncos, mathematically, can still win this division. No matter how plucky the KC defense is, I think that the read option beats them. Denver Tebows to win. Yeah, I’m picking it. And starting him in fantasy.

Washington at Miami Line: -4.0
I think someone on the Miami staff reads this column. They must. The week I declare that I will no longer pick them to win, they roll into Kansas City and deliver a royal smack down. They looked like a playoff caliber team. Moore threw well, Bush looked like a rookie again and they dominated on defense. Where has this team been all season? I’d like to think I was the one who motivated them to this point. That’s probably not true, but whatever. Based soley on the performance of the Dolphins last week and the fact that the Redskins have about as much offense with John Beck as a high school flag football team, Dolphins to rack up their second win.

Arizona at Philadelphia Line: -0.0
You can stare at that line all you want, it’s not going to change. This is a zero line game and for good reason, both these teams have an overpriced quarterback who isn’t worth his salt. To add fuel to the fire, last week with Kolb out, Skelton came in and won the game. Ok, to be fair to the defense, Skelton didn’t do shit. A huge blocked field goal and an overtime pick-6 secured the win. That’s what did it. Kolb might miss another start against the team that might be wishing they’d have kept him on. Instead, they get to watch Vick throw interception after interception and get hit on almost every play. It’s hard to protect your QB if he’s no longer standing anywhere near you. Regardless, the Cardinals offense is almost nonexistent. Barely beating the Rams, who have been the recipients of blowouts this year, doesn’t bode well for them against a stronger defensive team like the Eagles. I hate to do it, but Eagles to win.

Houston at Tampa Bay Line: +3.0
The Texans are flexing their AFC South dominant muscles now. They’ve all but secured what turned out to be a pretty shitty division this year. Rolling into Tampa with probably the best running game tandem in Tate and Foster is pretty much an automatic win right? Right? Right. The Tampa Bay Sucs (can we go back to that now) have been my most inconsistently picked team this year. I think that’s cause I inexplicably went against the grain and actually decided they might be good this year even though I hate them. Fuck that logic. I’m right back to hating them, as only once have I picked them correctly, and that was last week against the Saints. No more of that noise. Plus, the Texans are too damn good right now and the Sucs Barber can’t be everywhere on the field, committing penalties. Texans to win on the road.

Tennessee at Carolina Line: -3.5
You know, any recent season, with the Panthers terrible run defense and the presence of Chris Johnson, one might be easily swayed to pick the Titans to win this game. This year? With the Panthers crappy run defense and Chris Johnson unable to rack up fifty yards a game, one might be tempted to pick the Panthers to win. Especially with the electric Cam Newton at QB. But, as Michael Vick is proving, being electric doesn’t mean shit if you don’t win games, and the Panthers do not have a winning record. Instead, they come off a bye and welcome the struggling Titans to town who looked mediocre at best last week against the Bengals and lost. This week, they’ll look mediocre at best against the Panthers, and lose. Panthers at home.

Baltimore at Seattle Line: +7.0
After a rough game against the Steelers, as everyone knew it was going to be, the Ravens get to travel all the way to the west coast to take on the Seahawks. Who put that shit in that order on the schedule? Either way, the Ravens, while at time sluggish on offense, are always strong on defense. The veteran defensive players probably travel better than Joe Flacco and his on again off again offense. Plus, the Seahawks have no offense. I mean, technically they have one that is on the field, but they suck at it. The question is, will they finish low enough to draft a QB first round? Ravens to win on the road.

Detroit at Chicago Line: -3.0
This is a tough one in Chicago. The Bears just made the Eagles look like a practice squad last week, while the Lions were taking a nap after a few strange losses (and an ass whipping of Denver.) So this divisional match-up actually means something this year. It won’t matter in the long run though, as the Packers will continue to roll. Well, strike that. My guess is that the wild card in the NFC is coming from this division (since it certainly is not coming from the West) so this game is important. It’s tough to choose though. Both teams are playing smash mouth defensive football, but the Lions have looked better in their wins, while the Bears have looked worse in their losses. I’m going to shake the bones here and see where they land. Ah, the bones have spoken. High scoring game, Bears to prevail at home by a late field goal. Especially if there is outdoor weather involved.

New York at San Francisco Line: -3.0
This game just got bigger than you would have thought. Did you think at the beginning of the season you’d be looking at a 7-1 San Francisco 49′ers? Did you? Did you? No, you didn’t. You thought they were just going to be another cog in the crap fuming machine of the NFC West. Now, with seven wins they have all but locked up the division. Think about it. Last year, the Seahawks won the division at 7-9. The Niners can coast the rest of the season, but they won’t. But that certainly will change the way they play. Crabtree is finally playing to his potential, the defense is lights out, especially against the run and that Alex Smith kid got the chance and the right coach to become a quality QB. So the Giants, and their newly crowned “elite” quarterback roll into town after upsetting the Patriots. This is going to be a huge game for both teams, but the Giants need the win more. But needing doesn’t get you getting and I’m taking the Niners to satisfy the home crowd and come out of this East coast vs. West coast battle a surprising, but now expected, 8-1. Niners at home.

New England at NY Jets Line: -1.0
Oh Tom Brady, what happened buddy? You lost two in a row, and one at home. Ouch. That’s gotta sting something fierce. I bet you used extra conditioner that night. That being said, every single “expert” that I read today are sticking with the Patriots, running with the stat that Brady has never lost three in a row. News flash asshats, Brady isn’t the only guy on that team. And his interceptions aside, the defense is doing two things; jack and shit. They aren’t closing down the run, they aren’t winning the turnover battle and the secondary seems confused. Back to Brady, he’s got no deep threat. While Welker does his due, he’s not a downfield receiver. That’s killing the offense. The Jets, while a bit slow developing an offensive attack have been outstanding on defense. Revis is going to be defensive player of the year the way he’s going. The Jets are fired up and hot after their strong win over Buffalo. Can the Pats rebound on the road? Can the Jets get another huge divisional win? These questions and more will be answered Sunday… SUNDAY SUNDAY. Hell, Jets to win. Out.

Minnesota at Green Bay Line: -14.0
While the other NFC North game was hard to pick, this one is easy. Like Brett Favre before him, Aaron Rodgers has the same strange disease that only afflicts him on Monday Night. It’s like this, on Monday Night, he’s unstoppable. The Packers are unstoppable this year. Even after a nail biter against the Chargers, the Packers played it cool and kept the game further out of reach than the score would indicate. Christian Ponder is getting his third start, second against the Packers. He’ll do okay. Pat the kid on the head. There is no way he’s winning this game though. Not in Green Bay. Not this year. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 6

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Even in a bye week, all eyes are on Tim Tebow

I’d like to quote a sentence from my NFC predictions about the Eagles: “But I’m going to say this now – they won’t even win the division.” Look, I went a terrible 7-6 this week. That sucks for only thirteen games. And when all is said and done after the season is over, you’ll see that a lot of my picks for the playoffs were dead wrong. I said the Bills might compete, they are kicking ass. I said the Raiders won’t compete, they are. So it’s not a perfect system. I call it as I see it. So that brings me to 53-24 (69%) on the season. If I was a head coach I’d still have a job. So now we have week 6 and the biggest questions are still if the Bills are legit, if the Lions are legit, if Tim Tebow is legit and if the Steelers are legit. We know the Patriots are legit, the Texans will blow it and the Eagles blow ass. On with the picks!

Featured Game

Bye Week at Denver
You are probably wondering why this is my featured game when it’s not actually a game. Well, besides being unable to decide on a featured game since they are all good matchups I decided to go with the biggest story right now, and that’s Tim Tebow. Tebow time is finally here. Down 26-10 in the fourth quarter, Tim Tebow fired up his team and staged a comeback that was only lost on a missed 2 point conversion. Tebow brings an energy to the Denver squad that can’t be denied and this bye week couldn’t come at better time. Now Fox has two weeks to draw up some Tebow specific plays. I haven’t looked at Denver’s schedule yet, but I’m picking them to win next week.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Carolina at Atlanta Line: -5.5
Cam Newton almost pulled off the biggest win of his career, but his 200+ yards and three TD’s didn’t band-aid a defense that allowed way too many 3rd down conversions. They aren’t going to fare much better against the Falcons in the dome. While the Falcons didn’t do much better against Green Bay, they were up against one of the best defenses in the league and kept the game relatively close. They seemed to fall apart in the second half. Whomever is leading this game at half time should win. I’m a little torn on this one, because I really want to pick the Panthers but I think that Atlanta will prevail at home.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati Line: -6.0
Tough loss for the Colts, allowing the Chiefs to stage a huge comeback. Their run defense has a lot of holes and that’s something the Bungles seem to be doing right. Of course, it took a last second effort to pull a win out against the Jags, but I don’t think at home, against the struggling Colts should take a last minute effort. While Painter and Garcon have discovered each other, it’s not going to be enough to beat the Bungles ever growing stronger defense. While not a playoff team, they are good enough to beat the Peyton-less Colts. Bungles at home.

San Francisco at Detroit Line: -6.0
Wow. The Niners had over 400 yards of offense. Three touchdowns from Alex Smith with no interceptions against the Bucs. Not to mention the defense coming strong with three picks, one returned for a TD. They looked dominant. The rushing yards alone were around 200. But now they travel to Detroit to meet the 5-0 Lions who are looking for a record sixth win. Detroit is playing strong football right now and I don’t see them having any losses when they face Green Bay on Thanksgiving day. So until then, I’m picking Stafford and crew to keep winning. Plus, I have Calvin Johnson on my fantasy team. First WR ever to accrue nine TD’s in his first five games. That’s crazy good. Expect him to keep rolling. Lions to win at home.

St. Louis at Green Bay Line: -10.5
The Rams are coming off a bye week and this is not the team they want to face doing so. Maybe they can pump themselves up and stay in the game for a little bit, but this game is going to be a good old fashioned ass whipping. They have no answer for the Packers offense, no answer for the defense. Sam Bradford is going to be in tears by the end of the game. The one bright spot for the Rams is… none. I can’t think of one. The Packers will stay undefeated until they play the Lions on Thanksgiving, which will be the most epic Thanksgiving day game ever. Finally. Packers to win at home.

Buffalo at NY Giants Line: -2.0
The Giants. Sigh. They converted on several third downs on their last drive with good passing. Then, near the end zone Eli throws an obvious pick six. Hats off to the Seattle defense for recognizing a pattern a three year old could pick up. Eli is in love with receiver Victor Cruz, but forcing into double coverage in the red zone with plenty of time on the clock? What the hell? I guess if the Giants run game existed, that wouldn’t have been a problem. That and the disgusting inconsistency of the defense. The Giants are struggling. So why are they favored against the Bills? Cause they are playing in Snoopy stadium? Whatever. The Bills defense bailed out the offense against the Eagles last week, but did allow a comeback. Expect some of the same this week, the Giants jump out, the Bills jump ahead, the Giants come back, the Bills defense prevails. Bills to win on the road.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh Line: -9.5
Ok, so I was wrong about the Steelers last week. Chris Berman was right, if not now – when? The Steelers looked like the Steelers for the first time this season. Big Ben tossed five TD’s, the defense was tight and kept Chris Johnson in check the whole game. Sure, the running back by committee isn’t quite clicking for the Steelers, but against the Jags, at home – who cares? Ben plays better when he’s hurt, and he’s still limping. The Jags and their young QB show some potential, but potential doesn’t win games. And they won’t win this one. Steelers at home.

Philadelphia at Washington Line: +3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!
Being 100% right about the Eagles feels pretty good. I said they are not a playoff team, and Vick was overrated. Sure, he’s setting rushing records, but who gives a fuck? They aren’t winning. That’s the important thing isn’t it? They have to win games. He’s still making bad passing decisions, running too early and getting boxed up and just not playing like a good QB. Trust me, Tim Tebow is watching Vick and saying “don’t do that.” Meanwhile, the Redskins are surprisingly leading the NFC East. Not sure I saw that coming. The Skins need to keep that running game developing with Ryan Torain and push the Eagles on defense. Expect them to come after Vick strong. I’m going against the bookies and picking the Skins to upset at home, and I’m ashamed for the idiots that have them as an underdog.

Cleveland at Oakland Line: -3.0
The Raiders stole a win against the Texans for sure last week. Maybe they were inspired by the loss of Al Davis, who knows? Either way they were penalized a lot, but thankfully special teams held out so they could win. I dunno, this team shows sparks of being a competitor, and they have the leagues leading rusher, but still, they are week to week in my eyes. The Browns coming off a bye week have little to be happy about at the moment. A rough loss to the Titans exposed holes in a defense once thought to be strong. The rushing game is having trouble even with downstill strong man Hillis. The Browns have an uphill battle this week, as weak teams have problems playing in the pit. I’m taking Oakland to win, which I hate doing to my Browns, but they need to tighten up their game. If the Browns do win however, I won’t be too surprised, just pissed I didn’t pick them.

Houston at Baltimore Line: -7.0
Offhand I couldn’t tell you why Houston lost to the Raiders. Maybe there was magic in the air after the passing of Al Davis, I have no idea. A week after routing the Steelers, the Texans offensive line looked a bit weak, not giving Schaub enough time to stage a comeback. Not to mention the defense even allowing a comeback, yet holding the Raiders to under 300 yards total offense. Foster couldn’t get going, and the loss of Johnson hurts this team every day. The Ravens are tougher than the Steelers and have no questions when it comes to the steadfastness of their defense. The Texans are going to have problems protecting Schaub and even establishing a run game. I expect them to stay in it, but I expect the Ravens to stay ahead. Ravens to win at home.

Dallas at New England Line: -6.5
Pundits are saying that if the real Tony Romo stands up for this game that the Cowboys have a chance. I say it doesn’t matter. Unless Romo morphs into Steve Young, there is no way the Cowboys are going to roll into New England and have a rats chance in hell of winning. The Patriots, while defensively weak, are killing it in the passing and scoring game. You know, the bits that really matter. Wes Welker is on pace for like 2 million catches, and Tom Brady is on pace for like 80 gadzillion yards. Whatever. The Cowboys can compete, but only against teams like the Rams or maybe the Eagles. Against the highest scoring team in the NFL? Forget it. Pats at home.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay Line: -3.5
That line is wrong right? Look, the Saints struggled a little bit against the Panthers last week, but they pulled off the win. The defense was the problem, but Cam Newton has more offense in his little finger than the Bucs have shown all season. Last week they showed none as they got pistol whipped by the Niners. The fact is that while playing at home makes the Bucs a three point favorite, the home crowd isn’t going to give the Bucs enough of a bump to keep up with Drew Brees. I’d like to see them perform a bit, and really this is must-win game for them to stay up in the division, but they won’t. Saints on the road.

Minnesota at Chicago Line: -3.0 Crapfest of the Week!
This game is the crapfest of the week because of defense. The Bears allowed a 73 yard TD pass and an 88 yard TD run to the Lions. Show some respect, the Lions are a good team, but the Bears defense has looked like shit all season. They can’t seem to get any consistency on the contain, and their run defense and tackling is just plain sloppy. You think the Vikings are any different? After getting whipped by the Chiefs, they turn around and their defense gets it done. But trust me, that was a fluke. The Cardinals aren’t exactly the team to set defensive standards against. This game is going to come down to who can score the most points. Keeping the other team from scoring isn’t going to be a huge pressure point. That being said, I’m taking the Vikings to upset the Bears just because I think they have a little more offense. Oh, and Adrian Peterson. Just give him the ball, against the Bears run defense? He’ll have a career day.

Miami at NY Jets Line: -6.0
Needless to say, if you have any Jets players – start them in fantasy this week. The Dolphins have found ways to lose in every game this year, mostly by not being competetive at all. Henne is out, which means Moore, discarded by Carolina, will be behind center. Doesn’t matter. The defense can’t get it done, the offense is terrible and they are on the road. All factors point to a big Jets win. But wait, the Jets have been terribly inconsistent on defense as of late. Could this be the game for the Dolphins? No, it won’t. Jets to win at home. Man, that’s a lot of home teams this week that I’ve got winning. We’ll see if that gamble pays off. Statistically, it should. This could be a possible upset, but I’m sticking with the Jets.

In the Sauna (Bye Week Teams)

Bye Week at Arizona
The offensive line is terrible, keeping Beanie Wells from finding holes and forcing Kolb to throw interceptions. They need to work on that, oh, and learning how to fucking tackle too. This team is only getting worse. Hopefully this bye week provides the reset that they sorely need.

Bye Week at Kansas City
Hey, nice comeback against the shitty Colts. That’s not going to be enough. Can the Chiefs beat anyone in their division this year? Probably not. It’s going to be a tough season. The loss of Jamaal Charles really struck this team hard. Cassel seems to be getting his shit together. Relax, take a week off, come back strong.

Bye Week at San Diego
The Chargers have problems. Their record won’t suggest it, but they do. And now they have the 1-4 Broncos in their rear view mirror. Watch out Chargers, Tebow is coming for you. Give him a whole game to do what he did in a quarter and the next match-up between these two teams will go the other way. On a side note, Teressa loves cats.

Bye Week at Seattle
For a brief moment, Seattle looked like a competent team with the potential to compete in their crappy division. Then Tavaris Jackson went down, nothing changed really. It was the defense that bailed them out last week, and it’ll be the defense that keeps this team in games. For the bye, they might want to work on building a nice passing game. If that’s possible.

Bye Week at Tennessee
After a strong week against the hapless Browns, the Titans more or less rolled over for the Steelers. So what is up with this team? One second they appear unstoppable, the next they appear as if they have no secondary? They don’t have an easy schedule so they might want to think about looking at some of the holes in their defense and figuring out a way to get Chris Johnson past the line of scrimmage.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: One More Week

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

One more week. How about some snacks?

So last week I said that this week would be my week one picks. I lied. I totally forgot we still had another week to go, hell my fantasy drafts aren’t even all completed. Anyway, I’ve decided to fill this space with some random ramblings related to football. Or not related to football, but mostly related to football. You get the point. I’ll start off with a question, then my answer. My question is what are you looking forward to in week one of the NFL season?

My answer, is I’m looking forward to Michael Vick busting out and costing the Eagles a shit ton of money. Without even starting a game this season outside of a mediocre pre-season, they have signed him to a six year, $100 million dollar deal. That’s the second one of his career. As a side note, he’s broke and nearly all his income is going to debt collection. So he sure did need this deal. The thing is, from my perspective, he’s still not a good pocket passer and his gimmick of running around like a loose pitbull on chicken legs isn’t hard for good defenses to figure out. Cover the receivers, put a spotter on him and it’s game over for the Eagles. Teams figured it out late in the year last year, and Vick was mega human again. It might fool most of the teams on their schedule, but not the top ones and not the ones in the playoffs.

The other thing about Vick is he’s just one James Harrison hit away from getting another season stopping injury. The Eagles play the AFC East this year. You think the Jets (whom they start the season against) and the Patriots are going to go easy on him or be fooled by his antics? Both these teams have excellent secondary defenses and aren’t going to let him win the game by himself. Bottom line, I still think the guy is overrated just a bit. Yes, he can extend plays and help the offense, but he’s still not a true quarterback and I don’t think he ever will be.

Next question, why is Brady Quinn not starting at tight end? The guy is built like a tight end, not a quarterback, not to mention it might be his only chance to start in a NFL game. Otherwise, he could be out of football in a few short months. He’s third string behind a rookie (who is really no better than him) and a veteran that is yet to really prove he’s got the muster to lead a team. Denver should get their shit together and help this kid salvage his career while he’s still young. Move him to TE and let him play.

Colt McCoy. This kid is going to be awesome. He’s got killer poise and pocket presence and he can run too. Colt, aside from having an amazing football name, is going to be an MVP someday for sure. He reminds me of a young Tom Brady, or John Elway really.

I really don’t have much else to talk about this week. I’m hoping Oregon beats the crap out of LSU, considering that LSU can suffer a loss and still be in the thick of it in the SEC, where a one loss PAC-10 team is all but finished. So, that’s it. Next week, week one predictions for sure this time. I promise. Pinky swear and what not.

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