Posts About ‘Sports’

Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Superbowl XLVI

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012

What a pretty trophy.

Welcome to the big game. I’m here in Indianapolis, hanging out on Media Day and trying to find a path through the crowd so I can touch Mel Kiper’s hair. I don’t understand why they let all these fans in. All they are doing is stinking up the joint with their handfuls of nachos and sweat stained Peyton Manning jerseys. There are no Giants or Patriots fans here. I spoke to one of the volunteers, he said that they’ll be flying in several thousand corporate ticket holders, like a ton of people from Doritos, slap some jerseys on them and hope they cheer at the right time. That’s fucked up. There will be no true fans in the building.

I spent a few minutes out in the parking lot with the true fans, guys wearing meatball stained Brady jerseys who drove all the way from the armpits of Boston. They are grilling, drunk at 8am on a Tuesday and they won’t get in the game. A lot of them will go home with citations and injuries. There is a surprising amount of sex going on, considering the weather and how most of the fans are quite overweight. I don’t talk to anyone about how most of the seats are going to be taken up by corporate sponsors, media & all the players baby mamas. There is a whole numbered section reserved just for women that Ochocinco has knocked up. What I do talk to them about is who they think is going to win and why, but honestly they were too drunk and belligerent to get any straight answers beyond “Giants rule!” or “Patriots Rule!” So I went back inside, hoping to sneak into the cheerleaders locker room.

Instead of naked cheerleaders, I spent some time at the brunch buffet with Archie Manning. I asked him if he was proud of his boys. In between bites of a biscuit smothered in turkey gravy, he said that he was proud of both of them, but wished that they hadn’t followed in his footsteps. I asked him why and he told me that he worries they’ll both end up injured for life, and no matter how much money they have it’s not going to matter, they’ll be broken. The game is much rougher now, he said, back in the day you worried about injury but the defense seems out to hurt. He then offered me a slice of ham also smothered in turkey gravy. As I ate the ham, I noticed Merril Hoge out of the corner of my eye.

It took me a couple minutes to get Merril’s attention, as every mirror or reflective surface (including camera lenses) he had to adjust his giant windsor knot. It was like it was stuffed with cotton. Finally I cornered him and was able to ask about his achilles heel this season, Tim Tebow. Merril was quick to point out what a Tebow honk I’ve been this season and I explained it was because I had faith in the guy. He had magic. Merril said that magic is fake and while he might have been wrong on paper, he still feels Tebow will be a bust in the NFL. I decided to drop it and ask who he thought would win the Superbowl. Not Tim Tebow he said, and walked away.

I decided to play the next hour or so fast and loose, so I followed Kelly Clarkson around, counting how many bags of travel size Lays chips she went through. For a fat chick, she smells a lot like an old lady. I guess I should have been surprised by how many linemen she tried to blow, but not surprised that she propositioned them with a mouthful of chips. When her security guy noticed I was trailing her around the stadium he chased me off with a cattle prod. I ended up hiding in Madonna’s dressing room, which was full of dead baby fetuses. Apparently the stem cells were the only thing keeping her alive. Man, that halftime show is gonna suck balls.

New York Giants at New England Patriots

February 5, 2012, 6:29 PM ET
Line: -3.0 55.0 O/U

Flashback: Superbowl XLII – after losing in their last game of the season to the Patriots 38-35 the Giants beat the Patriots in the Superbowl by a final score of 17-14. The Patriots finished the season 18-1 overall, while the Giants became the first NFC Wild-Card team to win a Superbowl. It was a major upset, and plenty of history was made as Eli Manning exceeded expectations and led a last minute, 4th quarter drive highlighted by an amazing “pinned to the helmet” catch by David Tyree. The Patriots, seemingly defeated had 35 seconds to respond, and were stopped cold by the stronger Giants defense.

Offensive/Defensive Breakdown (Giants O v. Patriots D): The Giants are a ground and pound team, with an occasional emphasis on the deep pass. Manning has got the receivers to make this happen and while he hasn’t relied as much on his tight ends as other teams, they are available to pick up outlet passes. The Giants ran, ran, ran against the Niners, who had the best run defense in the league. It paid off, as they didn’t pick up a ton of yards but ground out the game and were able to control the tempo. Manning has shades of Peyton when it comes to making adjustments, just with less wild body language. The Giants should have a smooth day on offense, as the Patriots defense, while stepping their game up and looking good against a limited Ravens offense, are still lagging in many areas, such as run defense. The Patriots defense is going to have no choice but to stack the box with five if they want to stop the run. Of course this will pull one man out of coverage, which Manning can easily exploit. The Giants will win this battle of offense v. defense. The only question is whether the Patriots can score more points.

How to Ruin a Classic: What is more appealing about the Superbowl? The game itself or the commercials? At a whopping $3.5mm for a 30 second spot, the commercials better not disappoint. Of course we’ll have a full slate of Budweiser commercials, Coke Polar Bears, Doritos causing people to act like idiots and probably that white trash Pepsi guy pretending he’s a coach. But we’ll also have a lot of car commercials, most of which will come off as douchey and pretentious. Like the ad from Honda for their CRV. In it, they (along with the vapid participation of Matthew Broderick) destroy a classic and save us the trouble of being pissed off during the game.

Many people enjoyed that ad, many people did not. Really, it doesn’t matter. It’s a fucking commercial. The larger point is this, many ads are being shown before the game. Many people watch the game for the ads (because they are mindless fucking Americans) – meh, who am I kidding? It won’t matter. It’ll still be the highest rated television program of the year, in the world, on every channel. Yearggh Football!! Screw you soccer!

Offensive/Defensive Breakdown (Patriots O v. Giants D): The Patriots have one of the most unpredictable, explosive offenses in the league. Most of it comes down to play calling and Bellichick’s ability to recognize defensive tendencies and make in-game adjustments, something many other coaches fail to do on both sides of the ball. His biggest accomplishment this year was handing TE Gronkowski with precision. When not lined up to block, he could be handling business as a receiver, or as a running back. Using Hernandez on the end around while Gronk was being double teamed was genius. Pulling Gronk back to the traditional TE set to throw off a defense that was looking for him as a wide receiver, also genius. The thing is though, that the Patriots offense is all about timing. The Ravens showed that if you disrupt their timing and get after Brady, you can hold their scoring down. The Giants have probably the best front four in the league and will certainly mess up Brady’s rhythm. Having a good front four who can apply pressure without the blitz is important, because that leaves more in coverage to handle the receivers, in this case, two very proficient tight ends.

Final Analysis: The difference between the Giants and the Ravens is that the Giants can score. Even if the Patriots defense steps up, the Giants offense is much more explosive than the Ravens offense. The Patriots defense won’t stack up in the end. While high scoring, the game against the Ravens showed that the Pats offense can be held down and smothered, which is what the Giants are going to do. I’m looking for the Giants to come out running, and to come out pushing hard on Brady. Bottom line, defense wins championships. And yes, the Patriots have a bottom ranked defense and beat the Ravens, but the Patriots defense did not play like a bottom ranked defense in that game. They played like a top ranked one. It won’t matter. The Patriots have been good this year, but have struggled against teams with a winning record, and beating the lethargic offense of the Ravens and the strange one of the Broncos won’t prepare them to face the Giants again. I’ve got the Giants winning this one, final score 27-24.

Next week: Nothing. The Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game will return in August with the NFC/AFC predictions. There might be a draft day column, but don’t hold your breath.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Pro Bowl = Lame

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

The pro bowl, who cares?

I always have trouble filling this space in the week before the Superbowl. Recently though, the NFL moved the Pro Bowl from the week after the Superbowl (where no one gave a shit about it) to the week before the Superbowl (where no one gives a shit about it). First off, the Pro Bowl selections are made before the season is even over. What the fuck is up with that? The best players haven’t even had a full season to shine? That just proves that it’s nothing more than a bullshit popularity contest. Then, consider that many players that deserve to be in the Pro Bowl aren’t, because they are playing the Superbowl. Which is where they’d rather be anyway.

So of course I have no picks this week, because the Pro Bowl is a waste of time and I don’t think I’ve watched it in about 10 years. Instead, I’m going to repost some text from the middle of the offseason where I ranked the All-Star games among all major sports. I think that Hockey has gone back to the regular format for All-Stars, rather than team captains, but the ranking hasn’t changed. Actually, I have no idea. First though, I’ll run down my pre-season playoff picks and see if I got any right.

Preseason Playoff Picks

NFC

Cowboys (division win)
Packers (division win, Superbowl)
Lions (wild-card)
Bucs (wild-card)
Falcons (division win)
Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks, Niners (division win – couldn’t decide)

AFC

Steelers (division win)
Ravens (wild-card)
Colts (division win – assuming Peyton was playing)
Texans (wild-card)
Patriots (division win, Superbowl)
Chiefs (division win)

So let’s see, I was right about the Lions, Falcons, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Patriots making the playoffs. However, only the Patriots have been my most reliable pre-season pick, yet I picked against them last week like an idiot. Whatever.

Ranking the All-Star Shenanigans

Originally posted July 2011 and I was too lazy to change the specific detail pertaining to last years dates, so deal.

#5 The NFL Pro-Bowl

This game went from being a joke, to an absolute joke. Not only do most of the players complain about going, but it’s like watching a game of touch football. Understandably, no one wants to get hurt in the last game of the season, and most of them just want to get their short vacations started. Even though now we’re seeing them experience an extended vacation. The NFL thought they solved this issue by moving the Pro-Bowl from the week after the Superbowl to the week before the Superbowl in Miami. This was a terrible idea, as now the best players in the league (you know, the ones in the Superbowl) can’t even be recognized as all-stars because they can’t play in the game. For those two reasons, the quality of play and the lack of players, this is my worst rated All-Star game. Add on the fact that the television coverage is basically second rate, the Pro-Bowl blows ass.

#4 MLB All-Star Game

Now, don’t get me wrong – I love the build-up to this game. Specifically the homerun derby, especially since they started letting players pick their hitters. This is a fun time and seems like the players truly enjoy hanging out and slamming free homeruns. Plus, a lot of charity is involved in the derby, so that’s a good thing too. It’s also a lot more entertaining to watch than the game the next day. Now, not everyone agrees with me that the MLB All-Star game is one of the worst, and that’s all well and good but I think for me it’s more the coverage that ruins it for me than the game itself. First off, Fox’s coverage of the game is way too much pomp and circumstance. This year, it was even worse when they led in with ridiculous previews for the X-Factor show. No one watching the game gives a shit. Not to mention, is anyone else just plain tired of Joe Buck?

The game itself isn’t too bad. The teams actually appear like they are trying to win the game. They are a little held back, and usually it comes down to who hits the homeruns. The pitchers are certainly holding back, as an injury on the mound is always in their minds. But what makes it real shit is that it “means something.” You can blame Bud Selig for that, in response to an All-Star game that went 11 innings with no winner, Selig decided that it would be a good idea that the winner of the All-Star game determines home field advantage in the World Series. Are you fucking kidding me? No where does home advantage mean more than in the World Series and it was determined by a meaningless game played by the most popular (because it is a popularity contest, that was assured by letting the fans vote) players and not by record as it should, and is throughout the playoffs. This is a ridiculous end result of the game, and is just plain stupid. I hope, whatever National League team (as the NL All-Stars won this year off a Cecil Fielder homerun) send a thank you note to Fielder for that win. Of course, they could also send fuck you notes to the American League pitchers, who spoon fed him that homerun. Weak.

#3 MLS All-Star Game

I’ve actually never watched a MLS All-Star game. I know that they do it a little different, the best of the U.S. teams vs. a world team like Manchester United. That’s a pretty kick-ass game, because in between dives, they actually play a hard game because it’s based on pride. Sadly, I think the American team loses a lot, but that really doesn’t matter much in the scheme of things. I’ll watch it this year, I promise.

#2 NBA All-Star Game

Like the MLB game, the best part of the NBA All-Star break is the pre-game stuff the day before. The dunk contest highlights everything that is wrong with the NBA, as far as the individualism and so on, but it’s a fucking blast to watch. They jump over cars, shoot 3-pointers and have a blast. The game itself is highly competitive for a game that doesn’t mean anything, this is the general mindset in the NBA though, so that makes sense. It’s probably the only NBA game I watch all year besides the playoffs, as it’s a true All-Star game, with a lot of who-dat players based on stats rather than pure popularity, though there is some of that. In the end though, it’s still the NBA and doesn’t have half as much energy as my number one.

#1 NHL All-Star Game

The NHL game wasn’t always my favorite. For a long while it was East vs. West, which was okay but a bit bland to watch. Then it was USA vs. Canada (or was it World, I can’t remember) but this year they blew me away with their handling of the All-Star game. They went all playground rules on us. First they picked team captains, then they staged a mock draft where the captains picked their teams. The coverage of this took itself a bit too seriously, but it was great that there was no telling who was going to be on which team. This added a level of enjoyment to it because you knew that heated rivals could end up on the same team, and they did. I don’t remember what team won, but I know the score was in the double digits on both sides.

Adding another fun dimension to the game was having the goalies miked up during the game. In between blocking shots, they were bullshitting with the announcers, just having a fun time and performing for the fans. Because in the end, that’s what this game highlighted – the fans. Before the game there was tons of fan interaction, the referees didn’t even call offsides until the 3rd period and were just letting the players play, and the fans enjoy a high scoring exhibition game. Which is what all the All-Star games should be, exhibition games for the fans, to see the best players in the league let loose a little bit so we can look at them as people like us, rather than rich superstars.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Championship Weekend

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Niners vs. Giants. Should be a new classic.

I’m not going to bore you with mindless statistics and blather. The fact is that last week was a tough week to pick and statistics did not lie. 75% of the home teams won, but not the 75% I picked. By the time the Giants v Packers game started, three home teams had won. So I loudly declared to pretty much one person that the Giants were going to win the game. They did, and the Packers, who had a monumental season all for naught, are done. Now we have four teams left and picking the winners is toughest it’s been all season.

That being said, it is only two games so I have to fill up this space with something. So in personal news, I’ll be in Chicago this week (Friday – Sunday) attending a Kenmore event at their bequest. If you are around, or just on Twitter, come hang out downtown Chicago. CC will be there with me as well, killing some deep dish. On with the picks!

AFC Championship: Baltimore at New England
Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
Line: 50.0 O/U -7.5

This game is the proof – does defense win championships? The Patriots have a bottom ranked defense, yet they sure came alive against the Broncos – but the Broncos defense was also terrible, so there’s that. The Patriots have won games with offense all year long, and I don’t expect that strategy to totally turn around in a week. They are going to come into this game firing and looking to rack up the score against the defensive minded Ravens. It’s not going to happen. The Ravens held the Texans, who in effect – held the Ravens. The Ravens offensive line didn’t perform as well as they should have, but really have nothing to worry about with the weak pass rush of the Patriots. Sure, they managed to fluster Tebow a couple times, but that was a fluke. Most of the time he had all day and then some to throw. The Ravens are going to force the Patriots hand on offense, as their defense will be swarming Brady and throwing off his timing. This is what I said the Broncos needed to do, but failed to do. Everything about the Patriots offense is timing, especially with the routes run by the tight ends. On the offensive side of the ball for the Ravens, they’ll have to tighten up their protection a bit and re-establish the running game, which should be easy against the Patriots poor run defense. Bottom line, the Patriots don’t have the defense to stop the Ravens mediocre offense, and they might have a powerful offense, but defense wins championships. Bottom line. On championship weekend the statistics state that 50% of the home teams win. So in this one, I’m taking the Ravens to overcome and get into the Superbowl, against (obviously) the Niners, and I’ll tell you why in the next paragraph.

NFC Championship: New York at San Francisco
Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
Line: 44.0 O/U -2.0

Everyone loves the Giants in this game, because they can’t believe that the Niners are restoring their franchise to glory. Where Singletary coached with negative enforcement, Harbaugh coaches with positive reinforcement, something that was evident in Vernon Davis’ tears and hug after he scored the winning touchdown last week. That was the Saints game to lose, and they made sure to lose, especially on that last drive when their secondary seemed to forget they were still playing a game and gave the Niners the whole field. So now the Niners welcome the hot and cold Giants to town, who turn it on when they need to. And they needed to last week and they damn sure did. They ran the Packers right off their own field, dominating on offense and on defense. They made it look easy. Part of that might have been the Packers offense not playing up to par with all the drops, but the pressure on Rodgers helped as well. Against the Niners, they are going up against probably the best fundamental defense in the league. Rather than go for the flashy Sportscenter play, the Niners just plain cover and tackle well. They bump receivers at the line to throw off timing, they get the pressure on with their front four, rarely running a crazy eight man blitz and almost always win the turnover game. Their defense will stifle Manning and his receivers, so the Giants will have to rely on their own defense. They might have a slight edge over the Niners offense in that case, but Alex Smith is a legit playmaker, but he gets no love for it. Right now, his report with his receivers is the best it’s ever been. I’m taking the Niners to win at home, and for this game to become a new classic. Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh in the Superbowl. You want to know who I’m going to pick to win that game? You’ll have to wait two weeks.

Next week: Pro Bowl Idiocy and where I went wrong with my pre-season picks.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Divisional Round Madness

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

"Stop Gore and they won’t score"

I guess last week I must have been smoking something heavy, because I went 1-3. The only correct pick I had was the Saints. Now, the teams I wanted to win, won. I wanted Houston to win and I wanted the Broncos to win, I just didn’t pick them. This week should make a little more sense as since 1990 (when the current playoff format started) the home teams in the divisional round are a stout 61-23. That’s .726 winning percentage or about 75%. So based on percentages, only one of this weeks road teams will win. So which one will it be?

Well, the reason that the home team has such an advantage in the divisional round is because all four home teams have been spending the last two weeks resting sore muscles, studying tape and practicing. Take the Patriots v. Broncos. While the Patriots starters have essentially had three weeks off, the Broncos are coming into New England on a short week. Only six days to prepare. Against three weeks? Who will be the more prepared team? Of course, the only positive is there is such a thing as over preparing.

This might be a good time to mention that my Superbowl pick this year was the Packers vs. Patriots. It should also be noted that I had no idea that Tim Tebow was going to be in the playoffs. I had the Broncos dead last in their division and the Chiefs going back to the playoffs. Great call there right? Who knew the Chiefs were going to suck so freaking bad? And who knew that Jesus would come down from the heavens, anoint Tim Tebow the savior of football, kick Merril Hodge in the balls and zip back up to the clouds? Football! Yearggh!

New Orleans at San Francisco
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +3.0
“Stop Gore and they won’t score,” opined @mbletsch at lunch the other day. There is a little more to the San Francisco offense than Frank Gore, but they need his legs to be chugging against the Saints front line in order to open up the passing game. But the Saints are no fools, rarely using an overload blitz against the run (as many teams seem to foolishly do these days) and shouldn’t have much problem defending the pass. The Niners don’t have a guy like Megatron, who still managed to scorch the Saints defensive backs last week. The Saints tore up the Lions like it was an arena football game, after giving them slight hope in the first half. The Niners will have to contain Sproles and push through to pressure Drew Brees. The Saints run such complex and unique passing routes, that Drew Brees needs as much time as possible to let the play develop. There is tons of misdirection and the key here is pressure, pressure, pressure. If the Niners and their top ranked defense fail to move Brees out of the pocket, they will fail to win this game. It’s that simple. The Lions failed to do this, they failed to properly cover receivers in the secondary and they failed to win. The key to a Saints victory is score fast and keep scoring, something they do well. Something the Niners do well is ground out the clock and games once they have a lead. The Saints have to avoid that from happening. This is my one away team pick though, as I’m sticking with the Saints to go to the NFC Championship game.

Denver at New England
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: -13.5
I’m going to be honest here, I want the Broncos to win. I want them to overcome nearly a two touchdown line to beat the Patriots, in New England and go to the AFC Championship game. But I’ve already played the percentages. I picked the Saints to win, and that’s my one away team. This is a history making year though, so anything is possible. But is a Denver win possible? The Patriots rolled into Denver a few weeks back, and after letting the Broncos get an early lead, simply annihilated them on offense, making the Denver defense look the fool. There were a couple things happening in that game that are different now. First off, John Fox finally started calling in passing plays. Second, Tebow started completing passes on passing plays. Of course, the Patriots are going to be watching tape from the Pittsburgh game and wondering how receivers got that open, and how Tebow got that accurate. But will they be looking for the pass, the run or the Tebow run? You can’t anticipate all three and I think John Fox and crew, with absolutely nothing to lose, will have some serious surprises in store for the Patriots and their bottom ranked defense. Remember, the Steelers had the number one ranked defense, and the Broncos torched them through the air. Maybe because they didn’t see it coming, whatever. It’s not going to matter against the Patriots, they have a terrible defense. This game will be won or lost by the Denver defense. It’s not about containing the run, it’s about guessing if the ball is going to Welker, Hernandez or Gronkowski. Double teaming a tight end is out of the question. So what’s the key? Get. Tom. Brady. Sack his pretty ass. For finesse QB’s like Brady, everything is about timing. Throw off his timing, throw off his game. We’ll see if the Broncos can accomplish this. Either way, as much as I want the Broncos to win, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the score. I expect this game to be a lot closer than 14 points, but still picking the Patriots to win and make a lot of Tebow fans very, very sad. Merril Hodge will be happy though, but fuck Merril Hodge.

Houston at Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -7.0
The worst team in the playoffs was proven to be the Bengals, as they completely rolled over for the Texans, who overpowered them on offense and on defense. The Bengals didn’t seem to be playing in the same league. It was the first match-up of rookie QB’s in a playoff game, and only the 3rd stringer prevailed. This week Yates takes his team into the very hostile Baltimore to go up a defense just as, if not stronger than his teams. Really, Flacco and Yates basically cancel themselves out. While not a rookie, Flacco still makes the same late game errors that rookies tend to make. Plus, the rushing game makes for a great storyline too. And that’s where the win is going to come from. Who can break the line and get the yards, Ray Rice or Arian Foster? I think it’s going to be Rice, based on the continued strength and pull of the Ravens offensive line. I think Foster will get plenty of carries and break off a couple good runs, but Rice is a very explosive player that also receives well in the flat. Since the defenses are so good, it’s going to come down to offense and it’s going to be the running game that seals the deal. This is a great match-up and should be a very exciting game to watch. Big defensive plays and great running. Statistics are statistics though, so I’m taking the Ravens to win.

New York at Green Bay
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -9.0
There are pundits talking about how the Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs on their way to a Superbowl. Most of those same Giants, especially on the defense, are still on this team. So after making short work of the Falcons (who are barely worth a mention at this point) the Giants roll into the hallowed field in the middle of the small town of Green Bay Wisconsin. I would love to think that the Giants really do stand a chance this year against the explosive offense of the Packers, but I really don’t think they do. At least not for 60 minutes. Look, while the Packers don’t have the best defense, they do have a playmaking defense. That’s enough to keep the game in their favor when they get ahead, or fall slightly behind. The keys to victory lie in the hands of the starting QB’s. Both Manning and Rodgers are kings of the two minute drill, with only Eli slipping up now and again with a late interception (see Seahawks loss.) I’m taking the Packers in this game not just because of statistics but because they will just score more points. Math wins at this point. Packers to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Wild-Card Weekend

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

"Hey Joe, see you next week. Maybe."


With the regular season over it’s time to ask the question we ask every playoff season in the NFL – does defense win championships? The Packers and the Patriots have the leagues Worst defenses, but the leagues best offenses. The Steelers, Niners, Texans and Ravens have the best defenses with moderate offenses. So does defense win championships? Well, history would tell us that they do, but history hasn’t seen offenses like the Packers, Saints and Patriots.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens. And consider this stat, the last three teams the Steelers have beaten in the Superbowl were the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams. This year, they are in and the Niners are in. So are they fated to meet in the big game so the Steelers can sweep the NFC West? Another fun storyline. Only four games to pick this week, so let’s get this done.

Cincinnati at Houston
Saturday 4:30 PM ET – Line: -3.0
Once the Texans secured a playoff spot, they stopped winning. They also lost another QB to injury. So now they are down to Jake Delhomme, who I don’t put a lot of confidence in. Hell, who wants to put anything into a one time starter who is now the 4th string QB? Hopefully Yates will be back in the game, as his injury wasn’t as severe as the Matts. The Bengals are playing smart football right now, but were unable to beat teams with better defenses than them, namely the Ravens and the Steelers. While teams tend to play different (or better) in the playoffs, the Bengals have to really step it up to beat the Texans and their defense, who play with a similar attack as the Ravens. I’m taking the Bengals in this game though, because Andy Dalton has been quite impressive this season. Their offense has really clicked this year, and while they haven’t beaten tough defenses, they have the tools to do so. Based on the QB siutation in Houston, Bengals to win.

Detroit at New Orleans
Saturday 8:00 PM ET – Line: 11.0
My 11 year old pointed out that as dominant as the Saints have been since their Superbowl win, they still got beat in the playoffs last year by the Seahawks, who had won their division at 8-8 and played at the Saints in the dome. So the Lions, who have had a back and forth season now slide down to the dome to play the Saints, who have all the advantages. They set all kinds of offensive records this year, and the Lions, well, they got into the playoffs. That’s a huge win for them. The Saints have the offense, and the defense to get it done with little trouble. The problem is going to be if the defense of the Lions can play without penalty after penalty. I doubt they can, their agressiveness level will be at an all time high. I’m taking the Saints to win this game, just for the same reason I picked them last year. On paper they are the better team but as they showed last year, anything can happen. Saints at home.

Atlanta at NY Giants
Sunday 1:00 PM ET – Line: -3.0
I was reading something, I don’t remember what, that said Matt Ryan is not Drew Brees, not Tom Brady and not Eli Manning. That’s right, he’s not but he’s a damn accurate QB with the best running game in the playoffs. The Falcons will have a few surprises in store for the Giants in the ground game, but they’ll be up against the best part of the Giants, which is the front four. The offense struggles at times, as Cruz is good for the big play when he can get open, but that doesn’t happen as often as it should. The Giants have to attack quickly so the Falcons can’t ground out the clock on the ground. They need to force Ryan to the air as quickly as possible. For the Falcons, they need to hold the run game and push the Giants defense back for as long as possible. Tire them out and dry out the offence on the bench. I’m taking the Falcons to win here, just because of the running game.

Pittsburgh at Denver
Sunday 4:30 PM ET – Line: +9.0
The Broncos backed into the playoffs thanks to the Raiders completely sucking and getting beat by the Chargers. That’s all in the past now. The Broncos, finishing the season at an even 8-8 are hosting a playoff game this weekend, which begs for the argument that the playoffs should be a seeded system based on record for homefield advantage. The Steelers, at an impressive 12-4 have to play an away game for the Wild-Card. That’s bullshit right there. Either way, they roll into Denver and have all the advantages in this game. At one point seeming like a visionary, John Fox has coached Denver into three straight losses, making Tebow look like a terrible QB by abandoning the run too early, but then keeping all the passing short instead of just letting Tebow loose on the field. Teams have kind of figured out the read option, but if Denver brings the run back, then they have their advantage back. It won’t matter though, with James Harrison on the other side of the ball, Tebow is going to be scrambling a lot. I’d love to see Denver win this game, but they won’t. Maybe I shouldn’t put it that way. They might. If they watch some tape, and see the way Cleveland (not a playoff team or anywhere close) ground out the Steelers, they might have a chance. They have to run the ball and they have to let Tebow take chances. Even Elway wants Tebow to throw more. One of the reasons for three straight losses was ultra-conservative play calling. This is the playoffs, you are 8-8 and no one gave you a rats chance in hell of winning, take some fucking chances. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year, which gives Denver a chance at taking advantage. We’ll see. Pittsburgh to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 17

Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Watch your back Drew, here comes Brady


So I’m thinking of instead of making this a general sports column when the season is over, just turning it into the weekly Tebow report. Just kidding. I’m still fishing for good ideas though, I’m sure that I’ll think of something. Speaking about Tebow though, was Jesus on vacation on his birthday weekend or something? Four interceptions? Nah, it was because for some reason Fox dropped the read option after the first quarter which allowed the Bills excellent corners to drop back and make it easy to intercept Tebow. Of course, there were also some more drops by the Denver receivers… what am I doing? Moving on.

This week is all divisional and while some playoff teams have little to gain by winning, and some teams have nothing to lose, some teams are still fighting for a playoff spot. Now, no team WANTS to lose – ever. That’s proven by the 0-13 Colts now at 2-13 and most likely losing dibs on the first round first pick. The AFC West and NFC East are still undecided and up to four teams are in the running for the last wild card in the AFC. It’s a race to the finish in Week 17. Next week we’ll look at the playoffs, and take a look back at my season start predictions to see how wrong, or right, I was.

For this week though, sixteen games between now and the playoffs. There is no crapfest this week, there is no featured game, there is no upset special. Too many games have playoff implications and I totally forgot to make those selections before I wrote this lede. So there’s that. Alright, enough, how about some picks?

Detroit at Green Bay Line: +3.5
Detroit is in. Green Bay is in. Neither of these teams have anything to play for so I guarantee you that they’ll be resting starters. It’ll be like a preseason game. And if I was Green Bay, I wouldn’t play Rodgers at all for risk of injury against a notoriously violent and highly penalized Detroit team. They can’t risk that at all, and I’m not saying they’ll intentionally be gunning for Rodgers, but they will. Either way, the defense won’t be resting much. Packers to win at home on their way to a two week break before the divisional match-ups.

San Francisco at St. Louis Line: +10.5
The Niners have not yet sealed up a first round bye advantage in the playoffs, a win here and a New Orleans loss would do that, I think. I’m not sure who would hold the tiebreaker here. Either way, the Niners don’t even have to put an offense on the field to win against the Rams, they can just play straight defense and the Rams terrible offense should give up the ball enough for the Niners to score. I think that line is a bit generous, but Niners to win on the road.

NY Jets at Miami Line: -1.0
I’m really looking forward to this game. After losing to the Giants, Rex Ryan still had the audacity to pick a verbal fight with Brandon Jacobs, then still predict his team would make the playoffs and win the Superbowl. He’s out of his fucking mind. I’m looking for the Dolphins to put the Jets out of their misery and push them out of playoff contention. This is going to be a good back and forth game, with big plays being made on the defensive side of the ball. Look for Miami to jump the Jets and smack them down. Miami to win at home.

Chicago at Minnesota Line: -0.0
The Bears season has turned into quite a farce, while the Vikings season was one to begin with. Now, with Adrian Peterson out with a torn ACL and MCL, their future is in question. No doubt they’ll be drafting a running back high in the draft. Meanwhile, the Bears have not won since Cutler went down and we can all blame Martz for that. Martz should be fired at the end of the year for his inability to adapt to a new quarterback and inability to switch up the offense. He’s a great coordinator, but he messed up here letting his ego get in the way of running the offense based on the skills of the QB. The Vikings will win this week, just cause of Webb being able to run around like a mad chicken. Vikings at home.

Buffalo at New England Line: -11.5
The Patriots have sealed up everything playoff related besides home field advantage. They don’t need to win, but they need Baltimore to lose in that case. But let’s be honest here. Brady is 190 passing yards behind Drew Brees for the passing record, and while he’ll be hard pressed to surpass him, you know damn well that Bellichick will keep him in the game as long as possible to beat Brees to get the record at the end of the season. The Bills, while looking impressive against Denver, are not that great of a team sadly. They had a lot of potential, so what happened? I have no idea really, besides the new contract for Fitz. So, Patriots to win at home.

Carolina at New Orleans Line: -9.0
Same deal as the Niners game here, with a little twist. The Saints are looking for a first round bye and they need to win to do that. Also, Brees has surpassed Marino for the passing record, and I expect him to play nearly a full game here to put a bit of padding into that record. Plus, Payton is the type of coach that would keep his starters in the game, risking injury to pad that record, since he’d be the coach of record when that record was set. The Panthers have had a positive season. First off, Cam Newton is a superstar, and he set the record for most rushing TD’s by a QB. Second, they didn’t finish last. They will be finishing ahead of the Buccaneers, which is positive. However, Saints to win at home.

Washington at Philadelphia Line: -9.5
Since it’s impossible that both the Giants and Cowboys will lose this week (they play each other) the Eagles won’t be making the playoffs. Thank Odin. However, they did throw a wrench into things last week with their win over the Cowboys. So now they get to finish the season at home against the Redskins, a team that once again failed to find an identity and didn’t amount to anything. The Eagles are going to finish 8-8, but considering the talent on this team, and the money spent that’s like the Yankees finishing dead last behind the Orioles. Eagles fans have got to be disappointed. Is it worth firing Andy Reid over? No. Unless he does it again next year. Eagles at home.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville Line: -3.5
The Colts, with two wins have only this game to lose before getting beat to the number one pick in the draft. Can they do it? Can they lose on the road to the Jaguars? Like I said, no team wants to lose, and Orlofsky certainly doesn’t want to lose, as he’s now won two straight. Last week’s win against the Texans was epic and a great thing to add to his resume if he wants a starting job somewhere next year. I’m sure KC, Arizona and a few others will be looking. So the Jags only bright spot this season has been the running of Maurice Jones-Drew. Gabbart was horrendous to watch, the kid was just not ready. Hopefully he gets a veteran to study under before getting another shot. Anyway, I’m taking the Colts to win, which should make the draft interesting. Will they trade up for Luck? Colts on the road.

Tennessee at Houston Line: +1.5
Houston has a hard road ahead of them, thanks to some less than stellar play since they clinched the playoffs. A couple of losses later, and now they are going in without a bye or home-field advantage. Hopefully Wade Phillips is back this week because some of the defensive decisions the past two weeks were terrible and they’ll need him for the playoffs. They can take a loss here and nothing will change. Except for their record. They made the playoffs for the first time in team history, let’s finish on a high note. Of course, they don’t have any back-ups sitting around in case Yates gets hurt. The Titans season has been forgettable to say the least. Chris Johnson took 2/3 of the season to apparently bathe in his millions of dollars due to the new contract before he decided to start earning it. I think the lack of an offseason really hurt the offensive line of the Titans. However, a Titans win with Denver, Oakland and Jets losing does mean playoffs – so there’s that. Cross your fingers Titans fans, it’s gonna be interesting. Titans to win.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Line: -12.0
The Bucs are a joke this year, which is sad because as a non-Bucs fan living in Tampa I actually picked them to go to the playoffs. Whatever. The Falcons are pissed cause Brees stayed in the game last week, which sounds like hapless whining to me and should piss off the Football Gods. If you can’t beat the Saints now what makes us think you can beat anyone in the first round of the playoffs? Atlanta is in and really can’t improve their position so they’ll be resting starters. Doesn’t matter, the Bucs have given up for sure. Falcons to win at home.

Baltimore at Cincinnati Line: +3.0
The Ravens and Steelers are tied atop the division right now, winner gets the division and they both are already going to the playoffs. Clearly, this scenario favors the Steelers as they have the Browns, whereas the Ravens have the Bengals, who they’ve already beaten once this year. The Bengals, so close to being dominant were unable to beat the Ravens or the Steelers this year and need a win here to get into the playoffs. Well, a loss might do it – but everyone else would have to lose too. Sadly, I don’t think that the Bengals will be able to beat the Ravens this year. They just aren’t there yet. The defensive pressure is too much for Dalton at this point. He does tend to make good decisions when under pressure, so that helps. But I’m taking the Ravens to win. The AFC Wild-Card is still up for grabs.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland Line: -0.0
I looked twice, that line seemed to be for real. Even though the Steelers absolutely have to win to get the division and not a wild-card spot. Even with a Ravens loss and a Steelers loss, the Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers since they beat them twice this year. The Browns have had a disappointing season to say the least, always finding a way to lose late in the game rather than a way to win. They blew their chance against the Ravens last week when they were drawn offsides on a 4th and 2 with two minutes left in the game, essentially handing the Ravens the win. Pathetic. I’m not counting them out against the Steelers, I just can’t pick them. Ah hell, Browns to magically win at home, but just cause Ben will probably still be out or at least only take half the snaps.

Kansas City at Denver Line: -3.5
Like I said in the open, the clocks stopped on Tebow Time last week. For some reason Fox abandoned the read option midway through the game and let the Bills defensive backs settle into their own read option, reading where Tebow was being forced to throw the ball. So the Chiefs come into town, and look at that – it’s Kyle Orton, formerly traded from the the Bears to the Broncos then waived earlier this year in favor of Tebow. Will Orton get his revenge on the team that cast him out and cast them out of the playoffs? A Denver loss and Oakland win will do just that. The only chance Denver has is to win. The Chiefs are going to make that tough, but I think the Broncos get a lead early and keep it. Broncos at home.

San Diego at Oakland Line: -3.0
The Chargers, who took a serious beating last week at the hands of the Lions, look to finish their season on a high note by playing spoiler for the Raiders. The Raiders need to win and hope the Broncos lose in order to make the playoffs, which is a tough scenario for a team that had so much promise in the first half of the season. Plagued by injuries and penalties they were unable to overcome but still have a chance. Last week one of the things I guaranteed happens in December didn’t happen, well, neither of them happened, but relevant to this – Rivers lost. Do I think he loses again in the month of December? Nope. Because football is on Sunday, which is the 1st of January. I’m taking the Chargers to win and send the Broncos to the playoffs.

Seattle at Arizona Line: -3.0
The Cardinals season fell short, the Seahawks season fell short. I guess 7-9 wasn’t going to do it this year (as it did last year.) So now both these teams are out and this game is just for shits and giggles. It is the difference between a losing and winning season though, so they’ll be out there, playing hard or whatever. Who cares? I can’t find myself every caring about these teams. Um, Seahawks to win.

Dallas at NY Giants Line: -2.5
This game is awesome. I love that it’s the last game of the season, I love that neither of these half ass teams have made the playoffs yet and it comes down to this. I love that Romo has a hurt hand. I love that Eli can look amazing one week, then throw four interceptions the next. I love that the Eagles dominated both these teams yet will not win the division or get into the playoffs. Two weeks ago (I think) I predicted that the Giants would beat the Cowboys in Dallas (they did) and the Cowboys will win in New York. So, Cowboys to win.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 16

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

"Hey buddy. Hey buddy. IHOP after the game? You know it."

Sigh. Last week was terrible, for pretty much everyone I think. Who saw all those upsets coming? I went 7-9, which I suppose is respectable. I mean, the Seahawks made the playoffs last year with the same record. There were so many upsets last week, I mean – the Packers? Who could have seen that coming. Either way, it’s a new week and I really need to make up some ground if I want a cushy new job at CBS Sports or ESPN. Which I’ll never get only going 63% on the year. Well, that’s still better than most analysts.

So the playoff picture is really fucked up this year. I mean, you have your division winners with the AFC West still mathematically up for grabs, and you have a giant battle on both sides for the wild-card with about thirty billion different scenarios. It should be an interesting week of football. Don’t forget, games are on Saturday this week, not Sunday because of your Christian god and Santa and what not. Also, no one gives a shit about the NBA. On with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at NY Jets Line: -3.0
This game, as Rex Ryan seems to think, is going to be war. The Giants looked like shit last week as Eli threw three interceptions and the defense rolled over like bitches to the Redskins. The Giants seemed to defer the division to the Cowboys with relative ease. Same for the Jets, who kept the Eagles hopes alive by playing like absolute shit. So what happened to the New York teams? They both get a home game here, so there should be some fights in the crowd for sure. They both have QB’s on the cusp of greatness, though Eli obviously is the better QB most days. Both of them tend to make horrible decisions under pressure, but only one of them has the two minute drill down pat, and that’s Eli. I think the Jets will go up early, only to lose late. The Giants have to win this game if they want to have a chance at the playoffs, and win next week, and hope the Cowboys lose. Giants to win.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Houston at Indianapolis Line: +6.0
Wade Phillips needs to ask for a huge raise. These two teams have shown how important one man can be to a whole team, to a season. However, only one has locked up the playoffs for the first time in their existence, and that would be the Texans. A week after sealing the deal and without Wade Phillips coaching the defense, the Texans suffered a huge upset at the hands of the Panthers, just rolling over on the defensive side of the ball. The fans were booing in Texas (they made it to the playoffs – shut the fuck up!) This week, going in to face the one win Colts (on a precarious ledge between winning too many games and losing enough to secure the 1st pick in the draft) they shouldn’t have any issues. The Colts offense doesn’t have the running attack like the Panthers. The Colts need to lose anyway. They don’t want to I’m sure. But they have one win and the Rams and Vikings each have two. So, they need to stay at one to get “Luck”y. Texans to win on the road.

Denver at Buffalo Line: +3.0
Here’s my analysis of the Denver vs New England game. The Denver defense, stout coming into the game, clearly fell apart in the second half. How do you not cover the best receiving tight end in the league with double coverage? They did a good job of rushing Brady in the first half, then gave it up in the second. And when Bellichick declined that penalty to give the Broncos 4th and one, knowing that Fox would take the safe three points, I knew it was going to be over for the Broncos. The Broncos are the number one rushing team in the league and are you telling me they couldn’t push it one fucking yard? The haters came out immediately blaming Tebow, but he did what he could (save for the late game 30 yard sack) considering his offensive line play was terrible, even against a three man rush. The Broncos were outcoached, and that’s on Fox and the defense. Moving on, they are still leading the division and a win in Buffalo will secure that playoff spot for them as division winners. Buffalo is on a six game skid and it keeps getting worse. A snow game last week in which they usually win, they didn’t. They are terrible right now, and I expect that to continue. Time to rebuild – again. Denver to win on the road.

Arizona at Cincinnati Line: -4.5
A lot of teams, especially in the NFC are still in the “hunt” for the playoffs – at least statistically. The Cardinals being a prime example. If they win out, and every one around them loses, they could be hitting a wild-card spot. But a lot of pieces need to fall into place. This team is not to be counted out, as the Browns learned last week. But that was the Browns, who are coached idiotically. Do not punt directly to the hottest punt return man in the league! The Bengals are unfortunately going to be shut out of the playoffs, sucks for them after their hot start. Dalton has matured into quite the starting QB and shouldn’t have much trouble at home picking apart the Cardinals secondary. The question is, can the Bengals secondary cover Fitzgerald? Bengals to win, barely.

Jacksonville at Tennessee Line: -9.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
Well, if the Titans have achieved anything this year it was handing the Colts their first (and possibly only) win of the season. Good on them. Someone needed to. It was getting depressing. The Titans looked lethargic at best, apparently they forgot at that point they still had a shot at the playoffs, not anymore. The good news is, we won’t have to see Hasselbeck limping around the field as they are sure to give Locker some playing time. The Jags, well, they had a forgettable season even though MJD had a great year. I’d look for him to rack up some yards in this game, as the Titans run defense has totally fallen apart late in the season. I’m taking the Jags to win, just because they have absolutely nothing to lose and seem to be on again/off again and this should be an on week. Jags on the road.

Oakland at Kansas City Line: -1.0
Mathematically, and pending a Denver loss (which hopefully won’t happen) both these teams are still in the running for a playoff spot. While the Raiders are on a clear slide, the Chiefs beat the Packers. They did it with defense and Romeo Crennel should get coach of the year for that shit. Or at least a full time job. Either way, the Chiefs aren’t the best offensive team, but the Raiders aren’t either. In fact, the only thing the Raiders are good at lately are committing penalties. I’m looking for this game to be no different and the outcome to be determined on penalties and turnovers. Flip a coin. I’m taking the Chiefs at home.

Miami at New England Line: -10.5
No surprise that Miami swept the Bills this year, and no surprise that the Patriots beat the Broncos proper right? Even though I picked the Broncos, but it still wasn’t surprising. As well as Miami is playing right now, and as much as I’d love to pick an upset here it’s not going to happen. Brady and team are setting all kinds of records offensively and should continue against the inconsistent Miami defense. I see no reason why this won’t be a high scoring game though, so look for some fun touchdowns and for Miami to stay in the game through at least three quarters. Patriots to win at home.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh Line: -16.0
For some reason, the Rams beating the Saints is still somewhere in our minds and that should give hope to Rams fans, but it doesn’t. They are terrible from front to back and this week should be no different. The pressure from the Steelers defense will be unbearable for the offense. While the Steelers got whipped in San Francisco, that was clearly a superior defensive team. Too bad they won’t meet in the playoffs. Steelers to win easy at home.

Minnesota at Washington Line: -6.5
The Redskins should be happy with themselves. While still having no shot at a division they have no general business being in (cause they suck and there should be a division for teams like this so they can wallow in their suckiness) they sure did muck up the Giants chances last week. Of course, they were assisted by Eli Manning throwing them the ball plenty of times. I think they win again this week against a Vikings team that has struggled to get anything going this year, getting blown out last week against the Saints. They have hope though, as Ponder and Webb make a good one-two combo at QB. Now, if only one of them was good enough to win a game. Redskins to win at home.

Tampa Bay at Carolina Line: -7.5
The Bucs are terrible. There was a report on the radio that the GM calls down plays to Rahim Morris during the game. What kind of undermining bullshit is that? No wonder they can’t get anything done on the field. They are a disappointment to the league and to the city of Tampa. They may as well switch their jerseys back to the old creamsicles and call it a day. Panthers to win in dominant fashion.

Cleveland at Baltimore Line: -13.0
Someone at work said they had a hard time making this pick because of the way the Ravens played last week against the Chargers. I said are you kidding me? Look at the way the Browns have played all season long! They constantly find ways to lose games, most recently kicking to the best punt returner in the league this year. Morons. Colt is out and Seneca is in, and that shouldn’t give Browns fans anything to hope for at this moment. Meanwhile, the Ravens with Ray Lewis back are losing again. I wonder if he’s shoving aside defensive linemen to try and make every play himself, because whatever he’s doing, it ain’t helping. The Ravens need a big win and this one should be big. Ravens at home.

San Diego at Detroit Line: -3.0
There are two things that are certain in December. One, is that it’s the holidays and you’ll be getting tons of holiday cheer and your once a year Christmas blow job. The second, is that Philip Rivers is nearly unstoppable in December. He continued his tear last weak, beating the Ravens in glorious fashion, making Norv Turner actually look good for once. I think that the Chargers roll into Detroit and pull off another big win, really throwing a wrench into the possibility of the Lions making the playoffs. Chargers to win.

Philadelphia at Dallas Line: -3.0
Let’s see, as much as I want the Eagles to be out of the playoff conversation, this division sucks just enough for them to still be in it. Their only shot is if both the Cowboys and the Giants drop their next two, and the Eagles win their next two. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker, at 3-1 in the division currently. They roll in to Dallas this week, then they get Washington at home next week. So can the “dream team” do it or is their nightmare season finally coming to an end in Dallas? Some pundits have said Romo has had a career season, I say he’s overrated and generally shit, yet, he’s currently helming a division leading team and slaughtered a very crappy Bucs team last week. Dallas making the playoffs seemed the most likely scenario but man, the Eagles have finally got their shit together and are looking like the dream team we were promised. The Cowboys defense has really not played up to expectations and they really need to be on this game. I predicted the Cowboys would win the division, and picking the Eagles here would bounce that prediction unless the Eagles were to lose to Washington next week. The Eagles are playing too good right now, Eagles to win on the road and totally muck up the division.

San Francisco at Seattle Line: +1.5
This is the thought in the Seahawks locker room. If Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona & Chicago don’t win any more games, and the Hawks win their last two they could make the playoffs. Here’s reality, they won’t get past the Niners. Not on a good day. While they went to town on the Bears last week, the Niners are not the Bears and are lights out on defense. Did you see how they beat the Steelers? Defensive pressure. The Niners still have something to play for, and that’s a first round bye. It’s between them and the Saints for that. Of course, the Saints haven’t even technically won their division yet. They will. The Niners should dominate in this game and put the Seahawks out of their misery.

Chicago at Green Bay Line: -13.0
It’s amazing that with Cutler out this long that Martz hasn’t made any adjustments in the offensive game plan to make it any easier for Caleb Hanie. That’s why the Bears haven’t won at all since Cutler has been out, the game is too complicated at this point for Hanie and the Bears have thrown away a once promising season. Sad for Bears fans, good for Packers fans as they should hope for an easy win in this one. But wait, the KC defense stepped up and showed other teams how to beat the Packers – get after Rodgers like your life depends on it. Duh. At the same time, it exposed holes in the Green Bay offensive line and they’ve had a week to fix them. I don’t think the KC win will do anything to help other teams against a normally unstoppable Green Bay offense, but it does kind of bring them down to Earth. Green Bay to win at home.

Atlanta at New Orleans Line: -7.0
Atlanta is pretty much in the playoffs, pending disaster. They have no chance at the division (well, they do but the Saints would have to lose two in a row which ain’t gonna happen,) but the Saints want that delicious home field advantage. So the Saints are going to come out firing in this one. If they get a big lead, will they rest Drew Brees and prevent him from breaking Marino’s record? I doubt it. That’s just not the way Sean Peyton coaches this team. This should be a nice back and forth game, another good Monday night match-up worth watching. The Falcons though, while they can suffer a loss and still be in a good position for the playoffs could stand to get another win just to be sure. Of course, for them to get knocked out of the playoffs a lot of other shit around the NFC has to go down, which is possible based on the match-ups this week. I’m sticking with the Saints though, who are actually looking better than the Packers.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 15

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Overrated.



Week 15 can be a very depressing week. That’s the week that I realize that I’ve been completely eliminated from all my fantasy football leagues, and in this case, I’ve got to pay out for the one that I’m running. Considering I already spent all their money, I’ve got to sell some plasma, sperm, blood, whatever to get the three hundred bucks. So there’s that.

I went 13-3 last week, which brings me to 134-74 (64%) on the season. That’s not too shabby. I’d like to finish above 65% so the next couple weeks are going to be paramount. I would have done better last week, but for some reason I forgot that the Chargers turn it on in December and the Bills suck right now. Meh, such is life. So this week we have a Thursday night game and a Saturday night game. Neither of which I’ll probably be watching. If it ain’t on RedZone then forget it. Except for the first time this season there is a Monday night game worth watching.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, this year this column will end the week after the Superbowl like previous years, but I’m going to do something different than “the Week in Sports” because frankly, I don’t give a shit about the NBA. Really, I don’t. Quit talking to me about it. On with the picks!

Featured Game

NY Jets at Philadelphia Line: -3.0
This weeks featured game was a tough one. Most of the match-ups are winners versus losers, save for the Monday night game and a couple others. Here’s the reason I chose to highlight this game – because I’m tired of the fucking Eagles. The Eagles, while winning last week, are terribly overrated and have pissed me off since day one. First, that dirtbag Vick gets a huge contract (and Tebow gets railed for running around) and then they start losing. Yet, they are still constantly in the playoff conversation. Why? Why are they still talking about the Eagles like they are going to make the playoffs? Even now, they are still in the conversation. I don’t want them to be in the conversation anymore. Last week the Jets put it on strong and layed down a whupping. I think they roll like that again this week. The key is going to be stopping the running game of the Eagles which isn’t that bad. So I’m taking the Jets to win on the road and for the love of all that is holy, take the Eagles out of any conversation except the biggest busts of the year.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Jacksonville at Atlanta Line: -11.5
Don’t let the Jags domination over the Bucs lull you into a false sense of anything. The Bucs were unable to stop MJD and his four touchdowns. However, if he has a repeat performance you could be looking at a near upset here. It took all of four quarters for the Falcons to get control of the run defense against the Panthers, relying on the quick play of Matt Ryan and the offense to make up the deficit and pull off the win. Yes, the Falcons will probably jump out to an early lead here, nullifying a slow running game build-up on the Jags side. If the Jags can somehow get out in front first, perhaps they can compete and control the tempo. I don’t see that happening though. Atlanta to win at home.

Dallas at Tampa Bay Line: +7.0
Both these teams had laughable games last week. The Bucs because they totally got smoked by the inferior Jags, and the Cowboys because a week after icing their own kicker, he gets iced and blocked by the opposing team. Up until that point, the Cowboys were just getting lucky. The most overrated team in the league. Good thing they get to play the Bucs. The first and last time I went to a Bucs game it was a season opener against the Cowboys in which the Bucs got pistol whipped up and down the field. I don’t see this contest being any different. The Bucs have been a disappointment all season. What went wrong? Blount is having a good year, but the offense isn’t rallying around him. And the defense is not winning the takeaway game. Dallas to win on the road.

Miami at Buffalo Line: +1.5
Ah, this was always one of my favorite match-ups year in and year out. Recently, it’s been a little stale. The Dolphins surprised me last week – by losing. One of the three games I was wrong on. I really thought they could keep up their win streak. But perhaps Sporano already knew he was out. But it wasn’t coaching, it was mistake after mistake and really shoddy defense. They looked like the Bills look now, which should make this an interesting match-up this week. If the Dolphins come in hot, they can win easy. If the Bills get back to early season form, then perhaps they’ll win. This game could literally go either way. But then, so could every single game every single week. Buffalo to win just cause it’ll be cold out.

Seattle at Chicago Line: -3.5
In Barber’s defense, he was heading for a seam up the sideline and was pushed out. Momentum carried him out of bounds. Of course, he should have been running towards the middle of the field, but instinct took over. The fumble, can’t forgive that. Gotta protect the ball late in the game. Really though, neither Gould or Prater hit those field goals if the game had been in Chicago. The thin mountain air is what killed the Bears. Not to mention the early ground and pound. The scrappy Seahawks are riding in, coming in off another big win. Of course, the Bears are not the Rams and their defense can be stifling. Does Lynch still have it in him to push through the Chicago defense? The Chicago running game is dead, so they have to rely on Hanie since I don’t think Cutler is coming back yet. This should be a fun game, but this is the time of year the percentages really favor the home team. Bears to win at home.

Tennessee at Indianapolis Line: +6.5
Can the Colts rise up and play spoiler? The Titans are less than quietly rising up in the AFC wild-card chase, and still have a pretty good shot at nabbing a playoff spot. However, they still have some hurdles, eh, who am I kidding? The Colts run defense is non-existent and Chris Johnson is finally back up to speed. He’s going to tear apart the Colts on the ground. I bet he runs for 200+ yards easy. Jake Locker will be in at QB this week, wait, are the Titans still in it? I dunno. I don’t feel like pulling up the rankings. Either way, they’ll win. Titans on the road.

Green Bay at Kansas City Line: +14.0
Todd Hailey is out. Who cares? He had a terrible record in his short tenure at KC. This team is a mess. How much do I need to write here? Green Bay will be 18-1 this year, after Tebow beats them in the Superbowl with a last second jump pass at the goal line. This week, Green Bay to win. They could play their practice squad guys and still win.

Cincinnati at St. Louis Line: +7.0
The Bengals had the game well in hand last week, what happened? How did they let a rookie QB drive the length of the field to win the game with a wide open touchdown pass? Well, it’s all about defense. On that last drive, the Texans came right at the Bengals secondary, shooting the gap and taking advantage of the prevent defense. The prevent defense only prevents you from winning! The Bengals were rushing Yates, thinking he would make a mistake or take a sack – he didn’t. The Bengals failed on defense late in the game, when it mattered most. Which is why they haven’t beaten the Steelers or Ravens this year. They can’t compete at a high level. Thankfully for them, they’ll be competing at a low level this week when they visit the struggling Rams. But remember, the Rams throttled the Saints this year, and while that might have been a fluke, they can get it going on defense when they need to. But Dalton is a smart rookie QB with adequate protection. I think the Bengals win, but on the luck of a late field goal.

New Orleans at Minnesota Line: +7.0
The Saints, well, you can’t count them out of a game. That’s for sure. Brees got a bit flustered last week against the Titans, but prevailed late. It was interesting seeing the Saints playing from behind, but really not switching up their game plan. Sproles is a very explosive player and he’s going to tear up the field against the Vikings. The thing is, the Vikings don’t really suck. Ponder has done a great job this year, but had a bad game last week. He was relieved by Joe Webb who nearly led his team to a win. That last bullshit non-call on the facemask that caused the fumble is the only reason the Vikings didn’t pull out a win against the once great (this year at least) Lions. I’m trying to talk myself into picking an upset here, but I can’t realistically do that. The Saints have too much offensive power to lose to the Vikings. Unlike the Lions, who have one premier receiver (Megatron) and covering him mucks up the whole offensive plan. The Saints have too many weapons for that to work. Saints on the road.

Washington at NY Giants Line: -7.0
The word “elite” has been thrown around lately in the same sentence as the word “Eli.” Is Manning really an elite QB? His last minute comeback against Dallas (aided by a blocked field goal) would suggest to me that he is. This isn’t the first time he’s done that for sure. With Peyton out, probably forever, we only have one Manning to look forward to watching on Sundays, so he better fucking be elite. This isn’t the McCown family we’re talking about here. The Redskins are terrible. Seriously. They can find a way to lose a game like no other team and it all continuously comes down to shitty play calling and lapses on defense. They had the Patriots, but surely couldn’t close or hold the game. They play division rival Giants, they lose. Giants to win.

Carolina at Houston Line: -6.5
Wade Phillips is out for two games. I know that might not matter to you, but he’s brought this team from the 30th ranked defense to the 2nd ranked defense in the span of a season. That’s important, especially now that the Texans have made the playoffs for the first time ever. So do they need to keep winning? They certainly do. The Panthers roll in, hot after a loss to the Falcons. Again, too many mistakes and holes on defense kept the Panthers from the win. Newton looked good, but was chased the whole game. He’s gonna have to be wearing his running shoes against the Texans for sure. In fact, I think there is a whipping in the making here. Newton and his overconfidence will be shut down against the front of the Texans defense. No matter what week it is in the NFL, every team wants to win. I just don’t think the Panthers will this week. Houston at home.

Detroit at Oakland Line: +1.0
Detroit now, is a joke. I picked them and their dirty ass defense to win last week just cause they were at home. That late facemask should have given the Vikings another shot to pull off the win, but it wasn’t flagged. Lame. This week, they travel to Oakland, who got flogged by the Packers last week. But that was the Packers. The Raiders are falling apart however, everywhere from Carson Palmer on down. His play has been mediocre at best and the running game left with McFadden. The only highlight is a snippet of pass rush which was non-existent against Green Bay. So can the Raiders entertain the home crowd with a win against a dirty team? Since both teams are near the top of the most penalized list, this should be a nice, violent game. Oakland to win at home, just cause they are at home.

New England at Denver Line: +7.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
You had to see this one coming right? I’ve been riding the Tebow train since it left the station and there is no way I’m going to stop now. Last week he stated in the after game press conference that it wasn’t “Tebow Time,” it was Bronco Time. He blamed his team for the win, taking little credit yet still has a large chunk of haters. I don’t get it. The guy is class act. He’s mind fucking the entire league. Now, if only he could play 4th quarter football the entire game. Actually, it’s not that. The Broncos pound opposing defenses with a constant running attack the first three quarters, so when the 4th comes around the defense is tired and worn out and that opens up the passing game. Hence Tebows amazing stats in the second half versus the first. Now they have one of the worst defenses rolling into town, with one of the best offenses. I fully expect coach Fox to have made the appropriate adjustments. I’d look for Tebow to be passing early, when the Patriots are expecting the run. I could be wrong, but as long as the Denver defense keeps up the pressure on Brady I see the Broncos prevailing here. The Patiots nearly gave the game away to the Redskins last week, because of the horrid defense. The Broncos are playing much better than the Skins. Doesn’t matter, Denver to win at home.

Cleveland at Arizona Line: -6.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Meh. Who cares? Ok, fine. The Cardinals surprised pretty much everyone last week beating the Niners. I’m thinking that was more of a lapse on the Niners than the Cardinals (who are still inexplicably in the playoff hunt) stepping up. The fact is, Larry Fitzgerald is a beast. The dude was catching balls that should not have been caught by any normal human being. Without him, Arizona does not win that game or even compete. It’s not like Kolb or Skelton are throwing bullets like Rodgers. Especially Skelton, who still has issues with control. The Browns are terrible, which is unfortunate because at the beginning of the season they didn’t look that terrible, especially on defense. But you know what, considering that neither of these teams is especially good on either side of the ball, I’m taking my Browns to win. Just cause.

Baltimore at San Diego Line: +1.0
This is an interesting game. The Ravens are fighting with the Steelers for control of the division. Plus, Ray Lewis comes back this week, which should step up the defense of the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Chargers are playing like they should have been all season, once again busting out in December to make a run at the division. Well, they are two games behind the Broncos but winning. Rivers is nearly unstoppable in the month of December. Can he make the playoffs this year? Can he beat the Ravens? I say yes. I say at home, in December the Chargers will prevail in this game through sheer offensive prowess.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco Line: -2.5
Finally, a good Monday night game. Limpy McRapist (Big Ben) will be without his best (and dirtiest) defensive player – James Harrison. Harrison will be serving a one game suspension for his helmet to helmet hit on Colt McCoy last week. The Steelers struggled against the Browns, unable to really punch in a running game. The Browns were unable to stop the pass attack late in the game when Ben came back into the game. The Niners lost to the Cardinals, and I still haven’t figured out why. For what I can tell, it was because Fitzgerald was taller than everyone in the Niners secondary. That will be the case again against the Steelers secondary and while the Niners can stop the run, they might have some trouble against the passing attack of the Steelers. I know the Niners are favored in this game, but they might be a bit on the relax in the back of their heads due to already clinching the division. Steelers to win on the road.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 14

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Doesn't matter who wins. They'll lose to the Packers anyway.

Only four weeks left in the NFL season. The first of many tears has already started to fall from my baby blue eyes. Not just because the NFL is going to be done soon, but because I have to put up with constant NBA highlights. I was really hoping that the NBA would not be coming back, but it is. At least there is hockey and baseball starts in April. I’m thinking too far ahead. For now, we still have four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs to get through. Which means I have a column of picks to write.

Last week I didn’t do fabulous, but it was a positive week. I’m 63% on the season, which is pretty good but not as good as I want. Time to buck up and really think about these picks. Or not think about these picks. I doubt all the people at work who do better than me on their picks every other week really do much analysis. Maybe I over analyze. I have no idea. That takes too much thought to determine if I’m applying too much thought.

In more personal news, I’m currently looking for strong freelance or even part-time(ish) for hire gigs. Writing, editing, content producing, whatever. So you have a need or know someone who does, please have them contact me. That was a link. Directly to email. That’s how I roll. I’m open to anything, anywhere, any bat channel, any bat time. Enough of that, on with the picks!

Featured Game

New York at Dallas Line: -3.5
The 6-6 Giants roll in to face the 7-5 Cowboys in their first meeting this season (can you believe that?) The table for this dinner isn’t set yet, since they still have to play again in week 17. Basically it’s like this, the winner of this series is the one that makes the playoffs from this division. I’m guessing both of these teams finish 10-6. Which means what for this prediction? It means that the Giants win this week and Dallas wins the next match-up in New York? I guess that’s what it means. Which means divisional record is the tie breaker. At the beginning of the season I picked the Cowboys to win the division, and I’m sticking with that. However, I think they way the Giants played against the Packers and all season is much more impressive than the Cowboys. To this point, and this week – the Giants win. Needless to say, I’ll probably be picking the Cowboys in week 17. Giants on the road by a field goal or less.

 

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: -14.0
For some reason I picked Cleveland last week. As a lifelong Browns fan I should have known better that even at home, they weren’t going to beat their former incarnation in the Ravens. Instead, they got pistol whipped like they were wandering the streets of Cincinnati. The Ravens worked them in every aspect of the game, there were no bright points. It was sad. It’ll be even sadder this week as they visit Pittsburgh. Traditionally, the Steeler vs. Browns match-up is a good game, but there is so much disparity between these two teams over the last couple years that there is no doubt that the Steelers will dominate the Browns. After watching the Steelers run, pass and score at will against the Bengals last week, the Browns don’t stand a chance. Steelers at home.

Houston at Cincinnati Line: -1.0
The Texans are continuously overcoming serious injuries to keep in the game for the playoffs. They have the Titans to watch for, at only two games behind, but they are playing pretty well considering. Yates isn’t terrible and held it together after Johnson was sidelined again this season. The victory over the Falcons was a win for the defense as well, missing Mario Williams. In a year this defense (overall) went from 30th to second. Good job Wade Phillips. The Bengals, while still looking average on both sides of the ball, couldn’t get past the true division test in the Steelers and Ravens. They’ll miss the playoffs. But the Dalton to Green connection is getting exciting to watch. I’m down with that for the future. I think Houston rolls in this week and pulls off a mild upset to secure their spot in the playoffs. Houston on the road.

Minnesota at Detroit Line: -0.0
The downfall of the Lions has almost been as exciting to watch as their surprise start to the season. Schwartz doesn’t seem to care that his team (even without Suh) is committing penalty after penalty, a lot of them in the area of personal fouls. Morons. Their drubbing by the Saints knocked them off the shelf of elite teams for good this season. They really can’t turn it around. The Saints showed that simple double coverage on Megatron really mucks up the offense. Minnesota has a competent defense and I think they can do the same. Losing last week to the Denver Tebows was tough, but the offense turned the ball over at some crucial moments. This should be an interesting game, and I think that if Detroit keeps up it’s penalty ridden ways, the Vikings win this game. Otherwise the Lions win. Do I have to pick a winner with a zero line? Fine. Detroit at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee Line: +4.0
The Titans aren’t out the playoff hunt yet, but they are hoping they continue to be underestimated. Now that CJ2K is finally finding the holes to punch through, they have stepped up their game a notch. 153 yards and two TD’s against Buffalo, and a week before also racking up huge yards it’s undeniable that Johnson is back. Hasselbeck is playing better, finding targets but still managing to throw it to the defense every once in a while. Finding those holes against the Saints defense might prove to be difficult, and they’ll need to if they hope to keep up with the offense. I’m taking the Saints in this game just cause they are the much better team, but I expect the Titans to make it interesting.

Philadelphia at Miami Line: -3.0
Aside from the Lions the other most exciting collapse to watch is that of the Eagles. McCoy is having a great season on the ground, but it doesn’t matter. Vince Young throws interception after interception and Vick can never get the game moving like he promised. It’s a disaster in Philly. Will Andy Reid be out of a job at the end of the season even considering his winning history with the team? Vick was a mistake. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, previously undrafted, will have every right to ask for a nice new contract at the end of the season, regardless of the coach. Assuming he keeps winning. They could finish 8-8, which considering their start would be great for the Dolphins. Reggie Bush has found new life in Miami and I think the Philly defense doesn’t put the brakes on the Dolphins winning ways. Fins to win at home.

Kansas City at NY Jets Line: -9.0
A 38 yard hail mary mixed in with terrible offense, terrible defense and a non-existent running game created a win. An improbable win, but a win and a loss for the Bears. The Chiefs are treading water, with no chance at a winning season and just a sad, sad year. The Jets shouldn’t have a problem with the visiting team this week, since unlike the Bears their team is more than just two guys. Of course, the Jets are the kings of week to week inconsistency on defense and offense, but if even one of those sides sparks just a bit, the win should come easy. Jets to win at home.

New England at Washington Line: +9.0
The difference between the Packers defense and the Patriots defense is turnover margin. While both allow a good chunk of scoring, the Packers defense forces a lot of turnovers that result, either directly or indirectly (in the hands of the offense) in points. The Patriots defense is horrid, making the Colts look moderately good in the passing game last week. This is going to cost them in the playoffs, when they have to face teams like the Ravens or Steelers that can easily take advantage of those defensive holes. I think even Washington this week takes advantage and keeps the game close. while they lost their shoes to the Jets, for the first half of the game they looked like they were in it. Obviously, Patriots to win these week, but they don’t make it look easy.

Atlanta at Carolina Line: +3.0
Cam Newton, rookie of the year? That’s the consideration, though wouldn’t the biggest an impact a player could have on a team be winning? He’s doing a little bit of that, but the best that the Panthers can hope for is a third place finish in the division. The future looks bright for this team and if they can beat Atlanta this week, perhaps the immediate future will look real bright. The Falcons lost against Houston with the inability to run against that defense and a late penalty killed the tying drive. The Panthers don’t have that strong of a defense, and while they whipped up on the Bucs last week, that was the Bucs. Look for the Panthers to come out on all cylinders, but the Falcons to prevail late or in overtime. Falcons to win.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville Line: +1.0 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Chance are that wherever you are in the country this game will be blacked out, thank your lucky stars for that. The Jaguars seemed like they could get something together after inexplicably beating the Ravens but never did. Getting whupped by the Chargers on Monday night was just another nail in the coffin for Del Rio. What? Del Rio is already gone? Oh. Yeah. MJD will run all over the Bucs. This is the point in the season where it gets hard to pick game cause the match-ups are either too good, or too shitty to care about. Let’s be analytical here though. The Bucs run defense, as Carolina proved, is shit. That’s the ONE highlight of the Jags. Jags to win at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore Line: -17.0
For a team that competed with the Patriots, a seventeen point line has got to be an insult right? Well, consider that while the Patriots have shitty pass defense, the Ravens have a superior pass and rush defense. Now that Flacco has finally learned to hand the ball to Ray Rice more often, the Ravens are looking unstoppable. I mean, at for the moment. The playoffs could be another issue altogether. The Colts, in their “suck for luck” campaign have some hope in Dan Orlovsky – just kidding. Remember him from the 0-16 Lions? Yeah, that’s probably some bad karma right there. I’d be surprised if Peyton is even on the Colts staff next year and not working the sideline with his brother as a QB coach or something. Ravens to win.

Chicago at Denver Line: -3.5 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I realize that this isn’t a true upset special, as the line favors the Broncos – but no one else does. Many of us who have man love for Tim Tebow are rooting for the Broncos, but the haters are just waiting for him to fail. If he makes it to the playoffs (and he will) they’ll be biting their lips waiting to see if he blows it. And if he does (he won’t) they’ll accuse him of not being clutch or whatever. The haters (including Elway) will find a way to bring Tebow down. But he won’t have any of it. It’s not about him, and he’s made that clear. Last week it was about him in the second half though, with 202 yards passing and 2 TD’s. He only rushed four times during the game. Surprised? The Bears will be too. John Fox has done an excellent job adjusting the offense to his QB’s strengths, rather than forcing him to learn a new system mid-season. Coach of the year for sure. Meanwhile, Martz as offensive coordinator for the Bears has done a shitty job adjusting anything for the constantly struggling Caleb Hanie. His “west coast” offense is not eay for a rookie to pick up, much less mid-season. Perhaps Cutler comes back this game, perhaps not but with Forte out for the season most likely – the Bears are done. Doesn’t matter, I was going to pick the Broncos no matter what. Broncos at home.

San Francisco at Arizona Line: +4.0
With a month to go in the season, the Niners have already locked up the division, even though technically Arizona and the Seahawks are in the wild-card hunt (is the NFC that bad this year?) That being said, while Arizona pulled off an improbable victory against the Cowboys, attempting to do that against the Niners is going to be a bit more difficult. The Niners defense is tighter than a… I’ll leave that metaphor to your imagination. The Cardinals won by finding the glaring holes in the Cowboys run defense and because Romo sucks. The Niners keep winning on great defense and killer passing from young Alex Smith who is on his way to the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Niners to win.

Oakland at Green Bay Line: -11.5
Meh. The Packers might toy with the Raiders for a little while, letting them score some points. The defense might give up some points, but they can score too. The Raiders have been decimated with injuries and penalties. That ass kicking they took at the hands of the Dolphins also helped them lose their standing in the division. They aren’t out of it yet, but they are this week. The Packers are unstoppable, especially by an inferior team like the Raiders. Should be fun for Palmer, just cause he gets to meet Rodgers, the QB that Palmer could have been had he been just a tad better. Packers to win.

Buffalo at San Diego Line: -7.0
What to say about the Bills? I think the loss of Fred Jackson hurt this team more than previously assumed. Spiller has been carrying the load, and doing alright, but the offense hasn’t been the same. Not to mention the defense suddenly giving up big plays late in the game. Last week against the Titans they gave up tons of yards to CJ2K and while the Chargers don’t have explosive a runner, Tolbert isn’t terrible in the backfield. The question for the Chargers is the consistency, something that hasn’t been there. Breaking a six game losing streak the Chargers now absolutely have to win to think about breaking even for the season. I’m taking the Bills in this game just because I don’t think the Chargers are for real this season. I could be wrong, because the Chargers have “charged” up late in the season in previous seasons, only to fall short come the playoffs. But those charges were contingent on the Broncos losing, which I don’t think they are going to do. Bills to somehow prevail on the road.

St. Louis at Seattle Line: -0.0
Meh. The Rams are nothing short of terrible, and the Seahawks somehow still have a chance at making the playoffs. They beat the Eagles, but so what? The Rams shouldn’t be much of a challenge, but who knows with this team? Taking the home team cause it’s easy. Seahawks at home.

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Digital Dads NFL Pre-Game: Week 13

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Tebowing. All the kids are doing it.

How was your Thanksgiving? Did the themed post last week do you right? I sure hope so. I went a mildly exciting 11-5 in my picks last week. That brings me to 64% on the season, so that’s not too shabby. Another couple good weeks and I could easily be up around 67%. That’s important to me. Well, now that we are at Week 13, some of my playoff predictions are looking like they are coming true, some other ones are looking like complete busts. I do what I can.

So once again, the big talk this week is about Tim Tebow winning another game, this time against the struggling Chargers. How is Norv Turner still a coach in the NFL? The guy is terrible. The Denver defense has to be given full credit for giving Tebow the opportunity (several times) to win the game. I don’t think it’s just a matter of “stepping up,” I think that these guys, Von Miller and crew, are just getting that much better. With the defense performing as it is, and Tebow being Tebow and coach Fox running with it, it would not surprise me if the Broncos steal the division from the Raiders.

This is the part of the season where it gets really hard to make accurate picks, mostly because there are teams I WANT to win so other teams miss the playoffs. This causes me, and many other pundits, to make mistakes with the picks and over analyze things. Whatever. I picked Miami to beat the Cowboys last week. They lost by one fucking point. But had they won, I would have looked like a freaking genius. Now you see why I can’t pick against Tim Tebow the rest of the year, the same reason why his haters can’t stop hating. They are worried that if they do, their hate will be proven right after they’ve switched sides.

Featured Game

Denver at Minnesota Line: -1.0
What can I say? Tebow is the real deal. I pointed out last week that his stats were better than Elway in his first eight games. He plays on Sunday, yet the haters still line up to bring him down. The guy plays for his team, and as proven by a recent locker room speech, is an inspiration. In fact, I just made my own Tebow to sit on my desk and inspire me all day long. He’s humble, hard working and giving. In every interview he credits his team for the wins, rather than himself, and that’s true. The defense has stepped up lately, notching them another win. So now they travel to face the Vikings, who are doing horribly under another rookie QB, but one that is getting the accolades that Tebow isn’t because he’s a better passer – but he’s losing! Ponder isn’t terrible, and he’s developing a rythm with his receivers, but it’s not enough. And with Peterson injured (he’s best to stay injured to avoid risking further injury) the Vikings are done. Their defense can still stand up, but that’s not enough, not against the Tebow magic. I can’t pick against him at this point. Whatever it is, he’s got it. Broncos to win on the road.

Tailgate City (The Rest)

Philadelphia at Seattle Line: +2.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
The Eagles are done. Put a fork in them. Andy Reid will be out of a job next year and whomever gave that huge contract to Vick should be shot in the thigh. Vince Young has been under center the last two games, and while he hasn’t been doing terrible, it hasn’t been enough. Getting torn apart by the Patriots last week didn’t help. The Seahawks suffered a similar fate, simply rolling over on defense and playing like a limp rag. This team has just given up, and that was evident on the offensive side of the ball. No running game, absolutely no deep passing game either. Thankfully, this match-up means nothing and it’s on Thursday night, so I don’t even have to watch it. Eagles to win by a narrow margin. Though I want to pick the Hawks, just so the Eagles sink further.

Tennessee at Buffalo Line: -1.5
The Titans are not out of it yet. They still have a slight chance to keep winning and beat out Houston, provided the Texans lose a few games. I don’t think that is going to happen though. The Titans played a terrible game last week with tons of turnovers and sloppy play by Hasselbeck. I don’t think he does good in the weather. They gave the Bucs every chance to win. I really think they should give Jake Locker the ball for the rest of the season, especially this week out in the cold at Buffalo. The Bills are off to a disappointing finish, all but eliminated from the playoffs after a hot start. Winning against the Jets would have helped, but one stupid penalty and two dropped TD passes by Stevie Johnson (elite receiver you are not) gave the Jets time to come back and win. However, I still think the Bills are a good team, they just need to get their shit together. They win this week at home against the Titans.

Kansas City at Chicago Line: -7.5
This is the part of the season where I don’t feel that a 3000 word column is necessary for some of these teams. Like the Chiefs. Clearly, they are not where they want to be this year with Cassel injured and Palko at the helm. However, the rest of the team hasn’t exactly stepped up, until last week. The defense held the Steelers to a mere 16 points. That’s pretty good. Sadly, some pussy ass play calling (kicking a field goal from the Steelers 22 yard line) kept the Chiefs down. They know they are done, but the NFL won’t let them just roll over and die. Speaking about rolling over and dying, are the Bears done? Hopefully Cutler tapes up his finger and gets back in there, cause Hanie seems to enjoy throwing to the wrong team. Turnovers killed the Bears last week against the Raiders, but their defense did what it could, keeping the Raiders kicking field goals. This week, they get a respite though. Bears at home.

Oakland at Miami Line: -3.0
The Raiders are one game, one measly little game ahead of the Broncos for the AFC West. Can they hold out and take the division? Their performance against the struggling Bears was no indicator. Once in the redzone, the offense was lethargic at best. Their defense kept the Bears in the game, giving up just enough. It wasn’t a dominating performance. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had a strong showing against the much superior Cowboys but left Romo too much time at the end to drive for a game winning field goal. The Dolphins lost by one point, but the defense was strong, intercepting Romo twice. Miami is favored in this game, and I don’t think it’s too wild to suggest that they will in fact, win it. Miami at home.

Indianapolis at New England Line: -21.0
Yeah, Patriots by a bunch. Upset special! Just kidding. This classic annual match-up has no steam this year. It’s Painter vs. Brady in a showdown that will resemble Rocky vs. a hanging side of beef. The beef is gonna get tenderized. If you have any Patriots players on your fantasy team, even second stringers, play them. Some might hope that the Colts put up a fight, try to look strong but as proven last week against Carolina, they are just done. Suck for Luck right? Pats at home.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Line: -7.0
Last time the Bengals met the Steelers it was on their turf and guess what? They lost. They roll in after (get this) a tough win at home against the Browns. Dalton looked good, but the Browns played them tough and almost pulled off the upset, riding a tie until the last seconds. The Bengals are a surprisingly winning team, but they have benefited from not playing the Steelers or Ravens until the end of the year. Which is what is happening now. The Steelers played a tough game against the hapless Chiefs and (get this) barely won. They did though, and that’s all that matters. Expect more of the same in this game, Ben being shoved to the ground plenty, dusting off and throwing a TD to Wallace. Steelers are still too tough overall for the Bengals. The Bengals best bet is to run the ball right at the front line, who haven’t been the best against the run this year. AJ Green does have that star factor that can change a game, but I think the Steelers win out in the end. Steelers at home.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Line: -3.0
I was laughing out loud at the way the Bucs performed last week. One second, they were causing turnovers, the next they were turning the ball over. It was disgusting and laughable. Which is why I was laughing. Bucs fans have got to be frustrated with the way this team is performing, they have so many good weapons and a young defense (save for Barber,) they should be firing on all cylinders and competing with the Falcons and the Saints for the division. But they aren’t. At the beginning of the season I predicted them to make the playoffs. I’d like to amend that, and say the Panthers, who whupped up on the Colts last week, will finish ahead of the Bucs – placing them dead last. Which means the Bucs will lose the rest of their games and the Panthers won’t. Starts right here. Strong offense from Cam Newton (I would say Rookie MVP, but he’s not winning and Tebow is) will take this one from the Bucs, who won’t be able to keep up or stop the run. Panthers to win on the road.

NY Jets at Washington Line: +3.0
The Jets are still in the hunt for the playoffs after sneaking past the Bills last week, who had every opportunity to win that game. But they didn’t and now the Jets really need to get their shit together and win. They can do that at Washington if they can keep Helu in check and not piss off Grossman. Did you see him against the Seahawks last week? They challenged his shit and he drove right back down the field and made the Seahawks defense look the fool. I didn’t see that coming. Grossman can be good when he wants. The Jets defense, once the most glorious in the league is getting beat on the corners, which is odd cause that’s where their best defensive guys are. The secondary steps up, the Jets win easy. Jets to win on the road.

Atlanta at Houston Line: +3.0
Either Atlanta was toying with the vikings last week or they really did have some problems in the secondary. While the score wasn’t close in the end, and the Falcons had a great goal line stand, they allowed the Vikings to stage a comeback with some deep passing. Thankfully, the Texans are down to their third string QB in Yates and have Kellen Clemens waiting just in case Yates gets injured too. This team can’t catch a break. First Johnson, then Foster, now Schaub and Leinart. Good news for Houston, the Colts still suck. They still have the Titans nipping at their heels though. I think Atlanta takes this game just cause Matt Ryan plays like Aaron Rodgers when he’s in air conditioning. Falcons on the road, but Houston is not out of it yet.

Baltimore at Cleveland Line: +7.0 UPSET SPECIAL??
I haven’t picked an upset special yet. Could this be it? The Browns came out fighting last week against the Bengals and actually looked like they could have won, and should have. But they didn’t, losing another close game and sending the happy Bengals to Pittsburgh to lose this week. The Ravens and the Steelers are going to end up having an all out brawl for the playoffs, and the Browns are that little bug that’s in the way. They have a real chance to play spoiler right now, and I really, really want to pick them. I was just about to talk myself out of doing so, but the Ravens lost to the freaking Seahawks. Sure, they won last week, beating the second best team in the NFC. So they are hot and cold. Is this a cold week? Obviously I’m trying to talk myself into picking the Browns as this weeks upset special. Ugh. Yes, I’m picking the Browns to upset. I’ll probably regret it, but I have to.

Green Bay at NY Giants Line: +7.5
The New York Football Giants got rocked by the Saints last week. Just absolutely destroyed. Both sides of the ball the Giants weren’t playing well, though there were some bright spots with the receivers. Cruz had another good game, but turnovers and a severe lack of defense kept them from keeping in the game. But hey, they beat the Patriots right? Can they play spoiler for Green Bay? I really don’t think so. The one thing that Green Bay needed work on was the defense, and they are getting a bit better, ready for the playoffs. Magic number is three (games to win or Niners to lose) to shore up home field advantage. Green Bay is too good for the Giants, but they Giants will hang in there. Packers to win on the road.

Dallas at Arizona Line: +4.5
The Cowboys, as I predicted at the beginning of the year, are going to win the NFC East. Mark my words, do whatever you have to do. They aren’t playing lights out football, and certainly had a battle against Miami, but they are winning and that’s all that matters. With the Giants sucking a big loss and facing Green Bay this week, the Cowboys have the chance to put more distance between them and the only other team that can compete in the division. That would be the Giants. The Cowboys are offensively strong and only on defense are they showing some weakness, oh, and Romo from time to time. Traveling to Arizona shouldn’t be much of an issue though, and the defense should be able to get plenty of practice against Skelton and crew. Note to the Cowboys special teams though – do not kick directly to Patrick Peterson. Dallas to win on the road.

St. Louis at San Francisco Line: -14.0
Rams suck. I mean, really suck. They might have more wins, but they make the Colts look like a good team. Too many mistakes, dropped passes, poor pass protection, no running game (with Stephen Jackson even!) Not to mention the defense and special teams. Ugh. Niners to win. Done.

Detroit at New Orleans Line: -9.0
With Suh suspended for two games (should be the rest of the season to teach that guy a lesson) the Detroit defense is taking another hit. As dirty as he is, he’s good and is a strong reason why that defense did well for a little while. Lately, they’ve been playing with more aggression than skill and after watching the Packers pick them apart, I have little faith that they’ll be able to stop the Saints offense. Too many weapons, too much time for Drew Brees and too many awesome coaches on crutches on the sidelines. Either way, I think it’s just about time to stick in a fork in Detroit. Saints at home easy.

San Diego at Jacksonville Line: +3.0
This is the Monday night game? I’d rather someone give me a Sandusky Special. Well, maybe not, but either way – this game is shit. The Chargers are on a very special losing streak because it could be the last for Norv Turner, who should have been fired 100 games ago. Meanwhile, the Jags pulled rookie Gabbart last week in favor of Luke McCown then finally fired Jack Del Rio, then sold the team and now might move. Turmoil indeed! This is a match-up that no-one gives a shit about, which is why it’s probably the most unpredictable. The Chargers HAVE to win in order to even think about the playoffs. The Jags could really give a shit at this point, which makes them dangerous. I don’t think the Chargers, traveling from coast to coast, will be able to stop the run. MJD and the Jags win at home on Monday night.

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