So I started the season off a paltry 8-8. That’s pretty lame, but better than most experts. That’s not an excuse, I plan to do better. Being right is very important to me. I’m shooting for at least 65% in correct picks this year, not including the playoffs. We’ll see. In other news, all three of my fantasy teams lost, thanks to lousy QB and Defense choices. What the hell? Remember, all predictions right or they aren’t. Nothing on the island is real.
Cleveland at Indianapolis Line: +3.0
This game is my featured game not because I’m a total Cleveland Browns honk, but because of the Colts. The Colts have made the playoffs with 10 or more wins since 2002. It’s a streak that no team has matched. It’s a streak that will become Peyton’s legacy. It’s a streak that is in jeopardy. I know that I could be way off on this, but Doug Flutie isn’t waiting in the wings to save this team. Kerry Collins sure as shit ain’t gonna do it, not after the drubbing he took against the Texans last week. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Colts start Painter. The home fans are not going to like a fumbling Kerry Collins, I think they’ll be a bit more lenient with a rookie QB. Though it’s too bad that the Colts don’t really have much of a running game right now, because that’s where the Browns are showing they are lacking. The Browns let the Bungles get the best of them with two late game big plays as their front line seemed to tire. Losing to the hapless Bungles was not a good start for the Browns, but I think they can bounce back on the road this week assuming their defense steps the hell up. I can see either team winning this game, but I’m going to give it to Cleveland edging the Colts late.
Tailgate City (The Rest)
Oakland at Buffalo Line: -4.0
How about those Bills eh? Who the hell saw that coming? I attribute their win to the switch back to the classic red white and blue uniforms. That has to be it right, because KC was supposed to be this crazy offensive powerhouse? Right? Well, they were offensive all right and the Bills took full advantage, doing it on offense and defense. They actually looked good. This week, they welcome the Raiders to town, who squeaked by the Broncos in their home opener. A week earlier I might have picked the Raiders to win this game, but man, the Bills looked pretty damn good. Let’s see if they can do it at home. Bills with the points.
Kansas City at Detroit Line: -8.0
As mentioned above, the Chiefs had a complete breakdown on both sides of the ball. It was a terrible week for me to start both Matt Cassel and the Chiefs defense in Fantasy football. Really, who the hell saw that coming? They sucked. Now, it’s quite possible there was some rust to shake off as they got over the offseason troubles and it might take them a couple games to get back to form. I think they’ll do better against the Lions on the road, but it won’t be enough. The Lions dominated the Bucs last week, and even though the final score was close – the game wasn’t. The Bucs aren’t a bad team, they are a sleeper playoff pick for sure. The Lions offensive attack was too much for the Bucs secondary, and their defense was solid. Not a crazy good performance by the defense, but good enough to win. The keys to beating the Chiefs will be protecting Stafford and keeping the Chiefs run game contained. That being said, they’ll do that. Lions at home to win.
Baltimore at Tennessee Line: +4.0
Sometimes I watch games and totally regret picking a team, or thinking about picking a team at all. The Titans were that team. Are you kidding me? Hasselbeck was totally inconsistent and the Titans defense wasn’t even playing the same game as the Jags offense. They made the Jags look damn good, and gave Jones-Drew plenty of room to trash their defensive line. I don’t expect them to be able to hold off the Ravens, who smacked around the Raiders defense last week. There is no way the Titans will win this game, but hell – any given Sunday and what not. But I’m not picking against them. They are too strong. Ravens to win on the road, with the points.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota Line: -3.0 UPSET SPECIAL!!
I can understand how some people are favoring the Vikings in this game, they do have Adrian Peterson and the special teams play of Percy Harvin, but the Buccaneers are actually a good defensive team this year and slipped up a bit against the Lions. The key to this game is going to be special teams. The Bucs have never been strong on either side of the special teams coin, so the Vikings will have to take advantage with the runbacks, if there are any in the dome. Other than that, slam with the run and don’t put McNabb into too many pressure situations. However, the Vikings will still have to keep up with the young Bucs offense. I’m giving this one to the Bucs on the road, to upset the Vikings.
Chicago at New Orleans Line: -7.0
The Saints got whupped by Green Bay in the season opener. Yes, the game appeared close at the end, but I think that Sean Peyton has to realize that everyone is familiar with his bag of tricks now. He’s not tricky anymore. Brees is still a great QB, and their running game is amazing, but good defenses can see through that and around it and what not. And the Bears have a good defense. I’m not saying that the Bears are going to beat the Saints on defense alone, but this should be a good game to watch because it is the Saints offense vs. the Bears Defense. It’ll be interesting to see if the Saints can beat the spread, but I am taking them to rack up the most points and win.
Jacksonville at NY Jets Line: -10.0
So the Jets eke out a win against the Cowboys and are suddenly ten point favorites against the Jags? Give me a break. The Jets are a good team, but they have a lot of problems. Sanchez still doesn’t look confident in the pocket and it took the defense at least three and a half quarters to get moving and make some game changing, er, saving plays against the Cowboys. Whatever. I’m still not sold on this Jets team, so you won’t hear me chanting. However, I’m not sold on the Jags either, so I can see how the Jets are so well favored at home. I don’t really like saying this, but the Jets are going to win this game because, well, Luke McCown has yet to see what a real defense looks like.
Seattle at Pittsburgh Line: -12.5
Last year the Steelers defense was full of veteran players. This year, the Steelers defense is full of veteran players. What’s the difference? Well, it’s the difference between a grandparent and a great-grandparent. Their veteran status showed, in what will probably be their toughest loss this year. That won’t be the norm for this team, a team that adapts very well to changing situations, like prohibition. Either way, the weakest link against the Ravens last week was the offense. Seven turnovers. That’s just all kinds of pathetic. So this week they are at home and they get Tavaris “I still have a job” Jackson and the Seahawks. The NFC West sucks balls. Steelers to win easy.
Arizona at Washington Line: -4.0
This is probably one of the better matchups this week. You might not think so on paper, but the explosive play of Beanie Wells in the Arizona running game paired with their high falutin’ wide receivers and this could be a very high scoring game. On the other side, the Redskins got lucky last week against the Giants. I don’t think they beat them because they are a good team, I think it was because the Giants played like shit. The Redskins will compete this year, but they will struggle with it all season long. This week however, I think they pull off a win. The NFC West sucks balls.
Green Bay at Carolina Line: +10.0
Cam Newton had a record breaking rookie debut, and lost. Run that by me again. Cam Newton, throws for over 400 yards and two TD’s and lost? Oh yeah, that’s cause he plays for the Carolina Panthers. They have no running game, they have a defense made up of sticks and leftovers. They have Cam Newton. Whoopdie freaking doo. This line should be +30 for Carolina because Green Bay is going to use this team for target practice. And Newton was up against the Cardinals defense last week, which is like one of those cute little smart cars, where the Packers defense is like one of those two story bulldozers. Cam, meet Clay Matthews. Packers with the points.
Dallas at San Francisco Line: +3.0
Did the Niners open the season with a win? They sure did. Did the Cowboys blow a 14 point lead and suck big hairy nuts? They sure did. It appears to me that Romo spends the fourth quarter on the fucking golf course and not in the goddamn game. This pisses me off because I hate the Cowboys, so I want to see them get beat, but not throw the game away because they can’t hold on to the damn ball or punt properly at home with the giant TV screen. So now they travel to San Fran to meet the Niners, who I’d say are red hot but they are still the Niners and have tons of problems that are yet to be determined if they are fixed. But shit, they are in the NFC West, which sucks balls, but I’m taking the Niners to upset the Cowboys and upset Jerry Jones.
Cincinnati at Denver Line: -5.5
Oh man the Broncos were terrible Monday night. So this should be the perfect home opener. They welcome the Bungles to town, who with two monster plays against the tired Browns defense notched their first win of the season. It should be a rare win though, I don’t see the Bungles ratcheting up the wins with Andy Dalton, er, Bruce Gradkowski at the helm. Neither guy gives them a chance to win at this point. Carson Palmer would, but he’s still retired. Until the Colts find a way to hire him. Anyway, I’m getting tired so I’m taking Denver to win at home, but it’s going to come off a late field goal or something like that.
Houston at Miami Line: +3.0
Houston will win this game. Here’s why, their defense is good. Did you watch the Colts game? Yes, Collins made mistakes but that’s because the defense got to him and applied the pressure. Remember, that offensive line of the Colts is good, they protect Manning. So I credit that to the pass rush of the Texans. Miami won’t be able to fare much better against that pass rush, Henne is going to be running around like a headless chicken. Houston is going to make a strong push for the playoffs this year, and with Manning out of the way already, all they have to do is win. Defense wins games. Houston on the road.
San Diego at New England Line: -6.5
Tom Brady threw for what, 2 billion yards against Miami? Now at home against San Diego? I’m thinking he should throw for at least another 2 billion. If you have Brady as your fantasy QB, then you are probably going to win your league this year. I’m just going to say it now, the Patriots are going 16-0, or at least 15-1. This team is going to be close to unbeatable. Oh wait, I already said that in my AFC predictions. I think I predicted the Bills to be the lone upset. So since the Chargers aren’t the Bills, I’ll just save you all the trouble of having to read some babble about how the Chargers aren’t playing to their potential and never seem to be. Patriots to win at home. With the points.
Philadelphia at Atlanta Line: +1.0
Even though Vick and the Eagles found a way to beat the Rams, it wasn’t with Vicks arm. It was on defense. Vick still is not a good QB, I don’t care what anyone says about the guy. He’s too quick to go for the out, he doesn’t let plays develop and only shines on the deep pass. So what happens when he’s up against the Atlanta defense who likes to dive in with the crazy pass rush? He’s going to run out of the pocket and try to carry the game on his legs. So what happens when the Falcons put a dedicated LB on him and flush him out of the pocket? Is he going to look for his slant receiver or an outlet pass to the running back? Throw the ball away? No, he’s going to do something stupid. I can’t wait for him to be outed as a sub-par QB and everyone gets off the Vick Train. That being said, the Falcons are no slouches. They lost to Chicago, but it was a tough game on both sides, Ryan didn’t seem to be quite in form. So I’m looking for the Falcons to bounce back and take the Eagles at home. Falcons to win.
St. Louis at NY Giants Line: -4.5 CRAPFEST OF THE WEEK!!
Notice a trend forming here with the crapfest game? So far, both of them are Monday night match-ups. Take note ESPN, you need to start paying more for games. Look at the Sunday night match-up on NBC, it kicks ass. Because they know how to bargain a fucking contract. ESPN clearly thinks they can show any two teams playing and people will tune in. Both these teams played no where near their on paper potential last week, looking like high school junior varsity squads against two NFC East opponents who may or may not be legit contenders. Bradford and Jackson both appeared to have suffered injuries during the Eagles game, but most likely will be starting. That’s good, because without those two the Rams don’t have a rats chance in hell of competing. The Giants, well, they have a laundry list of problems to work out. Do they have an offensive line? I didn’t see one against Washington. Eli plays much better when protected from the pass rush. Whatever, I’m taking the Giants at home on a gut shot guess.